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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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  • Poll closed .
From Ireland's POV, is this deal better than no-deal? It doesn't seem significantly better, that's for sure.

What's the play now? Reject it and hope the Remain Alliance manage to bring down Boris? He probably won't have the numbers to get it through parliament anyway so is there any benefit in accepting it?
 
cyberman said:
Under his proposal, Irish lorries in Ireland would be checked even if they were't leaving Ireland if travelling to northern Donegal.
My head actually hurts
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I'd imagine in a no-deal scenario they'd have to go through Ballyshannon to get to Donegal without checks right?
 
MadMike said:
From Ireland's POV, is this deal better than no-deal? It doesn't seem significantly better, that's for sure.

What's the play now? Reject it and hope the Remain Alliance manage to bring down Boris? He probably won't have the numbers to get it through parliament anyway so is there any benefit in accepting it?
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No-deal is the worst outcome for everybody involved but Ireland and the EU simply cannot be seen to accept such a deal - politically it is impossible, economically it would be a disaster and not only that it breaks an international peace treaty. They simply cannot accept this deal - so no-deal is sadly inevitable at this point. At least Ireland will continue to receive support from the EU to try and mitigate some of the damage, the same cannot be said of the UK who will have essentially burnt their bridges with the EU who will undoubtably seek to punish the UK by being very strong in negotiations for future trade deals (i.e. they will be shite).
 
balaks said:
No-deal is the worst outcome for everybody involved but Ireland and the EU simply cannot be seen to accept such a deal - politically it is impossible, economically it would be a disaster and not only that it breaks an international peace treaty. They simply cannot accept this deal - so no-deal is sadly inevitable at this point. At least Ireland will continue to receive support from the EU to try and mitigate some of the damage, the same cannot be said of the UK who will have essentially burnt their bridges with the EU who will undoubtedly seek to punish the UK by being very strong in negotiations for future trade deals (i.e. they will be shite).
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The political cost from accepting this would indeed be very heavy. I don't even know if they would accept this or not if they knew for sure that Boris could pass it through parliament. As it is he can't pass it through and, with a VONC and GE around the corner, I don't see the point in Ireland risking the political cost with potentially 0 benefit.

They'll reject it as a workable solution but a bad deal.
 
Boris Johnson has told his party conference that delaying Brexit beyond 31 October would cost £1bn a month.

The problem with this figure is that if there is a Brexit deal, as Mr Johnson says he wants, it will include payments to the EU, currently expected to be about £33bn.

That figure includes budget contributions until the end of a transition period.

So unless there is no deal, contributions to the EU budget will have to be made anyway.
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Project fear.
 
Surely the likelihood is that the Government doesn't agree a deal, the Benn Act means an extension takes place and then we have a General Election meaning the deadlock will finally be broken in Parliament, probably in the favour of remain as Boris will be seen to have failed?

Too optimistic?
 
GDaly95 said:
Surely the likelihood is that the Government doesn't agree a deal, the Benn Act means an extension takes place and then we have a General Election meaning the deadlock will finally be broken in Parliament, probably in the favour of remain as Boris will be seen to have failed?

Too optimistic?
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Wildly optimistic. But not impossible.
 
GDaly95 said:
Surely the likelihood is that the Government doesn't agree a deal, the Benn Act means an extension takes place and then we have a General Election meaning the deadlock will finally be broken in Parliament, probably in the favour of remain as Boris will be seen to have failed?

Too optimistic?
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That would be the best outcome at the moment.
 
Smores said:
I liked one of the lines that 70hrs has been spent on it as that's supposed to be an impressive number. We'd class that as a small project in my place :lol:
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And over how many months as well? :lol:
 
I'm just imaging the scene where they came up with this new policy, boris shouting for creativity and someone underlining the word near on the white board, what's near? 1 mile? Let's just have them 2 miles away then!! Spiffing
 
Like every Tory, everything is for sale and can be sorted with money.
 
Raulduke said:
And with a DUP veto :nervous:

Edit:
So yet another trial balloon being floated to make it look like they are trying to get a deal..

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She's so ridiculously credulous. I guess she didn't think it was worth asking or clarifying how it differs before tweeting on behalf of the government,
 
So basically the same thing the UK have done for three years

"We propose an alternative to the backdrop, it's unacceptable"
"Ok great, what is it?
"What is what?"
"Your alternative.."
"How the feck should I know? You come up with one"
 
Raulduke said:


Edit:

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He is asking for the 'very small number of physical checks needed to be conducted at trader's premises or OTHER POINTS ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN'.

Where are these other points? Who is going to complete these physical checks? That's physical infrastructure on the island and some form of border check which is exactly what they (UK) promised would never happen.

