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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Kinsella said:
I mentioned the rate, not the overall numbers.
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Except places with high rates of immigration won't have low numbers of immigrants for very long will they.

The article below provides actual data on net migration and percentage leave vote, showing that the areas with the highest net migration voted remain and the areas with the lowest net migration voted leave. The main reason for this is because it isn't immigration that drove the leave vote but rather the fear of immigration, driven by the right wing media and fake news on social media.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...migration-fears-were-paradoxical-but-decisive

I did find this data from the economist:

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It does show that places with the highest rates of change in foreign born population voted leave by the largest amounts, but it also shows that places where rate of change was negative also voted leave by large amounts.

Looking at these two graphs the negative correlation on the first graph is greater and stronger than the positive correlation on the second, lending support to the argument that it's the fear or perception of immigration that led to high leave votes rather than the experience of it.
 
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Kinsella said:
The vast majority of unionists will never happily concede to it. If they did they wouldn't be unionists. The best one can hope for is a begrudging acceptance of it, and if the break up of the UK is inevitable (which I believe it is) then Scotland going first is the best way to achieve that.
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Still can't understand the obsession with a united Ireland. Im in a close to border town here and everyone i speak to that lives in ireland says we would stupid to vote for a united Ireland.

I just hope we get accurate facts and figures and people actually make an informed decision.
 
Pexbo said:
We’re aware of our lefty bubble. The trouble is that you get a lot of people in rural areas who experience the country through the lens of the Mail, Sun and Express and they genuinely think the country is being “overrun”. If you ask them when they last saw a Muslim in their little country village or even when they last met one in real life they wouldn’t have an answer for you. Yet their impression is that it’s some sort of cultural war going on and that it’s somehow having an impact of their life. It’s madness. These people have absolutely zero awareness that they are living within a bubble and that the things they are being told are happening aren’t really happening. If they didn’t read the paper they wouldn’t know to think this way.
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This is accurate. I'm in NE Somerset, which is definitely the whitest and least multi-cultural place I've ever lived (despite the largely mutlicultural Bristol just being 12 miles to the north). Yet, people around here are racist as feck. I just can't understand how you can harbour hatred and intolerance for multiculturalism when you're not even experiencing multiculturalism. Well, I don't understand bigotry and intolerance generally, but it's more maddening when it's not even part of your Little Englander bubble.
 
Whatever happened to people's stockpiles of food and essentials they got in before the last deadline? Anyone still got cupboards and attics full of stuff, or maybe you've used it all since? Anyone planning to stockpile again before the next deadline? I've heard toilet rolls may sell out pretty fast.
 
Kinsella said:
It evidently does, and in this case - did, have a real impact.



As I recall, the Leave vote was higher in those areas which experienced higher rates of immigration.



What does being a 'bastion of a liberal progressive society' involve to you?
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The leave vote didn't correlate with levels of immigration.
 
OnlyTwoDaSilvas said:
This is accurate. I'm in NE Somerset, which is definitely the whitest and least multi-cultural place I've ever lived (despite the largely mutlicultural Bristol just being 12 miles to the north). Yet, people around here are racist as feck. I just can't understand how you can harbour hatred and intolerance for multiculturalism when you're not even experiencing multiculturalism. Well, I don't understand bigotry and intolerance generally, but it's more maddening when it's not even part of your Little Englander bubble.
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Actually this is a pretty common phenomenon. Research has consistently shown people to have more tolerant attitudes to multiculturalism and immigration in areas where it’s most common.

So it’s hardly surprising that the opposite is true in areas you’ve described, especially if their sole experience of it is reading the dog-whistling fear-mongering in the right wing papers, or witnessing terror attacks almost exclusive to the big cities.

Its essentially a fear of the unknown for them.
 
Klopper76 said:
It'll get passed too with Jonson's new majority.
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Yes, he can afford a few dissenters (or even a few dozen). I'm an ardent remainer, but this seems to be what people want in the UK, so let them have it.

The woman I spoke to after the referendum who wanted to get rid of immigrants will be disappointed, though. She thought that people who are of Pakistani and Indian heritage would get "sent back" (notwithstanding their British passports). So mind-numbingly stupid and ignorant and horrible.
 
Penna said:
Yes, he can afford a few dissenters (or even a few dozen). I'm an ardent remainer, but this seems to be what people want in the UK, so let them have it.

The woman I spoke to after the referendum who wanted to get rid of immigrants will be disappointed, though. She thought that people who are of Pakistani and Indian heritage would get "sent back" (notwithstanding their British passports). So mind-numbingly stupid and ignorant and horrible.
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A lot will be disappointed when they see African and Asian faces on their street after Brexit.
 
Kaos said:
Actually this is a pretty common phenomenon. Research has consistently shown people to have more tolerant attitudes to multiculturalism and immigration in areas where it’s most common.

