Just did. That's great news. Can't find any figures on sensitivity and specificity (unlike Roche who published theirs) but has been validated by St.George's in London and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and results submitted to Public Health England. Also good is their aim to deliver up to 46000 tests per day. Encouraging.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Just did. That's great news. Can't find any figures on sensitivity and specificity (unlike Roche who published theirs) but has been validated by St.George's in London and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and results submitted to Public Health England. Also good is their aim to deliver up to 46000 tests per day. Encouraging.
It is simply because they believe that the public will be happy to swallow all of the lies and propaganda they boast about.
"At least 46,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 14 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis. "
"These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount.
The city has become the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States. More than 27,000 people have died since the beginning of March — 20,900 more than normal, and 4,200 more than have been captured by official death statistics."
Early lockdowns appeared to prevent excess deaths
In a handful of countries, including Norway and Denmark, there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. Demographers say this is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — and because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.
Denmark announced a nationwide lockdown on March 11 before it had registered a single confirmed death. Norway announced a lockdown the next day, with just one confirmed death. In comparison to neighboring Sweden, which never implemented a national lockdown, Norway and Denmark have each recorded fewer than 500 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden has tallied over 2,500.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
| Area | PCT. above normal | Excess deaths | − | Reported Covid-19 deaths | = | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.K. Mar. 14 - Apr. 17 | 55% | 31,500 | − | 20,904 | = | 10,600 |
| Ecuador Mar. 1 - Apr. 22 | 82% | 9,900 | − | 842 | = | 9,000 |
| Spain Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | 82% | 25,400 | − | 16,921 | = | 8,500 |
| France Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | 47% | 20,600 | − | 14,266 | = | 6,400 |
| New York City Mar. 11 - Apr. 25 | 309% | 20,800 | − | 16,673 | = | 4,200 |
| Netherlands Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | 52% | 6,100 | − | 3,151 | = | 3,000 |
| Jakarta March | 57% | 1,600 | − | 84 | = | 1,500 |
| Istanbul Mar. 9 - Apr. 26 | 31% | 3,100 | − | 1,683 | = | 1,400 |
| Belgium Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | 62% | 5,300 | − | 4,500 | = | 800 |
| Switzerland Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | 31% | 1,500 | − | 988 | = | 500 |
| Germany Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | 3% | 1,400 | − | 1,330 | = | 100 |
| Sweden Mar. 16 - Apr. 19 | 24% | 2,100 | − | 1,998 | = | 100 |
| Denmark Mar. 16 - Apr. 19 | 4% | 200 | − | 354 | = | <0 |
| Norway Mar. 16 - Apr. 12 | Below normal | -100 | − | 124 | = | <0 |
"These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount.
The city has become the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States. More than 27,000 people have died since the beginning of March — 20,900 more than normal, and 4,200 more than have been captured by official death statistics."
Early lockdowns appeared to prevent excess deaths
In a handful of countries, including Norway and Denmark, there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. Demographers say this is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — and because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.
Denmark announced a nationwide lockdown on March 11 before it had registered a single confirmed death. Norway announced a lockdown the next day, with just one confirmed death. In comparison to neighboring Sweden, which never implemented a national lockdown, Norway and Denmark have each recorded fewer than 500 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden has tallied over 2,500.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Johnson said this morning that he plans to ease some lockdown restrictions. Does he not realise that numerous citizens will now take it as read to behave exactly as they please?
"At least 46,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 14 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis. "
Area PCT. above normal Excess
deaths− Reported Covid-19 deaths = Difference U.K.
Mar. 14 - Apr. 1755% 31,500 − 20,904 = 10,600 Ecuador
Mar. 1 - Apr. 2282% 9,900 − 842 = 9,000 Spain
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1282% 25,400 − 16,921 = 8,500 France
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1247% 20,600 − 14,266 = 6,400 New York City
Mar. 11 - Apr. 25309% 20,800 − 16,673 = 4,200 Netherlands
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1252% 6,100 − 3,151 = 3,000 Jakarta
March57% 1,600 − 84 = 1,500 Istanbul
Mar. 9 - Apr. 2631% 3,100 − 1,683 = 1,400 Belgium
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1262% 5,300 − 4,500 = 800 Switzerland
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1231% 1,500 − 988 = 500 Germany
Mar. 16 - Apr. 123% 1,400 − 1,330 = 100 Sweden
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1924% 2,100 − 1,998 = 100 Denmark
Mar. 16 - Apr. 194% 200 − 354 = <0 Norway
Mar. 16 - Apr. 12Below normal -100 − 124 = <0
"These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount.
