SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

JPRouve said:
Based on our past experiences with coronaviruses this is the one. As an example MERS-Cov came to humans from dromedaries but they were only an intermediary species which is generally required for the evolution of the virus from its original host to humans. So there is most likely one animal, exotic or not, that was infected by Covid-19 and infected someone from that point it's a simple interhuman contamination.
Click to expand...
I read an article the other day suggesting the intermediary species was a pangolin. I don't think it's accepted as a fact yet, but apparently based on similar viruses that pangolin are known to carry, it's a strong contender.

Incidentally, that same research also suggested that the jump from animal strain to human strain, was followed by a further mutation that made it much more deadly to humans.
 
How the hell did he get voted as president. And what's worse, he will almost certainly be voted again this Fall.
 
cyberman said:
Hes a dickhead but hes not wrong. The Tories actions cant be swept under the carpet by Murdoch etc despite how inappropriate it is to bring it up
Click to expand...

Who isn’t wrong? Trump?

Hahha, cnut said it was a democrat hoax in Feb, a few days ago he wanted to open in Easter.

He’s been wrong about fecking everything, except that he understands his whataboutism will fool idiots.
 
Adisa said:
His deflections don't even make sense. Don't have a clue why they always work.
Click to expand...


I love the country of America in itself, but the hoardes of right-wing Americans who voted this guy in, are now seeing the full hell of what they voted for begin to show itself.

This is what happens when you vote for a narcissistic businessman, a PR machine and a salesman and expect him to be a leader. He is reverting to what he knows best - self-preservation and 'protecting his brand' by deflecting attention away from the matter at hand and talking about other countries.

There will be many a right-wing, older American gasping for breath on their deathbed thinking what might have been had they not voted for someone just because he was an open racist.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Who isn’t wrong? Trump?

Hahha, cnut said it was a democrat hoax in Feb, a few days ago he wanted to open in Easter.

He’s been wrong about fecking everything, except that he understands his whataboutism will fool idiots.
Click to expand...

You can take what he said in isolation and as preposterously hypocritical as it is, that quote is objectively correct.
 
JPRouve said:
Based on our past experiences with coronaviruses this is the one. As an example MERS-Cov came to humans from dromedaries but they were only an intermediary species which is generally required for the evolution of the virus from its original host to humans. So there is most likely one animal, exotic or not, that was infected by Covid-19 and infected someone from that point it's a simple interhuman contamination.
Click to expand...
pangolin seems to be mentioned a lot.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Too early for that Pex.

This thing will “play out” over a long time. A vaccine in 2021 at the earliest.
Click to expand...

Its not too early at all. We already have the facts, they were using the wrong data model and working against international consensus. They realised they had screwed things up and changed course quickly. The whole “timing” narrative is typical governmental spin.
 
Pexbo said:
Its not too early at all.
Click to expand...

Of course it is, if a vaccine comes in say July 2021, lockdowns will have to stop in the next 2 months and then what?

There is a long long time for this to play out, and sadly, lots of people will die.

Every single government in the World lost their chance at a quick “easy” solution by not shutting out China in January.
 
jojojo said:
I read an article the other day suggesting the intermediary species was a pangolin. I don't think it's accepted as a fact yet, but apparently based on similar viruses that pangolin are known to carry, it's a strong contender.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's the original suspect but it's worth mentioning that officially we don't know who is the first human infected. For SRAS-covid 1 the suspected intermediary species is the Asian palm civet but even then it's not accepted as fact, just a strong possibility.

If people are interested Ebola and bats is an interesting subject to google, there is a lot of reading material. People may start to understand that we don't know as much as we think, for example the 800km argument used in one of the earlier tweets makes little sense when you consider the idea that for a while we thought that Ebola-Marburg like viruses were only from central Africa, now we know that some bats in West Africa(Liberia) and China have that type of filoviruses, the chinese one is named Mengla virus(MLAV) and genetically a filovirus between Ebola and Marburg.
 
Wibble said:
I don't disagree but aerosol transmission is possible, t stops you touching your face to some degree and other people often aren't good at social distancing. But to me the biggest advantage is that if you are infected it significantly reduces your ability to infect others. And all of this is about reducing risk of infection.

That said I'm not wearing one yet and being paranoid about social distancing.
Click to expand...
Trust me it really doesn't and people are better at social distancing rather than knowing how to use and put a mask on.

There are couple of important things to be noted(most of which are already covered):
1. reusable masks have to be changed every 1-2 hrs or as soon as it picks up moisture as they do zero prevention otherwise.
2. it builds bacteria on the inside and especially in hot days they become contaminated/damp very quickly.
3. large number of people don't know how to wear it or don't wear it properly because it impedes their normal breathing.
4. most people begin to touch their face more often to fix their mask or they touch the mask inside and out when they remove it temporary.
5. masks(ffp2 and ffp3) that actually prevent the droplets to come through are significantly more expensive and there is a shortage everywhere at the moment.
6. they also give you a false sense of security and in this way you won't distance yourself from others in the same mould of when you are not wearing one.
7. there are also other masks with ventilation which only protects you and doesn't let that much moisture to build on the inside but lets all droplets outside which is exactly the opposite of what masks should do.
 
