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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
esmufc07 said:
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Isn’t that risky. She’d need the votes to reform government and seeing as her Brexit would probably be in the Queen’s Speach it would either pass or they would not have a government.

It’d be a very risky move but would be saying my deal or a General Election.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/19/uk-unemployment-falls-brexit-jobless-rate

UK unemployment has dropped to the lowest level in more than 44 years despite mounting fears over Brexit, as employers across the country ramped up hiring at the fastest rate in more than three years.

The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s jobless rate fell to a fresh low of 3.9% in the three months to January, down from 4% a month ago, the lowest point since the start of 1975.

Companies increased their hiring activity to add another 222,000 people to the UK workforce, taking the overall number in work to a fresh record high of 32.7 million.

The surprise drop in the jobless rate came despite mounting concern that the chaos over Brexit in Westminster might have encouraged companies to freeze their hiring plans until they have greater clarity over the political situation.

John Philpott, the director of the Jobs Economist consultancy, said: “Nobody seems to have told the labour market about the mood of Brexit-related economic uncertainty which has gripped the UK since last autumn.

“These record-breaking jobs numbers seem extraordinary and suggest that only a recession-inducing hard Brexit is likely to have a noticeably negative impact on the UK’s employment situation.”
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B20 said:
A few questions - why did may not seek collaboration with Labour for a deal to begin with?

Is there any hypothetical deal that might actually have been negotiated that Parliament would ever accept?
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A cross party collaboration would have ignored the hard Brexiters in the ERG, and could have torn the Tory party in half.
 
Mogget said:
That seems fair. As long as there's an upper age limit too due to senility/dementia etc

Say 65?
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Minimum age of 40, maximum age of 45. There you go, whole country's policy decided by the unhappiest people in the country, looking after both old duffers and young idiots. Problem solved.
 
So what are the chances, percentagewise that the EU doesnt allow an extension?

They must be fed up to the back teeth with all of this from the UK and surely cant be far away from saying look just feck off.
 
When you see young people demonstrating over things like climate change & gun control, it's hard to imagine they'd do a worse job of leading let alone voting.
 
'Time is not a solution' - French Europe minister says article 50 extension without reason would be pointless
Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe ministers, was also speaking to reporters ahead of the EU general affairs council this morning. She said the uncertainty around Brexit was “unacceptable”. She went on:

We need an initiative, we need something new because if it’s an extension to remain in the same deadlock [that would be unacceptable.] How do we get out of this deadlock? This is a question for the British authorities.

[The UK] have said ‘no’ to a no deal and they have said ‘no’ to a realistic deal. Now they have to change their mind on one or the other.

Loiseau also said, if the EU does grant an article 50 extension, it would have to be for a purpose.

Grant an extension - what for? Time is not a solution, it’s a method. If there is an objective and a strategy and it has to come from London.
 
Rooney24 said:
So what are the chances, percentagewise that the EU doesnt allow an extension?

They must be fed up to the back teeth with all of this from the UK and surely cant be far away from saying look just feck off.
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The chances of at least one veto are pretty strong, but I think the big powers in Europe want to give us as long an extension as possible as they believe, probably rightly, that the wind can turn in that time and we can stay in. So it will probably depend on all the back room conversations.
 
Big-Red said:
How many of these are temporary jobs to prepare for Brexit though I wonder.
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Yeah I image its a lot, if not the majority of them.
Massive Spanner said:
Has to be the ultimate example of shooting yourself in the foot. The UK economy has been one of the world's best performing since the recession and now they're about to bollock it all up for themselves.

No doubt the brexiteer's will see articles like that and say "see, we'll be fine after we go".
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The UK economy has been shite for actually workers for a long time now but if the only plan for a Remain is telling people leaving will turn the UK in 21 days later then its not going to have much of effect if the economy on paper anyway looks fine.
 
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Big-Red said:
How many of these are temporary jobs to prepare for Brexit though I wonder.
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Things such as producing to stockpile or meet spikes in demand for goods from EU could probably account for all of the 0.1% change from last month. All of that could be reversed immediately if an extension is agreed this week or when we pass 29th next week.
 
Rooney24 said:
So what are the chances, percentagewise that the EU doesnt allow an extension?

They must be fed up to the back teeth with all of this from the UK and surely cant be far away from saying look just feck off.
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That's mostly in the hands of the UK. The major players in the EU have all signaled that an extension is fully possible provided that the UK doesn't just intend to vote over the same deal for months to come.

