SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

SnowRoll said:
If we (the world) had another month or two to prepare for the pandemic, surely many lives would have been saved.
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The whole world knew about this from early January right? So what preparations and key planning was the West doing at this time? I don't think it really makes sense to say that an extra couple of weeks would have made a difference, because they willingly ignored and didn't make use of the time they had anyway.

Of course the governments would like to deflect all criticism in that way but I don't think the people should let them. Everyone knows the Chinese government did wrong and no one is surprised. Don't let the likes of Trump use that to deflect from their own tragic mistakes and shortcomings.
 
berbatrick said:
I read this paper and a few other ones involving the same drug. Seems at least promising. People are talking about the small sample size but within that lmitation, the result was dramatic.

Some version of this paper and an earlier Chinese paper examining the mechanism of action of quinone had made it onto an Indian whatsapp forward. As a result, stocks of quinone have disappeared from chemsts because of people trying to use it as a preventive medicine, even though both studies use it as a cure not prevention. I hope the govt steps in very soon.
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Wolverine said:
The French study is here
https://www.mediterranee-infection....2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf

Have to be very cautious with it as small sample size. All patients had mild-moderate symptoms. The ones who went to ITU died or were lost to follow up.
And nasopharyngeal swabs to test for coronavirus seems not a clinically significant endpoint to study
In reality what should be done is to see the drugs with control, single and combination given to study for effects in reducing mortality, reducing progression to intubation, reducing rates of ARDS + myocarditis and reducing stay in ITU with successful extubation etc.

Hopeful that with the numerous trials being conducted that we start seeing some strong data emerge on a pharmacological agent (or agents) to use
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Also here is a good critical analysis.


My personal problem is hcq prolongs qt interval, as does azithro. Not a good idea if you are on certain cardiac meds which also prolong qt interval.
 
redshaw said:
M3Z3b07.jpg
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What's the link to this site?
 
justboy68 said:
Traced back. Of course they didn't know about it then. These things take time to get discovered. It was first noticed in mid to late December. The local government response cost about a week to 10 days of notice.
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You could be right. I stand corrected.
 


The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300.
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The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher...
...Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
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One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health.
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I honestly don't know what to think...
 
Just elderly population does not tell much. If I go on a cruise I am usually a still very active and financially well off person.
 
SnowRoll said:


I honestly don't know what to think...
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I do. He is worrying about the certainty of the data which is never going to be there in the early stages of a pandemic. It is the medical equivalent of doing nothing about global warming until the data is certain and then going "woops, too late to do anything now".

All you have to look at is how easily medical services are overwhelmed in places like Italy to know that a virtual lock down is the only sensible thing to do and even that might not be enough.
 
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justboy68 said:
Traced back. Of course they didn't know about it then. These things take time to get discovered. It was first noticed in mid to late December. The local government response cost about a week to 10 days of notice.
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I want to know what he's smoking. :lol:

Assuming a population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% at this stage is just bizarre. Concentrating and solely basing your conclusions on what happened on a boat when you've data from tons of countries is very strange. There was no mention of Italy in the article whatsoever, or South Korea who had been testing religiously and have collected an incredible amount of data.
 
SteveJ said:
Sorry for my complete ignorance:

At the writing class I went to last week, a lady sat next to me & halfway through the class, she mentioned that she'd just returned from India after four weeks. Should I be worried about my health? Or hers even?
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India has fewer cases compared to Europe/UK. You should be less worried about the lady than you're worried of interaction with those from your own country.
 
Uzbekistan have 42 confirmed cases. 0 deaths. All schools/collesges/universities have been closed since Monday last week. All non-critical workers sent home. Public transportation has stopped. No flights, the borders are closed except for foreign citizens who want to leave the country. No public gatherings are allowed, wearing masks while being outside is obligatory.
 
Has there be any news/update regarding if this thing is mutating still? Wasn't that the big challenge in terms of a medicine and eventual vaccine?
 
