SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dante said:
London has only 13% of the UK's population but 28% of its coronavirus deaths.

As much as anything else, the UK is a victim of the success of its capital on the global stage. The same goes for New York.
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Or it's a major city with a massive public transport infrastructure that aided virus transmission.
 
Jippy said:
A YouGov poll is hardly a 'clear consensus'.
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What do you think is a better indicator of public opinion? It's not like they asked a few hundred folks at a particular point in time. They surveyed 2,000 people every day this month and got the same result every time, across every demographic.
 
Aren't these UK fatality figures too high for a weekend?

I expected an even greater underreporting because it's an easter weekend.
 
Dante said:
London has only 13% of the UK's population but 28% of its coronavirus deaths.

As much as anything else, the UK is a victim of the success of its capital on the global stage. The same goes for New York.
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It's as bad in France if not worse, 37% come from Iles-De-France.
 
Buster15 said:
With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
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From the Germans themselves there are likely two reasons.

1. They were able to quickly test anybody with symptoms because they allowed tests at regional level rather than going to a central laboratory like everybody else in Europe. The fatality rate in Germany is likely not much better than anywhere else, they have just identified a higher proportion of their overall positive cases.

2. The virus was mostly brought into the country by younger people, and they have less contact with the elderly unlike in Spain and Italy. There have been very few outbreaks in German nursing homes and a higher proportion of their cases are in younger people.
 
UK : 737 new deaths (total 10, 612)
Total cases 84, 279 (increase of 5, 288)
They include a 26-year-old man and a 100-year-old man. Of the people who've died, 42 of them had no pre-existing conditions.
(from La Repubblica)
 
Camy89 said:
A vaccine in autumn could well be catastrophic. You're right that human trials need significantly longer to assess side effects.

My fear is that, in order to save face, governments (in particular, America) will just throw cash at a fast-tracked vaccine to be first to announce it 'Look at me, we did it, we're the best!'. It'll be pushed through on a wave of money and the calls of concern from the scientists working on it will be drowned out.

I can also guarantee that if this is the route the US goes down, Trump will have some conflict of interest in it which has not been broadcast.
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I think if a vaccine is ever developed it will come from Germany. They’ve got their ducks in a row in a way the US never will.
 
11101 said:
From the Germans themselves there are likely two reasons.

1. They were able to quickly test anybody with symptoms because they allowed tests at regional level rather than going to a central laboratory like everybody else in Europe. The fatality rate in Germany is likely not much better than anywhere else, they have just identified a higher proportion of their overall positive cases.

2. The virus was mostly brought into the country by younger people, and they have less contact with the elderly unlike in Spain and Italy. There have been very few outbreaks in German nursing homes and a higher proportion of their cases are in younger people.
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Who did that?
 
Walrus said:
My cousin is a doctor in London, last week he was moved off of his previous research onto a COVID-19 ward. Very first day on the ward he wasnt given PPE, and today has tested positive for it after developing mild symptoms. Shambles.
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It's ridiculous that we are still talking about PPE, If they are being asked to look after confirmed patients it's the equivalent of sending someone into a burning building without their fireproofs or breathing apparatus on.
 
JPRouve said:
It's as bad in France if not worse, 37% come from Iles-De-France.
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Exactly. Another crowded, international city with cramped public transport.

Just like London and New York, people travel in and out of the city frequently. Which makes contact tracing much more difficult than you'd find in smaller countries without major business hubs.

Germany's population/economy doesn't revolve around a single major city in the same way. Their epidemic developed along a different path, meaning they could control it in a different way.
 
Penna said:
UK : 737 new deaths (total 10, 612)
Total cases 84, 279 (increase of 5, 288)
They include a 26-year-old man and a 100-year-old man. Of the people who've died, 42 of them had no pre-existing conditions.
(from La Repubblica)
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I always get hopeful when I hear that the numbers have dipped on Sunday.

