Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)

esmufc07 said:
Labour should come out in favour of revocation aswell. Make the upcoming election No Deal v Remain, and then we can finally put this sorry chapter to bed, whatever the outcome.
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The difficulty is for Labour that in it's top 45 target seats (they need to gain 64 to get a majority) only 10 voted remain and 35 voted leave. All the seats they need are Tory held at the moment, some by the thinnest of margins (Southampton Itchen 35 con majority!)

If Corbyn comes out pro remain, you could likely say good bye to the chances of a Labour govt, they could actually end up losing seats for example Dudley North has a Lab majority of just 22, but the constituency was 70.1% leave at the referendum, Labour held onto it at the last election as they campaigned on a leave manifesto. If they come out as remain they lose that.

They may win some SNP seats in Scotland, but to win or to even come close enough to form a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems they need to win Tory seats in England and Wales and that's not likely on a remain platform.

This is why they have been so opaque about what their Brexit policy is
 
The Boy said:
The difficulty is for Labour that in it's top 45 target seats (they need to gain 64 to get a majority) only 10 voted remain and 35 voted leave. All the seats they need are Tory held at the moment, some by the thinnest of margins (Southampton Itchen 35 con majority!)

If Corbyn comes out pro remain, you could likely say good bye to the chances of a Labour govt, they could actually end up losing seats for example Dudley North has a Lab majority of just 22, but the constituency was 70.1% leave at the referendum, Labour held onto it at the last election as they campaigned on a leave manifesto. If they come out as remain they lose that.

They may win some SNP seats in Scotland, but to win or to even come close enough to form a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems they need to win Tory seats in England and Wales and that's not likely on a remain platform.

This is why they have been so opaque about what their Brexit policy is
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Labour win a majority... Simply can't see that
Libs SNP greens could well get 100 seats between them
Brexit party is clearly an unknown but I suspect they could be the main threat to labour in the labour leave seats ... Possibly 50mps
Another 20 or so independents and smaller parties
That takes up around 170 seats... Very hard to see anything other than a coalition or minority government
Clearly that's either conservative / brexit / dup
Or labour / libs / SNP etc
The only way labour will be able to get agreement from them I think is a referendm asap between Mays deal and remain with a commitment to labour campaigning to remain
They might as well be honest and make that their official policy now ... And I suspect after conference that or some close varient will end up as the policy.
 
sun_tzu said:
Labour win a majority... Simply can't see that
Libs SNP greens could well get 100 seats between them
Brexit party is clearly an unknown but I suspect they could be the main threat to labour in the labour leave seats ... Possibly 50mps
Another 20 or so independents and smaller parties
That takes up around 170 seats... Very hard to see anything other than a coalition or minority government
Clearly that's either conservative / brexit / dup
Or labour / libs / SNP etc
The only way labour will be able to get agreement from them I think is a referendm asap between Mays deal and remain with a commitment to labour campaigning to remain
They might as well be honest and make that their official policy now ... And I suspect after conference that or some close varient will end up as the policy.
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This is the point I think, but whether it is Brexit party or Tories is almost irrelevant 16 of Labour's most vulnerable seats (a majority of under 2000)
voted leave, the majority of their target seats voted leave. I think Labour will lose seats in this election rather than gain them, especially if they come out as pro remain.

What will be interesting is the Lib Dems, who seem to think they can win up to 70 seats, that would be their best performance ever. They are targeting moderate Tories and in Tory/Lib Dem marginals there is polling that suggests a swing towards the Lib Dems, Winchester for example. But even if they do they are unlikely to command more seats in coalition with Lab and SNP, Change, Green and Plaid Cymru than the Tories and Brexit party together IF the Tories agree to go into coalition with them. But given Johnson's desperation at the moment I wouldn't be surprised to see a cabinet with Farage in it by Christmas...... makes me shudder even writing that
 
The Boy said:
This is the point I think, but whether it is Brexit party or Tories is almost irrelevant 16 of Labour's most vulnerable seats (a majority of under 2000)
voted leave, the majority of their target seats voted leave. I think Labour will lose seats in this election rather than gain them, especially if they come out as pro remain.

