SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Absolutely and I understand your stance. But what do you do when money runs out, electricity gets turned off and you’ve no money to feed your kids?
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Yeah and what do you do when the kid loses a parent to corona? It works both ways. There’s no right answer in this.

But opening everything at once, I think everyone can agree would be madness. Doing it slowly would be the logical thing. Also still letting people into the country is madness.
 
cyberman said:
Nobody will be allowed to starve now.
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Mmm really? Even before this crisis people were dying thanks to benefit sanctions, that's hardly going to improve if this country economy collapses to the point we're basically third world.
 
massi83 said:
It isn't spot on. Required level for herd immunity is calculated like this: (R0-1)/R0, so if R0 is 3 then 67% infected is needed. But if we can bring R0 down to 1.5, only 33% infected is needed.

We can achieve that with masks (once enough is produced), banning mass gatherings and hand washing, increased testing and contact tracing and other similar activities. And still keep schools, restaurants and bars open and save millions of lives.
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OK, but over what period of time are you calculating getting 22 million people in the UK infected.

So that is approx 120'000 people a day getting infected and likely 1'200 dead every day for 6 months ?
 
Dancfc said:
Mmm really? Even before this crisis people were dying thanks to benefit sanctions, that's hardly going to improve if this country economy collapses to the point we're basically third world.
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Arent you more likely to have a family member at risk of literal death from this disease than starving to death?
We also cant force people to go out and spend money. The economy is fecked anyway. To save a lot of the businesses that are flagged here we will have to ignore social distancing etc and thats never going to happen
 
Dancfc said:
That sentiment will be all well and good if the economy doesn't relate to life.

A lockdown for any serious period of time will see to 60% of businesses (optimistic estimate) gone. With a significant number on the dole who will pay the taxes to keep the NHS running? Who will pay the taxes to keep the majority (yes majority) of families who can't find work housed and fed?
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Pretty much this
The furlough scheme isn't out of the kindness of rishis cold dark heart
It's because if 9 million people were made unemployed in a month with no way to feed their families there would be no social distancing because there would riots in the street, people raiding supermarkets and delivery trucks and probably the army deployed to try and maintain some semblance of order and delay as long as possible the transition into a madmaxian / walking dead type post apocalyptic economy based on who can cut each others throat the quickest

Not sure how anybody's family is safer in that environment
 
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Classical Mechanic said:
Regarding lockdowns, Belgium locked down sooner than anyone in Western Europe and they have twice the deaths per capita as the UK.
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You can't even compare that. Belgium goes probably the furthest of all neighbouring countries when counting deaths. We even count those who are suspected of dying with Covid 19, even though they aren't tested. If I'm correct, countries such as Netherlands don't count people who die in nursing homes or at home, while that is by far the biggest group here in Belgium.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
OK, but over what period of time are you calculating getting 22 million people in the UK infected.

So that is approx 120'000 people a day getting infected and likely 1'200 dead every day for 6 months ?
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It's better than if it is double more, right. Ideally we will find a sweet spot where R is 0.9-1.2 and economy can be fairly open. Whether that is possible or not, we need more info. That is what lockdowns allow us to do. Get more info and be better prepared with masks, tests and contact tracing and other factors.
 
cyberman said:
Arent you more likely to have a family member at risk of literal death from this disease than starving to death?
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Not if we turn into a poverty stricken society, no.

If the majority of people are unemployed, where the hell will the taxes come to keep all these families fed? Not to mention keep the NHS protected...
 
massi83 said:
It's better than if it is double more, right. Ideally we will find a sweet spot where R is 0.9-1.2 and economy can be fairly open. Whether that is possible or not, we need more info. That is what lockdowns allow us to do. Get more info and be better prepared with masks, tests and contact tracing and other factors.
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Well said. People are getting very hung up on a vaccine as the only intervention, as though nothing else will change while we’re waiting. Flattening the curve isn’t just about short term reductions in mortality. It buys us time to refine and improve our NPIs. Which will save a tonne of lives over the next year or two AND help us get the economy going again in the safest possible way.
 
onemanarmy said:
You can't even compare that. Belgium goes probably the furthest of all neighbouring countries when counting deaths. We even count those who are suspected of dying with Covid 19, even though they aren't tested. If I'm correct, countries such as Netherlands don't count people who die in nursing homes or at home, while that is by far the biggest group here in Belgium.
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Thanks. That just shows how difficult it is to compare countries at this point because there’s a vast vast amount of variables that affect outcomes.
 
