SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101 said:
Transmission rates by people without symptoms are now thought to be small, and the other reason for that advice is that there are not enough masks. If the whole population buys them there won't be enough for the healthcare workers who really do need them.
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Masks are for secondary level contacts.

You isolate the source and their 1st level contacts. The next level down, secondary contacts, you have them wear masks and manage them with temp readings several times a day.

The other problem is that there is a 14+ days incubation period before any symptoms show up. You could also be sneezing, coughing everywhere without realising that you have the virus -- after all, 83% of carriers will only exhibit mild symptoms. The masks are for unintentional transmissions onto the elderly and the chronics.

This is the self-responsibility that needs to be encouraged; and a component of the communication and education programme that the Gov't needs to do.

The other strategy is to track, map and isolate the sources and their contacts. Develop linkages and then map it out, contact those on the map, and home isolate them. Medic Trace contact teams together with police will be the key drivers.
 
MaxiPaxi said:


Seems that's the plan to combat this virus in the US going forward. At this rate United States will become the new epicentre for Covid-19.
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Trump also said some people can go to work with the virus without problems. Great advice from the commander in chief.
 
Dumbstar said:
It's on the 10th floor. We're all a little panicky. I'm quite a few floors above so thankfully don't share the same lifts as those folk. I'm taking my laptop and going home. Feck this shit.

It's probably just flu rather than coronavirus but I hope they fire that guy or girl for coming in and costing the bank thousands on cleaning. How fecking selfish can you get when we're all given clear emails what to do when feeling ill. Stay at fecking home!! :mad:
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Am just down the road from you so interested to hear what happens!
 
MarylandMUFan said:
While I agree, I think (and hope) the number may end up under 1%. Apparently the early numbers skewed high because the only people being tested at the time were the ones having major effects from the illness which greatly skews the fatality rates.
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Most definitely. If he wasn't ignoring the issue, his statement is hardly wrong. And yeah, I reckon there are plenty (1000s) of people not being tested. Plus, South Korea demonstrates a below 1% mortality.
 
swooshboy said:
Am just down the road from you so interested to hear what happens!
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Been confirmed officially internally here. Unfortunately it wasn't today, the person had reported results to the bosses on the weekend. That means we've been at risk last week and most of this. Great.
 
sglowrider said:
Masks are for secondary level contacts.

You isolate the source and their 1st level contacts. The next level down, secondary contacts, you have them wear masks and manage them with temp readings several times a day.

The other problem is that there is a 14+ days incubation period before any symptoms show up. You could also be sneezing, coughing everywhere without realising that you have the virus -- after all, 83% of carriers will only exhibit mild symptoms. The masks are for unintentional transmissions onto the elderly and the chronics.

This is the self-responsibility that needs to be encouraged; and a component of the communication and education programme that the Gov't needs to do.

The other strategy is to track, map and isolate the sources and their contacts. Develop linkages and then map it out, contact those on the map, and home isolate them. Medic Trace contact teams together with police will be the key drivers.
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The UK is in a different stage of this to Italy obviously, but the goal once there is sustained community transmission is not to isolate all cases and try to totally eliminate every transmission. We know that is not possible and contact tracing etc becomes a waste of time. Health services move to a model that aims to eliminate only the high probability transmission cases (ie those with symptoms) and contain hotspot areas. The aim is to reduce the transmission rates below 1 rather than eliminate them completely.
 
Seen people arguing in stores about bulk buying and how selfish it is
 
Dumbstar said:
Been confirmed officially internally here. Unfortunately it wasn't today, the person had reported results to the bosses on the weekend. That means we've been at risk last week and most of this. Great.
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Imagine being a simpleton like myself who's been advocating isolations for almost a month now. Something our government fails to see. This was obvious. Lets just hope it didn't spread too much.
 
The Firestarter said:
Trump also said some people can go to work with the virus without problems. Great advice from the commander in chief.
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:lol: Fell really sorry for those that didn't vote for him. Hard to have much sympathy for those that did...
 