Giggs86 said:
Why would it? I have a 57% proof bourbon. There are many cask strength whiskies that bottled at 60+%. Rectified spirit is around 95%, possible but not recommended to drink undiluted.
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Not sure it kills the virus I suppose. There are strong alcoholic drinks like absinthe that are 45%-70% I don’t know if they would work if you drank them but.
It would be worth a try I guess if you were in a really bad situation but wouldn’t advise it myself.
 
SnowRoll said:
Another optimistic view, from a news outlet that's very critical of Trump:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...s-right-about-covid-19-who-is-wrong-1.8691031
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I actually think the most optimistic figures are coming from Germany right now (depending on how effective their testing is / how they are classifying deaths), but in all cases there is a danger in deriving a general IFR from the current CFR. It takes between an average of 2-3 weeks to die so there is a great lag between the current case number and the final outcomes of those cases. This danger can be seen if we look at Yamin's analysis and how events have unfolded since he expressed it.

He assumes a CFR of 0.9% of known cases from South Korea, expects at least double that to have actually been infected and so derives an actual IFR of at worst 0.45% in the region. There is an obvious undercalculation in his first assumption though. In the few days since he's voiced opinion we've already seen the CFR of known cases rise to 1.17% in South Korea. Not only that, but if we could somehow pause the rest of time and only let the known cases we have play out South Korea would still have 5,844 active cases. In order for the CFR not to rise even further we would have to assume that not a single one of those 5,844 cases will die. It would only take a further 74 deaths to take the CFR to 2% and his derived max IFR to 1%.

He's certainly right that Israel will be less affected than other nations, they have an average age of 28 and a healthy population, in Korea it is 42. Unfortunately for us we are much nearer to the Korean median age (UK 40.5, US 38, EU 42). He also fails to take into account the underlying health of the US/EU populations as it relates to those of South Korea.
 
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Prometheus said:
I want to know what he's smoking. :lol:

Assuming a population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% at this stage is just bizarre. Concentrating and solely basing your conclusions on what happened on a boat when you've data from tons of countries is very strange. There was no mention of Italy in the article whatsoever, or South Korea who had been testing religiously and have collected an incredible amount of data.
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He's also assuming an infection rate of 1% of the general population, and then basically says that wouldn't be a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

What evidence do we have that the virus would stop there?
 
Deery said:
Not sure it kills the virus I suppose. There are strong alcoholic drinks like absinthe that are 45%-70% I don’t know if they would work if you drank them but.
It would be worth a try I guess if you were in a really bad situation but wouldn’t advise it myself.
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What the feck has gone on over the last few pages? People seem unclear about this.

Do NOT drink a lot of alcohol to become immune from Corona.
 
Wumminator said:
What the feck has gone on over the last few pages? People seem unclear about this.

Do NOT drink a lot of alcohol to become immune from Corona.
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I just assumed it was a joke?

If I recall people actually died of alcohol poisoning in Iran because of this rumour.
 
Wumminator said:
What the feck has gone on over the last few pages? People seem unclear about this.

Do NOT drink a lot of alcohol to become immune from Corona.
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But DO DRINK a lot of alcohol to forget about Coronavirus.
But drink high class alcohol (if you can afford it) otherwise the hangover might lead to that you think you have Covid-19.
 
Wumminator said:
What the feck has gone on over the last few pages? People seem unclear about this.

Do NOT drink a lot of alcohol to become immune from Corona.
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Yeah, am talking about a shot of absinthe as a disinfectant mouthwash not drinking the whole bottle, even then it probably wouldn’t work.
30 average drinks can kill you so don’t stay topped up on alcohol.
 
Withnail said:
He's also assuming an infection rate of 1% of the general population, and then basically says that wouldn't be a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

What evidence do we have that the virus would stop there?
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Ioannidis understands the defects of models used in Medicine at 1st order, but doesn't understand 2nd order effects/asymmetries. Being an academic, he doesn't understand decision-making under uncertainty & which decision is harmed LESS from model error.
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Tucholsky said:
But DO DRINK a lot of alcohol to forget about Coronavirus.
But drink high class alcohol (if you can afford it) otherwise the hangover might lead to that you think you have Covid-19.
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My wine club emailed me yesterday to point out what an excellent opportunity this had given us to enjoy more wine in a leisurely manner in the comfort of our own homes. And that they had plenty of stock and were still doing deliveries...
 
