SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Balljy]

Yeah because Swedish experts have boots on the ground in Russia for instance like, my friends and family who are absolutely more worried about the state of infrastructure, and depreciation of the ruble. Yeah, I think I'll go with me actually taking their word on this, since you know -- they're my family and they absolutely have no fecking reason to lie to me.

It's pretty obvious with Turkey who have supposedly developed their own testing system which happens to have resulted in everybody testing negative apart from one person who has died. That's obviously rubbish when you consider the area around it and the news from social media there. The same goes for other statistical anomalies - especially landlocked ones.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

I really hope some of the Chinese customs change after this is all done. fecking eating anything and everything. That video of some man feasting on live baby mice was absolutely fecking disgusting.

That's nothing compared to the shit they do to live dogs at an annual food festival. I'm not going to give details and I warn you not to look it up if you have compassion for animals.

I'm not trying to add a xenophobic slant to this thread, I went to China and was in awe of some of their culture, but the shit with the animal cruelty needs to stop.

 

[0le]

U-Turn incoming it seems.



Questions to answer if so when we were told only yesterday this wouldn’t have an effect and was not the right time.

It isn't a u-turn whatsoever. As has been explained already several times, it is about timing the responses accordingly. The science is also rarely well understood, so most of the time the "perfect answer" is never known. You are well within your rights to say you don't agree with decisions and you think things can be done differently, but calling it a u-turn is nonsense. You simply don't have a black and white situation here. It is also dynamic, so the decisions made vary as the situation changes.

 

[Paxi]

Hmm... makes you wonder if they've been warned. Although, I do think it's a bit of a stretch to be able to hide an outbreak with social media the way it is now.

They closed boarders with china fairly early, and since that I think they've did good job isolating anyone with the virus. 2 weeks at home is infinitely better than spending 5 years in a russian prison. There is pattern emerging here, countries who enforce very drastic measures, tend to arrest the spread. Look at Taiwan, Hong Kong, Romania, Russia, China. They've all did an excellent job so far.

 

[Revan]

Why you asking me that silly question then?

There's clearly people here with a dislike for the UK. Obviously others have noticed it too so not just me.

Just paranoia dude. People are saying that the UK is gonna suffer cause the government is not doing enough to slow down the disease, not 'we hate UK'.

In fact, a lot of people who are saying that are actually from UK.

 

[Skills]

Just paranoia dude. People are saying that the UK is gonna suffer cause the government is not doing enough to slow down the disease, not 'we hate UK'.

In fact, a lot of people who are saying that are actually from UK.

I.e. myself

 

[Revan]

A bit macabre.

In the bright side: it won't turn that bad. The lockdown will have an effect soon, and will slow down the spread.

On the dark side: that sheet finishes at March. It is gonna be a long, long year, and it is gonna be much worse than that.

 

[esmufc07]

It isn't a u-turn whatsoever. As has been explained already several times, it is about timing the responses accordingly. The science is also rarely well understood, so most of the time the "perfect answer" is never known. You are well within your rights to say you don't agree with decisions and you think things can be done differently, but calling it a u-turn is nonsense. You simply don't have a black and white situation here. It is also dynamic, so the decisions made vary as the situation changes.

The article describes it as a u-turn.

 

[TheReligion]

Just paranoia dude. People are saying that the UK is gonna suffer cause the government is not doing enough to slow down the disease, not 'we hate UK'.

In fact, a lot of people who are saying that are actually from UK.

Is paranoia a symptom

 

[Skills]

In the bright side: it won't turn that bad. The lockdown will have an effect soon, and will slow down the spread.

On the dark side: that sheet finishes at March. It is gonna be a long, long year, and it is gonna be much worse than that.

The sheet also falls apart as soon as the number of infections exceeds testing capacity. We don't know how quick or slow the spread will be, how effective the actions are going. Sadly, it seems like the only reliable data soon enough will be the daily no. of deaths.

 

[The Firestarter]

What's a boarder and how do you close it?

 

[Revan]

Is paranoia a symptom

I think so. In order to not spread the infection, please stay home as much as possible for the next few months

 

[massi83]

They've retreated to the jungle where they're unbeaten in 6.

Thanks for useless response. Quick google tells the cases in Paracas are 2 Italians and 1 Peruvian who resides in Italy. Are there newer cases in addition or were you totally wrong also?

