Not just an MP, but, potentially, PM!
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Not just an MP, but, potentially, PM!
My guess is that she'll likely accept a Customs Union of sorts, but no Single Market access, as the chances of getting that with no FoM (which both are against) is slim to absolute zero.
So i'd imagine she'll compromise with a CU and protections of workers rights etc
I really think something positive needed to come out of the indicative votes process. Common Market 2.0 and Clarke's CU getting voted down really felt like the beginning of no deal. Parliament just needed to throw the EU a bone to persuade them of the merit of a lengthy extension.
Overall, it looks grim, although a tiny, tiny bit less grim thanks to Cooper's motion passing tonight.
Or, as i say, it could backfire big time.
EU refuse a long extension without good reason. Second referendum already ruled out via no majority, so she calls a GE. Tories could (possibly, but not definitely) get a big majority. May has already said she's stepping down either way (after deal passed, or before GE, paving the way for a hard brexiteer to become PM (Mogg, Johnson et al). Should Tories get in power, whats stopping the then hard brexiteer PM saying "screw your deal, we're out"? It's what they want, and they'd not be afraid of doing it
I thought they already voted to say no to a no deal brexit the other day
that was a non binding motion rather than a bill
Doesn't matter what they vote for, the legal default is no deal, and not even this bill tonight can stop that. If the EU refuse a long extension, then No Deal it is, unless Corbyn and May come up with something quickly
You and me both. As soon as I seem to get a grasp on the situation it changes (for the worse).
Problem is its reciprocal and the voters don't want Johnny Foreigner waltzing over 'ere.
Yes you are quite right. Indeed I'm sure that's the ERG's plan. Nothing in the political declaration is binding, so Boris/Gove/whoever can rip up the future relationship the second they get in to power, even if May does get her deal through.
Once this bill becomes law May is duty bound to request an Article 50 extension from the EU. The length of that extension request will ultimately be set by Parliament. EU can refuse, especially if there is no substantial reason put forward by the UK as to why it should extend.
In no way does the bill rule out no deal except as explicit government policy. A default no deal remains very much in the offing and as things stand is at the discretion of the EU.
And there lies the problem.
Parliament have ruled out a second referendum, and it's very unlikely one will pass anytime soon, as there's just no numbers for it at all (barring some huge change of minds). So the EU will demand something in return for a long extension, and to them, it's either a second ref, or a general election. At the moment, May doesn't want an election, so what basis do the EU have to sanction a longer extension?
Pointless vote.
Haha did Mars Francois just complain about something winning by a slim majority.
My confusion arises from the fact that May made is public that she intends to get an extension to A50 and will work with Corbyn to secure a deal. So what was the need for this bill anyway? To force her to do something she was already going to do, which she has absolutely no control over anyway?
She could go to the EU, say to them "We need an extension" they ask why she replies "Because i've been told to ask for one" and they then ask on what grounds. She really has no grounds to ask for a longer one, and no mandate from parliament will change that
What's the general Brexit sentiment on redcafe then?
I assuming there was poll at some point.
I assuming there was poll at some point.
There is a poll in this very thread that conveys the Caf sentiment nicely.
I was referring to the general Remain v Leave split, but no matter.
And as nice as the Caf sentiment is I struggle to see what people can learn from it given that it's not reflective of the general population.
Well, sod all. Parliament has to pass something amenable, which has a fair(ish) chance of occurring as the pressure of the leave date looms ever closer. If not Parliament is going to be left with the decision of no deal or revoke. I'm not certain what the outcome would be in that scenario but I imagine 'disastrous exit' is a handy favourite.
UK Parliament
Thank you, that makes sense.
There’s more Remain support in here than Leave.
I haven’t seen a post put forward a convincing argument for Leave yet.
I think it is reflective of the general population. Had the youth who are overwhelmingly remain bothered to vote in the referendum then it wouldn't have been close.
