SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

golden_blunder said:
In terms of this virus, will it be a one time deal or are we likely to see it come back year after year like the common cold or flu? Is it something that can lie dormant in your system to awaken every year; thus causing panic every year?
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It's not yet known. If it survives the summer then you have to assume it will return next winter.

There are reports of previously cured people re-testing positive, but when you look into them, they were considered cured after something like 2 or 3 days i.e they obviously weren't. There's no solid evidence of it reactivating in people.
 
Been in bed since yesterday morning with a fever and sore chest. Not much coughing or that though. Feel a bit brighter today. Almost wish this was covid-19 and I've gotten over it. Worst yet to come it seems.
 
Ok, so I'm not the panicky type, but looking at the numbers so far it looks like this is going to leave a pretty solid mark on humanity. Not Spanish Flu levels obviously, but still significant.

If you look at the numbers, more than 3% of confirmed cases end up in death. However, these are just confirmed cases so the actual death rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2%. As far as the rate of infection/spread goes, I've seen numbers ranging from 10% to 70%, with 20% to 40% being the most likely outcome.

With the numbers above in mind that means that best case scenario(1% death rate, 10% of the world infected) leads to 7.8 million dead over the next year or so, just from this virus strain. That is pretty damn significant, no? The worst case scenario is almost 110 million dead. Probably higher, seeing as a 70% infected rate would break down a lot of infrastructure.
 
@Arruda Spoke to my colleague. Says the situation in Shanghai was always calm. There were only about 300 infections with 70 still in the hospital. People have been returning to work but social activities have been largely non-existant.

Like I've said time and time again, if we went into (even part) isolation now, we'd stop this virus before it could get any worse. We won't and its really stupid. Only Wuhan in China seems to be massively affected - the rest quarantined in good time and managed to control the virus. Quite clearly mass lockdowns are the ONLY way to effectively stop this infection.
 
muller said:
I would happily ridicule all religions to be honest, not just Christianity.

I just don’t think it has a place in politics anymore. It’s 2020. Leaders use their “gods” to get away with all manner of crap.
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Just as a general point, if you're a religious person it has a place in every aspect of your life. If you happen to be a politician who's a religious person, you're going to pray for help in making the right decisions at a time like this. It doesn't mean you're going to disregard science.
 
OleBoiii said:
Ok, so I'm not the panicky type, but looking at the numbers so far it looks like this is going to leave a pretty solid mark on humanity. Not Spanish Flu levels obviously, but still significant.

If you look at the numbers, more than 3% of confirmed cases end up in death. However, these are just confirmed cases so the actual death rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2%. As far as the rate of infection/spread goes, I've seen numbers ranging from 10% to 70%, with 20% to 40% being the most likely outcome.

With the numbers above in mind that means that best case scenario(1% death rate, 10% of the world infected) leads to 7.8 million dead over the next year or so, just from this virus strain. That is pretty damn significant, no? The worst case scenario is almost 110 million dead. Probably higher, seeing as a 70% infected rate would break down a lot of infrastructure.
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Nah. I really don't think this is the killer virus its made out to be. South Korea has handled this brilliantly thus far and they're displaying a 0.56% mortality rate.
 
Racist thugs assault Singaporean in London because they thought he had corona virus



I don't understand why you'd punch someone with the virus and end up giving it to yourself. Racists really are some of the stupidest people in society.
 
fergieisold said:
Handled what brilliantly? They've got over 5000 cases!
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That's hardly their fault. Being so close China would mean a lot of travel between both countries and I imagine by the time Wuhan was going through its crisis, nearby countries had already developed undetected cases - South Korea included. They've upped their game and have tested thousands upon thousands (for free), and I'm betting they've identified most cases as quickly as possible. They've placed most of the country in isolation as well.
 
OleBoiii said:
Ok, so I'm not the panicky type, but looking at the numbers so far it looks like this is going to leave a pretty solid mark on humanity. Not Spanish Flu levels obviously, but still significant.

If you look at the numbers, more than 3% of confirmed cases end up in death. However, these are just confirmed cases so the actual death rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2%. As far as the rate of infection/spread goes, I've seen numbers ranging from 10% to 70%, with 20% to 40% being the most likely outcome.

With the numbers above in mind that means that best case scenario(1% death rate, 10% of the world infected) leads to 7.8 million dead over the next year or so, just from this virus strain. That is pretty damn significant, no? The worst case scenario is almost 110 million dead. Probably higher, seeing as a 70% infected rate would break down a lot of infrastructure.
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Those numbers make a few assumptions:

1. It's allowed to circulate freely without any containment measures.
2. It survives the summer unhindered, which almost all coronaviruses fail to do.
3. No vaccination or treatment plan is known - a lot of those deaths were early on when nobody knew what they were dealing with. As time goes by treatment will improve.