What will be interesting is the Lib Dems, who seem to think they can win up to 70 seats, that would be their best performance ever. They are targeting moderate Tories and in Tory/Lib Dem marginals there is polling that suggests a swing towards the Lib Dems, Winchester for example. But even if they do they are unlikely to command more seats in coalition with Lab and SNP, Change, Green and Plaid Cymru than the Tories and Brexit party together IF the Tories agree to go into coalition with them. But given Johnson's desperation at the moment I wouldn't be surprised to see a cabinet with Farage in it by Christmas...... makes me shudder even writing that
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I think they loose them with their current policy anyway - and their current policy will also bleed a lot of remain support to the libs...

If they fully back remain they will at least only bleed out on one side - plus they are going to be dragged to that position by a coalition anyway

As for the farrage bit - yeah if it ends up with Brexit MP's being required to enact legistlation then I think the conservatives are going to long for the days when they only had the DUP to pursuade as I suspect some of the demands from Farrage will be ridiculous and the trade talks with the EU will be pretty much impossible as he wont pay any of the settlement fee
 
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Labour going flat out revoke would be political suicide for them and the remain cause.

There aren't remainers who would vote for a remain party but only if Labour backs revoke. You're not gaining any votes that way but you sure as hell are losing them.
 
He has come out of the last week very well. I was scared he was going to agree to an election.
 
sun_tzu said:
I think they loose them with their current policy anyway - and their current policy will also bleed a lot of remain support to the libs...

If they fully back remain they will at least only bleed out on one side - plus they are going to be dragged to that position by a coalition anyway

As for the farrage bit - yeah if it ends up with Brexit MP's being required to enact legistlation then I think the conservatives are going to long for the days when they only had the DUP to pursuade as I suspect some of the demands from Farrage will be ridiculous and the trade talks with the EU will be pretty much impossible as he wont pay any of the settlement fee
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If I was Boris, I would hold an election and in out referendum on the same day.
Tories would win the election hands down as remainers scared of Corbyn could vote Tory and remain. You bleed the Lib Dem vote and there are alot of Lib Dem/Tory marginals. Britain gets a Tory government, there's nowt in it for the Brexit party and the UK stays in the EU.
Boris never cared whether we were in or out in the first place, but he does care about keeping the Tories in power and keeping himself in No 10, this would be an easy way to do it.
 
Smores said:
Labour going flat out revoke would be political suicide for them and the remain cause.

There aren't remainers who would vote for a remain party but only if Labour backs revoke. You're not gaining any votes that way but you sure as hell are losing them.
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I think the libs could actually finish ahead of them if labour dont change their current brexit policy(though im pretty sure the current policy wont survive conference)
 
The Boy said:
If I was Boris, I would hold an election and in out referendum on the same day.
Tories would win the election hands down as remainers scared of Corbyn could vote Tory and remain. You bleed the Lib Dem vote and there are alot of Lib Dem/Tory marginals. Britain gets a Tory government, there's nowt in it for the Brexit party and the UK stays in the EU.
Boris never cared whether we were in or out in the first place, but he does care about keeping the Tories in power and keeping himself in No 10, this would be an easy way to do it.
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you cant - there are different laws governing the run in period for referendum and elections - minimum for a referendum to pass the legistlation, have the electoral commision test and agree a question then designate official campaigns for each side then enter the campaign period is 6 months (and thats presuming no legal challanges to the question and i suspect in the current atmosphere there would be so probably longer)
 
sun_tzu said:
I think the libs could actually finish ahead of them if labour dont change their current brexit policy(though im pretty sure the current policy wont survive conference)
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I highly doubt it but it doesn't really matter if votes move between labour and lib dem. It's votes from Labour to Brexit and the Tories that are of concern.

Of course both the Lib Dems and Labour are going to look after their own interests, probably with the cost being brexit.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
The Lib Dems have changed their policy. Struggling to see your point?
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No they didn’t. A change would imply that they held a different position for the case they became government. They didn’t. They never said they would enact a 2nd referendum if they were in power. The people’s vote position is one that says that any deal for Brexit has to be approved by the people first before becoming law in Parliament. They never said they would try to put any deal through if they were in Govt. The two positions are not mutually exclusive.