The city has become the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States. More than 27,000 people have died since the beginning of March — 20,900 more than normal, and 4,200 more than have been captured by official death statistics."
Early lockdowns appeared to prevent excess deaths
In a handful of countries, including Norway and Denmark, there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. Demographers say this is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — and because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.
Denmark announced a nationwide lockdown on March 11 before it had registered a single confirmed death. Norway announced a lockdown the next day, with just one confirmed death. In comparison to neighboring Sweden, which never implemented a national lockdown, Norway and Denmark have each recorded fewer than 500 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden has tallied over 2,500.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Uk topping the charts again.
Yeah, nothing professional for me of course, but I've even found myself fudging my sources when talking to the family.
I sent a couple of them oximeters with explanations of their role from here. I warned another friend who's on blood thinners that monitoring her blood could be even more critical than normal at the moment (- she can self test but had run out of lancets, and was nervous about collecting them).
"I pick up my covid news on a United forum," doesn't sound that convincing.
It's the same old press thing of zero challenge to our shite response.
Given how densely populated London is, how we're we not expected to top the charts? If I'm not mistaken the covid 0 patients passing it here was during a time no other country had locked down or closed borders. It seemed pretty inevitable, but I would also like to think earlier flight closures could have helped massively.
The British notion that foreigners are, compared to us, always a disorganised rabble is ingrained, and won't change (except very gradually). Even my father & grandfather - from whom I literally never heard a racist word - would look at old news footage of, say, Egyptian workers in the Valley of the Kings and say things like: "Ha, look at that lot - every one of them wants to be the leader, and nothing's getting done properly. It's chaos."
That's what I mean about the, does it really work in lab tests question. I assume (but have no idea) that they have to dilute/wash the samples off the swabs anyway in individual tests - so maybe it's not a fundamental issue. Intriguing though, if it works, as it might open up a new route for (potentially faster) localised testing.
New York City and State are off the charts in regards to 10-19 million pop and 25k+ deaths. In areas like this it's spread far before the deaths roll in.
Looking at Spain and Italy is a good way to see what happens.
In Spain it spread very fast in Madrid and Spain started outpacing Italy by double the amount of deaths in a country with a much smaller population and is now under Italy by locking down. There's still many deaths and unfortunately for large countries with large tourism and travel with densely populated areas it's got a grip before they can possibly react but you' don't let the fire burn the whole mansion down, you put it out. There's millions of old people and people of all ages with underlying conditions in each country which have avoided this virus so far and we can buy some time to get test labs and stations in place, equipment made and ordered, take stock and come out different with routine testing, tracing and distancing, maybe even find treatments and better ways to manage patients plus most of all avoid overwhelming the hospitals.
Looking at Spain and Italy is a good way to see what happens.
In Spain it spread very fast in Madrid and Spain started outpacing Italy by double the amount of deaths in a country with a much smaller population and is now under Italy by locking down. There's still many deaths and unfortunately for large countries with large tourism and travel with densely populated areas it's got a grip before they can possibly react but you' don't let the fire burn the whole mansion down, you put it out. There's millions of old people and people of all ages with underlying conditions in each country which have avoided this virus so far and we can buy some time to get test labs and stations in place, equipment made and ordered, take stock and come out different with routine testing, tracing and distancing, maybe even find treatments and better ways to manage patients plus most of all avoid overwhelming the hospitals.
