Seasonal epidemics are usually because warm weather keeps everyone out doors and spread out. Poor weather keeps them indoors and squeezed together. What will make all the difference here is where they end up indoors. If it’s the usual places, like pubs, restaurants, theatres, gyms, cinemas etc then we’re due a big spike.
If those places stay fairly empty with people choosing to stay home instead (which is, I think, likely) then we might avoid a big fall/winter surge. With an added benefit that we’ll probably also avoid the annual flu epidemic that puts the health service on its knees every year.