I’m sure, for all your struggles, you can work that one out.
 
MadMike said:
No they didn’t. A change would imply that they held a different position for the case they became government. They didn’t. They never said they would enact a 2nd referendum if they were in power. The people’s vote position is one that says that any deal for Brexit has to be approved by the people first before becoming law in Parliament. They never said they would try to put any deal through if they were in Govt. The two positions are not mutually exclusive.

I’m sure, for all your struggles, you can work that one out.
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Keep up.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17800055.new-lib-dem-leader-honour-result-future-eu-vote/

Swinson:
“So there isn’t agreement amongst Brexiteers, therefore I don’t think there is agreement in the country for any specific Brexit proposal and that’s why we need to put this issue back to the people in a People’s Vote and I will campaign strongly with the Liberal Democrats to remain in the EU.”
 
sun_tzu said:
you cant - there are different laws governing the run in period for referendum and elections - minimum for a referendum to pass the legistlation, have the electoral commision test and agree a question then designate official campaigns for each side then enter the campaign period is 6 months (and thats presuming no legal challanges to the question and i suspect in the current atmosphere there would be so probably longer)
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You're right, but you could reduce it by a month or so. For example the electoral commission doesn't necessarily need 12 weeks to test the question, you could also change the campaigning period at the moment it is a minimum of 10 weeks (that includes campaigns to the electoral commission for official designation), but laws can be amended when the legislation for a referendum is put to parliament, parliament agrees the date, timings etc with each referendum.

But it doesn't matter Boris just says we propose to do this, if the EU only give an extension up until the end of Jan 2020 (which is the best guess at the moment) parliament could easily vote to make sure we had a referendum before then Then we have GE and Ref in December just before Xmas.

To be fair we've only had 3 in my life time 1975 on EEC membership, 2011 on PR and of course 2016 and each time the rules have been different. You never know it could happen, predicting anything is impossible at the moment, events change everything so quickly!
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Keep up.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17800055.new-lib-dem-leader-honour-result-future-eu-vote/

Swinson:
“So there isn’t agreement amongst Brexiteers, therefore I don’t think there is agreement in the country for any specific Brexit proposal and that’s why we need to put this issue back to the people in a People’s Vote and I will campaign strongly with the Liberal Democrats to remain in the EU.”
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Which part of that says what they’d do in power and contradicts the post you quoted? Are you having severe comprehension issues?
 
Smores said:
I highly doubt it but it doesn't really matter if votes move between labour and lib dem. It's votes from Labour to Brexit and the Tories that are of concern.
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But of course it matters in constituencies where votes lost to Lib Dems means ending up with a Tory seat. It’s FPTP system.
 
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MadMike said:
But of course it matters in constituencies where votes lost to Lib Dems means ending up with Tory seat. It’s FPTP system.
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He is right though, the marginals in this election are between Lib Dem/Con and Lab/Con, in 2015 when the Lib Dems were wiped out they lost 27 seats to the Tories and only 9 to Labour. The Lib Dems think they could win all of those back in this election and more. The amount of seats that are Lib Dem/Lab marginals are not not so many and therefore not so important.

The other key marginal seats are the ones that are Lab/Con. The vast majority of those are leave voting constituencies so the Lib Dems won't be part of the race. So again a number of votes switching from Lab to Lib Dem are not so important.

It's because we're an FPTP system that Lab voters switching to Lib Dem are less important because of the constituencies they are doing it in. If we had PR it would make a bigger difference.

MadMike said:


Do you know you see how ridiculous the position you were holding was?
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On a separate matter - this post made me laugh out loud!
 
The Boy said:
You're right, but you could reduce it by a month or so. For example the electoral commission doesn't necessarily need 12 weeks to test the question, you could also change the campaigning period at the moment it is a minimum of 10 weeks (that includes campaigns to the electoral commission for official designation), but laws can be amended when the legislation for a referendum is put to parliament, parliament agrees the date, timings etc with each referendum.