Lay said:
Seen people arguing in stores about bulk buying and how selfish it is
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People are getting a bit hysterical over this & some of the media reporting isn’t helping the situation. Unfortunately it looks like there will be a spike in infections over the coming weeks, but unless I’m mistaken, the guidance is that the majority of people (80%?) will suffer “mild” symptoms which hopefully means they don’t need hospital treatment. It seems the worst case scenario has been deemed the default position & there’s panic everywhere.

I know this isn’t flu & the possible ramifications are worse than flu, but there should be some common sense applied. Simple things such as limiting interaction with others who may be showing symptoms (or self isolate if you’re unwell), limit using public transport & washing hands as much as possible would probably help significantly more than panic buying & absolutely locking yourself away from society.
 
The thing with toilet rolls really is bizarre. If we're talking about stock piling for a prolonged quarantine, or even the apocalypse and breakdown of all social order, I'd be a bit more worried about having enough food, water, medicine...

If you run out of toilet rolls, use a hand towel and then wash it. Feck use your own hand then wash it. Not exactly the most critical of household products.
 
When aliens discover our planet after the apocalypse their scientists will remark how clean our anuses were.
 
This one is better...

I was sent to a Costco to see if people are stocking up (even though health officials say it’s not necessary) in case COVID-19 gets more serious here. This guy came out of the store with 16 boxes of condoms and a big jar of coconut oil. We all have priorities.
 
senorgregster said:
Apparently here people think they are going to shit more. Costco can't keep loo roll in stock. Pallets disappear in less than 10 minutes!
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Never figured this out vis a vis bog rolls running out. Who started the rumour about having constant diarrhoea? Some dark web shit? I have never read any reports about people dehydrating and dying from over-pooping.
 
711 said:
I've never liked shaking hands anyway. When I was young it was regarded as quite old-fashioned and only old people did it, but as is the way with the world it came around again and all the young people started. I'll be happy to see it gone for a while. And as for this pretend cheek kissing don't even get me started, it's bad enough when it's a relative or close friend but it's got to the point where people who are almost strangers do it. Fecking horrible.
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Two kisses on the cheeks are the norm here, everyone kisses everyone else. They get really close to you, too. Government says "no kissing, no hugging, no handshakes, stand at least a metre away from the other person." This is a major culture change for the locals.

Having said that, the old men were all sitting on the benches around the fountain this morning. They usually sit outside the little bar, but I see the proprietor has taken the tables and chairs away. :lol:
 
Christ i know the Tories are more than happy for poor people to die but i didn't expect Johnson to argue there's a case to just take it on the chin and let this spread. The people actually impacted by this are his voter base after all.
 
Dumbstar said:
Been confirmed officially internally here. Unfortunately it wasn't today, the person had reported results to the bosses on the weekend. That means we've been at risk last week and most of this. Great.
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That's not good - curious to see if any other firms will take preventative measures?
 
ha_rooney said:
People are getting a bit hysterical over this & some of the media reporting isn’t helping the situation. Unfortunately it looks like there will be a spike in infections over the coming weeks, but unless I’m mistaken, the guidance is that the majority of people (80%?) will suffer “mild” symptoms which hopefully means they don’t need hospital treatment. It seems the worst case scenario has been deemed the default position & there’s panic everywhere.

I know this isn’t flu & the possible ramifications are worse than flu, but there should be some common sense applied. Simple things such as limiting interaction with others who may be showing symptoms (or self isolate if you’re unwell), limit using public transport & washing hands as much as possible would probably help significantly more than panic buying & absolutely locking yourself away from society.
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Even if that were correct (the number requiring some kind of hospitalization is more like 50%), if it spreads to even 10% of the UK population, that's 1.5 million hospital beds required. We have 170,000...

Some of the hysteria is unwarranted and I doubt it will reach even 1% of the population, but the UK really should take this more seriously than it currently is.
 
