Marr was interesting this morning. David Spiegelhalter, the well-regarded statistician, was lamenting the government for its “number theatre” during the daily press briefings. I agree with him, too. The general public are too consumed with the overall deaths numbers per day and it’s overwhelmed any sort of rational discussion surrounding the figures and logical next steps. It’s been reduced to: 600 people died yesterday; extend until we’re safe!
I understand the anxiety. But, it’s so much more nuanced than that, in reality. He went on to explain that there are 10 million children aged 15 and under in the UK. Two have died with COVID. He then explained that there are 17 million under 25s in the UK, 26 of which have died with COVID; many of them had underlying health conditions, too. Lockdown will have suppressed these numbers, although it’s also arguable that the virus was spreading through the community weeks and months prior to lockdown measures. I’d be interested to see the cancer and suicide death tallies for those within these age brackets for comparison.
On the other hand, 1% of 90+ people have died with COVID, which is frightening. They are, therefore, 10,000 times more at risk than younger people to the virus.
Firstly, it really highlights just how depressingly lethal this virus is to the older demographic. It reinforces, also, just how farcical the government’s (non) approach to care homes has been. Secondly, it’s important that the government emphasise to the general public that this virus isn’t particularly lethal to younger people. Yes, they can transmit the disease, and sensible measures should be implemented to reduce the spread, but there are far too many people that think their chances of dying with COVID is far higher than it really is. I’ve been speaking to parents of primary school children in recent weeks and there has been a substantial number that remarked that they were unwilling to send their children back to school upon return. It would be unprofessional to do so, so I didn’t, but the overwhelming thought that went through my head was that their child is more likely to get hit by a car outside the school gates. The government needs to engage in a far more adult conversation about the reality of this virus.
And I hate to bang on about it, but the economy really is lives. We have about 7 million people on furlough in the UK right now. I’m not sure that the general public have truly grasped just how many of those jobs will no longer exist in twelve, maybe six, months time. When they go, what do you do to replace them? I’m from a mining town. The last time an industry was disbanded, people were left to rot.
“X, Y and Z will be there when this all blows over.”
Often uttered, that is. It’s also completely wrong; uttered by those who, through no real fault of their own, have yet to truly understand the long term complexity of the situation. They say 600 deaths on the tele and fixate on that, understandably. But they’re wrong to do so. A lot of people in this country are going to be absolutely fecked, for want of a better phrase. It’s why I cringe, somewhat, when I read messages, tweets and other comments that appear to embrace the ongoing lockdown. Really, it’s a middle class luxury for many. For the disadvantaged, it’s potentially a death sentence.