So it’s hardly surprising that the opposite is true in areas you’ve described, especially if their sole experience of it is reading the dog-whistling fear-mongering in the right wing papers, or witnessing terror attacks almost exclusive to the big cities.

Its essentially a fear of the unknown for them.
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I'm originally from West Yorkshire, where there are large Asian communities within a lot of the towns surrounding Leeds, and racial tension is rather prominent. I absolutely don't condone it, racism of any kind is abhorrent, but to me it at least makes sense why racism exists in areas where people supposedly feel threatened by communities of non-white people.

So to move to the south west, in one of the whitest areas I've ever experienced and for people to still be racist still seems baffling to me.
 
Penna said:
Yes, he can afford a few dissenters (or even a few dozen). I'm an ardent remainer, but this seems to be what people want in the UK, so let them have it.

The woman I spoke to after the referendum who wanted to get rid of immigrants will be disappointed, though. She thought that people who are of Pakistani and Indian heritage would get "sent back" (notwithstanding their British passports). So mind-numbingly stupid and ignorant and horrible.
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What can you say in reply to such ignorant stupidity? Those people won't ever be happy in life. Even if everyone different suddenly disappeared she'd still have someone else to hate for some inexplicable reason.
 
NWRed said:
Except places with high rates of immigration won't have low numbers of immigrants for very long will they.

The article below provides actual data on net migration and percentage leave vote, showing that the areas with the highest net migration voted remain and the areas with the lowest net migration voted leave. The main reason for this is because it isn't immigration that drove the leave vote but rather the fear of immigration, driven by the right wing media and fake news on social media.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...migration-fears-were-paradoxical-but-decisive

I did find this data from the economist:

20160716_woc890.png


It does show that places with the highest rates of change in foreign born population voted leave by the largest amounts, but it also shows that places where rate of change was negative also voted leave by large amounts.

Looking at these two graphs the negative correlation on the first graph is greater and stronger than the positive correlation on the second, lending support to the argument that it's the fear or perception of immigration that led to high leave votes rather than the experience of it.
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Without knowing which economic areas the graph relates to makes it rather meaningless IMHO. I would postulate a view that the majority of remain relates to metropolitan areas e.g. London, Manchester, Liverpool etc that have in general terms have been granted an exorbitant amount of UK resources in comparison to more rural or old industrial areas of the UK. Consequently immigration is viewed as a total positive in those regions.... just look what it does to house prices. Not the same in places like Boston or rural locations where wages are usually below the average.
 
Virgil said:
Without knowing which economic areas the graph relates to makes it rather meaningless IMHO. I would postulate a view that the majority of remain relates to metropolitan areas e.g. London, Manchester, Liverpool etc that have in general terms have been granted an exorbitant amount of UK resources in comparison to more rural or old industrial areas of the UK. Consequently immigration is viewed as a total positive in those regions.... just look what it does to house prices. Not the same in places like Boston or rural locations where wages are usually below the average.
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Seeing as it's just speculation with no evidence it's kind of pointless to comment, but if your theory is true then it would just provide evidence for those who say working class Brexit voters have been conned, as it shows that actual problem is austerity not immigration.
 
Klopper76 said:
What can you say in reply to such ignorant stupidity? Those people won't ever be happy in life. Even if everyone different suddenly disappeared she'd still have someone else to hate for some inexplicable reason.
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Yes, they'll always hate "the others". It's inexplicable.
 
NWRed said:
Seeing as it's just speculation with no evidence it's kind of pointless to comment, but if your theory is true then it would just provide evidence for those who say working class Brexit voters have been conned, as it shows that actual problem is austerity not immigration.
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No it does not. It shows the actual problem as where the available money has been spent. The reality has been that austerity has never been equally felt across the country. Metropolitan areas have not really experienced it at all.... all IMHO which is worth nowt. For example the recession and austerity were well under way in 2010 but did London experience any in 2012 with the Olympics......like feck they did
 
Virgil said:
No it does not. It shows the actual problem as where the available money has been spent. The reality has been that austerity has never been equally felt across the country. Metropolitan areas have not really experienced it at all.... all IMHO which is worth nowt. For example the recession and austerity were well under way in 2010 but did London experience any in 2012 with the Olympics......like feck they did
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Metropolitan areas absolutely have felt the impact of austerity. Glasgow's time traveled back to the early 80s, Cardiff's a shithole again, Bristol's in some state...admittedly Manchester seems to be thriving but I rarely spend long enough to notice. There are homeless people sleeping rough in every city in numbers I have never seen in my lifetime.
 
Grinner said:
It's funny how all that drama in the commons during the summer was just a giant waste of time.
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At least we'll always have the memory of how stupid Boris looked when he lost that record number of votes. And how we laughed at 'Brexit means Brexit'. The best was 'Gerronwivit' though, I just split my sides every time someone posted that one, it never got old.
 