ThatsGreat said:
India has fewer cases compared to Europe/UK. You should be less worried about the lady than you're worried of interaction with those from your own country.
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India's testing protocol is non existent .... not anyones fault, is what it is, but I wouldn't take their published numbers very seriously. see VDO from a few page before
 
Dante said:
Wine is 12-14% ABV. Hand sanitisers need to be 60-70% to be effective.

The alcohol concentration required to kill the virus would also kill the human.
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I’ll have a pint of sanitiser then please my good man :)
 
Jack-C20 said:
Can someone give me a quick run down on the lock down in Italy? Last I read was that most people were still going to work if not able to work from home, and social gatherings and whatnot banned.
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@Jack-C20
Every shop or public amenity or is closed except grocery shops, pharmacies, tobacconists and newsagents.
You may only go outside for food, medical reasons, work or other situations of necessity. You have to have a form with you when you leave the house and your ID, in case you are stopped by police.
You are supposed to stay within your own Comune except for unavoidable reasons.
Outside spaces such as parks and playgrounds are closed.
You are not allowed to be outside in a group (more than two people). One person only to go into shops.
As of last night, only essential businesses/industries may continue operation, other factories have to shut down till April 3. Construction sites too, unless they're working on roads or health facilities.

I've just been looking at the newspapers and it sounds like you'll have to have your temperature checked if you go to a shop or a pharmacy, or if you're stopped outside by the police.
 
Nevermind career ending, he should be going to prison. That decision will cost thousands of lives.
 
Adisa said:
Nevermind career ending, he should be going to prison. That decision will cost thousands of lives.
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“those present” and including quotes, why do people share such trash? I mean, I get why scumbag Morgan does it but...

Kin ell man, the UK government won’t be going to prison ffs, as has been made clear every step of the way, they are following scientific advice.
 
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.
 
Grinner said:
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.
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Seems like over-reacting, however, general population is very keen on breaking the rules. You can bet your life that some, instead of going out for a run, will get together for a smoke or just a friendly chat without keeping the recommended 1-2 meters distance.
 
Grinner said:
I don't understand the logic of stopping people from going out for a run. Italy and France have stopped people from doing this.
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It's annoying but i think a case of a few people ruining it for everyone. It's not a ban on running, but on any outdoor physical activity. So many were going for a walk 'for exercise' but really just wandering about to get out of the house.

I also see a lot of people walking up and down all day with the same shopping bag pretending to go to the supermarket.
 
Rooney1987 said:
At this point Italy had only tested 42,062 at that stage. UK tested 72,818 plus.

On March 11th, Italy had tested 73,154 with 12,462 confirmed cases and 827 deaths.
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Could I ask where you got this data from? I'm trying to compile a list on how many tests different countries are doing and this would be very helpful. For any other countries you might have it for as well.

Thanks!

ryansgirl said:
I've lived in Japan for what would be called a long time now and I can tell you that recently many Japanese have decided to believe the govt here that wants the Olympics at all costs - even potentially the lives of citizens and residents. Japanese people are now getting into the mode of there's nothing to see, Japan is the outlier, look at how bad everywhere else is, etc. Over a 1,000 cases and 35 deaths - looks much better than elsewhere doesn't it?

I'll tell you why the stats are so low for a country with 125 million people - around 121 people per 1 million are being tested. If that. That's right, no testing no problem! Doctors who have been exposed to patients with COVID-19 have been refused tests to give you some idea of this disgraceful 'strategy.' Most people who have symptoms similar to the virus have been denied tests and told to stay at home. As somebody who lives here I can tell you I don't feel very safe with this official policy.
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And same for this as well please, any chance you could send me the source? Would be very much appreciated.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Pure stupidity and panic. A political decision rather than a scientific one.

I guess the only argument there from their side is “people can’t be trusted”.
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Whether its right or wrong to enact those measures, I think what people are increasingly showing is that they can't be trusted. The actions have been incredibly stupid.
 