Dancfc said:
That sentiment will be all well and good if the economy doesn't relate to life.

A lockdown for any serious period of time will see to 60% of businesses (optimistic estimate) gone. With a significant number on the dole who will pay the taxes to keep the NHS running? Who will pay the taxes to keep the majority (yes majority) of families who can't find work housed and fed?
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Unless you've got any figures (ones that aren't made up by you) to back any of these assertions up i hope people take it as the hyperbolic nonsense that it is.
 
balaks said:
How can you keep the peak below NHS capacity without total lockdown? You can't is the answer. There is no easy or quick way out if this.
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Partial lockdown and other measures. For a long time. Most likely up to 18 months. Like I said.
 
massi83 said:
It's better than if it is double more, right. Ideally we will find a sweet spot where R is 0.9-1.2 and economy can be fairly open. Whether that is possible or not, we need more info. That is what lockdowns allow us to do. Get more info and be better prepared with masks, tests and contact tracing and other factors.
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We are at around 1000 deaths per day. So this is it, where your thinking gets us(I am not saying you are wrong). A lock down that gives us this amount of deaths for the next six months.

That is best case.
 
Heardy said:
Wait, what?? Where did you get a 20% mortality rate from?
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From Worldometer the world is sitting on plus-minus 1.8 million confirmed cases of which plus-minus 110000 have died and 410000 have recovered so looking at the amount that dies is around a 5th of the amount that recovers. So with plus-minus 1.3 million active cases out there that can go either way and based on the numbers that have had an outcome then plus minus a quarter of a million people are at risk of losing their lives.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Of course this is a long-term problem. Equally, you can clearly seer that the Uk strategy in the opening weeks has been poor. Mixed messages galore in the opening weeks with huge gatherings of people taking place when the virus was already spreading like wildfire.

Now, the UK govt might look less inept in the longer term by being more decisive and communicating better than they have done so far. I genuinely hope this is what happens. It’s no reason to shut down criticism of their performance up until now.
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There have been some mixed messages and incompetence, I agree. The government have been on one side of things but I'm not really too fussed about the media campaign.

The actual strategy that''s being espoused by SAGE is far more important, imo. And they're evidently setting out for a marathon, not a sprint. That means following the same plan as everybody else but timing each stage with a view to lasting the course.
 
Josep Dowling said:
This is exactly it. Lockdown is not about waiting for a vaccine, which is not going to found. Herd immunity is the only way provided it’s controlled. But to even suggest that strategy seems to make you evil as it’s an acceptance people will die. It doesn’t matter which way round we do this people are going to die. You protect the most vulnerable as best you can and ensure the NHS can cope with everyone else.

I’ve been working from home for 4 weeks and already starting to lose my mind. I might not have a job in two months time. Many more are already out of work and worrying about paying their bills next or cash flow issues for the self employed who won’t get government assistance until June. The financial mess that people will begin to be in will cause people to have to do something to earn cash simply to eat.
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What makes the decision appear evil in people's eyes is not that it will directly lead to lost lives, but that it's animated by selfish motivations. Most people believe that the economic effects will lead to lost lives too, and tough decisions need to be made. What's driving those decisions is what people are concerned with.
 
Smores said:
Unless you've got any figures (ones that aren't made up by you) to back any of these assertions up i hope people take it as the hyperbolic nonsense that it is.
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More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.

Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.

To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...continues-to-ravage-the-economy/#352dc1394526

Here's further context in the form of a graph that has already seen jobless claims in the US rise by over 8 times it's previous record.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVKa_KjUEAEA9tY?format=jpg&name=small
 
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Don't Kill Bill said:
We are at around 1000 deaths per day. So this is it, where your thinking gets us(I am not saying you are wrong). A lock down that gives us this amount of deaths for the next six months.