I think we'll end up with about double what we have today.
 
11101 said:
Those numbers make a few assumptions:

1. It's allowed to circulate freely without any containment measures.
2. It survives the summer unhindered, which almost all coronaviruses fail to do.
3. No vaccination or treatment plan is known - a lot of those deaths were early on when nobody knew what they were dealing with. As time goes by treatment will improve.

I think we'll end up with about double what we have today.
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Am I crazy in thinking that 80,000 confirmed cases in China isn't even a lot? Its been around for 3 months (almost).
 
Penna said:
Just as a general point, if you're a religious person it has a place in every aspect of your life. If you happen to be a politician who's a religious person, you're going to pray for help in making the right decisions at a time like this. It doesn't mean you're going to disregard science.
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I'd agree if the majority of the people in that picture assumed their god would stop mass killings rather than them actually doing it.
 
muller said:
I would happily ridicule all religions to be honest, not just Christianity.

I just don’t think it has a place in society anymore. It’s 2020. Leaders use their “gods” to get away with all manner of crap.
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Fixed.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Am I crazy in thinking that 80,000 confirmed cases in China isn't even a lot? Its been around for 3 months (almost).
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It's not a huge amount but consider the measures they put in place to keep it that low. We in the West will not be able to do that.
 
Penna said:
Just as a general point, if you're a religious person it has a place in every aspect of your life. If you happen to be a politician who's a religious person, you're going to pray for help in making the right decisions at a time like this. It doesn't mean you're going to disregard science.
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That's fair enough for an individual, but It's unlikely that every single one of them are religious, or religious in the same way. I'm guessing the leader has started a 'let us pray' thing, and because he's the leader the rest are obliged to sit through it. It's simply wrong to impose that on the whole group, if some want to pray they should do it in private and not impose it on everyone else.
 
Am I being ridiculous?

A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.

I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
 
Bwuk said:
Am I being ridiculous?

A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.

I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
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No, you are not being ridiculous.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Am I crazy in thinking that 80,000 confirmed cases in China isn't even a lot? Its been around for 3 months (almost).
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People are barely allowed out of their homes most places. It's completely fecked over there so that they can contain it to that level.
 
Some fecker escaped from my local hospital yesterday because he felt better and was bored of being in isolation. Never mind the taxi driver who took him home and all the other people he might have come into contact with on the way :mad:
 
Arruda said:
You're in for a shock mate. Welcome to today.
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did i miss something?

MaxiPaxi said:
98% survived Spanish flu pandemic and yet it's estimated 50 million + died. Some epidemiologists are concerned that Covid-19 could affect 30% of the population in the first year. That's roughly 2.3bn people. Of those 2.3bn people 20% will need medical attention and 5% will need intensive care. That's 385 million people that will need intensive care and they will rely on their country's health care to adequately provide it. I don't think the world is anywhere near prepared for something like this and therefore, because of that, the mortality rate will most likely got up from what it is now. But let's say 2% of that 30% dies, that's 46+ million people dead in a year.
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30% seems a tad high for me, but OK, even using those numbers, it's still relatively small scale in comparison to the number of people not dying. i'm not saying people dying isn't a bad thing (of coruse it is), i'm just talking about the escalating panic setting in by people, who by and large, will be perfectly fine. to put it into some perspective, 50m+ people already die every year as it is, that's just a given.
 
GDaly95 said:
No, you are not being ridiculous.
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Counter point - yes he is being ridiculous. There's not been a single recorded death of anyone under the age of 10 anywhere in the world.

By all accounts the younger you are the less chance you have of catching it or of the symptoms developing into something serious.
 
People keep talking about panic but I've yet to witness anything beyond it being a regular topic of conversation. There's more panic at people panicking than anything.
 
Bwuk said:
Am I being ridiculous?

A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.

I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
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He should work from home for two weeks after he comes back. I wouldn't be 100% comfortable being around him if he immediately comes back even if the risk is limited. And regarding your baby, I can imagine it's worrisome but it doesn't seem to affect children. Belgian minister even said today that reports out of China confirmed that children under the age of 10 do not show symptons if they get the virus or something like that.
 
11101 said:
Some fecker escaped from my local hospital yesterday because he felt better and was bored of being in isolation. Never mind the taxi driver who took him home and all the other people he might have come into contact with on the way :mad:
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This should be dealt with as a criminal offense.
 
golden_blunder said:
In terms of this virus, will it be a one time deal or are we likely to see it come back year after year like the common cold or flu? Is it something that can lie dormant in your system to awaken every year; thus causing panic every year?
Click to expand...

Hard to do blanket statements with this, but generally these viruses tend to establish an equillibrium.