 

[Dante]

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the response from the British government, we're at a much earlier stage than almost anybody else in Europe.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop
Italy	17,660	+2,547	1,266	+250	1,439	14,955	1,328	292.1
Norway	995	+195	1		1	993	27	183.5
S. Korea	7,979	+110	71	+5	510	7,398	93	155.6
Denmark	801	+127			1	800	2	138.3
Iran	11,364	+1,289	514	+85	3,529	7,321		135.3
Switzerland	1,139	+271	11	+4	4	1,124		131.6
Bahrain	210	+13			44	166	1	123.4
Spain	5,232	+2,086	133	+47	193	4,906	190	111.9
Qatar	320	+58				320		111.1
Sweden	814	+127	1		1	812	2	80.6
Slovenia	141	+45				141	4	67.8
Estonia	79	+52				79		59.6
China	80,815	+1	3,177		64,152	13,486	4,020	56.1
France	3,661	+785	79	+18	12	3,570	154	56.1
Austria	504	+143	1		6	497	1	56.0
Belgium	559	+160	3		1	555	2	48.2
Netherlands	804	+190	10	+5	2	792	1	46.9
Germany	3,675	+930	8	+2	46	3,621	9	43.9
Singapore	200	+13			97	103	11	34.2
Finland	155	+46			1	154		28.0
Kuwait	100	+20			5	95	4	23.4
Greece	190	+73	1		2	187	2	18.2
Ireland	90	+20	1			89	6	18.2
Hong Kong	132	+1	4	+1	77	51	4	17.6
Israel	126	+17			4	122	2	14.6
Czechia	141	+25				141	2	13.2
UK	798	+208	11	+1	18	769	20	11.8

As has been stated numerous times, the UK will institute a lockdown when the time is right to flatten the curve. If we go too early, the country will require a another lockdown in the future and the resulting civil unrest will make the second quarantine unsuccessful.

This isn't just about best practice. It's about managing a recalcitrant population despite themselves. Brits are culturally very different from Singaporeans, and that needs to be taken into account.

 

[Revan]

The sheet also falls apart as soon as the number of infections exceeds testing capacity. We don't know how quick or slow the spread will be, how effective the actions are going. Sadly, it seems like the only reliable data soon enough will be the daily no. of deaths.

I think we will see it in around 10 days - 2 weeks. If it gets the same trend as China/S.Korea, then the number of cases will start falling around 2 weeks after the actions took place.

 

[Ian Reus]

Thanks for useless response. Quick google tells the cases in Paracas are 2 Italians and 1 Peruvian who resides in Italy. Are there newer cases in addition or were you totally wrong also?

28 in Lima.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Saw this....

I posted this before using 70%:

Herd immunity develops at around 70% coverage.

Let's run some numbers:

UK pop: 67 million

70% infected, so 47 million people

2.35 million needing ICU care (5%)

Total ICU beds in UK: 4000

Typical ICU bed occupancy rate: 75%

Typical available ICU beds: 1000

Typical duration in ICU for Covid: 2 weeks

Time required to get through Covid patients without kicking out normal ICU patients: 4700 weeks, or 90 years.

The 'herd immunity' strategy is basically the 'no ICU' strategy.

Let's not even talk about how coronaviruses typically don't result in long-term immunity.

Clearly. UK's strategy is survival of the fittest.

Glorified Eugenics.

I have strong feeling that History won't look back kindly on this strategy, nor on us for sitting back and accepting it.

 

[Paxi]

It's pretty obvious with Turkey who have supposedly developed their own testing system which happens to have resulted in everybody testing negative apart from one person who has died. That's obviously rubbish when you consider the area around it and the news from social media there. The same goes for other statistical anomalies - especially landlocked ones.

Russia is a dead end geographically, and I mean there's no connection flights, it's not a big tourist destination. So people don't tend to visit Russia unless they really have to. Which is stark difference between Turkey, who has one of the biggest airports in the world, with 200 million people coming through every year I think. So I'd be shocked if there was no cases in Turkey.
Also, Russia has strict measures in place so I have no reason to disbelieve their low numbers. And to add, again, I've immediate family living in a city with more than a million people, if the virus is in Russia they'd absolutely know about it and tell me. Things are looking good so far in Russia but it could change, all it takes is a cluster of cases.

 

[Redplane]

Read and laugh and cry:

https://statenews.com/article/2020/...EtyM3CTnRkM5JX4t8cGtMqTB4uLWpJLeT-IjnNxkSuA2k

Understand kids being kids but the bar owners are promoting it

 

[JPRouve]

What's a boarder and how do you close it?

Isn't that essentially the act of pirating?

 

[Paxi]

That's nothing compared to the shit they do to live dogs at an annual food festival. I'm not going to give details and I warn you not to look it up if you have compassion for animals.

I'm not trying to add a xenophobic slant to this thread, I went to China and was in awe of some of their culture, but the shit with the animal cruelty needs to stop.

Yeah I definitely don't want to watch that. I love cats and dogs and I know they get sold on those live markets. Obviously not all Chinese practice those horrible customs but some do, it's a fact. Hopefully, this will be a wake up call.