But it doesn't matter Boris just says we propose to do this, if the EU only give an extension up until the end of Jan 2020 (which is the best guess at the moment) parliament could easily vote to make sure we had a referendum before then Then we have GE and Ref in December just before Xmas.

To be fair we've only had 3 in my life time 1975 on EEC membership, 2011 on PR and of course 2016 and each time the rules have been different. You never know it could happen, predicting anything is impossible at the moment, events change everything so quickly!
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true... that said im fairly confident in predicting that the question would be deemed by most people to be unfair
eg 2 part question or not
2 options or more
simply the option that gets the most in a milti option vote or single transferable
what the actual options would be?
As i say i suspect given there are so many options I suspect whatever option is picked will be in the vast majority of peoples eyes the wrong question... and no doubt it will be a close result and this will be used by whichever side looses to reject the validity of the result

I think we should just draw a line down the middle of the country and if you want to be in europe move to the west and if you want to leave move to the east (or vice versa as nodoubt remain and leave would even fall out over that)... its crazy and unworkable but hey most of the other ideas seem to be
 
The Boy said:
The difficulty is for Labour that in it's top 45 target seats (they need to gain 64 to get a majority) only 10 voted remain and 35 voted leave. All the seats they need are Tory held at the moment, some by the thinnest of margins (Southampton Itchen 35 con majority!)

If Corbyn comes out pro remain, you could likely say good bye to the chances of a Labour govt, they could actually end up losing seats for example Dudley North has a Lab majority of just 22, but the constituency was 70.1% leave at the referendum, Labour held onto it at the last election as they campaigned on a leave manifesto. If they come out as remain they lose that.

They may win some SNP seats in Scotland, but to win or to even come close enough to form a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems they need to win Tory seats in England and Wales and that's not likely on a remain platform.

This is why they have been so opaque about what their Brexit policy is
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This view has been rather debunked by a few of the polling academic types. See thread below.

 
Corbyn warns Prime Minister: General election is coming

Jeremy Corbyn has warned Boris Johnson that a general election “is coming”, but not on the Prime Minister’s terms, as the Labour leader effectively launched his campaign for an election he is yet to vote for.

Mr Corbyn threatened to
“unleash the biggest people-powered campaign we’ve ever seen” when addressing union members at the TUC Congress in Brighton on Tuesday.

He accused the PM of “running away from scrutiny” on the first day of Parliament’s contentious shutdown as the Brexit clock ticks down.

The speech came after Labour led the way to inflict yet another defeat on the Prime Minister by blocking his second call for a general election in the Commons.

Opposition leaders have not supported the votes, which needed the backing of two-thirds of MPs, because they fear an election could be used to force through a no-deal Brexit.

Mr Corbyn told union members: “No-one can trust the word of a Prime Minister who is threatening to break the law to force through no deal.

“So a general election is coming. But we won’t allow Johnson to dictate the terms.

“And I can tell you this: We’re ready for that election. We’re ready to unleash the biggest people-powered campaign we’ve ever seen.”

Mr Corbyn recommitted to a second referendum on Brexit, which he said would include a “credible option to Leave” as well as Remain.

He also accused the PM of cosying up to President Donald Trump to get a “one-sided” trade deal with the US which would damage employment rights, the NHS and UK industry.

“A no-deal Brexit is really a Trump-deal Brexit,” he said.

He accused Mr Johnson of “hijacking the referendum result to shift even more power and wealth to those at the top”, as he painted the Tory leader and his Cabinet as “the establishment”.

Mr Corbyn also launched a series of policies on employment rights, vowing to put power “in the hands of workers”.
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MadMike said:


Do you now you see how ridiculous the position you were holding was?
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Not as ridiculous as you dragging up posts from weeks ago that any sane person would have erased from their memory :lol: but anyway, it means nothing, because the Lib Dems have zero chance of becoming the largest party and thus their policy will to all intents and purposes remain as it was. That is, backing a second referendum and campaigning for Remain. It's like Corbyn saying Labour's policy is a second referendum but if the Conservatives and Brexit Party fail to win a single seat then he'll revoke Article 50 as well.
 
EwanI Ted said:
This view has been rather debunked by a few of the polling academic types. See thread below.

