SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Prometheus said:
Small data/recent surge. There simply hasn't been enough time for people to progress from contracting to dying. In South Korea the CFR was a fraction of what it's now until recently.
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We are approximately 14 days behind Italy, but we're not seeing anything close to their numbers. At the same stage their death rate was almost 10 times higher, if I'm not mistaken.

I know that our death rate will go up over the next weeks, but by how much is hard to say. As of this moment, the death rate is 0.5% at the absolute worst. Probably closer to 0.2%. Two weeks from now it may rise to South Korean levels, though I doubt it.
 
OleBoiii said:
The cases exist, but they are still rare. Especially the ones leading to death(practically non-existent).

In Norway, roughly 10% of confirmed cases end up in the hospital. The actual number of infected getting hospitalized is therefore probably somewhere between 2-5%. Let's say 4% to not be overly positive. Among the hospitalized, roughly 5% have died. All of them have been old or had an underlying condition. The number is expected to rise, but not dramatically as long as there are enough ventilators.

TLDR: the death rate is probably around 0.2% - 0.3%. If you're young and healthy it's significantly lower. The biggest worry is the number of ventilators and available medical staff.
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Probably true, but I think it's good that these untimely deaths are being publicised just so young people realise that the 'rona is no joke.

Here in Jakarta, news of the death of an otherwise fit, presumably healthy and successful 32-year-old man has sent panic on WhatsApp groups and the like, at least in my circles. I see this growing anxiety amongst people around my age to be a step in the right direction, especially in places like here (Indonesia) where an official lockdown, be it full or partial, to my astonishment hasn't been put into force.
 
Honest John said:
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:wenger:
 
Kopral Jono said:
Probably true, but I think it's good that these untimely deaths are being publicised just so young people realise that the 'rona is no joke.

Here in Jakarta, news of the death of an otherwise fit, presumably healthy and successful 32-year-old man has sent panic on WhatsApp groups and the like, at least in my circles. I see this growing anxiety amongst people around my age to be a step in the right direction, especially in places like here (Indonesia) where an official lockdown, be it full or partial, to my astonishment hasn't been put into force.
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Panic is rarely a good response, but it annoys me when people don't take the situation seriously. Especially if their reasoning is "it's just old people, so who cares?". Those people probably deserve to have some anxiety.
 
The whole grocery situation is a complete mess, so there are no delivery slots available for new customers, the supermarkets dont space out the replenishment of their stock throughout the day which makes it pointless turning up the stores in the evening as the shelves are pretty bare, it creates a stupid situation where everyone is forced to turn up at the store all the same time early in day to get their shopping.
 
Arruda said:
UK?

What about every other country in the world? Tell me one were strict measures weren't imposed relatively early and things are under control? Portugal started doing it when we had about about 10 cases, people have been mostly home for the past two weeks and still our hospitals are being overwhelmed. Granted our spare capacity is probably smaller than a wealthier country like Sweden, but still.

There are two types of countries in the world. The ones that acted quickly (all in Asia) and the ones that didn't.

A bunch of leaders and health authorities experimenting "and modelling" with death at their door. If the world returns to normal they should all stand to be trialed.
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it's not yet resolved in Asia. there are now second waves of the virus in Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea. this isn't going to be some 'one time fix', whereby locking down once solves all our problems. it won't. i dont think people appreciate that there will be a series of lockdowns for the next 12-18 months, so the timing of these lockdowns becomes the most important thing. you lockdown to ensure your healthcare isn't overwhelmed - that's priority #1. you don't just lockdown for the sake of it or because eventually one day your healthcare services will be overburderned (whenever that may be), because this problem isn't going completely away for some time yet.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
High schools and Uni’s - nope, closed

Bars on table service only. And spaced apart seating.



Norway have gone full strict and look at their death rate. The death rate is simply a reflection of the patients and Sweden’s in patients are currently stable for a week after it had looked like spiraling out of control.

The likelihood of Sweden suddenly spiking after a week of stable is extremely low, not until because the stats and curve don’t back it up but because our society is nothing like Italy or Spain. So far we know that the majority of spread has been within the home right @Withnail ? And you know our big cities, the breeding grounds if you like, are famous for people leaving parental homes extremely early and barely ever flat sharing?
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I remain sceptical but I really hope you're right and they aren't just walking blindly into a shitstorm.
 