 

[TheReligion]

I think so. In order to not spread the infection, please stay home as much as possible for the next few months

Are you a medical professional? I'm getting Shipman vibes about this

 

[Di Maria's angel]

It isn't a u-turn whatsoever. As has been explained already several times, it is about timing the responses accordingly. The science is also rarely well understood, so most of the time the "perfect answer" is never known. You are well within your rights to say you don't agree with decisions and you think things can be done differently, but calling it a u-turn is nonsense. You simply don't have a black and white situation here. It is also dynamic, so the decisions made vary as the situation changes.

1 day? They changed their mind in 1 day. How does that have anything to do with their timing?

 

[Balljy]

Russia is a dead end geographically, and I mean there's no connection flights, it's not a big tourist destination. So people don't tend to visit Russia unless they really have to. Which is stark difference between Turkey, who has one of the biggest airports in the world, with 200 million people coming through every year I think. So I'd be shocked if there was no cases in Turkey.
Also, Russia has strict measures in place so I have no reason to disbelieve their low numbers. And to add, again, I've immediate family living in a city with more than a million people, if the virus is in Russia they'd absolutely know about it and tell me. Things a looking good so far in Russia but it could change, all it takes is a cluster of cases.

More people travel to Russia from China than China to Europe (which to be fair isn't surprising considering the border).

 

[Ian Reus]

Thanks for useless response. Quick google tells the cases in Paracas are 2 Italians and 1 Peruvian who resides in Italy. Are there newer cases in addition or were you totally wrong also?

And I was under the impression that there are 4 in paracas. A hotel manager from this morning too.

If you search paracas in this thread, you'll see I reported only 2 Italians were confirmed at the time.

 

[Paxi]

Are you a medical professional? I'm getting Shipman vibes about this

He'd have a fecking field day if he was still knocking around. He would have been probably ultra high-net-worth after this pandemic. Hope he's nice and warm in hell, the fecking maniac.

 

[Revan]

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the response from the British government, we're at a much earlier stage than almost anybody else in Europe.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop
Italy	17,660	+2,547	1,266	+250	1,439	14,955	1,328	292.1
Norway	995	+195	1		1	993	27	183.5
S. Korea	7,979	+110	71	+5	510	7,398	93	155.6
Denmark	801	+127			1	800	2	138.3
Iran	11,364	+1,289	514	+85	3,529	7,321		135.3
Switzerland	1,139	+271	11	+4	4	1,124		131.6
Bahrain	210	+13			44	166	1	123.4
Spain	5,232	+2,086	133	+47	193	4,906	190	111.9
Qatar	320	+58				320		111.1
Sweden	814	+127	1		1	812	2	80.6
Slovenia	141	+45				141	4	67.8
Estonia	79	+52				79		59.6
China	80,815	+1	3,177		64,152	13,486	4,020	56.1
France	3,661	+785	79	+18	12	3,570	154	56.1
Austria	504	+143	1		6	497	1	56.0
Belgium	559	+160	3		1	555	2	48.2
Netherlands	804	+190	10	+5	2	792	1	46.9
Germany	3,675	+930	8	+2	46	3,621	9	43.9
Singapore	200	+13			97	103	11	34.2
Finland	155	+46			1	154		28.0
Kuwait	100	+20			5	95	4	23.4
Greece	190	+73	1		2	187	2	18.2
Ireland	90	+20	1			89	6	18.2
Hong Kong	132	+1	4	+1	77	51	4	17.6
Israel	126	+17			4	122	2	14.6
Czechia	141	+25				141	2	13.2
UK	798	+208	11	+1	18	769	20	11.8

As has been stated numerous times, the UK will institute a lockdown when the time is right to flatten the curve. If we go too early, the country will require a another lockdown in the future and the resulting civil unrest will make the second quarantine unsuccessful.

This isn't just about best practice. It's about managing a recalcitrant population despite themselves. Brits are culturally very different from Singaporeans, and that needs to be taken into account.

US is even lower, so low in the number of cases, that it is not even in the table.

Essentially, if you don't test, you don't get cases.

 

[Paxi]

More people travel to Russia from China than China to Europe (which to be fair isn't surprising considering the border).

They do. Theres lots of Chinese working in Russia as well but yeah they've closed the border for the time being.

 

[Dante]

1 day? They changed their mind in 1 day. How does that have anything to do with their timing?

Everybody changes their mind in 'one day'. That's how human beings make decisions.

You think one thing is right until the situation changes and then you reevaluate.

It's only right for policy makers to change direction over time. You can't expect them to stick with a single plan from day 0 all the way to the end of the pandemic.

 

[Paxi]

What's a boarder and how do you close it?

Please don't put me on "what do we do about this?" thread.

 

[Dante]

US is even lower, so low in the number of cases, that it is not even in the table.

Essentially, if you don't test, you don't get cases.

