If there's a court presiding over that you'd really have to question their common sense
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
If there's a court presiding over that you'd really have to question their common sense
The judge pretty much laughed at the man, and dismissed the case.
Personally i think reopening the pubs and nightclubs would be a disaster. My family is good friends with a pub owner, so i would not say that to their face. But i hope the pubs are closed for a while.
TBH, there are so many things where you could say, that would be bad to open up, like a restaurant. But they can do takeaway. Public transport would be another hotspot for spreading the virus.
Seems it's more complex than that. If thousands have it without knowing, it follows that at any one time thousands more (probably many times more than have it actively) have already had it without knowing. If we assume that confers some level of immunity and they can't catch it again in the short term then they can't spread it so the virus hits a dead end.
It's also likely that those who had had it during the lock down period (given measures in place) are the "super spreaders" - i.e. those who are most likely to get it because of their job, use of public transport etc.
As i understand it (I am not an expert and will happily be corrected by anyone who knows more), this is the loose basis for herd immunity and the theories doing the rounds that it can be reached well before the vast majority have had it. That's one suggestion why the R0 was 0.4 in London according to the figures published by the Government yesterday, i.e. those spreading it have already had it and the virus is effectively petering out.
It really surprises me that none of the important data is being captured and syndicated.
Anonymised and aggregated data of all Covid positive patients Would create such a strong picture.
Ignore the first two weeks after lockdown.
Every case since then could surely have listed every single place they’ve been for the past two weeks, who they’ve seen, how many people they’ve seen. A kind of retrospective track and trace.
You’d hope that even relying on humans inherently unreliable memories you’d be able to find some commonality of infection. Be that children, public transport, take aways, parcels. Then age rated infection rates within all of these possible/probable sources.
By now we’d have a solid block of data to lean on, if not quite rely on.
If you test positive for an STD you’re required to tell all recent Sexual partners. That’s surely a far more invasive requirement than giving some anonymous data when sick.
Appreciably this may already be happening. But if it is there’s not much sight of it.
Anonymised and aggregated data of all Covid positive patients Would create such a strong picture.
Ignore the first two weeks after lockdown.
Every case since then could surely have listed every single place they’ve been for the past two weeks, who they’ve seen, how many people they’ve seen. A kind of retrospective track and trace.
You’d hope that even relying on humans inherently unreliable memories you’d be able to find some commonality of infection. Be that children, public transport, take aways, parcels. Then age rated infection rates within all of these possible/probable sources.
By now we’d have a solid block of data to lean on, if not quite rely on.
If you test positive for an STD you’re required to tell all recent Sexual partners. That’s surely a far more invasive requirement than giving some anonymous data when sick.
Appreciably this may already be happening. But if it is there’s not much sight of it.
The restaurants in Italy have been told they have to operate with far fewer tables, the staff have to wear masks and gloves and the customers have to wear masks if they leave the table. I don't think many restauranteurs think it's going to be economically-viable to run like that for long.
Maybe move everything outdoors if they have space. You would be less likely to catch the virus outdoors.
But that would not be feasible in other countries where the weather is poor.
No way am i eating in a restaurant for a while. Its burger king takeaways for the next two years.
This is where the future of dining out will go - to home delivery. I can see many moving to dark kitchens
I've eaten in two restaurants over the weekend. It was pretty much business as usual. But waiters have to wear masks and tables have to be 1.5 metres apart which hardly made a difference. As long as there are enough customers, restaurants should be fine here. Same thing in pubs/bars although we couldn't sit directly at the bar and had to take a table.
Oh, and in one place the menus smelled horribly of disinfectant.
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Yeah, pubs, clubs, restaurants and public transport will be a big problem for the next year or so.
Is there any way of finding the rates of nosocomial infection yet in the uk?
I mean I assume not without a track and trace system in place. But maybe we could find out how many of the positive cases are from the health care workers and how many are from the community
I mean I assume not without a track and trace system in place. But maybe we could find out how many of the positive cases are from the health care workers and how many are from the community
People will be reticent to go to doctors and dentists as well. 90% dentists in ireland were out of work when the shut down happened.
Anything really that is a contained compact area, is dangerous.
Having said that if one of my fillings fell out i would have to go to the dentist straight away. The pain would be unbearable.
Vaccines take really long to produce. They have to grow them in chicken eggs. Three eggs equals one vaccine i read.
There is no answer for that, we're properly fecked. If Portugal is a country that relies a lot in tourism as a whole, a region like Azores in particular relies almost entirely on it, as our alternative industries are, due to geographic reasons, massively uncompetitive.
Tourism in the best of days is already an unreliable endeavor. We benefitted a lot from turmoil in places like Egypt and Tunisia - and hence are equally vulnerable to an eventual return of stability in those places (a good thing obviously). In the past 10 years the investment in tourism has been huge and helped us recover from the 2008 crisis.
It has all gone to the gutter. Even if somehow we could open up "normally" and trust the virus to remain magically low during the summer, the loss in demand will be so big that there's no way a sizeable portion of business will sirvive the summer. Let alone with the expected resurgence in cases and the restrictions that will have to remain in place.
If things like low-cost air travel become a thing of the past, like some believe, then not even looking a few years into the future will make things look brighter.
They surely must have that data. We get a breakdown every day re community vs HCW cases. 1 in 4 of our total cases is an HCW.
There are vaccines for animal corronaviruses and there are very promising vaccines for SARS and MERS either in or about to start human trials. QUT have already got a vaccine that has shown a very strong immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and will soon go to human trials. Of course drugs can fail human trials for safety/side effect reasons but I think there is a very high chance that at least 1 of the 70+ vaccines being developed will work.