That is best case.
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Lockdown started on 23.3.(?). Median death happens 21 days from infection, so we aren't seeing full effects of lockdown yet. Deaths will start to go down in UK just like they did in Italy.

UK can improve its testing and contact tracing a lot, as well as have people wearing masks. So we don't know everything yet.
 
Brwned said:
What makes the decision appear evil in people's eyes is not that it will directly lead to lost lives, but that it's animated by selfish motivations. Most people believe that the economic effects will lead to lost lives too, and tough decisions need to be made. What's driving those decisions is what people are concerned with.
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Here in South Africa before the virus put us on a 3-week lockdown which has since been increased by another 2 weeks we already were in a recession, compounded with being dropped into Junk status. Our unemployment rate was around 30% and a lot of people depend on day to day jobs to survive. People dig through our dustbins to get the plastic bottles so they can survive. The economic issues that most 1st world countries have thrown money cannot be done over here people over here face the very real threat of starving to death. Already made me chuckle people priorities 4 bottle stores have been looted because of the ban of smokes and booze sales. If this lockdown continues longer than the 5 weeks I really can see social unrest starting to rear its ugly head. Already my son's nursery school teacher has lost her job not 2 weeks into lockdown. Crazy times.
 
Dancfc said:
More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.

Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.

To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...continues-to-ravage-the-economy/#352dc1394526

Here's further context in the form of a graph that has already seen jobless claims in the US rise by 8 times it's previous record.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVKa_KjUEAEA9tY?format=jpg&name=small

It's only a matter of time before the reprocussions not only in the long term but in the moment will be so severe no form of something that even can be passed off as a recovery will happen in our lifetimes.
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I'm still failing to see how this tracks against the claim of 60% of businesses or the UK economy being so severely damaged that it can't fund the NHS or general welfare. The US isn't the best example as their rights are so far behind ours.

I'm certainly not arguing that the damage won't be severe especially on a personal level for SMEs but we're not in danger of either of these things unless we go into a decade long decline which sees big business crumble or leave.

As ever it's the little guy that will feel this and during the downturn big business will continue to make hay.
 
Dancfc said:
Not if we turn into a poverty stricken society, no.

If the majority of people are unemployed, where the hell will the taxes come to keep all these families fed? Not to mention keep the NHS protected...
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But pretending that opening up shops etc that abides by stead fast, bad needled health guidelines, will keep our economy going will not work.
Too many people out there will not risk it. The loss of jobs and business is simply unavoldable. Its the poorest people in the country that are being pushed forward in this very thread that will be the first to go.
Unless all ideas of social distancing and protecting the vunerable is mass forgotten by the public then the willing customer base just isnt there to keep the econony flowing.
Pubs in the area around me closed willingly before the lockdown simply because everybody stayed home that weekend. It was like a ghost town. Those businesses dont suddenly survive if regulatations are eased. Hell the public demanded closures here in Ireland
 
Smores said:
I'm still failing to see how this tracks against the claim of 60% of businesses or the UK economy being so severely damaged that it can't fund the NHS or general welfare. The US isn't the best example as their rights are so far behind ours.

I'm certainly not arguing that the damage won't be severe especially on a personal level for SMEs but we're not in danger of either of these things unless we go into a decade long decline which sees big business crumble or leave.

As ever it's the little guy that will feel this and during the downturn big business will continue to make hay.
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Brexit

It's morbidly funny how the whole country was desperate for Brexit to be over, by hook or by crook. Then when it finally happened on 31 January 2020 and C19 started on EXACTLY the same day. It was like the gods giving us the middle finger for being little piss-ants.
 
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Skills said:
It's the same test from everything I know. The test kit is what you use to to preserve the sample you take from someone.

The sample is then tested in a lab in a PCR. Funnily enough, my friends company in the middle are looking at supplying the kits from South Korea in different countries in the middle east. He sent me the sales pack for it
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So I was looking at this sales pack again, and it seems like the biggest bottleneck is that the PCR test takes ~ 2 hours to run.