This week, I'm going to temper my optimism. Tuesday is the day I'll be paying attention to.
 
redshaw said:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...that-the-us-army-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan

Known as the USA virus in China

Hard to say how accurate the article, is, I'd hope most understand but won't say.
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I have friends in China in a few places. No one believes that it ever came out of anywhere other than Wuhan.
The Chinese are not stupid. This is the usual Asian bashing articles that newspapers write quoting someone. The Chinese social media is very active and is very varied. I am not saying that there is no one who has a different view but nothing I have seen or heard says the US brought it to China. Yes early on there was an official who said it could have come from anywhere but all official news I have seen has it coming from Wuhan.
 
Foxbatt said:
I have friends in China in a few places. No one believes that it ever came out of anywhere other than Wuhan.
The Chinese are not stupid. This is the usual Asian bashing articles that newspapers write quoting someone. The Chinese social media is very active and is very varied. I am not saying that there is no one who has a different view but nothing I have seen or heard says the US brought it to China. Yes early on there was an official who said it could have come from anywhere but all official news I have seen has it coming from Wuhan.
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Similarly, the Chinese ive spoken to are dumbfounded as to how wuhan can be blamed.
 
Dante said:
Exactly. Another crowded, international city with cramped public transport.

Just like London and New York, people travel in and out of the city frequently. Which makes contact tracing much more difficult than you'd find in smaller countries without major business hubs.

Germany's population/economy doesn't revolve around a single major city in the same way. Their epidemic developed along a different path, meaning they could control it in a different way.
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I agree with a lot of this Dante. God help the turks if it starts to spread in Istanbul
 
Questions at the presser are shite again. Only one person offering any real challenge, about care homes.
 
A work colleague is going to his girlfriends place every so often whilst living at home. I'm not sure if I should be angry but it annoyed me. That isn't meant to happen right? or am I mistaken.
 
Lay said:
A work colleague is going to his girlfriends place every so often whilst living at home. I'm not sure if I should be angry but it annoyed me. That isn't meant to happen right? or am I mistaken.
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No, he's not supposed to do that. It would annoy me too.
 
Lay said:
A work colleague is going to his girlfriends place every so often whilst living at home. I'm not sure if I should be angry but it annoyed me. That isn't meant to happen right? or am I mistaken.
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Your colleague is a moron. It's not supposed to happen.
 
Lay said:
A work colleague is going to his girlfriends place every so often whilst living at home. I'm not sure if I should be angry but it annoyed me. That isn't meant to happen right? or am I mistaken.
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You are right, he is a spreader/tosser.
 
Relevated said:
Similarly, the Chinese ive spoken to are dumbfounded as to how wuhan can be blamed.
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I am dumbfounded too as to how Wuhan can be blamed. I never said they said Wuhan is to be blamed. They said it most probably come from somewhere in the exotic market in Wuhan
 
Lay said:
A work colleague is going to his girlfriends place every so often whilst living at home. I'm not sure if I should be angry but it annoyed me. That isn't meant to happen right? or am I mistaken.
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You need to tell him he’s a dickhead.
 
Hancock weaselled out of that final question on the NHS and immigration. Should have reminded him of this tweet:

 
Dante said:
Exactly. Another crowded, international city with cramped public transport.

Just like London and New York, people travel in and out of the city frequently. Which makes contact tracing much more difficult than you'd find in smaller countries without major business hubs.

Germany's population/economy doesn't revolve around a single major city in the same way. Their epidemic developed along a different path, meaning they could control it in a different way.
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An other stat that I can't fathom is that they currently have 13000 Covid-19 hospitalisation, that's 41% of France's total.
 
A new disease can come from not only China. It can come from anywhere. Like for example :

Zombie deer disease
Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD)
Susceptibility of Human Prion Protein to Conversion by Chronic Wasting Disease Prions

I would not like my brain to become swiss cheese. But the fact is, we are getting closer and closer to humans contracting and spreading such an infectious disease.
When this is all over I hope all these diseases are taken seriously. We are messing with mother nature in so many ways that it is getting really creepy to think what the future will be like.