Italy Dates | Italy Deaths | Spain Dates | Spain Deaths |
Feb-23rd | 3 | Mar 5th | 3 |
Feb 24th | 7 | Mar 6th | 8 |
Feb 25th | 11 | Mar 7th | 10 |
Feb 26th | 12 | Mar 8th | 17 |
Feb 27th | 17 | Mar 9th | 30 |
Feb 28th | 21 | Mar 10th | 36 |
Feb 29th | 29 | Mar 11th | 55 |
Mar 1st | 41 | Mar 12th | 86 |
Mar 2nd | 52 | Mar 13th | 133 |
Mar 3rd | 79 | Mar 14th | 196 |
Mar 4th | 107 | Mar 15th | 294 |
Mar 5th | 148 | Mar 16th | 342 |
Mar 6th | 197 | Mar 17th | 533 |
Mar 7th | 233 | Mar 18th | 638 |
Mar 8th | 366 | Mar 19th | 833 |
Mar 9th | 463 | Mar 20th | 1,093 |
Mar 10th | 631 | Mar 21st | 1,381 |
Mar 11th | 827 | Mar 22nd | 1,813 |
Mar 12th | 1,016 | Mar 23rd | 2,207 |
Mar 13th | 1,266 | Mar 24th | 2,696 |
Mar 14th | 1,441 | Mar 25th | 3,434 |
Mar 15th | 1,809 | Mar 26th | 4,145 |
Mar 16th | 2,158 | Mar 27th | 4,858 |
Mar 17th | 2,503 | Mar 28th | 5,690 |
Mar 18th | 2,978 | Mar 29th | 6,528 |
Mar 19th | 3,405 | Mar 30th | 7,340 |
Mar 20th | 4,032 | Mar 31st | 8,189 |
Mar 21st | 4,825 | Apr 1st | 9,053 |
Mar 22nd | 5,475 | Apr 2nd | 10,003 |
Mar 23rd | 6,077 | Apr 3rd | 10,935 |
Mar 24th | 6,820 | Apr 4th | 11,744 |
Mar 25th | 7,503 | Apr 5th | 12,418 |
Mar 26th | 8,215 | Apr 6th | 13,055 |
Mar 27th | 9,134 | Apr 7th | 13,798 |
Mar 28th | 10,023 | Apr 8th | 14,555 |
Mar 29th | 10,779 | Apr 9th | 15,238 |
Mar 30th | 11,591 | Apr 10th | 15,843 |
Mar 31st | 12,428 | Apr 11th | 16,353 |
Apr 1st | 13,155 | Apr 12th | 16,972 |
Apr 2nd | 13,915 | Apr 13th | 17,489 |
Apr 3rd | 14,681 | Apr 14th | 18,056 |
Apr 4th | 15,362 | Apr 15th | 18,579 |
Apr 5th | 15,887 | Apr 16th | 19,130 |
Apr 6th | 16,523 | Apr 17th | 19,478 |
Apr 7th | 17,127 | Apr 18th | 20,043 |
Apr 8th | 17,669 | Apr 19th | 20,453 |
Apr 9th | 18,279 | Apr 20th | 20,852 |
Apr 10th | 18,849 | Apr 21st | 21,282 |
Apr 11th | 19,468 | Apr 22nd | 21,717 |
Apr 12th | 19,899 | Apr 23rd | 22,157 |
Apr 13th | 20,465 | Apr 24th | 22,524 |
Apr 14th | 21,067 | Apr 25th | 22,902 |
Apr 15th | 21,645 | Apr 26th | 23,190 |
Apr 16th | 22,170 | Apr 27th | 23,521 |
Apr 17th | 22,745 | Apr 28th | 23,822 |
Apr 18th | 23,227 | Apr 29th | 24,275 |
Apr 19th | 23,660 | Apr 30th | 24,543 |
Apr 20th | 24,114 | May 1st | 24,824 |
Apr 21st | 24,648 | May 2nd | 25,100 |
Apr 22nd | 25,085 | May 3rd | 25,264 |
Apr 23rd | 25,549 | May 4th | 25,428 |
Apr 24th | 25,969 | May 5th | 25,613 |
Apr 25th | 26,384 | May 6th | 25,857 |
Apr 26th | 26,644 | | |
Apr 27th | 26,977 | | |
Apr 28th | 27,359 | | |
| Apr 29th | 27,682 | ||
| Apr 30th | 27,967 |
Last edited:
These are probably some of the reasons why the government of my country, Indonesia, in the last minute decided to go against a lockdown and opted for a large-scale enforced social distancing in so-called 'danger zones' such as Jakarta instead. People living in poverty, to which there are millions here, are stressed enough without these countermeasures let alone a full lockdown. Here, offices but a few exceptions for several key sectors, factories, retail stores and shopping malls are closed; social, cultural and religious events are banned; restaurants and street hawkers (a major source of livelihood for many) are takeaway only; banks, supermarkets, most informal markets (another very large source of livelihood for many) and corner shops are open with social distancing protocols in place. Intra-province public transport is open whilst inter-province travel is banned for everyone unless for extraordinary circumstances and this requires a special permit. Those measures have fortunately slowed down the growth of corona cases and deaths in Jakarta, although testing hasn't been up to par.