11101 said:
It's annoying but i think a case of a few people ruining it for everyone. It's not a ban on running, but on any outdoor physical activity. So many were going for a walk 'for exercise' but really just wandering about to get out of the house.

I also see a lot of people walking up and down all day with the same shopping bag pretending to go to the supermarket.
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People have to be able to get out for fresh air. So many Italians live in apartments. They must be going crazy.
 
Grinner said:
People have to be able to get out for fresh air. So many Italians live in apartments. They must be going crazy.
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Yup, that’s what many don’t get about FULL lockdown, it doesn’t need to go anything close to that far to be “successful”. If you find people congregating in large group, fine them big fines.

But that said, 200 spread out on the hill at Bondi isn’t where people are going to pick up or spread Covid-19. That fact isn’t stopping a massive panic there about it though, or mass shaming online.

Closing public transport, bars and shops is enough.
 
kouroux said:
Stay safe. All bets are off in situations like these indeed


Health care workers should have special hours dedicated for their shopping for me, the work they do is unvaluable, they shouldn't have to worry about finding groceries
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The Tesco where I work (Barrow-in-Furness) is opening an hour early today at 10am purely for health workers and our own staff.
I would hope that is the same across the country.
 
SnowRoll said:
Thank you for a detailed reply, I appreciate you taking the time to explain yourself. It definitely makes a better discussion, than dismissing the various links I've provided as biased.

Just to make it clear, in my opinion, the Chinese scientific community did all it could in dealing with the virus (and still is). Just like doctors in the rest of the world, some of them make mistakes.
The issue is not with these types of actions. It is with the authorities silencing those professionals who raised the alarm as early as mid-November.
I haven't seen any western government threaten doctors not to publish their opinions. So, in that sense, the Chinese bare a lot of responsibility, beyond any mistake made by any professional or official.
I could be wrong, but to me, of all mistakes done since day one, the one silencing Chinese doctors has the biggest effect on the entire world. If we (the world) had another month or two to prepare for the pandemic, surely many lives would have been saved.

Since Wikipedia is a reliable source for you, please just take a quick look at these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_Wen_(doctor)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xie_Linka

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang#Whistleblower_in_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Censorship,_propaganda,_and_police_responses
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For the first statement, perhaps they're not threatened with a complete media blackout (then again, neither was the Chinese doctor). But as I've tried to say previously, multiple doctors have been fired and then struck off in the UK after whistleblowing about unsafe patient practices or staffing etc in the NHS. Doctors with previous exemplary records end up suddenly with a whole host of complaints out of nowhere. Suddenly nobody wants to hire them in the country. These stories are barely shared in the media.

I think there's also a habit of some people to caricature what China and the Communist party actually is. Are they a repressive one state country? Yes of course. Does everything come from the central party? Of course not, anyone who thinks a country of 1.5 billion can be controlled in that way is not living in reality. The provinces actually have quite a bit of leeway and even within them, there are governmental structures filtering all the way down to local level. Some people seem to think that this doctor raised the alarm and Xi himself shut him up.

One of the problems with dictatorships is that you don't want to go to your superior with bad news. Hence the Wuhan local government initially attempting to shut him up and then rightly getting reprimanded for their actions afterwards.

Is it how I'd want to live my life? Not personally. But it isn't quite the caricature many seem to think.

As for the second statement, the world had a long time to prepare and did almost nothing. We all heard about it by early January at the latest. We had our first cases by late Jan at the latest. Yet did nothing. An extra month would have just mean we'd have spent an extra month watching Asia suffer thinking it could never affect us here.

I think there is also an element of outcome bias. We know its now a pandemic and therefore we analyse all previous actions within that particular lens. Historical events are often seen in this way. So silly of Pompey to do X, Mark Anthony to do Y, Napoleon to do Z. Of course that would be the outcome. But at the time, that isn't obvious.

In most countries, if a few doctors thought they noticed a cluster of cases of a disease, they'd probably be told to get on and get some more evidence. Or I guess they'd probably involve the local public health team to investigate. What they probably wouldn't do immediately is declare a national emergency and close all borders.

I think that must be borne in mind. Even while we (rightly) criticise China's HR record, government and initial inadequate response.
 
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