Whilst I think it's accurate to claim to say that Remain is ahead in the polls and has been for some months, I don't think the poll above is reflective of the wider population as you say. One look at the results for Revoking Art 50 and a Confirmatory Ballot is testament to that.
The reason I asked the original question is that I've only recently received the ten likes required to contribute to the CE section. Prior to that I tended not to spend that much time reading the threads within it.
Ahh, if only those who weren't that bothered had been more...bothered. I'm increasingly of the view that there's more of a case for raising the voting age than lowering it.
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That would make no sense at all. What our future looks like decades years from now should be decided by those who are going to be alive during it.
18-24: 64%
25-39: 65%
40-54: 66%
55-64: 74%
65+: 90%
http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstit...d-the-Gap--Brexit-the-Generational-Divide.pdf
25-39: 65%
40-54: 66%
55-64: 74%
65+: 90%
http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstit...d-the-Gap--Brexit-the-Generational-Divide.pdf
The comment was half in jest.
Increasingly prolonged adolescence and delayed adulthood makes up the serious half.
I'd seen the gap before but not registered the actual numbers. Those under-30 numbers are pretty decent, seeing that 18-year olds turned out at roughly the same rate as 50-year olds.
The killer was that literally everyone above 65 turned out. Amazing.
Edit - the class numbers are making me skeptical. Everyone aside from the rich (AB) voted Brexit, and C2DE voted for leave in overwhelming numbers (64-36). I find it hard to believe you'd reach a relatively close final figure of 52-48 with that makeup.
The tories have a long standing system of hiring buses and vans on election days and going to every retirement home to take the crusty old fecks to the polls. It's harder to do with under 65s since they haven't been stacked in giant buildings yet. The pensioner vote is well easy to get out, their families have basically abandoned them in these sterile shitholes and don't really have the time to visit them everyday. Then these charlatans come along promising the good old days and give a little trip every few years.
If you tried this with generally left leaning voters, say going to student halls to bus them to the polls it doesn't have the same effects because most younger people can make the short trip themselves, aren't always in and aren't lonely enough to be taken with anyone who gives them attention for 2 minutes.
If that's true, then for many (perhaps most) of those who still have their wits about them in these 'sterile shit-holes' Brexit may just be a nice little bit of revenge.
different source, turnout is from an LSE commissioned poll, class is from an Ashcroft commissioned poll
but yeah I see what you mean AB was 27% of the UK in 26 and C2DE was 45% in 2016
it's worth ignoring Ashcroft altogether tbh, he's a Tory propagandist and his poll results came out almost immediately, the LSE turnout one took a while hence everyone assuming the turnout for younger people was low
@berbatrick, I posted this earlier in the thread, it's the "official" version. 64% of voters who were over 65 voted leave.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
Cutting off the nose to spite the face kind of revenge. Seems adolescence spills into retirement age.
it's no surprise that older voters are more conservative, as per just about any country (happened for the marriage and abortion referendums here in Ireland too). I think the more alarming thing in that list is how many voted to leave based on their education level. Clearly the leave campaign did a much better job at getting to them than the remain campaign did.
@berbatrick, I posted this earlier in the thread, it's the "official" version. 64% of voters who were over 65 voted leave.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
@Silva's numbers are similar I think - I was astounded at the 90% turnout among older voters. I don't think I've ever seen that number anywhere in the world for any election.
I don't know about the remain campaign but a lot of remain supporters went around calling them stupid. OK its not a lie in most cases but people don't like to be labelled as such. Remain supporters aren't part of the remain campaign but in the minds of leavers they are guilty by association. Leave did a better job of appealing to them. Also I've heard the remain campaign failed to galvanise support in the less well of cities/towns because they didn't step foot there.
Yeah I think it's pretty obvious now that the remain campaign were lazy, cocky, and lackadaisical because they always thought they'd win, going by opinion polls and "surely people won't be this stupid!".