There might be talks and threats of a veto from one of the smaller member states, but it likely won't amount to anything.
 
pierrethesnack said:
That's mostly in the hands of the UK. The major players in the EU have all signaled that an extension is fully possible provided that the UK doesn't just intend to vote over the same deal for months to come.

There might be talks and threats of a veto from one of the smaller member states, but it likely won't amount to anything.
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It most certainly is not, given that in needs to be unanimous!
 
rcoobc said:
It most certainly is not, given that in needs to be unanimous!
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Yes, of course it's a possibility. But as far as I understad, the heads of state in the EC don't tend to use their veto unless they have considerable support, or if it's a vote they domestically speaking cannot affort to lose for political reasons.

I don't see any of those factors in play here - Slovenia probably isn't going to block an extension anchored in a majority in the EC, there is too much at stake for that. I just can't really see it happening.
 
Rooney24 said:
So what are the chances, percentagewise that the EU doesnt allow an extension?

They must be fed up to the back teeth with all of this from the UK and surely cant be far away from saying look just feck off.
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According to Katya Adler there will be an extension, its just a matter of short vs long and all of the implications that follow.

She has done a good twitter thread on it but i cant post it because im getting error messages.
 
B20 said:
A few questions - why did may not seek collaboration with Labour for a deal to begin with?
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No. Labour were never going to work with the Tories, though from a PR point of view the Tories should probably have asked.
 
Laura Kuenssberg tweets:

One source says there was no agreement in the room, another source furious that it seems PM avoiding making an actual decision again about the option she would like to take but wants option of short delay to try to find way of having another go with her deal
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Leadsom said to 'tear into' colleauges, saying 'this is now a Remain Cabinet, not a Brexit Cabinet' - and argued for leaving without a final deal at end of June
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Fear lack of decision and general anger might push govt into another confidence vote situation next week and some tories might be so angry they vote against govt or abstain - 'it's last days of Rome' says one insider
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At least Hitler reacted.
 
If May added a promise to stand down to her deal that should be change enough to satisfy Bercow on a third vote, although it wouldn't happen until the last minute. She's already said she'll stand down before the next election anyway, and there's a plan that could see her going out as a winner. And there aren't too many other ways she's going to do that.
 
Buster15 said:
And Brexit means Brexit; whatever Brexit really means...
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Breakfast, obviously. We've been through this before haven't we?
 
Leadsom, the Wicked Witch of the Westminster.
 
711 said:
If May added a promise to stand down to her deal that should be change enough to satisfy Bercow on a third vote, although it wouldn't happen until the last minute. She's already said she'll stand down before the next election anyway, and there's a plan that could see her going out as a winner. And there aren't too many other ways she's going to do that.
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How does May standing down as part of the deal change anything.

She’s the current PM, the deal outlines a huge array of agreements that have nothing to do with who the current PM is and I highly doubt that Bercow cares who the PM is or that he thinks it’s consequential in any way.
 
Pexbo said:
How does May standing down as part of the deal change anything.

She’s the current PM, the deal outlines a huge array of agreements that have nothing to do with who the current PM is and I highly doubt that Bercow cares who the PM is or that he thinks it’s consequential in any way.
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Yeah i don't see that flying either. There's a chance the EU will make the extension offer subject to another vote at Mays request to try and force the issue.

Let's not forget Bercows call can be overturned by another motion anyway so it's the DUP and her own party that May needs to convince.
 
Pexbo said:
How does May standing down as part of the deal change anything.

She’s the current PM, the deal outlines a huge array of agreements that have nothing to do with who the current PM is and I highly doubt that Bercow cares who the PM is or that he thinks it’s consequential in any way.
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I've no quotes sorry but I've read that quite a few of her own MPs are asking for her to stand down as a condition of them changing their vote. Your opinion of Bercow is as good as mine, but I think he would be chuffed to bits with her scalp on his belt, as he would see it. I'm not putting the scenario forward as probable of course, just a possible.
 
711 said:
I've no quotes sorry but I've read that quite a few of her own MPs are asking for her to stand down as a condition of them changing their vote. Your opinion of Bercow is as good as mine, but I think he would be chuffed to bits with her scalp on his belt, as he would see it. I'm not putting the scenario forward as probable of course, just a possible.
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I dunno - he is still at the end of the day a conservative MP and has been for over 20 years
I also think he will leave himself as soon as there is some brexit clarity (deal or long extension) as hes now seen as too divisive a figure to continue in that role by many MP's
 
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