Might be top of the xPts table as well (waiting for the xGs to be uploaded on understat), or will be very close to top
United and xG (now that Ole is gone will things change?)
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Yep! Though obviously very early on. The defence is definitely looking quality and preventing passes inside and closing space really well. Looking at it and the only times we've really been opened up have been straight up brain farts. While of course we won't be perfect defensively all season and mistakes will happen, I think it's safe to say we'll have a good defensive foundation for the season and that's huge for the top 4 fight where the others are a mess defensively.
It's like watching peak Mourinho ball, something which xG on attacking side confirm. Where we are 11th in the PL when it comes to xG from open play and 10th in PL with xG from set-plays after 5 matches.
About time the stats start working for us.
We're actually 4th in xG, 1st in xGA, 2nd in xPts. I dont know where you're getting 11th and 10th from.
Yep. The stats confirm what we are seeing on the pitch.
I'm using data provided by Opta, here is where I'm 'getting it from'.
You're being misled by the overall xG due to 4 penalties which we've gotten in 5 matches, the algorithm accounts for xG of 0.79 for every penalty hence the overall xG appears to be skewed. There are different ways of breaking down any stats but the most reliable is always an eye test, we've struggled to create chances from open play so far and data matches up to that.
Ignoring penalties that were caused to prevent clear cut chances in a few of them also misrepresents the xG from open play. The reality is that penalties are part of the game, and ignoring them just basically tries to pretend that they are complete luck and not related to us getting in attacking positions in the first place. We've had 4 clear cut penalties and had a couple more not called during the 5 games already and they all influence how the games go. I'm not saying we've been amazing going forward, but it hasn't been that bad.I'm using data provided by Opta, here is where I'm 'getting it from'.
You're being misled by the overall xG due to 4 penalties which we've gotten in 5 matches, the algorithm accounts for xG of 0.79 for every penalty hence the overall xG appears to be skewed. There are different ways of breaking down any stats but the most reliable is always an eye test, we've struggled to create chances from open play so far and data matches up to that.
I'm always completely baffled at the people who seem to discount penalties from everything. The team gets in those positions and often times they are fouls preventing good chances. That's why the team gets such a big chance to score. Other games we won't get penalties but won't be fouled while trying score.
You’re using xG wrong if you’re overly concerned about our xG when we’ve be leading the whole game. Keep the xA down and you’ve all but got the three points.
Too early to draw conclusions but we are looking good defensively. Last season we had 2 cleansheets at home, this season we have 2 in 3 games. We are not conceding many chances, only we have to improve the toughest part, creating chances. We really lack balance in the attack, something that should be improved in Jan or at least promoting players like Greenwood.
Encouraging but too early to draw conclusions.
I think the main point we can draw from all these xG stuff over 5 games is:-
1) it is better to have poor results and good xG than
2) to have poor results and poor xG
The former indicates there is hope that things will get better because we seem to be underperforming.
The latter indicates there isn't much hope of improvement because we are performing as we should be.
So there's a bit of consolation there I guess. Hopefully the team manages to stick through it and turn things around.
I think the main point we can draw from all these xG stuff over 5 games is:-
1) it is better to have poor results and good xG than
2) to have poor results and poor xG
The former indicates there is hope that things will get better because we seem to be underperforming.
The latter indicates there isn't much hope of improvement because we are performing as we should be.
So there's a bit of consolation there I guess. Hopefully the team manages to stick through it and turn things around.
I am not ignoring anything, I clearly pointed it out to tell you how the algorithms of penalties work and that's why the overall data is skewed. Which has us in 4th position for xG overall in the league. Just look at Rashford penalty yesterday, he was heading nowhere with plenty of protection available for Leicester but once he was chopped down our xG immediately went up by 0.79 compared to whatever miniscule amount that would've been if the shot was taken and he hadn't been fouled. Same applies for McTominay being fouled amongst sea of players versus Palace.
Also, I never made an argument about xGA because it clearly has us as the best team in the league when it comes to preventing chance. This is obvious to any eye who's watching us week in week out.
United have won 4 penalties in 5 games, that accounts for 60% of total pens in PL this season so far. That run is simply not sustainable. If we continue to play in the same vein and are not getting penalties every week, you'll see xG reflect that. Data has to be understood in context especially when we are discussing xG, that was my original point hence I posted where we stood in that regard from open and set-plays.
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Not having to start the likes of Periera, Lingard and Mata would go a long way to improving our attacking output.
Given the resources our club has at its disposal, to have such poor attacking options is inexcusable.
And rest assured - if Lingard doesn't improve he will go - if Pereira doesn't take that NeXT step he will go - and Mata will stay maybe a year or 2 as a squad-player and then he will be gone as well. Matic will go - maybe as soon as during the januari-window.
Despite popular belief - OGS is ruthless if the players don't perform. But he can't get rid of everyone at once.
Woody flirted with a large number of midfield/attacking targets over the summer but failed to acquire a single one, leaving Ole exposed to the inadequate Lingard and co. There's only so much a manager can do with such limited options at his disposal.
It's Woody's fault, cretin that he is. It amazes me that he is still in a job.
Pereira actually has second highest xA in our squad right now according to Understat. Weird, right?