These are animal viruses that just adapted to humans. They are temporarily and "accidentaly" more deadly than usual, but tend to become less lethal as they evolve (and adaptive immune systems of the new host population also evolve).

Viruses reproduce very quickly. I think in this case it can be as quick as 30 minutes, a new generation. So a natural evolution process that would take millions of years large animals can take just a few weeks or months in viruses.

Evolution doesn't favour the more deadly strains.
 
stepic said:
30% seems a tad high for me, but OK, even using those numbers, it's still relatively small scale in comparison to the number of people not dying. i'm not saying people dying isn't a bad thing (of coruse it is), i'm just talking about the escalating panic setting in by people, who by and large, will be perfectly fine. to put it into some perspective, 50m+ people already die every year as it is, that's just a given.
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That's very selfish thinking. You will be fine. Your parents and grandparents might not be, and neither will the health systems as they become overwhelmed. Lombardy's health system is very similar to the NHS and is already beginning to creak with just over 1,000 cases. If it continues to escalate the most vulnerable will be hit hard both directly and indirectly.
 
Bwuk said:
Am I being ridiculous?

A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.

I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
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I was in the North Italy last week and am staying home for two weeks.

One of the guys I was travelling with is being tested as he has a cough. :nervous:
 
Thanks @Di Maria's angel

I find so stupid that most of our media focus so little in China and Korea. It's like looking into the future, so much to learn there. I hope governments are actually looking into it and learning from it.
 
The Corona virus seems comparable to the spanish flu in the case that both will probably kill around 1% of the people catching it.
So the main thing, and imo the reason why gouverments are reacting as they do, is to spread it out over time. People saying the mortality will raise if 30% of the population gets it are probably right, but only if the 30% gets sick att the same time.

China made extreme actions to stop it, that other countries might not be able to/willing to do. But i dont think its needed if we manage to spread it out over time, and then the deathrate will decrease to.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Am I crazy in thinking that 80,000 confirmed cases in China isn't even a lot? Its been around for 3 months (almost).
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Believing the numbers coming out of China is probably a different kind of crazy.
 
Bwuk said:
Am I being ridiculous?

A colleague of mine is planning on travelling throughout Japan, he leaves in a week or so. A few of us have raised concerns in our office about this as he plans just to come back to work after his travels.

I am worried as I have a 7 month old baby at home, and don't want to increase any sort of risk that he could catch the virus.
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Wouldn’t say you’re being ridiculous with the little one. I’m going out there myself for 3 weeks in April and whilst we have no plans to alter anything (May be taken out of our hands of course), we will definitely be doing a few days after. Obviously by late April you’d hope the weather will have helped a lot but also you’d expect it to be just as common over here as it is in Japan.

I’m self employed so the working from option isn’t as easy for me. But we’ve weighed up the financial risk and know as it’s our honeymoon we’d rather go and then take time off after. If we’re allowed to go by April of course!
 
Utdstar01 said:
Went to go and buy some hand sanitizer today. Everywhere had sold out. Even Amazon putting prices up crazy high.
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People are probably profiteering and it's the Amazon sellers who are setting a high price. I would suspect that some have bought from supermarkets to list on ebay at inflated prices, too.
 
Am I the only one that’s enjoying the fact that this could be my favourite book come to life?

Captain trips is here.
 
stepic said:
did i miss something?



30% seems a tad high for me, but OK, even using those numbers, it's still relatively small scale in comparison to the number of people not dying. i'm not saying people dying isn't a bad thing (of coruse it is), i'm just talking about the escalating panic setting in by people, who by and large, will be perfectly fine. to put it into some perspective, 50m+ people already die every year as it is, that's just a given.
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Looking at the number of dead is an very reductive way of looking at the dead.

Even if you look at just of the number of (potential) dead, it's far greater than what you realize. If 0.5% of people you know die this year from a new cause you will bloody well notice.

I say potential because I still have hopes this takes a turn for the better, but preparing for the worst is the only reasonable option our governments can take.

So, relating to your initial post, of course this isn't more dangerous that climate change. It's just a lot more urgent. Like "every hour counts" urgency.
 
Boris reveals there is a plan for a mass lockdown if this were to get out of hand. This is issue - why even risk letting it get out of hand? It may never reach the levels of insanity witnessed in Wuham but its possible we could see a situation similar to Italy here in the UK. Why risk it at all?

I hope our containment measures continue to work wonders.
 
711 said:
That's fair enough for an individual, but It's unlikely that every single one of them are religious, or religious in the same way. I'm guessing the leader has started a 'let us pray' thing, and because he's the leader the rest are obliged to sit through it. It's simply wrong to impose that on the whole group, if some want to pray they should do it in private and not impose it on everyone else.
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I don't disagree with that at all. After all, Jesus said don't make a big public show of praying, but do it in private.
 
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