It's worth noting just how many children will be born in December btw. We can name them the 'Covid Colony'.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
All the kids missing out on half a year or more of schooling. They might be known as generation covid.
Without drastic measures, it is. Imperial College study forecasted the number of deaths to 90m if the virus is left alone.
The economy is going to be totally mauled.
The Wuhan Wains
Hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people in U.K have Asthma... I think the role of Asthma in this (and the number of people who have it) has gone under the radar really.
This virus immediately targets the lungs.
Many PL footballers have Asthma!
Mass testing in comparison to many other countries where very few test kits are available. My son is in California and 5 people he knows were exposed to someone with Covid and then went back to Uni, felt unwell and they could only find 1 test kit (so they tested the most sick one) and that was in Santa Barbara where there were zero cases at the time.
And idiots are everywhere but I read a report that social distancing is working much better in Germany that many other places, not as well as Hong Kong but still better than most. You have closed lots of things including schools as well.
Are you quarantining due to precaution or have you had symptoms? Are there any local facebook support groups or anything like that?
There was a clear enemy during the blitz - the nazi's, where as covid 19 is a virus, peoples anger can't be directed at a invisible virus, the anger is most likely to be directed at the responds to it. It's also a virus that doesn't effect everyone in the same way, at it's worse(I think this is right) it could cause under a million deaths in Britain which would be huge but thats nothing compare to what would have happened if Nazi Germany invaded and took over Britain and Britain had a war time economy, people had jobs building war equipment or going off to fight an actual war, the longer this crisis goes on the worse off the economy is, there could mass levels of unemployment. We've also made massive gains since the 1940's both in individual rights and advices in tech.Plus there was a ton of awful shit during the blitz and the changes after the WW2 where pretty huge.
Now having said all of that, you could be easily right. If there is one country in Europe where people will accept such huge government over slight it would be Britain. Who's cultural authoritarian norms run quite deep but also I think this is only partly true for the older generations(Over 40's).
I think it will probably be the the event with the biggest impact since WW2
Think the change in thread title was precisely because of posts like this.
Unless it killed you of course. The virus not the beer.
I am hardly saying any bullshit. It is the most detailed study we have had so far, which forecasts 2.1m Americans dying if we only mitigate the problem, and 4m if we do nothing and leave it as the flu. Interpolate the numbers for the world, and you get what I am saying.
It also is conservative in many cases, using a significantly lower fatality rate than the one given from WHO. It is also precisely the study that the UK government is using to make their policy (thus while they gave up on herd immunity).
The silliness was more from 'this is just the flu' brigade who thankfully seem to have disappeared in the last week.
I think they modeled that doing little (mild suppression measures) would result in 2.2 million deaths rising to nearly 4 million if we really did feck all (treat it like the flu). Some bloke then extrapolated this to the worlds population and came up with 90 million deaths. The maths is correct but it wasn't meant to be a prediction of what will happen, just of what could happen if we did nothing. And we are doing things. They also said with the correct measures the death toll could be reduced to thousands.
Still very fecking scary mind.
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I know the plan one Health Trust in NI is putting into place to deal with what they're projecting to happen. Let's just say it's grim.
Over what timescale?
Within a year.
Full study: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Isn't this a really good thing?
Serious cases that end up in hospital are being tested, but if there's a substantial number of people who have got it/have it who simply have slipped under the radar (an absolute certainty in the UK at least) then does it not suggest that the virus is significantly less deadly than feared?
I said that left alone will reach those numbers. Yes, their numbers for UK and US very much matched, so you can extrapolate for the entire world (with some degree).
Obviously we are doing something, but it is still scary. For example, mitigation only reduced the number of deaths at a quarter (so 1m in US, 260k in UK), and suppression with then total removal of restriction was the same as doing nothing.
The current strategy most states are doing lowers it to a few thousands for US/UK (I think that is extremely optimistic as we see from Italy, so it is gonna be few tens of thousands), but that requires a lot of restrictions to stay in place until the vaccine comes.
Wasn't that also them just extrapolating the mortality rates to apply to the global population? Large portions of the world won't have access to anything like the resources and treatment available to the richest parts of the world.
Or am I missing something?
Wow
I read a summary of the Imperial report on Twitter. I recall there being 3 scenarios - doing nothing, mitigation, and outright surpression.
I'm not sure which category the United Kingdom comes under - (mitigation I guess?) - because we only have government advice and no complete ban on leaving the home. People are still going to bars/cafes/restaurants.
They were supposed to do mitigation (herd immunity) but when the study was completed the number of deaths was too high to accept it, so switched to suppression. Supression does not necessarily mean full lockdown.
Ahh, that makes more sense. Thanks.
90 million is extrapolating the very worst cases in the US to the rest of the world. That worst case won't happen because steps are already well above the level of treating it like the flu.