The Firestarter said:
Trump also said some people can go to work with the virus without problems. Great advice from the commander in chief.
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Are you serious? Did he actually say that? If he did say that; then he needs to be held responsible for the eventual catastrophe that will occur.
 
barros said:
In northern Italy with more than 300 people infected and 12 deaths makes a 4% death rate, I’m surprised about Africa and south/central America no reported deaths.
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Oh. It will come there. And be far worse due to lower average physical health of each person.
Same as with surgical operation; The better condition a patient is in, the more likely he is to survive or recuperate from an operation.

Chinese cities with coal plants have a large number of inhabitants with bad lungs --> lower physical health --> Most likely to have a higher rate compared to the UK and most of Europe.
Yemen: Starved for some time now by Saudi Arabia. Significantly higher mortality rate compared to Italy. Health infrastructure has been bombed. Could get really bad.
In general: the countries with the lowest average degree of physical health also are likely to have the worst health system, it is not a good picture.

Some of the Scandinavian countries will just connect their most affected patients to a CPB(lung machine) and take them off when their lungs have recuperated (the only problem is that when you are allowing a number of flights from Northern Italy to land over the past weeks in these countries, then there will be an explosion of people in need of CPBs). And only the people with really bad physical health(Those that would have been in danger from the seasonal flu) are likely to be in any major danger. Hopefully, people won't panic and divide the medical resources away from those that are in actual mortal danger from the virus, despite the media trying to scare everyone into a frenzy.
 
11101 said:
Even if that were correct (the number requiring some kind of hospitalization is more like 50%), if it spreads to even 10% of the UK population, that's 1.5 million hospital beds required. We have 170,000...

Some of the hysteria is unwarranted and I doubt it will reach even 1% of the population, but the UK really should take this more seriously than it currently is.
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Funny you say that:

 
Di Maria's angel said:
Funny you say that:

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There are lies, damned lies and statistics and there's the Daily Mail.

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Can understand why the UK citizens are taking it less seriously than other countries there. Only the US to some extent is comparable to the UK and the people there never overreact.

Anyway this was a dig at the Daily Mail. Not at the broader point that the UK probably needs to do more in which I tend to agree. Fact that we aren't encouraging people to work from home, travel less and close schools for a couple of weeks is bemusing.
 
My conceptualization takes form.

An analogy:
- Europe is China
- Italy is Wuhan
- London, Madrid, Paris, etc, are just Xanghai, Beijing, Honk Kong

Events almost overlap, about 6 weeks later in Europe than China.

Why wasn't this fecking obvious to everyone from the start? (including me)
We think of Europe as several countries, when epidemiologically it is just one big country. We just missed the forest by focusing on the trees.

My Doomsday scenario: We will be hit a lot harder
- We didn't quarantine Italy (neither they did it there) with nearly the same speed or effectiveness that the Chinese did in Wuhan
- Our other major cities did nothing, even the slightest prevention measures (football games, masses), unlike Beijing, Xanghai, Hong Kong

We're fecked. In a matter of days, not weeks.

Acting way behind the pace of information.
 
I feel like those crazy scientists in the beggining movies like Armageddon that no one listens to.
 
Some studies mentioning that the virus could potentially attach itself to surfaces for as long as 9 days. Some say 72 hours. WHO say just 2 hours. There's still a lot of unknown.
 
FlawlessThaw said:
There are lies, damned lies and statistics and there's the Daily Mail.

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Can understand why the UK citizens are taking it less seriously than other countries there. Only the US to some extent is comparable to the UK and the people there never overreact.

Anyway this was a dig at the Daily Mail. Not at the broader point that the UK probably needs to do more in which I tend to agree. Fact that we aren't encouraging people to work from home, travel less and close schools for a couple of weeks is bemusing.
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I think we're almost at that point. We had 13 cases almost a week ago. We're now at 92 - if it grows at the same rate, we could have 650 cases next week.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
I think we're almost at that point. We had 13 cases almost a week ago. We're now at 92 - if it grows at the same rate, we could have 650 cases next week.
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More than likely. No doubt there will be masses out there unknowingly infected already.
 
The Netherlands has more than doubled in the last day too. Even more concerning there's 900 Dutch kids waiting to come home from Italy apparently.
 
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