In hindsight I think they should have chosen a better letter than R for the infection rate considering Boris says it every fourth word anyway.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Just to recap: a grand total of zero questions at today's briefing about the government meeting Matt Hancock's testing figure. What a sorry state of scrutiny.
Indeed, I had no hot water for a week during the early stages of the lockdown. The fact a plumber came, fixed the issue and maintained a safe distance whilst still putting himself at risk was amazing. I gave him a good tip and he went on to the next urgent job. Without that I would have had months with no hot water.
Electricians, plumbers and the like are at the top end of essential for house owners.
If I was Kim, I'd launch plenty of missiles right about now. As for Xi, this is the time to take Taiwan. And maybe even the world.
Ok, so your rules are a little more lax - and vague - than ours. And I know we’re not trying to reduce transmission to zero. We’re trying to reduce it to a point where we can ease the restrictions safely. The clearer the instructions and the better they’re followed, the earlier these measures can be reversed.
That’s the great irony in what’s happened in the UK. The week or two of faffing around in March - talking about the risk of lockdown fatigue if measures implemented too early - have probably ended up increasing the total duration of your lockdown. Likewise the people getting pissed off and starting to get out and about more than they should be. The end result is just a delay in getting back to (relative) normality.
For emergencies, absolutely. It wouldn’t be ideal if they’r cracking on doing as many jobs as normal.
I’ve had a personal experience of this. There’s a dripping tap in my kitchen. I need to replace the tap but it’s plumbed in in a really awkward location which will be a mighty faff to get at. I’ve been meaning to get a plumber round to do it. But that’s not an option right now.
Seems so. Even in the early "herd immunity" approach (if it existed), it would've been wise to somewhat control the spread. As someone mentioned earlier, international arrivals introduce a massive variable for modelling the local system.
Agree on the tracking. But I don't see how quarantine would've served no purposed until community cases vastly outweighed international cases - it's a straightforward way of isolating cases from critical countries (China, Italy, Iran, later Spain) and others while forcing a personal lockdown on only relatively small numbers of the population. Not that it would've prevented national lockdown, but any practical improvement of the initial conditions would reduce the length of lockdown.
I know it's easy to say this in hindsight, but it seems like such a fundamental tactic, even if just a precaution while gathering more information about transmission and severity. An unnecessary gamble was taken IMO.
In terms of manpower (although the technology is a different thing) it was pretty obvious to me that as the government are paying them for a period of time that furloughed staff could be asked to help with contact tracing and other critical jobs needed at the moment. Most of this could be done from home and a lot of the people will be highly educated, computer literate and a useful governmental tool.
Agreed, I would hope that if an electrician is called up to change a hallway light fitting or similar that they just say no unless it is immediately dangerous. It would be interesting to know if that's happening or not in England.
So how do we think the lockdown will end?
Will they just tell us next week and start it on rhe following Monday or will they give us a few weeks heads up with it starting say 1st june
Will they just tell us next week and start it on rhe following Monday or will they give us a few weeks heads up with it starting say 1st june
I was on a webinar today with WHO re framework for reopening schools
“Someone should test that”
Control of borders innit. Can do what they like
Can you go into this
Imagine Johnathan Woss was PM
Unfortunately the half term holiday in England was from Monday 17 Feb to Friday 21. If you include the weekends this means a large portion of the country was holidaying abroad from the 15th to the 23rd Feb. In many cases in Spain, Italy and France. Would not have been possible to quarantine or track and trace that number of U.K. residents let alone tourists into the country. Timing of the pandemic and the first school holiday period of 2020 combined to create a perfect storm for transmission of the virus. If you wade through the early posts you will even find entries from contributors that had booked/planned breaks abroad in early March who were still intending to travel.
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They started by saying that they have studied effects on children from past events such as Ebola outbreaks.
Concerned about children from neglected areas, for smaller children impact on social development and for older children they have seen that some children simply don’t come back to school, gave the example of African girls.
There is currently no conclusive evidence about kids transmission of infection to adults or that kids are immune.
Studies show that classrooms could be safer environment than travel, exercise, or general community.
Recommendation is that class sizes do not exceed 15 and that all safety measures are put into place (document that could be downloaded is available)
Recommend that only primary and day care is opened initially so that transmission spread is controlled more than if secondary and university level were opened too.
Ended with a study by Dutch and French modellers - France had to redo model after their government unexpectedly announced schools reopen 11 May.
A load of questions were asked which they didn’t get to, follow up to answer those next week.
Pretty much local decisions and community decisions need to be made at local levels to include local contexts
https://www.unicef.org/reports/key-...sease-covid-19-prevention-and-control-schools
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The plumbers and sparkies are working here for emergencies but two blokes can't travel in the same vehicle, they have to have their permission forms with them and they're being stopped constantly, according to our pal who's a builder here. As you say, you can't call them for a dripping tap. Our kitchen strip light died about a month ago and I've had to set up spare standard lamps in there as a make-do.