Thanks for the info Wibble.
They've got some data like that but what's been released of it is limited.
They've started doing mass test samples and using the figures to compare. I think it becomes easier to do stuff like this as cases go down as it frees up resouraces to do sample testing and monitering. It's already clear health or care workers are much more likely to be affected. I also think there'll be a bucket load of data that isn't made public because it'll just fuel bickering when difficult decisions get made.
I also from working in government can pretty much guarantee they'll have an absolute endless amount of data about how many people are likely to follow advice, behavioral patterns, people per area, and so forth. They'll be looking really closely at data from other countries who are doing things differently or on a different timeline. So they'll know full well what is likely to happen when they tell people they can go sit in a park, etc.
I really don't see how more people being out will make any significant difference, personally. The people ignoring social distancing will be the same ones who already were ignoring it. People have also still had to go out to do shopping the whole time, and this involves queuing together, bumping into each other, being in a large building with circulating air with hundreds of other people and touching all of the same things as them. If something like that has no noticable impact on case numbers, a load of people sitting or walking about not particularly near each other in the open air is a near non event.
Public transport would be the head scratcher I think. All well and good telling people not to use it, but where I am for example, 100% of people who commute into London have no choice, and it's not possible to run more trains than they already do during peak times. If the aim is going to switch to eliminating the virus rather then just getting numbers under control this seems like a pretty massive obstacle. Probably a bigger one even than hospitality venues, where you can at least regulate distance and capacity to a degree. Though I don't think eliminating it is ever going to be an option in England anyway.
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Just my take on it and there are plasma therapy trials going on that potentially achieve a similar outcome.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-is-plasma-therapy-137813
Although as the article states there are apparently some potential concerns in case it causes antibody-dependent enhancement (the reason some Dengue fever reinfections are worse than the first time around) and/or the theoretic risk that pre-formed antibodies may block the body's own immune response as happens with infants who get antibodies from their mother. I have no idea how likely these issues are to occur - I guess that is what human trials are for. And then there is the general risk of spreading other blood borne infections.
Hospitals a major source of community transmission
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19
Australia is slowly reducing restrictions even though we can't quite seem to eradicate the virus. NSW and particularly Victoria are being more cautious as they have more current cases but is has begin. Down to 9 new cases yesterday despite continued large scale testing. Some states are close to eradication e.g. South Australia have no new cases for a week and only 2 active cases still recovering. We had our 99th death reported today. Terrible but a fraction of the toll elsewhere.
What do you think of the current border restrictions, e.g. NSW-QLD? NSW has been averaging community transition of 4 per week for the last couple of weeks. I understand the caution but what kind of numbers are QLD waiting for?
Hard top say but it has been flagged as possibly being September before they open the border. I guess that in an ideal world states who have eradicated (or at least had no new infections for a few weeks or more) would open the border to other states in a similar position. So NSW and Vic likely to be last cab off the rank.
Fortunately, we are in 2020 and the technology has advanced. It won’t grow in chicken eggs like old vaccines (smallpox for example). Instead, it is gonna be totally lab based (it won’t even contain the virus), just proteins to reprogram the cells to fight the virus.
In theory, it should be safer than any other vaccine, and it should not take near as long to be mass produced. In practice, no vaccine of this type has been put in real-world yet.
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There are already several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in human trials. The first one (from Moderna) was administered in Seattle in a few humans around 2 months ago (and the signs seem to be good). Since then, the Oxford vaccine has gone in human trials, as has gone a vaccine in China. Likely, there are other vaccines in human trials.
Moderna is soon staring Phase 2 trials, and already got licensed for Phase 3 (expected to start on the summer). With a bit of luck, the medical service might get vaccinated before Christmas, though more realistically it is gonna happen early next year. If everything goes right, obviously.
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Whilst they may be heralded as the latest 'success' story if you look at the testing numbers per capita, its pretty low. That will always put a question mark to the validity of their statistics.
Peter Doherty recently said that one of the vaccines undergoing trials was already in commercial production in anticipation of it passing human trials - in which case a roll out beginning in September might even be vaguely possible. Probably wishful thinking but wouldn't that be great?
I think that the US is operating on similar manner. They are planning to start mass producing it, and so have millions of doses ready by the time trials end.
Still September looks quite optimistic to me. Even if stage 3 trials start on the summer (likely late summer, cause stage 2 trials have yet to start), I don’t see how September is realistic. I assume that at least 3 months are needed to be able to conclude anything (probably double that amount of time to have some high confidence).
For most people, I think it is unlikely that we can get vaccinated until next summer. Though the elderly and medical personal might be fast tracked.
Wow. I was wondering what he has been doing since Amy passed on. From The Libertines and now a virologist?
Tbf he knows a lot about drugs
I think I read somewhere that rhesus monkeys aren't a great test as they don't react to SARS-CoV-2 in the same was as humans, so any result is of limited use.
That's a disappointing report. It'll be interesting to hear how the development team themselves view those results.
It's good that there are multiple different vaccines in development.
Then why are they testing this vaccine on rhesus monkeys?
There was another comment below that tweet saying that the weak response was because they only gave a single dose. To which the obvious response was, why give just a single dose?
If a study is not getting the results you want because it’s poorly designed, that’s not a good excuse.
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you’re obviously better qualified than me so let’s hope you’re right. I’ve no medical qualifications at all but I recognise PR spin when I see it, particularly the Oxford stuff.
It is possible that no successful vaccine gets developed - sincerely hope that is not the case but it is a possibility. What we really need are developments in effective treatments for the symptoms.