I just don't think there's a one-size-fits-all solution in slowing down the spread of virus. Lockdowns in general help, of course, but it's not the be all and all. Take Jakarta. You have hundreds of thousands, most likely even millions, of people here living in squalid conditions in our shantytowns. Folks there earn their meagre wages daily, a twenty square meter room is often shared with five to six people and toilets are public. How are you going to impose a lockdown for an extended period of time when taking such circumstances into account? Without sacrificing people's livelihoods and probably even lives, you can't, because the government of a developing economy like Indonesia just don't have enough money to support the livelihoods of millions for an extended period of time. This is why I've always been sceptical when governments (especially of developing countries) shout lockdown left and right without considering its long-term implications.
As difficult to implement as it may be, I'm proponent of a more balanced approach for this reason: a 'soft' lockdown and coupled with an overzealous test, track and isolate regime, but then again different countries are different! In Indonesia's case -- despite the fact that our government, in my opinion, has done the right thing by opting against a full lockdown -- needs to do a lot more in the testing, tracking and isolating front.
I wonder what @Sky1981 has to say about this.
there have been a few indications that it’ll be 99%+
just waiting on confirmation from phe which should be in the next day or two (was submitted a couple of weeks ago and it usually takes a couple of weeks). then the design will be frozen and they can get on with making them.
Boris is making a big announcement on Sunday and I expect he’ll trumpet this as a success.
London isn't even that densely populated is it? not on the face of it when compared to Paris, Barcelona or Brussels etc. There could be more nuanced details like possibly Londoners work in closer proximity or have more packed transport but shouldn't be enough to excuse the death toll.
The population of London is greater than Paris, Barcelona and Brussels combined isn't it? It's densely populated enough to spread like wildfire and with that many people it seems a higher death total was an inevitability.
“Taking back control” means doing bugger all when the shit is hitting the fan
My neighbours had to take their kid to temple street the other day - hurt himself in the trampoline. Apparently there were 3 other trampoline related injuries waiting too
I thought the same. But it is surprising how effective their PR is.
Thanks for your posts in this thread, I always find them insightful and full of real clarity.
Thanks for your hard work too obviously!
Wrong questions, he should be asking for the modelling to be made publically available. There will have been models that show how many fewer cases we theoretically would have had if we'd have locked down earlier. On top of that the impact of us abandoning community test and trace.
Of course there's an argument that it's delaying the inevitable but you can have the debate now in the context of decisions we've already made. The current numbers alone aren't a useful indictator of effectiveness.
Apparently, and I quote, there are a number of different ways to measure deaths.
Yes it is.
And very simple 3 word messages.
But eventually, these empty promises and spin will be seen for what they are.
Second phase of downsizing the lockdown in Belgium starts on Sunday, some small changes:
- 4 persons can come and visit you, but always the same 4.
- All shops can reopen on Monday. Only 1 customer per 10 m², and a maximum of 30 minutes inside the shop.
- Masks are recommended. Mandatory on public transport.
Next steps will be taken on May 18th, if everything goes according to plan. Museums and libraries would probably reopen, hairdressers can go back to work, more people allowed at weddings and funerals...
Nothing about bars and restaurants yet. Competitive sports are forbidden until 31/07.
We are at about 40.000 tests per million inhabitants at the moment.
- 4 persons can come and visit you, but always the same 4.
- All shops can reopen on Monday. Only 1 customer per 10 m², and a maximum of 30 minutes inside the shop.
- Masks are recommended. Mandatory on public transport.
Next steps will be taken on May 18th, if everything goes according to plan. Museums and libraries would probably reopen, hairdressers can go back to work, more people allowed at weddings and funerals...
Nothing about bars and restaurants yet. Competitive sports are forbidden until 31/07.
We are at about 40.000 tests per million inhabitants at the moment.
A worrying proportion do believe it though- the UK equivalent of those millions in the US who've never had a passport.
What other (remotely plausible) strategy is there for any country bar possibly a handful of outliers?