Boris kept congratulating UK for the amazing job we've done in lockdown, as if we've endured the toughest set of personal constraints and delivered the best results in the world.
Don't get it as, virtually every nation in the world had to go into lockdown, and most were more physically restrictive and financially more difficult, especially in poorer countries where daily labourers have to still live cheek by jowl and are close to starvation.
Our 'lockdown' has been the one of the most relaxed, with vast majority of people retaining majority of their income, and that has delivered one of the highest death rates in the world .... but yeah, well done team UK!
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To be fair DHSC are claiming 82k tests were carried out on 54.5k people yesterday. Obviously that ain't 100k but it's still a big improvement if it continues.
505 today under the old criteria so a very solid week of lower numbers
People just want the same questions asking time and time again it seems, if it was 99,999 someone would still want a journalist to ask what happened to the missing one.
As you rightly point out things are really improving on the testing now, which can only be taken as a really good thing.
Californian Governor, Gavin Newsom, to close all CA beaches, effective tomorrow. A lot were already closed but Orange County had been keeping the county beaches open. I was at the beach yesterday myself and it was quiet enough. Still, there were what looked like groups of unrelated kids hanging out together.
I figured this might happen after upwards of 50,000 people were reported at Newport Beach's beach during the heatwave last weekend.
Feckers! I knew they'd spoil it for all.
On more CA C-19 related information: the city of LA is offering free testing for all.
I figured this might happen after upwards of 50,000 people were reported at Newport Beach's beach during the heatwave last weekend.
Feckers! I knew they'd spoil it for all.
On more CA C-19 related information: the city of LA is offering free testing for all.
Is it really that dangerous once you get admitted to hospital? Christ.
Hasnt that always been this issue? It hardly effects most but if it gets to the stage you need hospital treatment your in trouble.
Not sure about Belgium, but I absolutely believe that the UK and US were not trying their best to save as many as they can from the start. They changed strategies in a hurry though, when it looked like hundreds of thousands are going to die. Sweden is still going, even when the death by capita rate is much higher than the rest of Scandinavia. I don't know if they don't care, or just don't want to care. Either way I find the readiness to take this risk a little too distasteful for my liking, whether or not it works out well in the end.
In the UK, I find the high number of care home deaths and the lack of hospitalisation for this specific population EXTREMELY dodgy, but I don't really want to go too much into any tinfoil hat theories. I'll speculate in my own mind for that one.
I saw an interview 3-4 weeks ago with an Irish doctor (she’s always on that late night discussion show). Not sure what hospital she was in charge off but she said that if you come into her hospital you had a 50/50 chance of living/dying.
Imagine that, the flip of a coin. That’s why I’m against going full speed on reopening. It’s scary shit for those of us who have health issues already
Holy shit. That’s a huge sample size too. 33% dead and 17% still sick, so the mortality rate could get higher.
Some Irish docs published a study today looking at the way covid fecks up our blood clotting system. Apparently the risk is 3 to 4 times higher in caucasians than Chinese. So this could cause mortality outside China to be a lot higher than the % we’ve been assuming based on Wuhan data.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bjh.16749
Still though. One in three hospital admissions ending up dead is horrific.
No you’re fecked when you’re admitted, you must have to be genuinely on deaths door.
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All the data coming out of China had a much lower mortality. Only 20% of admissions were ending up in intensive care.
That’s not true. You just have to need oxygen.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
@Suedesi
@Revan
We’ve discussed CFR before. Here’s a massive study from China (72000 confirmed cases) 2.3% dead.
@Suedesi
@Revan
We’ve discussed CFR before. Here’s a massive study from China (72000 confirmed cases) 2.3% dead.
A virus that is more virulent in none Asian’s. That’ll give the conspiracy theorists some ammunition.
I mean, if the virus is widespread and your healthcare system is over capacity, you will be a lot more selective in hospital admissions, which means only the sickest get hospitalised, which means you'll have a higher percentage of deaths in the hospital as you would if you were in control of the epidemic.
By the way, I just shared that BMJ article on whatsapp group with friends working in Irish hospitals. They don’t think we’re seeing anything like that kind of mortality. It’s an astonishing figure. Are only very very sick people being admitted in the UK? Do you have step down facilities in the community for less sick people who just need a bit of oxygen?
@africanspur
@africanspur
And kills much more men than women. Something for the MRAs to chew on.
I don't think the UK has been over capacity. The field hospitals are pretty much empty.
I looked into this more after you mentioned it on the weekend, and it has me quite nervy/worried about this again. It's good to see it's starting to get more attention though because it could really mess us down the line
It’s very much on doctors radar. The good thing is there are good drugs available to prevent clots. And forewarned is forearmed.