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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Are Irish citizens applying for the settled status thing? It says we don't need to but everything I've read has some weird wording about the Irish border so is it only you don't need to for crossing the Irish/UK border? Will I need the settled status to get back into England if I go on holiday after October 31st or is being an Irish citizen good to get back in? I see contradicting info and unclear language everywhere.
 
sun_tzu said:
Part of me thinks Boris will announce tomorrow that there will be a ge vote on Tuesday as the first thing
Would circumvent the no confidence motion plus basically stop any parliamentary time to force an extension
It would be straight out of the Cummings playbook
Might even skip the custom of Thursday elections and call the election on 30th ... Makes all the other parties have to say they will extend A50 within 1 day should they win
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Not possible, (or well extremely unlikely.) He'd lose the right to advise prorogation. And violate purdah etc. Conflicts with their previous moves.
 
Doesn't Parliament have to approve a PMs call for a GE? So theoretically they could block no deal + refuse a GE?
 
esmufc07 said:
Doesn't Parliament have to approve a PMs call for a GE? So theoretically they could block no deal + refuse a GE?
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Yes it needs 66% to pass, but I can't see that happening with Corbyn around. They might want to refuse it, pass legislation, then VoNC though. It'll all have been wargamed, but with each vote extremely tight I'm not sure Corbyn would risk refusing it.

Makes less sense for Boris to call it than Corbyn to refuse to vote for it.
 
owlo said:
Not possible, (or well extremely unlikely.) He'd lose the right to advise prorogation. And violate purdah etc. Conflicts with their previous moves.
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Not really... It would close parliament anyway... And the rest is just for show anyway to show he's serious about a no deal for a general election
Looks like he wants to get some conservatives to vote against no deal... Then deselect them at which point he has no majority so will have to call a ge ... But with hard brexit manifesto and only MP's who have backed that... Which just so happens to be the brexit partys demands for an election pact
Pure Cummings and probably a 50 seat majority of labour don't withdraw candidates (which they won't) for a remain alliance
Cummings might be a cnut... But he's not daft

Also purda means no change in policy can be enacted... By law it's hard brexit on 31st October
 
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Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
 
Ducklegs said:
Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
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I hope you are right but I fear that this government is so utterly corrupt/incompetent that they will drive the bus over the no deal cliff regardless. It's more of a ideology rather than a plan now.
 
sun_tzu said:
Not really... It would close parliament anyway... And the rest is just for show anyway to show he's serious about a no deal for a general election
Looks like he wants to get some conservatives to vote against no deal... Then deselect them at which point he has no majority so will have to call a ge ... But with hard brexit manifesto and only MP's who have backed that... Which just so happens to be the brexit partys demands for an election pact
Pure Cummings and probably a 50 seat majority of labour don't withdraw candidates (which they won't) for a remain alliance
Cummings might be a cnut... But he's not daft

Also purda means no change in policy can be enacted... By law it's hard brexit on 31st October
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If we were talking weeks as opposed to days I'd agree. However losing the right to Progogue, he'd be extending the danger by a few days of sitting. Would also lose any additional ammunition (New lords, royal assent etc). It makes the whole risky prorogation move irrelevant whilst having expended political capital.

That said, I know that many journalists now think it's the plan, so definitely see where you're coming from. I just think it's the wrong move for them. A more likely date would be after this storm passes but before Labour can remove Corbyn.

I think you're about right on the election arithmetic.
 
Ducklegs said:
Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
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So much stupid in one post.
 
Ducklegs said:
Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
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A deal is extremely easy. In fact it already exists. What the Tory far right are insisting on however is a deal that fecks over Northern Ireland, Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. No amount of threats from British eurosceptic’s is going to make the EU agree to that.

As for the UK being the same as 20 countries leaving, no of course it’s fecking not. You can’t just add up GDP’s like that and think it means anything. If 20 countries left the EU would cease to exist immediately. Instead the UK is leaving and after 3 years of acting like dicks, the EU is just going to wave us goodbye and tell us not to let the door hit our ass on the way out.