Wibble said:
I don't disagree but aerosol transmission is possible, t stops you touching your face to some degree and other people often aren't good at social distancing. But to me the biggest advantage is that if you are infected it significantly reduces your ability to infect others. And all of this is about reducing risk of infection.

That said I'm not wearing one yet and being paranoid about social distancing.
Click to expand...

Unless the virus is instantly destroyed when a droplet evaporates to the surroundings then aerosol transmission is certainly possible. I'd have to calculate to be certain but many of the small droplets coughed/sneezed into dry air are going to evaporate in seconds - leaving the virus in open air?

A quick google suggests the mean size of a cough drop is about 8 microns. If I were guessing I'd say most don't ever reach the ground due to their small size, they are more likely to evaporate leaving the virus aerosolised.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Of course it is, if a vaccine comes in say July 2021, lockdowns will have to stop in the next 2 months and then what?

There is a long long time for this to play out, and sadly, lots of people will die.

Every single government in the World lost their chance at a quick “easy” solution by not shutting out China in January.
Click to expand...

Its all about time. This virus spreads exponentially, if you stop the spread earlier the number of cases is drastically lower and then you buy yourself time which is absolutely invaluable. Time to figure out what treatments are effective, time to manufacture PPE equipment and medical equipment like ventilators, time to get emergency wards in place, time to train healthcare staff up to date on the specific protocols required for the pandemic, time to negotiate international deals for the raw materials required to produce equipment, time for new equipment to be developed, tested and rolled out.

Our initial response was to allow a large majority if the population to get the virus and accept the fact that a few million would die. That response would have overwhelmed our health service and it wouldn’t have “just” been the old and vulnerable dying, as if that’s acceptable in a compassionate society anywaym
 
Pexbo said:
Its all about time. This virus spreads exponentially, if you stop the spread earlier the number of cases is drastically lower and then you buy yourself time which is absolutely invaluable.
Click to expand...

Oh absolutely, I’m not arguing that, but locking people in has never ever been done before. It worked in Wuhan seemingly but that’s one city, not an entire country and they had the biggest army in the World to enforce it.

I think Italy is in big fecking trouble, bigger than what they have seen so far, despite their drastic actions.

There’s no evidence SO FAR that locked in countries like Ireland and UK won’t end up with massive problems regardless in 3-4 months.

So that’s why I say it’s too early.
 
fergieisold said:
Unless the virus is instantly destroyed when a droplet evaporates to the surroundings then aerosol transmission is certainly possible. I'd have to calculate to be certain but many of the small droplets coughed/sneezed into dry air are going to evaporate in seconds - leaving the virus in open air?

A quick google suggests the mean size of a cough drop is about 8 microns. If I were guessing I'd say most don't ever reach the ground due to their small size, they are more likely to evaporate leaving the virus aerosolised.
Click to expand...

I'm buying a hazmat suit ;)
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
He could be wrong in that herd immunity might end up being the way out of this for some countries whether we like it or not.
Click to expand...

Herd immunity will absolutely be the final solution, there’s absolutely nobody that will dispute that. Natural herd immunity will slow the virus, almost complete herd immunity from a vaccine will get life back to normal.

Herd immunity from a national chicken pox party like the original plan was, is and always has been a mental idea. Our NHS would have been absolutely fecked. The best course of action would have been immediate early lock down and forcing our manufacturing capacity to start preparing us.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
He could be wrong in that herd immunity might end up being the way out of this for some countries whether we like it or not.
Click to expand...
From reading your posts you seem to have bought into Boris herd immunity idea and stuck with it even though they abandoned it long ago?
Herd immunity wouldn't bear fruit any earlier than it would take to develop a vaccine
 
Alabaster Codify7 said:
I love the country of America in itself, but the hoardes of right-wing Americans who voted this guy in, are now seeing the full hell of what they voted for begin to show itself.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. It will never occur to them that maybe, just maybe, other countries are doing something better than them.

If it does, they will just revert to trust in God.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Trust me it really doesn't and people are better at social distancing rather than knowing how to use and put a mask on.

There are couple of important things to be noted(most of which are already covered):
1. reusable masks have to be changed every 1-2 hrs or as soon as it picks up moisture as they do zero prevention otherwise.
2. it builds bacteria on the inside and especially in hot days they become contaminated/damp very quickly.
3. large number of people don't know how to wear it or don't wear it properly because it impedes their normal breathing.
4. most people begin to touch their face more often to fix their mask or they touch the mask inside and out when they remove it temporary.
5. masks(ffp2 and ffp3) that actually prevent the droplets to come through are significantly more expensive and there is a shortage everywhere at the moment.
6. they also give you a false sense of security and in this way you won't distance yourself from others in the same mould of when you are not wearing one.
7. there are also other masks with ventilation which only protects you and doesn't let that much moisture to build on the inside but lets all droplets outside which is exactly the opposite of what masks should do.
Click to expand...