Still scary but it almost certainly won't be that bad - will almost certainly involve significant deaths of course.
I dunno, I’ve kept an eye on this thread and to be honest I think you’re taking too much in and unleashing it. Like I get it’s bad but anytime I see a comment that I think “steady on” it inevitably comes from you. I get you’re trying to be informative but I can’t imagine constantly looking up and reading statistics about how many dead people there is and there’s gonna be is healthy. I mean just today you’ve killed off football as an entire sport and then killed off 90 million people. Just chill....
Interesting.
A couple of things from my point of view:
1. They've stated R0 to be 2.4. It's not actually known what the COVID R0 number is and this can fall with measures that are put in place. It has been estimated it may be as low as 1.5, but it's obviously a fairly significant variable.
2. The numbers you've quoted correlate to doing nothing, as I've quoted above, the measures we've put in place now may have the biggest impact. I'm not refuting the fact that millions could die if we did nothing, but the fact is that we are doing something, therefore statements such as '2.2m could die' are unhelpful in the long run as it doesn't correlate with the current scenario.
Good thread from a Virologist about the future Covid vaccine
That is certainly a way of looking at it, yes. Which is why I've always taken the death rate with a pinch of salt. Personally, as a person who as asthma and often gets pretty wheezy with seasonal flu-like infections I'm a bit uneasy.
Have I had it and been ok? Maybe. Have I not had it? Maybe. I'll be on higher alert/vigilant until I get my vaccine. I just feel if I let my guard down it could get me in some bother. Statistics are on my side, however, being 30, but...you know...
They have denied that explicitly.
My sister works in a hospital near Cologne. So far they are coping well, they still have enough capacity to deal with the Corona patients.
Which country?
I mean... yeah. They’re not gonna say “ahhhh ya got me!” if somebody asks.
Pit stop.
Putting this here if anyone is nearly burnt out from this macabre thread. I sometimes just watch this for 10-15 minutes, cheers me right up, heading over Spain/northern Africa currently going into daylight.
Putting this here if anyone is nearly burnt out from this macabre thread. I sometimes just watch this for 10-15 minutes, cheers me right up, heading over Spain/northern Africa currently going into daylight.
The normal numbers show that we test a lot.
Germany tested 100,000 people last week, 35,000 the week before. They might not have tested everybody that wanted a test... and especially in the first weeks when test kits were more difficult to get.
Small kids with usual cold signs and normal fever for sure are not the first to get tested...
There is enough understandable reasons why we are not on Italy's ot Spain's track.
Yeah... but this is not China. There would be leaks and a huge public outrage. And, it would be difficult to orchestrate because it‘s not controlled by a central structure. Every county reports the numbers independently.
In the death cases that I know more of (regional newspapers) that was just not the case. And despite some users who like conspiracy theories that does just not match to the usual German overly correct prussian character.
In Germany the first cases from January were pretty well tracked. The second wave came with travellers, from skiing hotspots in Austria etc. Mainly with young people!
That was after the first 648 cases about ten days ago. If you take some days between discovery and death...
All of e.g. Bavarias 15 or 18 death cases were between 67 and 99.
I actually expect Germany to cope better with the virus then most of the other countries because of the organisation, social structure, discpline and health system.
And yes, there is always some people that do not catch the seriousness of the situation.
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In a lighter side, we should probably arrange more forum games on redcafe since there would be many people on lockdowns.
Wolves? Any other forum games that's interesting? Perhaps a gaming session?
Wolves? Any other forum games that's interesting? Perhaps a gaming session?
If anything, that chart indicates you test a lot more than Italy so your ratios should be more accurate.In the death cases that I know more of (regional newspapers) that was just not the case. And despite some users who like conspiracy theories that does just not match to the usual German overly correct prussian character.
In Germany the first cases from January were pretty well tracked. The second wave came with travellers, from skiing hotspots in Austria etc. Mainly with young people!
That was after the first 648 cases about ten days ago. If you take some days between discovery and death...
All of e.g. Bavarias 15 or 18 death cases were between 67 and 99.
I actually expect Germany to cope better with the virus then most of the other countries because of the organisation, social structure, discpline and health system.
And yes, there is always some people that do not catch the seriousness of the situation.
Have a similar issue here with people constantly lambasting the government for having almost the same number of cases as Argentina despite their population being 13 times ours. They overlook Argentina has 2 deaths already while we have none and our ICUs are empty.
Werewolf is far too apt. Villagers are blind as bats, have no clue what's going on and who is evil (infected) as they keep themselves hidden (asymptomatic).
Everyone banging on about collaborating and fighting for the greater good despite (again) not having the faintest idea how to go about it.
There's a chap running around with a limited stock of test kits trying to hit the jackpot with his one daily seer check.
Worst of all, most players end up dead.
So a covid themed game then?
