Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Buster15 said:
I agree with everything you said apart from the word 'educated'.
I prefer the word 'informed'.
Educated suggests that people have learnt about the 'bleedin obvious' inherent difficulties with a major country like the UK leaving a highly complex and regulated organisation like the EU.
Even without the added complexities associated with Ireland/NI, getting to a position of a mutually satisfied outcome was never going to happen.
But. So many people are utterly sick and fed up of Brexit, more and more people are turning off and think that Boris 'get Brexit done' actually means something.
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I’m guessing that by now, most people have tried to imagine what BrExit would practically mean for them and their family; financially and culturally.

Eg: public sector, FTSE, SME and independent business owners would have examined the supply chain and employment impact. Presumably they would also have communicated that to their staff and suppliers.

people should have hypothesised about any impact on their savings, investments or property. Parents should have understood what implications it has for their children. Young people should know about how it impacts future career paths.

If everyone has done this, then i can’t understand why they would want to leave.
 
The Financial Times assessment of the numbers for/against Johnson's deal, they think it will be tight. I'm not convinced they'll get 20 ex-conservatives or that none of the hardliners will peel off with the DUP, apparently the Tories think they'll get more than 7 Labour though.

 
Interesting, might convince some Labour MPs to abstain rather than vote for the deal as the only reason would is they think it would improve their reelection chances.

 
What I don't understand here: everyone is losing their shit about the political declaration. It's a non-binding piece of paper.
 
So why is it the eu 27 dont put their votes through parliament? Ayes to the left and all that? All seems rather sheepish to me.
 
Regardless of whether the deal goes through or not, securing it makes a Tory GE win far more likely doesn't it? By which I mean "vote for us and our deal to get on with Brexit" seems like a better election platform than "I've just crashed us out of the EU and all hell has broken loose" or "I've failed to secure Brexit and failed to secure a deal, please vote for me anyway"?
 
the British press spinning the EUs statement to suggest they won't give an extension is worrying me

feels like Boris is lubing everyone up for a no deal
 
So May's dog of a deal is now a dog with fleas. Excellent.
 
MadMike said:
They will, I believe. The tricky bit is getting it through Westminster first though.
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Most wont, foreign policy isn't something that you vote on regularly and we are not talking about a new treaty.
 
NWRed said:
The Financial Times assessment of the numbers for/against Johnson's deal, they think it will be tight. I'm not convinced they'll get 20 ex-conservatives or that none of the hardliners will peel off with the DUP, apparently the Tories think they'll get more than 7 Labour though.

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I'd be suprised if they got 20 of the former Tories he sacked.
 
sammsky1 said:
I’m guessing that by now, most people have tried to imagine what BrExit would practically mean for them and their family; financially and culturally.

Eg: public sector, FTSE, SME and independent business owners would have examined the supply chain and employment impact. Presumably they would also have communicated that to their staff and suppliers.

people should have hypothesised about any impact on their savings, investments or property. Parents should have understood what implications it has for their children. Young people should know about how it impacts future career paths.

If everyone has done this, then i can’t understand why they would want to leave.
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You are quite obviously someone who thinks about things in a factual sense as opposed to the many who simply don't think for themselves.
I absolutely agree with your last paragraph. But much as I would support a second referendum I cannot see it happening.
 
Buster15 said:
Totally agree. Easily the most common sense option.
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I can't even fathom how anyone could think voting for Boris deal is common sense. It would be an act equivalent to the Lib dems turning on their own voters to join the Tory government.

It's telling that it's mainly the Labour MPs stepping down that are saying they'll vote leave. I'd be very surprised if they dont get favourable jobs in the future.
 
I reckon it's going through. And with more of a margin than most think.

Sturgeon reckons Labour are making all the noises about opposing it, 3 line whip and all that, but are not too bothered if it passes.
Also I am beginning to think that more than the declared Brexit supporters on the Labour benches will vote it through or at least abstain.
Something seems to have gone down because Gove was absolutely adamant that there won't be a 2nd Referendum when he was talking with Andrew Neil yesterday - like he was more sure of that than anything else in his life (or maybe just pissed). However, we now find that the remainers have shelved the idea of tabling a motion for it for tomorrow.
Also Corbyn slating the deal for all manner of reasons at 10:45 yesterday when the text of it was only published at 11:15.
The DUP are opposing probably under threat from extremists - which BJ probably understands and accepts.

There is a large element of behind the scenes stage managing here I think.

Or maybe I'm getting all conspiratorial because I haven't had my Weetabix yet. :nervous:
 
Honest John said:
I reckon it's going through. And with more of a margin than most think.

Sturgeon reckons Labour are making all the noises about opposing it, 3 line whip and all that, but are not too bothered if it passes.
Also I am beginning to think that more than the declared Brexit supporters on the Labour benches will vote it through or at least abstain.
Something seems to have gone down because Gove was absolutely adamant that there won't be a 2nd Referendum when he was talking with Andrew Neil yesterday - like he was more sure of that than anything else in his life (or maybe just pissed). However, we now find that the remainers have shelved the idea of tabling a motion for it for tomorrow.
Also Corbyn slating the deal for all manner of reasons at 10:45 yesterday when the text of it was only published at 11:15.
The DUP are opposing probably under threat from extremists - which BJ probably understands and accepts.

There is a large element of behind the scenes stage managing here I think.

Or maybe I'm getting all conspiratorial because I haven't had my Weetabix yet. :nervous:
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No I think you're right. I think the deal passing is probably good for labour. The UK essentially stays in the EU til the end of 2020 at a minimum and they get their GE where they're not the bad guys who've given the UK this god awful deal. It's an awful deal and when people start to see how awful it is labour can potentially ramp up the idea of a 2nd ref.
 