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The conclusions of that seem to be to win votes off other remain parties (better to do an alliance), hope non-voters now vote (these tend to be leavers) and erm it's not all brexit.

I really don't see how it debunks what was stated at all. Labour will lose leave seats if they're not careful and the vast majority of Tory remain votes will go to the Lib Dems.
 
MadMike said:
Which part of that says what they’d do in power and contradicts the post you quoted? Are you having severe comprehension issues?
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If you think the Lib Dems will win the next general election then the comprehension issue lies with you. Look again at the stance clarified by the Lib Dems in my previous post to you. This is the only likely influence they could have.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
If you think the Lib Dems will win the next general election then the comprehension issue lies with you. Look again at the stance clarified by the Lib Dems in my previous post to you. This is the only likely influence they could have.
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I never said Lib Dems will win the next election. But thank you for confirming that arguing with you would be a waste of time for both of us.
 
BobbyManc said:
Not as ridiculous as you dragging up posts from weeks ago that any sane person would have erased from their memory :lol: but anyway, it means nothing, because the Lib Dems have zero chance of becoming the largest party and thus their policy will to all intents and purposes remain as it was. That is, backing a second referendum and campaigning for Remain. It's like Corbyn saying Labour's policy is a second referendum but if the Conservatives and Brexit Party fail to win a single seat then he'll revoke Article 50 as well.
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That's an interesting way of saying "I was talking bollocks but never mind"
 
Smores said:
The conclusions of that seem to be to win votes off other remain parties (better to do an alliance), hope non-voters now vote (these tend to be leavers) and erm it's not all brexit.

I really don't see how it debunks what was stated at all. Labour will lose leave seats if they're not careful and the vast majority of Tory remain votes will go to the Lib Dems.
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The point is that "leave seats" is a misleading term. They aren't comprised of 100% leave voters and the idea that Labour being more open to Leave will give them net more votes in those seats is simply in ignorance of how the voting in those seats actually breaks down.
 
Surely if labour come out as completely pro-remain they’re bound to win a brave few seats in England? Do some kind of deal with the Lib Dems and give the SNP a free run at Scotland where they’ll likely clean up. Bound to be able to form a government between the 3
 
sullydnl said:
So if you're a remainer for whom Brexit is the #1 issue dictating your voting preference in a general election, why would you now opt for Labour over the LibDems?

That's a genuine question btw. I'm curious as to how Labour will attract remain votes away from a party who have now said they support the revocation of Article 50.
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Only reason would be that the Lib Dems aren’t actually gonna get enough support to do anything worthwhile so it might seem like a wasted vote. Well that and they are the Lib Dems so feck em.
 
MadMike said:
I never said Lib Dems will win the next election. But thank you for confirming that arguing with you would be a waste of time for both of us.
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Agreed. You have been considering what would happen if Lib Dems become the largest party. You certainly live up to your username.
 
Oh look Watson doing something controversial so he's in the news.

You never fecking see him in parliament or elsewhere but wait for a opening to be contradictory and there he is.

His position is ridiculous there's no government that has a mandate to sit in the time a referendum would take.
 
Smores said:
Oh look Watson doing something controversial so he's in the news.

You never fecking see him in parliament or elsewhere but wait for a opening to be contradictory and there he is.

His position is ridiculous there's no government that has a mandate to sit in the time a referendum would take.
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Johnson on the ropes, the opposition parties largely united against no deal and successfully cooperating in parliament and Watson thinks now's the time to show some pointless disunity? What a self-centered twat.
 
Raulduke said:
Johnson on the ropes, the opposition parties largely united against no deal and successfully cooperating in parliament and Watson thinks now's the time to show some pointless disunity? What a self-centered twat.
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...And Labour at mid 20s in the polls, mustn't forget that.
 
Raulduke said:
Johnson on the ropes, the opposition parties largely united against no deal and successfully cooperating in parliament and Watson thinks now's the time to show some pointless disunity? What a self-centered twat.
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Unity on Brexit went out the window some time ago to be fair. The Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Home Sec and Shadow Foreign Sec would all campaign against Labour's Brexit deal in a referendum, last I saw.
 
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