Sarni said:
They've tested a lot more than other countries per million population but still haven't tested THAT much. Basically until we know how likely it is to go completely symptomless and identify all who have antibodies despite having had not symptoms previously, we will not know the real mortality rate, it's all guess work.
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I agree. It's all estimates now. (I personally reckon it would stabilise at 2-3% in a spherical country in a vacuum :p).
 
I went to Tesco at 7am and went right in...although I'd forgot my Mum's token so needed to get change for the trolley...fecking ballache. They had a bloke on the door stopping couples and only letting one person shop. Inside it was not busy and they were keeping people apart at the tills. I was in there bloody ages and when I came out the queue to get in was around the car park, but people were three feet apart.

I couldn't get flour but everything else I needed was available. Parmesan, balsamic, horseradish, mozzarella, mint clubs and Spitfire ale were my main gets.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I’m not sure about what you mean about deaths being too random because nobody knows how the virus kills peopleAll that matters is the opinion of the doctor that signed the death cert. Do they believe that the patient died as a result of COVID-19 infection? This might not always be something they know with absolute certainty but they’ll always be be pretty damn confident of their opinion. They have to be. The death cert is a legally binding document.

I mean we don't yet know what factors make people more or less susceptible to it. Why are some 20 year olds ending up in intensive care and others don't even know they have it? Do blood types really make a difference? How much does age and smoking history influence it? And so on...we don't know the answers to any of these questions yet. Even if you did, you then you have to consider if your population has more or less of these factors than other countries, and how it might develop over time as it reaches more of the population.

Cases, on the other hand, are widely acknowledged as being a wildly inaccurate way to assess disease burden, for obvious reasons. Countries like the UK and US have been doing many multiples fewer tests per capita than countries like South Korea, so will - completely inaccurately - report their number of cases as being many multiples lower, despite this not being the reality.

Absolute number of cases doesn't matter, but the trend of your cases does. It's just how big your sample size is. If you are only capturing the most symptomatic of all cases, that's fine as long as you keep the testing criteria the same and you are capturing the most symptomatic cases today, tomorrow and next week. Then you can see if you are getting it under control or not. Since the first week Italy has been testing only symptomatic patients. They don't care if they are 1% or 99% of the total. They just need to model how many hospital beds they will need and whether the lockdowns are working.

Anyway, this is a bit of a pedantic discussion but deaths are definitely being used as a useful way to track the pandemic, in the knowledge that just looking at positive cases can be very misleading.

Here’s some data being followed closely in Ireland. Collated by one of our main universities and shared on behalf of the professional body which represents all Irish General Practitioners (ICGP). With cases such a poor metric, the #deaths/million is arguably the most important in knowing how severely a country has been affected.
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Perhaps we are discussing separate things here. I am talking about what is most useful in tracking the progress of the virus, you seem to be talking about assessing the impact on the country.
 
Grinner said:
I went to Tesco at 7am and went right in...although I'd forgot my Mum's token so needed to get change for the trolley...fecking ballache. They had a bloke on the door stopping couples and only letting one person shop. Inside it was not busy and they were keeping people apart at the tills. I was in there bloody ages and when I came out the queue to get in was around the car park, but people were three feet apart.

I couldn't get flour but everything else I needed was available. Parmesan, balsamic, horseradish, mozzarella, mint clubs and Spitfire ale were my main gets.
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Solid choice.
 
Grinner said:
I went to Tesco at 7am and went right in...although I'd forgot my Mum's token so needed to get change for the trolley...fecking ballache. They had a bloke on the door stopping couples and only letting one person shop. Inside it was not busy and they were keeping people apart at the tills. I was in there bloody ages and when I came out the queue to get in was around the car park, but people were three feet apart.

I couldn't get flour but everything else I needed was available. Parmesan, balsamic, horseradish, mozzarella, mint clubs and Spitfire ale were my main gets.
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I went to our Tesco's about 9.30 a.m. There was a guy there who would not let you in until you used their wipes and disinfectant spray on your trolley. I was wearing gloves as well. It was pretty quiet and same here, they have markers at the tills to keep people the correct distance apart. I got most things, of course there was absolutely no paracetamol, which I would have liked to buy, they were limiting some things like frozen chips to three per person and you could only get one lot of milk. I am not planning to go to any big supermarket for a couple of weeks now, it will be my local Co-op for anything I do run out of.
 