As for May, what the actual feck are you talking about? May DIDN’T rule out no-deal, in fact she spent literally years parroting that bullshit ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ line, before slowly realizing that the EU didn’t actually care about UK threats compared to the much bigger threat of jeopardizing the entire EU project. She ended up doing what rational people in a difficult situation usually do and compromising. I’m not sure why that word seems to have now disappeared from the Tory lexicon.
 
limerickcitykid said:
Are Irish citizens applying for the settled status thing? It says we don't need to but everything I've read has some weird wording about the Irish border so is it only you don't need to for crossing the Irish/UK border? Will I need the settled status to get back into England if I go on holiday after October 31st or is being an Irish citizen good to get back in? I see contradicting info and unclear language everywhere.
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We wonder about the flip of that, my wife is English. Myself and the kids on Irish passports but wife on old British passport. Also going for a weeks holiday on 31 October. Expect my wife will have a long queue to get back into Dublin. That’ll teach her
 
Ducklegs said:
Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
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Huh?

May never ruled out no deal.

Despite her being terrible she at least recognised that her deal was the only one the EU could agree to after bending over backwards to help her.

Not the EU's fault that the majority of MP's sensibly knew that leaving the EU, even with a deal, was a truly idiotic and self destructive idea.
 
Chuka talking about a possible extension of two and five months if Boris is defeated this week.
 
Ducklegs said:
Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
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This is a nonesense and fails to properly understand the EU position.
 
Adisa said:
What are we going to do with an extra two months?
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Erm not have a referendum as that's 12 weeks to pass the legistlation and 10 weeks time for the campaign
So presumably a general election... I guess it's just to prevent Boris calling an election a few days after the 31st as he couldn't delay a ge after a confidence vote for that long
 
We can expect to see 'sabre-rattling ' of the finest order this week in the House of Commons, from both sides of the Brexit divide.

Reality TV comes to the Commons at last, there will be lots of HoC officers ready with buckets of sawdust to throw down to cover the bile and cannisters of aerosol to remove the stench, talk about a week being a long time in politics!
 
Ducklegs said:
Nobody wants no deal, not even Boris.

But you have to believe he will go through with it to have any kind of chance of getting a deal in the first place.

As IDS said quoting a German MEP, Britain leaving the EU is like the 20 smallest countries all leaving at once (there are only 27) with no deal, it would be calamitous for the EU if we just walk away. But if they don’t believe it will happen, then they won’t budge.

As I have said time and time again, if May hadn’t just bent over and took it up the arse and ruled out no deal right at the start this would have been sorted with no drama.
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That's quite frankly a ridiculous position that shows 0 understanding of the EU rationale. You need to read or listen to some analysis of the view from the Continent instead of getting an opinion from the Daily Express. Try listening to the Brexicast with Laura Kuenssberg, Katya Adler and Adam Flemming.

The EU won't compromise on the backstop for 3 very simple reasons:

1) It would be selling small member Ireland down the river to appease a leaving member.
The 20 small states that you mentioned will feel expendable to Paris or Berlin in the face of financial interest and euro-scepticism will grow in those states threatening the EU project far more than Brexit. The project hinges on every nation feeling important and defended in the face of external pressure.

2) The single market is sacrosanct.
They are not going to sign a deal that creates a backdoor into the Single Market. That will hurt the EU's ability to strike future deals due to unsecure borders/market and will allow unregulated US products to enter the market in the likely event of a US/UK trade deal. They are not going to waive legislation through that doesn't make a provision for the border. Which is what Boris is asking.

3) They don't feel that Boris can get a deal through parliament regardless.
He simply doesn't have the numbers like May didn't. They feel any EU compromise will be therefore meaningless and only result in them losing face. Remember those EU politicians are also playing to their domestic audience like ours are. And their audience demands an increasingly tougher stance as the British stance toughens too. It's a lose/lose situation for those politicians to compromise.

However damaging a no deal Brexit will be to the EU they feel the threat of bending over backwards to please Britain creates far more problems than it solves. Therefore the rationale that by threatening to exit without a deal is the best way to make a deal, is fallacy. By threatening (or "being serious" as you call it) of no deal the only scenario made more likely is no deal, while the prospect of a deal diminishes. The opposite of what you say.
 