Not really, the assist against against Chelsea was 0.61. Martial tapped in from a cross so it was a big chance. Aside from that he’s created cock all, much like the rest of the team.
Yeah, we are unbalanced side. We don't have RW and #10 barely contribute.
This is the part that makes me so confused. When it comes to players who underperform he’s doing the right things. He also started lwith a paper thin squad in some positions so it’s more then understandable that he couldn’t replace all the deadwood in one window. We all get that.
But how could he accept that we sold both Lukaku and Sanchez without a back up replacement behind Rashford and Martial? As it stands we only have three players who’s capable of scoring goals on their own. Martial. Rashford. James. None of them was a natural goals scorer last season.
Same regarding our midfield. Selling Fellaini and let Herrera leave without replacements.
What’s going on inside our club? Carrick. Solskjær. Our scouting team. Woodward. Butt.
Don’t they communicate with each other??
It’s unbelievable that a club of our size ends up with Periera, Mata and Matic as our only options as starters after four games. Matic and Mata lost their legs last season. Pereira has never been good enough to be a starter. All of us who follows United knew this! One injury and our team looks unbalanced and short of quality options. How is it possible with one of the highest wage bills in the history of football?
As I said all of this makes me so confused. Solskjær clearly knows what to do to make this club moving forward but at the same time he seems to be totally blind regarding the consequences of some of his actions.
Another part that confuses me is how unprepared our player seems to be.
When the game starts we run like lunatics then after 20-25 minutes everything falls apart. The game plan seems to disappear. Our movements slow down. Our passing game lose tempo and quality. Players starts to do mistakes whenever they get stressed. Simple things gets complicated.
What are we doing between our games? We can’t practice or prepare because the majority of our players looks tired and totally clueless after 20 minutes. How is it possible?
Like I and many others has said before. Ole Gunnar is doing the right thing when it comes to administration and selling and buying new players. But when it comes to preparing his players, game plans, technical improvements, making his team fluent and functional his results are poor. That part of his management isn’t working.
Xg seems to be a pretty good metric to judge overall performance. We'd be second only for some shit luck and bad refereeing.
If we maintain these numbers (performance levels) all season we will end up in a good position.
Hopefully we can.
If we maintain these numbers (performance levels) all season we will end up in a good position.
Hopefully we can.
Why stop at expected goals?
When you have sufficient data you can pretty much use it to calculate expected anything. How about :
When you have sufficient data you can pretty much use it to calculate expected anything. How about :
- xWL : Expected wins and loses in a season
- xT : Expected trophies won in a season
- xSc : Expected number of successful crosses (where they don't hit the defenders leg)
- xCba : Expected number of players that cannot be arsed in certain matches
- xGs : Expected number of years before the Glazers sell ManUtd
- xEdWd : Expected number of Ed Woodward fans on RedCafe
- xMEN 2019 : Expected number of shites M.E.N write in 2019
- xisimon : Expected number of ITKs to appear on Reddit in the next transfer window
If xG upsets you, maybe just ignore it
Individual errors have cost us mostly.
Yup. De Gea and Lindelof and the missed pens.
It is a positive, and hopefully we can have some players step up in attack as well.
Considering the state of our midfield and inexperience up-front the stats suggest that our players should be doing better even in our current state. That's not bad reading. Players step up, so will results. Winning pens is also - believe it or not - a good thing and suggests good things about us attacking the opponent's box.
Not all doom and gloom. We should really have more points on the board than we have, unfortunate, but not the end of the world.
Not all doom and gloom. We should really have more points on the board than we have, unfortunate, but not the end of the world.
You’re in the wrong thread
It should be kept in mind that we haven't played City or Liverpool yet, which will worsen these stats. Still though, this is very good, and it shows that we are improving defensively.
Gonna win the xG here too 
We've fallen so far all we can cling onto is what could have happened.
Again won on the xG. Not by enough to expect to win the game every time, but Fabianski and the finishing of individuals was the difference. Still felt shit.
https://understat.com/match/11700
https://understat.com/match/11700
The other models for the sake of completeness.
This shit reminds me of the alternative league tables some of our resident Arsenal and Liverpool fans used to do.
We simply don't create enough chances and I'm talking about genuine scoring chances. We rank 15th in the PL ffs!
https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/big_chance_created?se=274
https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/big_chance_created?se=274
Kill this thread and go back to playing FM.
Stop blaming bad luck, we're terrible and our results reflect it.
Stop blaming bad luck, we're terrible and our results reflect it.
Nah xG is historically predictive. If we maintain our current performance levels results will regress to the mean
But...
We aren’t creating enough high xG chances and our squad is very thin
I think we have been good defensively but unlucky to concede in the games so far till today where the opp took their only chance or so.
But by the same token we have not been great attacking wise but managed to create a few clear chances. So on balance I felt this was reflected in xG
But by the same token we have not been great attacking wise but managed to create a few clear chances. So on balance I felt this was reflected in xG
I don’t think people are blaming bad luck particularly. We know our GK has been below average for a good 18 months. We don’t have faith in our attacking players converting.
Our xG is also not particularly inspiring anyway. It would suggest we deserve to be a few points better off, but once we dig beneath the service we see that we struggle to shape games. When we need a goal, we struggle to make one inevitablee.