The use of the war on terror rhetoric(''We can't let this virus defeat us)just shows how deeply backward parts of the UK population are.
 
DomesticTadpole said:
I went to our Tesco's about 9.30 a.m. There was a guy there who would not let you in until you used their wipes and disinfectant spray on your trolley. I was wearing gloves as well. It was pretty quiet and same here, they have markers at the tills to keep people the correct distance apart. I got most things, of course there was absolutely no paracetamol, which I would have liked to buy, they were limiting some things like frozen chips to three per person and you could only get one lot of milk. I am not planning to go to any big supermarket for a couple of weeks now, it will be my local Co-op for anything I do run out of.
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My local co-op had nothing and they aren't even attempting to keep people separated or limiting how much you can buy. The Tesco Express literally opposite had the separation boxes outside and were limiting how many people in the shop at once, but again weren't limiting items so although had much more than co-op, they still had things missing.
 
Sweet Square said:


The use of the war on terror rhetoric(''We can't let this virus defeat us)just shows how deeply backward parts of the UK population are.
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I have never apologised so much in my life, if I go an inch too close to someone outside, it's 'Sorry! Sorry!' How difficult is it too wash your bloody hands. They should be washing their hands anyway. What is wrong with these people?
 
Redlambs said:
My local co-op had nothing and they aren't even attempting to keep people separated or limiting how much you can buy. The Tesco Express literally opposite had the separation boxes outside and were limiting how many people in the shop at once, but again weren't limiting items so although had much more than co-op, they still had things missing.
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I went to Aldi on Tuesday, for certain things. They were letting 30 in at a time, when someone came out another could go in. There was plenty of room inside, you could get a lot of things, excepted limited milk available again, they were limiting you to two paper products, so got toilet rolls and a big paper towel, for some reason baked beans have been cleaned out and I couldn't get minced beef, got some today at Tesco. I wouldn't want to be in the house with the family eating all those beans.
 
Been arguing for the last hour on Facebook with some moron saying that this virus is 'threatening to only a very small number of people' and we should just let it be. No arguments seem to work. And the worst of all, I had people all over the place jumping on me for 'letting governments tell me what to do' and 'not knowing the real truth about the virus'. One common thing for all conspiracy believers is that they are losers who failed in life and use conspiracies to explain their failures.
 
Sarni said:
Been arguing for the last hour on Facebook with some moron saying that this virus is 'threatening to only a very small number of people' and we should just let it be. No arguments seem to work. And the worst of all, I had people all over the place jumping on me for 'letting governments tell me what to do' and 'not knowing the real truth about the virus'. One common thing for all conspiracy believers is that they are losers who failed in life and use conspiracies to explain their failures.
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That would drive me insane. So many absolute idiots in this country.
 
Even the Nisa round the corner from me has chequer tape marking out 6 foot boxes to stand in both inside and out.

I think at this point any of the big stores not doing this have no excuses.
 
RedDevil@84 said:
Isn't that a stupid way to go about things? There is no need to give out the details of the person who passed away, but the stats need to be captured. Else how would the govt decide what scale of help is needed for the public.
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Obviously the government know exactly who died and use that information in their decisions. All this means is they don't necessarily tell the public.
 
Raw said:
That would drive me insane. So many absolute idiots in this country.
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Yeah I don't know why I even engaged. People like that are impossible to argue with because they don't have basic understanding of reality, all they know is what they read on one of the conspiracy sites and pretend to be better than 'stupid government controlled population'. What they don't realize is that the ones being tricked into believing in something dumb are them.
 
Think the Ebola experience is helping Nigeria. Everyone that has come in in contact with a confirmed case being bundled into isolation.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Look, we all know that these are difficult times for everyone, we don't need it constantly pushed in our faces by the self appointed experts on here, or those selectively posting the most "bad news" tweets they can find

There are loads of positives coming out of this, if people on here are too wrapped up in their conspiracy theories to see them then that's their problem

People are looking out for each other more, especially the old and vunerable
People volunteering more
People connecting more with their families through being together or home schooling
People realising that money is not the be all and end all
People realising what is really important
People realising that the people whose jobs are really important are actually those in food production, logistics, delivery, the care system and, of course, the NHS - often those who are paid the least
People seeing the benefits of socialism rather than capitalism and greed
Benefits for the environment
More awareness of mental health
People out exercising or walking as families that would never normally do so
The acceleration of a move towards remote working and the flexibility that this brings
The time to reflect or read or whatever
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Well said. This is the most depressing thread I have ever followed on the internet, good to see some positives.
 