I think it is becoming increasingly clear and will do even more so as time passes that one of the most relevant stats will be morons per million and that the UK and USA are streets ahead.
Nah. Look at the States and how many of them are believing Trump and a continuous stream of lies. When the information channels fail to portray an objective view and/or over a critical part of the populous are indoctrinated or more interested in what fits their narrative or worldview rather than factual/scientific truths, then you get a large portion of people that are unable to make up their own decision and unwilling to reconsider their own views based on new information. This goes both ways.
The same tendencies, regarding the media and a more populistic/Trumpistic governmental public relation strategy, are already happening. It all depends on the ability of the average Englishman to be able to make up his own opinion. You already "failed" with Brexit two times, and you elected an obviously incompetent and morally unscrupulous man as prime minister. So I'm not so sure about England/UK not turning into USA 2.0 within the next 10 years.
How you feeling?
Paris, as in the 75, is a lot more dense than London with 20k inhabitants per square kilometers against 5.6k for London, it's also where everyone in Iles-De-France congregates for work, there are also commuters from other regions and countries. Paris is a relatively small city but it's dense and has a large suburb which is also actually dense because a large part of it is made of forest and fields(lots of cereal producers), so the suburb is made of pockets of densely populated areas. And a bit of trivia Marseille is more than twice as big as Paris, it's also smaller than the city of Nimes.
Better thanks, temperature has come down too so fingers crossed it was something of nothing.
I took the opportunity to bin our trampoline when we moved house after going out for beers with a neurosurgeon who told me it would half the number of paralysed children with spinal cord damage he operates on each year if trampolines were made illegal.
Good stuff man.
This is gonna be a clusterfeck and not really feasible imo. I know they HAVE to rely on common sense from us but I simply don't trust the majority of our people. It feels unnecessary and rushed because of Mother's Day - I don't think anyone would have complained if it was allowed again as from the 19th. I realize I'm in a privileged position though since my mother walks past my house every few days and I go running with my father occasionally - maybe the less fortunate really couldn't bear it anymore and this is a good thing, but I'm skeptical for now.
Luckily they're predicting rain and only 15°C for Sunday, otherwise the BBQ squad would be out in full force.
I feel a bit bad for the prof and his lady friend getting thrown to the wolves.
Agreed. There was no need to reveal the visitor's identity. The press is just absolutely vile in this country.
Doesn't the UK have any press ethics laws or oversight? There's no way anything even remotely like that would fly in Norway.
"At least 46,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 14 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis. "
Area PCT. above normal Excess
deaths− Reported Covid-19 deaths = Difference U.K.
Mar. 14 - Apr. 1755% 31,500 − 20,904 = 10,600 Ecuador
Mar. 1 - Apr. 2282% 9,900 − 842 = 9,000 Spain
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1282% 25,400 − 16,921 = 8,500 France
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1247% 20,600 − 14,266 = 6,400 New York City
Mar. 11 - Apr. 25309% 20,800 − 16,673 = 4,200 Netherlands
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1252% 6,100 − 3,151 = 3,000 Jakarta
March57% 1,600 − 84 = 1,500 Istanbul
Mar. 9 - Apr. 2631% 3,100 − 1,683 = 1,400 Belgium
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1262% 5,300 − 4,500 = 800 Switzerland
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1231% 1,500 − 988 = 500 Germany
Mar. 16 - Apr. 123% 1,400 − 1,330 = 100 Sweden
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1924% 2,100 − 1,998 = 100 Denmark
Mar. 16 - Apr. 194% 200 − 354 = <0 Norway
Mar. 16 - Apr. 12Below normal -100 − 124 = <0
"These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount.
The city has become the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States. More than 27,000 people have died since the beginning of March — 20,900 more than normal, and 4,200 more than have been captured by official death statistics."
Early lockdowns appeared to prevent excess deaths
In a handful of countries, including Norway and Denmark, there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. Demographers say this is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — and because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.
Denmark announced a nationwide lockdown on March 11 before it had registered a single confirmed death. Norway announced a lockdown the next day, with just one confirmed death. In comparison to neighboring Sweden, which never implemented a national lockdown, Norway and Denmark have each recorded fewer than 500 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden has tallied over 2,500.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
That's an excellent summary. Of course people in denial will not believe any of these but basic grasp of mathematics shows you it's a real and serious issue.
It would pass public interest criteria I reckon.