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MadMike said:
Therefore the rationale that by threatening to exit without a deal is the best way to make a deal, is fallacy.
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Absolutely correct that's why the vote to leave has always been a vote for a 'no deal' Brexit. May had the chance when her deal was knocked back three times to say, "look I've tried my best the HoC wont accept this deal, its the only one well get, so as its not acceptable I will revoke A50". She didn't, it wasn't, and we are leaving on the 31st of Oct with No deal.
 
A50 should have been revoked on 29 March (?) then spend the rest of time trying to come up with a deal that everyone agrees to, invoke A50 again and leave in an orderly fashion. By which time we'll all be dead from global forest fire warming anyway and it won't matter.
 
Maticmaker said:
We can expect to see 'sabre-rattling ' of the finest order this week in the House of Commons, from both sides of the Brexit divide.

Reality TV comes to the Commons at last, there will be lots of HoC officers ready with buckets of sawdust to throw down to cover the bile and cannisters of aerosol to remove the stench, talk about a week being a long time in politics!
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They are only supposed to be sitting 3 days this week I think
Presumably we see on Tuesday trying to take control of order paper to block no deal brexit and / or a no confidence motion
Wednesday PMQ's and potentially a Vote of confidence and / or MP's having an emergency debate on no deal / blocking no deal
Thurdsay - fek knows
 
Maticmaker said:
Absolutely correct that's why the vote to leave has always been a vote for a 'no deal' Brexit. May had the chance when her deal was knocked back three times to say, "look I've tried my best the HoC wont accept this deal, its the only one well get, so as its not acceptable I will revoke A50". She didn't, it wasn't, and we are leaving on the 31st of Oct with No deal.
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It can't have been that because no one on the Leave campaign endorsed that stance and even called leaving the EU without a deal as Project Fear. If you're saying that people voted for a de facto outcome entirely different to the one the Leave.EU campaign for, you're effectively saying that people have been duped and that no-deal has no democratic mandate.

EDIT: And if you claim that the people's stance since has since hanged, or that the people would now support something different from what was originally promised, you can run an honest campaign about leaving without a deal and put it on a referendum and see if you get the people's mandate.
 
Boris Johnson to chair cabinet this afternoon - as speculation about imminent election intensifies

Boris Johnson has called a unexpected meeting of the cabinet today at 5pm, multiple Whitehall sources have confirmed. The prime minister is then expected to address Conservative MPs at a summer garden party in Downing Street.

The scheduling of the meeting has sent the rumour mill in Westminster into overdrive about the possibility that the government will set out plans for an snap general election this week.

Though no plans have been confirmed, senior rebel sources believe that Johnson could move as early as Wednesday this week, with a motion tabled the following day which would require the support of two-thirds of MPs.

A vote on the snap poll would come with a commitment that polling day would be before October 31 - though the date would ultimately be in the control of the government.
 
LARulz said:
100%. We're all geared up in the newsroom for an announcement this week and an election in a month or so
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I think anyone who is 100% certain of what is going to happen has not been paying attention.

I think now the Govt will wait and see what the rebels will do. The Rebels could pass a legislation and the government could ignore it. By the time the complains play through the courts it will be months if not years, so it would be inconsequential as we'll have Brexited and have had elections since.

If the rebels don't trust the Govt to honour the law, and those doubts increased after Gove's interview, they'll have to proceed with a VONC asap. Time is limited. The GE has to happen 25 days after dissolution of parliament. If the VONC doesn't happen this week, parliament returns from proroguation mid October. By which time the GE would be scheduled after Brexit and it's too late.

Basically the only way I see no deal being averted is by a VONC this week, followed by a GNU and that Govt going to Brussels and negotiating an extension. The current Govt is gambling on the rebels not being organised and coherent enough in their strategy to form a GNU.
 
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Sassy Colin said:
Are you a bona fide ITK then?
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I work in a newsroom but my information tends to be second hand rather directly from the actual ITK like reporters, their producers (to decide if its worth talking about) etc. If I hear about it, it's because my managers have told me or others because its going to become common knowledge/nothing that will start world war 3.

As for getting election ready, to be honest, that's standard practice. No news organisation will go into this period without covering most situations and being prepared to "go" at the drop of a hat
 
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