Steven Seagull said:
So Labour will either be seen as responsible for no deal or no Brexit. Awful stance to take. Agree to Boris’ deal and live to fight another day
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Buster15 said:
Totally agree. Easily the most common sense option.
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It would be utterly insane for Labour to support Johnson's deal.

Electorally:
1. 75% of Labour voters in 2017 voted remian in 2016
2. Johnson getting a deal through reunites the insane and centrist wings of the Tory party behind him and neuters the Brexit Party threat, giving him at least 40% in the next GE.
3. Labour voting for Johnson's deal means driving Labour voters who've switch to Lib Dem further into their camp, possibly permanently (definitely while Corbyn is leader), and maybe forces more enthusiastic remainers to the Lib Dems at least temporarily.

Politically:
1. Voting for Johnson's deal means giving an extreme right wing government control of deciding what consumer and workers rights will be retained when EU law no longer applies in the UK.
2. It gives an extreme right wing government control of striking trade deals first with the EU, then with hostile foreign nations, where things environmental protections and food standards will be on the line.
3. It gives an extreme right wing government the opportunity to basically sell the NHS to the US in exchange for Trump's 'great trade deal'.
 
Smores said:
I can't even fathom how anyone could think voting for Boris deal is common sense. It would be an act equivalent to the Lib dems turning on their own voters to join the Tory government.

It's telling that it's mainly the Labour MPs stepping down that are saying they'll vote leave. I'd be very surprised if they dont get favourable jobs in the future.
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How many Labour MPs do you think will vote for it? Think 3 have already said they will (Mann, Campbell, Fitzpatrick) and then you have the likes of De Piero, Kinnock, Nandy who probably will. I think they could end up with around 8 or 9 Labour MPs.
 
Massive Spanner said:
No I think you're right. I think the deal passing is probably good for labour. The UK essentially stays in the EU til the end of 2020 at a minimum and they get their GE where they're not the bad guys who've given the UK this god awful deal. It's an awful deal and when people start to see how awful it is labour can potentially ramp up the idea of a 2nd ref.
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No way there will be a second Referendum after the deal passes. If there is to be a second Referendum at all it will have to be before any deal passes.
 
Wibble said:
I'd be suprised if they got 20 of the former Tories he sacked.
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I won't be. They had the whip removed because they were completely against No Deal. This is a deal so it's in line with their original principles and Boris unfortunately has the leverage of being able to invite them back into the party and put it all behind them if they promise to vote for his deal.

If I had to guess what will happen now, I'd say that he's going to get enough of the 21 back on board and get his deal through parliament with the help of some Labour rebels and we will leave the EU on 31st October.

He's then going to call a General Election after we have left the EU and The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems will once against be absolutely irrelevant and centrist remainers will move back to the Tories thinking that it was Brexit that brought the worst out of them and "all that is behind us now" because the party is reunited again with "sensible moderates" like Hammond and Rudd back in the party.

Tories are going to win the next GE with 340+ seats and Boris will reform his cabinet with more establishment types in an attempt to be taken seriously once more. People will buy into it for 2 or 3 years until they realise their faces are still being chewed by exactly the same leopard.
 
Rooney24 said:
So what does he need? 10 Labour MPs more or less?
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287 Tory MPs, needs 320 votes, so another 33. That is assuming all Tory MPs vote for it.

People say around 15 or so of the Tory rebels will vote for it. A few independents. So it really comes down to how many Labour MPs can hold their nerve.
 
Pexbo said:
I won't be. They had the whip removed because they were completely against No Deal. This is a deal so it's in line with their original principles and Boris unfortunately has the leverage of being able to invite them back into the party and put it all behind them if they promise to vote for his deal.

If I had to guess what will happen now, I'd say that he's going to get enough of the 21 back on board and get his deal through parliament with the help of some Labour rebels and we will leave the EU on 31st October.

He's then going to call a General Election after we have left the EU and The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems will once against be absolutely irrelevant and centrist remainers will move back to the Tories thinking that it was Brexit that brought the worst out of them and "all that is behind us now" because the party is reunited again with "sensible moderates" like Hammond and Rudd back in the party.

Tories are going to win the next GE with 340+ seats and Boris will reform his cabinet with more establishment types in an attempt to be taken seriously once more. People will buy into it for 2 or 3 years until they realise their faces are still being chewed by exactly the same leopard.
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If we leave on the 31st with a deal and enter the transitional arrangement, can A50 still be revoked or will that ship have sailed?
 
Pexbo said:
I won't be. They had the whip removed because they were completely against No Deal. This is a deal so it's in line with their original principles and Boris unfortunately has the leverage of being able to invite them back into the party and put it all behind them if they promise to vote for his deal.

If I had to guess what will happen now, I'd say that he's going to get enough of the 21 back on board and get his deal through parliament with the help of some Labour rebels and we will leave the EU on 31st October.

He's then going to call a General Election after we have left the EU and The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems will once against be absolutely irrelevant and centrist remainers will move back to the Tories thinking that it was Brexit that brought the worst out of them and "all that is behind us now" because the party is reunited again with "sensible moderates" like Hammond and Rudd back in the party.

Tories are going to win the next GE with 340+ seats and Boris will reform his cabinet with more establishment types in an attempt to be taken seriously once more. People will buy into it for 2 or 3 years until they realise their faces are still being chewed by exactly the same leopard.
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I hope you are wrong but I'm constantly stunned that people keep electing right wing feckwits who plainly have no interest at all in not reaming everyone without lube for their own enrichment.
 
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