SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

AbusementPark said:
ive been looking at the dashboard for the virus spreading and one concern I have is the amount of people recovering from this, its very low for each country compared to the confirmed cases. Is it a timing issue that we have to wait a few weeks for the isolation period to elapse to update it as a recovered number?
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Look at China; it just takes time.
 
Kag said:
I’m not belittling or generalising your profession; so whether you go to work on Monday or not doesn’t concern me.

Teaching is a difficult job. In isolation, that isn’t an unreasonable remark. It can also be a brilliant job, something I’ve sat and reflected on over the past week or so.

In addition, I’m not sure why you had a problem with teachers being described as ‘key workers’? I know lots of teaching couples that have children. Their children need safe provision while they go to work to teach and support local communities.
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I'm not belittling or generalising your profession. I'm telling you what my honest experience has been with the vast majority of teachers I've met and spoken to in my life. I'm sure most are great and do an amazing job and I don't doubt it's a tough job at times.

Anyway let's get back on topic which is scary enough without us having an internet row.
 
AbusementPark said:
ive been looking at the dashboard for the virus spreading and one concern I have is the amount of people recovering from this, its very low for each country compared to the confirmed cases. Is it a timing issue that we have to wait a few weeks for the isolation period to elapse to update it as a recovered number?
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Things will escalate rapidly from now on. It's doubling every 4/5 days exponentially
 
NewGlory said:
According to CNN yes, but it wouldnt be the first time they got something wrong...

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-19-20-intl-hnk/index.html

"No new domestic cases in China: For the first time, the country where the coronavirus pandemic began has announced no new locally transmitted infections -- a pivotal moment in the battle to contain Covid-19."
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I won't trust a single thing coming out of China, all they've done is obfuscate, deny, spread disinformation and suppress health professionals.

They could be piling people into mass graves as they release these reports.
 
South Korea added another 152 cases and deaths up to 91.

Few days ago they had 70 get infected in an old peoples hospital.
 
A couple of places have attempted to put a number on what proportion of folk that contract covid-19 remain truly asymptotic throughout the illness. They're not in any way definitive, but at least they're something.

The first study attempts to derive this proportion from a bayesian analysis of publicly available data on the Diamond Princess. They arrive at a mean of 17.7%. (15.5% - 20.2%). They reckon that since the folk on the Diamond Princess trend significantly older than wider society that this percentage likely represents an underestimate (assuming older folk more likely to show symptoms). Really would be a good idea to have followed every one of these people from test to discharge to arrive at a complete understanding. Surely that must be something that's happening.

The second estimate is yet to be published but reportedly gives a mean of 30.8% but with a wide margin of error (7.7% - 53.8%). It was taken from a cohort of 565 Japanese nationals that were evacuated from Wuhan.
 
Grinner said:
What does China have to gain by hiding numbers at this point?
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A lot of the world are blaming them for the virus and how it spread. I think they have every interest in downplaying it's effects and proving that it can be contained.

Regarding Germany being suspected of cooking their post mortems to keep the death rate low: how come only they are suspected of this and not the likes of South Korea?

And would they be technically incorrect to only count people that died from Covid-19 alone as true mortalities?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
A lot of the world are blaming them for the virus and how it spread. I think they have every interest in downplaying it's effects and proving that it can be contained.

Regarding Germany being suspected of cooking their post mortems to keep the death rate low: how come only they are suspected of this and not the likes of South Korea?

And would they be technically incorrect to only count people that died from Covid-19 alone as true mortalities?
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I don't think so. At this point we're all in it together to find a vaccine and manage global deaths.
 
TMDaines said:
I’ve spent a reasonable amount of time there. A crude generalisation would be most Italian families eat far less processed and preprepared food, shopping more in local bakeries, greengrocers, delis and butchers. You don’t really panic buy the kind of stuff you use to make a freshly cooked meal every day. Panic buying in your local shops, as opposed to faceless supermarkets, wouldn’t be a good look.

I cook most nights and would it find hard to not need to go shopping every week for milk, eggs, fruit, veg and meat anyway. I reckon three weeks eating through the freezer and cupboard would be as long as we could last, which thankfully is the maximum amount of time any individual needs to isolate in a 2-person household under current UK guidance!
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I think you're right. In our small shop, there is still a queue at the deli counter, as there always is - I won't buy from there now because the food is uncovered. The fruit and veg is all Italian produce, and the delivery lorries turn up every day (we've been eating strawberries from Basilicata for weeks now). No shortages of anything.

There are no chilled or frozen ready meals to panic-buy because they don't ever have that type of thing, except in the really big shops and even then, the range is very small. Tinned food - only fish and veg really, and those are the things that have been moving the quickest off the shelves.

Italians eat pasta every day, so there are massive amounts for sale in every shop all the time, plus it's all made in Italy. I can say with confidence that it will never run out! Loo paper panic-buying doesn't happen because people use bidets.

And yes, the shop staff know you (by name, usually). So there's a sense of community spirit that you don't really get in a huge superstore in the UK.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
On the 10 o clock news on BBC, they said Italy is probably understating Covid 19 deaths in the elderly as if they die, they're not being tested so NOT being classed as a Covid 19 death?

Are there any Italians on here? I'm fascinated as to why they DON'T panic buy stuff. I get common sense says take what you really need and everyone should be ok so why are people in the UK panicking?

Mentality?
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It's the opposite, unless things have changed recently. People are being classified as Covid fatalities if they died for any reason whilst having the virus. The health authority is planning to verify deaths via autopsy later on. Perhaps they realise it's making them look worse though, id be interested if you have a reference to somebody in Italy saying that?

I'm not sure why people dont panic buy here. I think partly the Italian culture takes much more of a 'it will be alright' view. Italians are a nightmare to get to plan, prepare or do anything in the workplace at the best of times. Everything can be done tomorrow. The other element i think that has already been mentioned is that people eat fresh food as a matter of routine. Buying frozen food and ready meals is not something anybody would think to do.
 
Just seen on Twitter the queues at Asda and Tesco. Think it’s time Military was called to these places.
 
11101 said:
It's the opposite, unless things have changed recently. People are being classified as Covid fatalities if they died for any reason whilst having the virus. The health authority is planning to verify deaths via autopsy later on. Perhaps they realise it's making them look worse though, id be interested if you have a reference to somebody in Italy saying that?

I'm not sure why people dont panic buy here. I think partly the Italian culture takes much more of a 'it will be alright' view. Italians are a nightmare to get to plan, prepare or do anything in the workplace at the best of times. Everything can be done tomorrow. The other element i think that has already been mentioned is that people eat fresh food as a matter of routine. Buying frozen food and ready meals is not something anybody would think to do.
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It was the BBC correspondent in Rome referencing what he'd been told.

This Reuters report mentions same thing ....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2152V0
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
It was the BBC correspondent in Rome referencing what he'd been told.

This Reuters report mentions same thing ....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2152V0
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Ah ok so it's deaths taking place in nursing homes they are not testing. Some are likely to be virus related but a lot won't be.

It does not surprise me if they are doing this though, and i bet other countries are or will be doing it too. All along the government has been getting annoyed that Italy is testing so many more people than anybody else in Europe and it's making the picture look worse.
 
Bojan11 said:
Just seen on Twitter the queues at Asda and Tesco. Think it’s time Military was called to these places.
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Went into Tesco this morning. Opens at 6 & got there at 6:20. Shelfs were all empty. To get around their “3 items per person” limit, entire families were turning up & buying 3 each themselves...Absolutely ridiculous how people are acting.
 
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