What is a very small number by the way? 1% of all goods to be checked would still be hundreds of vehicles being checked every week at least.
 
If they're already going half way by keeping NI in the single market then why won't the stupid c*nts keep them in the customs union and solve every problem? Christ.
 
balaks said:


Think this sums it up quite well.
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Surely at some point both Johnson & the EU are going to realize that Brexit isn't achievable without the backstop or some kind of alternative.

There's simply no way to have a hard border between ROI & the north, which makes a no deal Brexit impossible without violating WTO rules & regulations as far as I can see.
 
The whole "consent of NI Executive and Assembly" is a total misnomer which basically translates to the consent of Unionists given the requirement for cross community majorities to opt in to the renewal every 4 years.
 
Raulduke said:
The whole "consent of NI Executive and Assembly" is a total misnomer which basically translates to the consent of Unionists given the requirement for cross community majorities to opt in to the renewal every 4 years.
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what happens if the northern ireland assembly isnt sitting as well - because lets be honest given how long its not been sitting for now its not hard to imagine a situation where it completly breaks down again in the future...

thats said i cant see these proposals lasting the day before the EU have shot them to pieces
 
Klopper76 said:
Surely at some point both Johnson & the EU are going to realize that Brexit isn't achievable without the backstop or some kind of alternative.

There's simply no way to have a hard border between ROI & the north, which makes a no deal Brexit impossible without violating WTO rules & regulations as far as I can see.
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:confused: Pretty sure the EU have known that from the very start.
 
sun_tzu said:
what happens if the northern ireland assembly isnt sitting as well - because lets be honest given how long its not been sitting for now its not hard to imagine a situation where it completly breaks down again in the future...

thats said i cant see these proposals lasting the day before the EU have shot them to pieces
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That's exactly it, the DUP would have a veto within the assembly via the petition of concern and failing that could just collapse the assembly to let the renewal lapse.
 
If they had a self-reliant, working majority they could have gone for a NI-only backstop on the provision that it gets accepted by the Northern Irish in a referendum. But the DUP and some hardcore nationalists within their own party won't let them do that, as they'll see it as ceding territory to the EU.

They're snookered at the moment, with no deal as their only way out.
 
Raulduke said:
The whole "consent of NI Executive and Assembly" is a total misnomer which basically translates to the consent of Unionists given the requirement for cross community majorities to opt in to the renewal every 4 years.
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Exactly - it's a deal done with the DUP on the assurance that they veto the entire thing as soon as possible.
 
Do we have any pro-brexit folk here that can shine any light on how this is actually a great deal?
 
Asked what would happen in regards to the border and border checks if Northern Ireland’s democratic institutions voted to end regulatory alignment with the EU, the official said: “That’s a discussion we will have closer to the time.”

That right there sums up how ridiculous this government is. Just imagine how much tempers will flare when that inevitably happens.
 
Smores said:
Asked what would happen in regards to the border and border checks if Northern Ireland’s democratic institutions voted to end regulatory alignment with the EU, the official said: “That’s a discussion we will have closer to the time.”

That right there sums up how ridiculous this government is.
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'Closer to the time'? They do realise it's already October? Perhaps somebody could point them in the direction of a calender?
 
https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-19-5978_en.htm

Statement by the European Commission following President Jean-Claude Juncker's phone call with Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Brussels, 2 October 2019

President Jean-Claude Juncker spoke to Prime Minister Johnson on the phone this afternoon. The Prime Minister informed the President about the contents of the UK's latest proposal – which includes a legal text, explanatory note and letter from Prime Minister Johnson.

President Juncker welcomed Prime Minister Johnson's determination to advance the talks ahead of the October European Council and make progress towards a deal. He acknowledged the positive advances, notably with regards to the full regulatory alignment for all goods and the control of goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain. However, the President also noted that there are still some problematic points that will need further work in the coming days, notably with regards to the governance of the backstop. The delicate balance struck by the Good Friday Agreement must be preserved. Another concern that needs to be addressed are the substantive customs rules. He also stressed that we must have a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop: preventing a hard border, preserving North-South cooperation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU's Single Market and Ireland's place in it.

President Juncker confirmed to Prime Minister Johnson that the Commission will now examine the legal text objectively, and in light of our well-known criteria.

The EU wants a deal. We remain united and ready to work 24/7 to make this happen – as we have been for over three years now.

Next steps

Meetings between the EU and UK negotiation teams will take place in Brussels over the coming days.

In keeping with the EU's transparency policy, we will inform the European Parliament and the Council at every step of the way. The European Commission's Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his team will update the European Parliament and the Council this evening. President Juncker will also speak to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and will listen carefully to his views.

 


The responses to this tweet are quite fascinating. There's people in their that don't want a free trade agreement with the EU :lol:
 
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