SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

JPRouve said:
It did not caused SARS, coronaviruses are natural. The only thing that a market can be is a hub.
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The outbreak in humans was caused by the live animal market. A very close genetic variant of the virus of course existed before that outbreak, yes.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
We produce 59% of food internally in the UK, we also export enough to get that up to about 80% if we stopped exporting I think. Surely we can manage the food supply to sustain us?
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80% is still short of 100%. And assumes being able to maintain full efficiency.

Anyway, I think food supplies are probably going to be okay as they'll be treated as a priority. I'm just talking about why that would need to be so.
 
TwoSheds said:
Bullshit. The live animal markets caused SARS, they've caused this one too, it's clear as day. Shut the feckers down and the whole world will be a lot safer.
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I think that is the most likely scenario, but too many coincidences * are happening. https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

* The only biowarfare laboratory being located in Wuhan.
The original theory was that it came from bats, to change to it jumped from bats to some intermediate animal 20-70 years ago.
China accusing US that Us made the virus.
China launching directives to be extra careful in coronavirus research.
The cases probably starting in November, not in December as we thought, and China immediately arresting the doctor who detected it first.
The research in finding a vaccine being lead by a military expert in bioweapons.

I still think that it is very likely that it came from wet markets, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it was leaked somehow, and then China was doing cover-up which made the situation even worse. So for me, in the last few days the conspiracy theory has jumped from close to 0%, to it might be possible though it is still quite unlikely.
 
My 75 year old Parkinson suffering mom who's a lifelong smoker still travels to work on public transport. She says, ah feck it, if we're all getting infected might as well get it over with and roll the dice. I've lived a full life anyway. Make sure to say something nice at my funeral.

Times likes these I remember why I turned out the sarcastic twit I am.

Told her I better be in her will.
 
Dante said:
80% is still short of 100%. And assumes being able to maintain full efficiency.

Anyway, I think food supplies are probably going to be okay as they'll be treated as a priority. I'm just talking about why that would need to be so.
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It also hides the notion of balance, I know we export a lot of fish to Europe, how much of that offsets our imports of fruit and vegetables?
 
TwoSheds said:
The outbreak in humans was caused by the live animal market. A very close genetic variant of the virus of course existed before that outbreak, yes.
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Your first claim is unsubstantiated. The live market was a hub in Wuhan, we actually don't know where it started, and we don't know patient zero. What we do know is that the very busy market of Wuhan(a massive city) was the first hotspot and that's it.
 
RedTiger said:
I read a journal this week that had a study saying that the virus is not engineered, apparently there are markers to indicate if a virus has been altered through engineering or natural mutations.
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Sure, it is the most likely scenario. It happens all the time.

Also, peer-reviewed does not mean too much. It only means that 2-3 other researchers spent like 1-4 hours reading it and thought that it is okay.
 
Tomuś said:
I'm a teacher and I'm using e-learning platforms to create sets of task to do online each day for all my classes, including those at the age of seven, since they schools closure here in Poland (6 days ago). The platfrom I use gives me all the detailed information (i.e. how much time each student spent on each given task, how many times was it completed and what was the score. I'm also introducing real time online classes (need a day or two to implement that). Am I a proper teacher? Please say it so.

On a serious note, our government suggested we 'did our best to teach students somehow' and gave some useful online sources. Pretty sure yours will do the same.
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I think you sound like a proper teacher yes:)
 
Dante said:
80% is still short of 100%. And assumes being able to maintain full efficiency.

Anyway, I think food supplies are probably going to be okay as they'll be treated as a priority. I'm just talking about why that would need to be so.
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Some folks might actually lose some weight, tends to happen in times like this. There’s a theory that people actually get more healthy in times of economic struggle.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0
 
Revan said:
Sure, it is the most likely scenario. It happens all the time.

Also, peer-reviewed does not mean too much. It only means that 2-3 other researchers spent like 1-4 hours reading it and thought that it is okay.
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They will propose corrections and at least in my field, many papers take at least 6 months from submission to be published, even over a year. The quality of review (seems to) increases depending on the journal. Many journals will simply not accept work which doesn't meet their standard. I don't know where you get this idea that it takes a few hours and your done - publishing a paper in a well respected journal is decidedly not easy at all.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
We produce 59% of food internally in the UK, we also export enough to get that up to about 80% if we stopped exporting I think. Surely we can manage the food supply to sustain us?
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Just wondered where you got those percentages from? I’m surprised from those % that’s all.
 
I've been reading for years that Trump has 'started a trade war' with China and that relations between the two powers weren't great but are we now edging into more aggressive territory (US/Iran type stuff)? How bad is the perception of America over there?
 
0le said:
They will propose corrections and at least in my field, many papers take at least 6 months from submission to be published, even over a year. The quality of review (seems to) increases depending on the journal. Many journals will simply not accept work which doesn't meet their standard. I don't know where you get this idea that it takes a few hours and your done - publishing a paper in a well respected journal is decidedly not easy at all.
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Cause I am all the time at both sides (reviewing papers and reading papers). And I know, that the revisions are common. Btw, in this case it clearly didn't take 6 months.