And just looking online - most PCR machines are designed in a "96 well format" i.e. tests 96 samples in one go.

So one machine across a 3-shift pattern ~ 80% total productivity can carry out about a 800 tests per day.

Again looking online - one of these things costs about $25k USD. At the moment we have the capacity for 16,000 tests per day so to get to about 100,000 per day it will take another ~105 of these machines which is about $2.6m USD. Demand is probably quite high though & you have to factor in other costs such as the kits, labour, labs. Luckily we do have a lot of labs in this country - our universities definitely have the capability to support this on that type of scale.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Such a stupid point.

Why is New York much worse than Massachusetts?

Sweden’s second City Gothenburg is doing as well as their neighbors capitals (so far) which are of a similar size.
Right now Stockholm, an area of 2.3 million people, the most populous in the Nordics and where the virus has been circulating since late February has just 523 deaths and just 213 people in ICU.
Does that really tell that Sweden were “wrong”? Think again.
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Deaths per million
Sweden: 88
Finland: 10
Norway: 23
 
SAred said:
Here in South Africa before the virus put us on a 3-week lockdown which has since been increased by another 2 weeks we already were in a recession, compounded with being dropped into Junk status. Our unemployment rate was around 30% and a lot of people depend on day to day jobs to survive. People dig through our dustbins to get the plastic bottles so they can survive. The economic issues that most 1st world countries have thrown money cannot be done over here people over here face the very real threat of starving to death. Already made me chuckle people priorities 4 bottle stores have been looted because of the ban of smokes and booze sales. If this lockdown continues longer than the 5 weeks I really can see social unrest starting to rear its ugly head. Already my son's nursery school teacher has lost her job not 2 weeks into lockdown. Crazy times.
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fecked up situation we, and the rest of the developing world, find ourselves in yeah. The government will have to relax certain restrictions to curtail unrest, as you rightly pointed out.

People barely survived before the virus and with a lockdown, we don’t have near the capital of the developed world to help us along. On the plus side, Cyril’s at least acted swiftly and decisively. Whether you agree with the extent of the lockdown or not. So kudos to the government for that.
 
Ish said:
fecked up situation we, and the rest of the developing world, find ourselves in yeah. The government will have to relax certain restrictions to curtail unrest, as you rightly pointed out.

People barely survived before the virus and with a lockdown, we don’t have near the capital of the developed world to help us along. On the plus side, Cyril’s at least acted swiftly and decisively. Whether you agree with the extent of the lockdown or not. So kudos to the government for that.
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First time I have actually respected Cyril he acted swiftly and with some backbone but come 3 weeks time he has to make a rather very difficult choice and even than world travel won't be happening, imports/exports won't be happening so unlock the lockdown with limitations but this country will still have a large number of increased unemployment numbers and this will not change until the world gets the confidence to move again or a vaccine has been found - its madness I tell madness crazy times.
 
massi83 said:
Lockdown started on 23.3.(?). Median death happens 21 days from infection, so we aren't seeing full effects of lockdown yet. Deaths will start to go down in UK just like they did in Italy.

UK can improve its testing and contact tracing a lot, as well as have people wearing masks. So we don't know everything yet.
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With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
 
Dante said:
There have been some mixed messages and incompetence, I agree. The government have been on one side of things but I'm not really too fussed about the media campaign.

The actual strategy that''s being espoused by SAGE is far more important, imo. And they're evidently setting out for a marathon, not a sprint. That means following the same plan as everybody else but timing each stage with a view to lasting the course.
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So basically the same strategy as every other country. Trying to time the beginning and end of each lockdown to hit an optimal balance between preserving the economy and saving lives.

Only with a level of faffing about and uncertainty in the very early stages of the first wave that we didn’t see in any other EU country that had a similar amount of warning. Which is why the UK stats make such grim reading.
 
Buster15 said:
With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
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There will be plenty of data to analyze after this. We shouldn't be comparing to just a couple of countries though. More the better. Hopefully we can learn from this.

Lesson one. Fund pandemic response readiness.
 
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