Country​	Tests Performed	Tests per Million People	Population​		​
Bahrain​	8,354​	4,910​	1,701,575​	OFFICIAL​	source​
South Korea​	210,144​	4,099​	51,269,185​	OFFICIAL​	source​
Hong Kong​	16,000​	2,134​	7,496,981​	Estimated​	sources​
Italy​	60,761​	1,005​	60,461,826​	OFFICIAL​	source​
Switzerland​	5,000​	578​	8,654,622​	Estimated​	Mar. 3: 4,000 source​
Austria​	5,026​	558​	9,006,398​	OFFICIAL​	source​
UK​	26,261​	387​	67,886,011​	OFFICIAL​	source​
Belgium​	3,984​	344​	11,589,623​	Estimated​	Mar 9: 3,541 OFFICIAL source​
Australia​	8,278​	325​	25,499,884​	Estimated​	Mar. 8: 8,278 OFFICIAL PARTIAL source source​
Israel​	2,386​	276​	8,655,535​	Estimated​	Mar. 8: 1,771 source​
France​	11,895​	182​	65,273,511​	Estimated​	Mar. 5: 6,610 OFFICIAL source​
Finland​	720​	130​	5,540,720​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Malaysia​	3,132​	97​	32,365,999​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Japan​	9,600​	76​	126,476,461​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Netherlands​	600​	35​	17,134,872​	Estimated​	Mar. 2: 200 source​
USA​	8,554​	26​	331,002,651​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Vietnam​	2,367​	24​	97,338,579​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Turkey​	940​	11​	84,339,067​	Estimated​	As of Mar 3: 940 OFFICIAL source​

The UK's tests per million is higher than the likes of France, Netherlands and Japan, and in a completely different league from the US.

The first table is indicative for nations that test to a reasonable level, and the UK meets that level. It's not indicative for nations that barely test at all, the USA and Turkey amongst them.

 

[DOTA]

Everybody changes their mind in 'one day'. That's how human beings make decisions.

You think one thing is right until the situation changes and then you reevaluate.

It's only right for policy makers to change direction over time. You can't expect them to stick with a single plan from day 0 all the way to the end of the pandemic.

You're right.

No, wait, I've changed my mind, you're being silly.

 

[massi83]

And I was under the impression that there are 4 in paracas. A hotel manager from this morning too.

If you search paracas in this thread, you'll see I reported only 2 Italians were confirmed at the time.

Thanks Yes I don't speak spanish and found a 2 day old article that I translated. Nobody is saying it doesn't spread at all in warm and humid. Seems like a lot of cases in Peru are travel related so too early to give significance to either direction.

 

[Skills]

More people travel to Russia from China than China to Europe (which to be fair isn't surprising considering the border).

I believe they banned the flights from China and East Asia during the initial outbreak. And in the last couple of weeks, they (along with Israel) have mandated quarantines all visitors from Europe for 2 weeks.

 

[Fooza]

It isn't a u-turn whatsoever. As has been explained already several times, it is about timing the responses accordingly. The science is also rarely well understood, so most of the time the "perfect answer" is never known. You are well within your rights to say you don't agree with decisions and you think things can be done differently, but calling it a u-turn is nonsense. You simply don't have a black and white situation here. It is also dynamic, so the decisions made vary as the situation changes.

Hong Kong and Singapore's method more of prevention is more reliable science because it's been proven to work. Wasn't that the closest "perfect answer" that the government didn't bother with?

Really, I'm not falling for this one I'm afraid, any "science" terminology coming out from the government is purely political in my opinion. Unless they start showing us more of their reasoning behind their decisions.

 

[Sweet Square]

at the people on here defending the massive u turn by this shit house of a government.

 

[Dante]

at the people on here defending the massive u turn by this shit house of a government.

How is it a u-turn?

The policy has always been to let things continue as normal until cases increase. Then institute gradual measures for containment. Then gradual measures for delay. Then gradual measures for lockdown. And finally a full lockdown.

All those stages are going to be met at some point. It won't be a u-turn at each.

 

[Irwin99]

I'm not trying to add a xenophobic slant to this thread, I went to China and was in awe of some of their culture, but the shit with the animal cruelty needs to stop.

Yeah there is a similar feeling with me too in that I don't like the xenophobic prejudice this type of thing inspires... but I do wish certain cultures would practice better animal rights. That video on Wuhan and the animals there was shocking.

 

[DOTA]

How is it a u-turn?

The policy has always been to let things continue as normal until cases increase. Then institute gradual measures for containment. Then gradual measures for delay. Then gradual measures for lockdown. And finally a full lockdown.

All those stages are going to be met at some point. It won't be a u-turn at each.

Cause they said yesterday that they didn't believe banning mass gatherings would work.

 

[The Firestarter]

Isn't that essentially the act of pirating?

ahoy matey