Virgil said:
No it does not. It shows the actual problem as where the available money has been spent. The reality has been that austerity has never been equally felt across the country. Metropolitan areas have not really experienced it at all.... all IMHO which is worth nowt. For example the recession and austerity were well under way in 2010 but did London experience any in 2012 with the Olympics......like feck they did
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Your (unsubstantiated) point was that areas with relatively high investment voted remain, whereas areas with relatively low investment voted leave. If that is true, then given that the areas you claimed received higher investment also have higher levels of immigration, it completely backs up the argument that the problem was austerity and not immigration.
 
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Penna said:
Yes, he can afford a few dissenters (or even a few dozen). I'm an ardent remainer, but this seems to be what people want in the UK, so let them have it.

The woman I spoke to after the referendum who wanted to get rid of immigrants will be disappointed, though. She thought that people who are of Pakistani and Indian heritage would get "sent back" (notwithstanding their British passports). So mind-numbingly stupid and ignorant and horrible.
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Exactly the arguments I've had with loads around my area to.

They are convinced that immigration will fall drastically and they'll be able to get rid of the Asians around the area.

They openly say this to me, despite the fact my grandparents would have been subjected to the same racist shite they are spouting. If ever I need to realise how the country got into this mess, 5 minutes back in my hometown informs me well enough.
 
Weren't the Commons *3 votes* short of backing a Customs Union to stop a No Deal. Every Lib Dem except Norman Lamb (for) and Ed Davey (against) abstained. While Change UK and Caroline Lucas voted against
 
Fingeredmouse said:
Metropolitan areas absolutely have felt the impact of austerity. Glasgow's time traveled back to the early 80s, Cardiff's a shithole again, Bristol's in some state...admittedly Manchester seems to be thriving but I rarely spend long enough to notice. There are homeless people sleeping rough in every city in numbers I have never seen in my lifetime.
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Manchester is on its arse, mate. Ignore the hipster cafes and huge rise in property 'value' in the wealthy suburbs and look at the rest of it. Massive homelessness problem, crime and drugs everywhere and no police presence as central government has repeatedly cut funding.

Maybe by 'metropolitan areas' he just means 'London'.
 
Charlie Foley said:
This guy on was my EU law professor if anyone wants to listen to him discuss Brexit for 5 minutes on Irish radio
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Yes, don't disagree with anything he said.
Although most of it should be obvious, obvious things have clearly been overlooked in Britain since the beginning of this farce.

Episode 1 part two soon to start, could be even more farcical than the first bit.
 
NWRed said:
Your (unsubstantiated) point was that areas with relatively high investment voted remain, whereas areas with relatively low investment voted leave. If that is true, then given that the areas you claimed received higher investment also have higher levels of immigration, it completely backs up the argument that the problem was austerity and not immigration.
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It's actually both, and they're interlinked. People see the effects of austerity, whilst also seeing people coming into the country, taking 'their' jobs, houses, school and hospital places, and they believe the reason they have nothing is that it' s being given to foreigners. They think the reason their pensions are under threat is because people are crossing the channel on dinghies and being given free houses, benefits and schooling. It's why Foreign Aid is so often criticsised by Brexit voters, because they think that if we didn't have a Foreign Aid budget then we'd have loads of money for domestic areas.

The right-wing media is the catalyst for people to blame immigration for the issues caused by austerity, it's why the Tories are so pro-brexit, because it gives them a scapegoat to direct people's anger towards their own failings.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes, don't disagree with anything he said.
Although most of it should be obvious, obvious things have clearly been overlooked in Britain since the beginning of this farce.

Episode 1 part two soon to start, could be even more farcical than the first bit.
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Agreed. Nothing particularly groundbreaking but I’ve enjoyed checking in on his writing/interviews every so often as it’s nice to hear a reasoned, well-informed opinion on it. Can take much of what he says to the bank too, he knows his shit
 
C3Pique said:
It's actually both, and they're interlinked. People see the effects of austerity, whilst also seeing people coming into the country, taking 'their' jobs, houses, school and hospital places, and they believe the reason they have nothing is that it' s being given to foreigners. They think the reason their pensions are under threat is because people are crossing the channel on dinghies and being given free houses, benefits and schooling. It's why Foreign Aid is so often criticsised by Brexit voters, because they think that if we didn't have a Foreign Aid budget then we'd have loads of money for domestic areas.

The right-wing media is the catalyst for people to blame immigration for the issues caused by austerity, it's why the Tories are so pro-brexit, because it gives them a scapegoat to direct people's anger towards their own failings.
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Unless I've misunderstood you you're saying exactly the same thing I did, people are suffering because of austerity but mistakenly blame immigration.

I didn't state it in my post but this is obviously due to the right wing press, misleading online campaigns like vote leave and people like Farage.
 
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