DomesticTadpole said:
I have never apologised so much in my life, if I go an inch too close to someone outside, it's 'Sorry! Sorry!' How difficult is it too wash your bloody hands. They should be washing their hands anyway. What is wrong with these people?
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Yeah one of the weirdest thing to come out of the Covid19 crisis is just many people don't follow very basic and simple health advice, like washing their hands.

Maybe it's one of those thing where if you're not taught it at young age, it never catches on ?

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær said:
Yeah, I made a similar comment a few days ago. This isn't the aftermath of a terrorist attack. We need to behave appropriately.
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My only guess would be for the majority of western populations(Although particularly in Britain)the biggest national crisis before this one was the whole war on terror stuff. So this the first thing some people jump to.

It's all very bizarre.
 
Anyone coughing at UK police, shop workers faces two years in jail


LONDON (Reuters) - Anyone claiming to have coronavirus who deliberately coughs at emergency workers faces being jailed for two years, Britain’s Director of Public Prosecutions said on Thursday.

Max Hill said there had been reports in recent days of people coughing in the faces of police, other emergency workers and shop staff. Those responsible could face charges of common assault, he said.

“Emergency workers are more essential than ever as society comes together to tackle the coronavirus pandemic,” Hill said in a statement.



“I am therefore appalled by reports of police officers and other frontline workers being deliberately coughed at by people claiming to have COVID-19. Let me be very clear: this is a crime and needs to stop.”

On Wednesday, a 45-year-old man admitted three counts of assaulting an emergency worker after claiming to have coronavirus and directing coughs at London police officers arresting him for another offense, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

In Blackburn, northern England, a 40-year-old man was jailed after threatening to spit at officers on Monday after they had asked why he was out with two others following the government’s announcement that social gatherings should cease and that people observe strict rules on social distancing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...workers-faces-two-years-in-jail-idUSKBN21D2AC
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Sweet Square said:
Yeah one of the weirdest thing to come out of the Covid19 crisis is just many people don't follow very basic and simple health advice, like washing their hands.

Maybe it's one of those thing where if you're not taught it at young age, it never catches on ?


My only guess would be for the majority of western populations(Although particularly in Britain)the biggest national crisis before this one was the whole war on terror stuff. So this the first thing some people jump to.

It's all very bizarre.
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If washing hands is new on people, just imagine the state of the rest of their bodies.
 
Sweet Square said:
My only guess would be for the majority of western populations(Although particularly in Britain)the biggest national crisis before this one was the whole war on terror stuff. So this the first thing some people jump to.

It's all very bizarre.
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It's somewhat understandable to consider but when you actually think about it, this virus isn't attacking our society or way of life, it's simply attacking us and we need to protect ourselves. One could argue that it's taking massive advantage of our way of life, mind.
 
Sarni said:
Been arguing for the last hour on Facebook with some moron saying that this virus is 'threatening to only a very small number of people' and we should just let it be. No arguments seem to work. And the worst of all, I had people all over the place jumping on me for 'letting governments tell me what to do' and 'not knowing the real truth about the virus'. One common thing for all conspiracy believers is that they are losers who failed in life and use conspiracies to explain their failures.
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I'll admit I like a good conspiracy theory, but it's been pretty disappointing to see people so sure of themselves who have done so little research to reach that opinion.

Of course, the US has done itself no favors with its creeping fascism, that seems to be most people biggest concern, additional loss of liberty.
 
DomesticTadpole said:
I went to Aldi on Tuesday, for certain things. They were letting 30 in at a time, when someone came out another could go in. There was plenty of room inside, you could get a lot of things, excepted limited milk available again, they were limiting you to two paper products, so got toilet rolls and a big paper towel, for some reason baked beans have been cleaned out and I couldn't get minced beef, got some today at Tesco. I wouldn't want to be in the house with the family eating all those beans.
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It funny seeing different places’ reactions.

In England, stores run out of baked beans. In America, people are buying up all the ammunition and frozen pizza.
 
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