When it comes to the blame game, I stay away from that, but I hope for a stronger Europe to stay safe from the influence from China, Us, Russia. But the EU is not in good shape to be honest so I doubt it will ever happen.
 
Lay said:
A work colleague is going to his girlfriends place every so often whilst living at home. I'm not sure if I should be angry but it annoyed me. That isn't meant to happen right? or am I mistaken.
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Of course not. Your work colleague is an absolute dumb prick.
 
Fener1907 said:
How so?
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Climbing rapidly. 60k infected already and without knowing the numbers, I don't think they did more tests than any of the biggest european countries. Istanbul is a highly dense city also and I don't know which is his health care system but not at the same level than Spain, Italy, France and UK

Also, they have almost 4 millions of syrian refugees that I doubt they have much access to economic and health care system.

ON the other hand they have a respirators and textile manufacturers ans Istambul is probably one of the hottest and more humid areas that I had been in summer, and some studies says it reduces the spread
 
Brwned said:
What do you think is a better indicator of public opinion? It's not like they asked a few hundred folks at a particular point in time. They surveyed 2,000 people every day this month and got the same result every time, across every demographic.
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It's irrelevant if the government ends up being hellbent on relaxing restrictions early and reports are suggesting the cabinet is split on that, so who knows?
 
4bars said:
Climbing rapidly. 60k infected already and without knowing the numbers, I don't think they did more tests than any of the biggest european countries. Istanbul is a highly dense city also and I don't know which is his health care system but not at the same level than Spain, Italy, France and UK

Also, they have almost 4 millions of syrian refugees that I doubt they have much access to economic and health care system.

ON the other hand they have a respirators and textile manufacturers ans Istambul is probably one of the hottest and more humid areas that I had been in summer, and some studies says it reduces the spread
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Deaths are hovering around a hundred per day. Not ideal but, considering the number infected, it's not exactly an alarming mortality rate. In terms of tests, it's done more than countries such as Spain, France and the UK, nations with notably higher mortality rates.

Syrians receive regular money and have access to free healthcare here, so your doubts aren't correct on that one. In fact, if they arrive at a hospital, they're to be seen before anybody else. That would have people frothing at the mouth elsewhere but they're treated pretty well. I don't know why people imagine they're just left to wander around and have no means to support themselves.

All in all, a lot of work to be done, and a population of 80 million will inevitably experience more deaths, but the health service and general public are doing a decent enough job so far.
 
Dante said:
Exactly. Another crowded, international city with cramped public transport.

Just like London and New York, people travel in and out of the city frequently. Which makes contact tracing much more difficult than you'd find in smaller countries without major business hubs.

Germany's population/economy doesn't revolve around a single major city in the same way. Their epidemic developed along a different path, meaning they could control it in a different way.
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Berlin still has 3mil inhabitants, that's obviously not London or New York levels of density, but it's still a lot of people, despite that they "only" have 50 deaths are on record. Other big cities posted similar numbers thus far (Hamburg 56 deaths, Cologne 44 deaths, Munich 35 deaths). I'm not sure you can just put everything down to big cities.
The handling of the outbreaks seems just as logical a factor to me. E.g. the UK iirc being (among) the last big Euopean countries to shut down, or Cheltenham being allowed to go on, while almost all other events either banned crowds or cancelled entirely. I also read that London's public transport went to a Saturday schedule relatively early and afterwards I saw a London nurse complain on Twitter (obviously this is anecdotally) that she had to get to work via packed subway trains.
 
I live next door to a guy that’s plumber. He’s still in and out of peoples houses fixing essential things like boilers etc and his other half is a midwife in a hospital. She has two boys living with them and he has a son that stays a few nights a week usually.

At the moment the lad is staying with his Dad every 2-3 day and then returning to his Mum.

I feel very sorry for couples with children that are separated, but allowing a child to go from one household to another is ridiculous imo.

Surely the chance of contagion is much higher with a child going from one household to another so frequently.
 
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