Sounds sensible :)
 
Wibble said:
I'm buying a hazmat suit ;)
Click to expand...
You don't need the suit just the masks they wear. They are about £100 for the mask/hood and about £500 for the air flow unit (that feeds clean air into the mask). I'd be surprised if you could by them now and if you could they would probably be going for thousands. They have filters that need replacing and a battery unit that last for about 8 hours when new.
 
cyberman said:
From reading your posts you seem to have bought into Boris herd immunity idea and stuck with it even though they abandoned it long ago?
Herd immunity wouldn't bear fruit any earlier than it would take to develop a vaccine
Click to expand...

You think it was Boris idea? Has that guy ever had an idea? Haha.

I think the original plan was to go on the Swedish model, which may or may not be the final solution for all countries.

As I say time and time again, it’s too early to tell either way.

You guys seem certain though so I’ll leave my argument there, saying that I’m far from certain how this will play out anywhere.
 
Pexbo said:
Its all about time. This virus spreads exponentially, if you stop the spread earlier the number of cases is drastically lower and then you buy yourself time which is absolutely invaluable. Time to figure out what treatments are effective, time to manufacture PPE equipment and medical equipment like ventilators, time to get emergency wards in place, time to train healthcare staff up to date on the specific protocols required for the pandemic, time to negotiate international deals for the raw materials required to produce equipment, time for new equipment to be developed, tested and rolled out.

Our initial response was to allow a large majority if the population to get the virus and accept the fact that a few million would die. That response would have overwhelmed our health service and it wouldn’t have “just” been the old and vulnerable dying, as if that’s acceptable in a compassionate society anywaym
Click to expand...

It's the preparation or lack thereof that really anger me. We knew the NHS wasn't prepared and seemed to play a waiting game before we decided to actually bother to do anything.

We could have been a month ahead on so many elements of the planning not just the NHS but as a wider society. It just leads me to believe we were planning on herd immunity with limited lockdown and realised our mistake late with us now playing catchup.
 
Smores said:
It's the preparation or lack thereof that really anger me. We knew the NHS wasn't prepared and seemed to play a waiting game before we decided to actually bother to do anything.

We could have been a month ahead on so many elements of the planning not just the NHS but as a wider society. It just leads me to believe we were planning on herd immunity with limited lockdown and realised our mistake late with us now playing catchup.
Click to expand...

This is 100% true, but vote in a conservative government and that’s what you get. Although that said, pretty much all countries health services seem incredibly unprepared.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
You think it was Boris idea? Has that guy ever had an idea? Haha.

I think the original plan was to go on the Swedish model, which may or may not be the final solution for all countries.

As I say time and time again, it’s too early to tell either way.

You guys seem certain though so I’ll leave my argument there, saying that I’m far from certain how this will play out anywhere.
Click to expand...
Its the idea that Boris pushed but it does tie into his idea about ploughing on and taking it on the chin so not far off.
The problem with herd immunity is we dont know how long it lasts. Theres 2 other common forms of Corona that gives us the cold and that immunity lasts less than a year.
 
cyberman said:
Its the idea that Boris pushed but it does tie into his idea about ploughing on and taking it on the chin so not far off.
The problem with herd immunity is we dont know how long it lasts. Theres 2 other common forms of Corona that gives us the cold and that immunity lasts less than a year.
Click to expand...

And whether this disease gives you any other long term health issues.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Of course it is, if a vaccine comes in say July 2021, lockdowns will have to stop in the next 2 months and then what?

There is a long long time for this to play out, and sadly, lots of people will die.

Every single government in the World lost their chance at a quick “easy” solution by not shutting out China in January.
Click to expand...
Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.
 
Sarni said:
Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.
Click to expand...

You think like in the UK now we will stay like this until next year? Absolutely no chance. People will just ignore the advice within a few months.
 
Sarni said:
Lockdowns will not stop in the next two months. They likely won’t stop at all until vaccine is there. I know people are still in denial about this but this is how it will likely play out.
Click to expand...

I can't see full scale lockdowns lastings for that long. Social distancing will still be enforced though - preventing large gatherings/restricting travel and a sophisticated program to test & trace infections.
 
there seems to be a lot of praise for countries testing 50k, 75, 100k people per day. but what this has essentially meant is that these countries have 'stockpiled' the testing kits available on the world market, leaving other countries (admittedly ones who weren't as quick to realise the need, but nonetheless) scrambling around for whatever they can. surely there should be some international pressure for these countries to share these kits around a bit more to countries who aren't able to test effectively, in particular key health workers? stockpiling testing kits is the international equivalent of buying 10 packs of bog roll. yet these countries hoarding are praised for it.
 
fergieisold said:
You think like in the UK now we will stay like this until next year? Absolutely no chance. People will just ignore the advice within a few months.
Click to expand...

I think people are in for a bit of a shock in the next few weeks then. Some of that selfish rebelliousness will get knocked out when people close to them start to get taken ill seriously or worse start dying.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.