Finally, the vast majority of time in the review process takes cause the editor in chief (or associate editors) are having a hard time to find the reviewers. And when they find, the reviewers have a month or so to review it (many take longer, cause you know, life and other stuff), but in the end, not many spend more than a few hours on the reviewing process.

I never said it is easy to publish a paper in a top journal (or in CS field, top conference), the vast majority of papers are clearly bad work for a top journal/conference so easy rejects, a tiny minority are good and get easily accepted, with most being very dependent on a random process.
 
Revan said:
I think that is the most likely scenario, but too many coincidences * are happening. https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

* The only biowarfare laboratory being located in Wuhan.
The original theory was that it came from bats, to change to it jumped from bats to some intermediate animal 20-70 years ago.
China accusing US that Us made the virus.
China launching directives to be extra careful in coronavirus research.
The cases probably starting in November, not in December as we thought, and China immediately arresting the doctor who detected it first.
The research in finding a vaccine being lead by a military expert in bioweapons.

I still think that it is very likely that it came from wet markets, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it was leaked somehow, and then China was doing cover-up which made the situation even worse. So for me, in the last few days the conspiracy theory has jumped from close to 0%, to it might be possible though it is still quite unlikely.
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The problem is that you would need several people to make a mistake for a pathogen to leave these labs. But I do believe that it played a role in China's reaction, they probably tried to manage the issue more discreetly because it happened in Wuhan.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Got them from wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_the_United_Kingdom

The UK produces only 59% of the food it consumes. In 2010, it exported £14 billion worth of food, feed and drink, and imported £32.5 billion. The vast majority of imports and exports are with other Western European countries.

Quick maths may have been wrong.
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One of the reasons, why I never understood Brexit.
EU membership gave you in times of unexpected crisis higher food supply security.
 
Carolina Red said:
1) I've not seen anything saying that. Actually, the only reports I've seen about that have been about people believed to have been infected again.

2) Not enough is known about the human immune response to Covid-19 to assume that will work.

Also...

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
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I read that based on everything we know about infectious diseases it’s unlikely you can get it again. I think Boris’s expert said that though so we can take it with a pinch of salt.

I agree based on what we know now this isn’t a feasible option. Relying on herd immunity as a core plan is clearly unrealistic, but if it is something that can help (people building immunity) then it will be factored into the long term planning and models at least.
 
Revan said:
I think that is the most likely scenario, but too many coincidences * are happening. https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

* The only biowarfare laboratory being located in Wuhan.
The original theory was that it came from bats, to change to it jumped from bats to some intermediate animal 20-70 years ago.
China accusing US that Us made the virus.
China launching directives to be extra careful in coronavirus research.
The cases probably starting in November, not in December as we thought, and China immediately arresting the doctor who detected it first.
The research in finding a vaccine being lead by a military expert in bioweapons.

I still think that it is very likely that it came from wet markets, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it was leaked somehow, and then China was doing cover-up which made the situation even worse. So for me, in the last few days the conspiracy theory has jumped from close to 0%, to it might be possible though it is still quite unlikely.
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It was on the foreign office website in November though, albeit the extent of it being very unclear. The incompetence / fear of looking bad in front of the national government of the local officials is a vastly more likely cause of the cover up than some bizarre biowarfare scenario where they tried to engineer a not very deadly virus that would spread all round the world in a heartbeat.
 
Revan said:
Cause I am all the time at both sides (reviewing papers and reading papers). And I know, that the revisions are common. Btw, in this case it clearly didn't take 6 months.

Finally, the vast majority of time in the review process takes cause the editor in chief (or associate editors) are having a hard time to find the reviewers. And when they find, the reviewers have a month or so to review it (many take longer, cause you know, life and other stuff), but in the end, not many spend more than a few hours on the reviewing process.

I never said it is easy to publish a paper in a top journal (or in CS field, top conference), the vast majority of papers are clearly bad work for a top journal/conference so easy rejects, a tiny minority are good and get easily accepted, with most being very dependent on a random process.
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I appreciate all of that, its just that your original post may be interpreted as peer reviewed papers aren't that great, when really I think the message should be anything in a well respected journal is usually fine. :)
 
Carl said:
Is there any information of what "lockdown" has actually meant in countries that have implemented one?
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JPRouve said:
We have only five legal reasons to leave the house: Go to work, go to groceries stores, for medical reasons, for family emergencies and to walk dogs or individual physical activities.

When we go out we need to fill an attestation with the reason for breaking the lockdown, our name, birthdate and address. There is an other form that is given by your employer attesting that you work for him.
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TwoSheds said:
It was on the foreign office website in November though, albeit the extent of it being very unclear. The incompetence / fear of looking bad in front of the national government of the local officials is a vastly more likely cause of the cover up than some bizarre biowarfare scenario where they tried to engineer a not very deadly virus that would spread all round the world in a heartbeat.
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Not to mention that the virus attacks the Ace2 receptor of which east Asian men have 4 to 5 times more of in their lungs than other races. Chinese ain't engineering a virus that targets their own people.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Said this to my dad the other day. People are hoarding when actually it's a good time to fast. Humans consume way too much food. Most of us don't even need to eat every day.
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Totally, most of the people that are dying from this virus do so because they have comorbidities caused by drinking and eating too much.
 
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