SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Fecking hell I would love to see that in Coppers.
Isnt this the day numbers go up in Germany after the weekend lag?
No doubt someone will be posting a link to it later implying/claiming a 'second wave is coming'.
No doubt someone will be posting a link to it later implying/claiming a 'second wave is coming'.
An interesting review of a small autopsy case reports study....
6 pints in and people will be firing each other through walls.
I saw that. Not ideal but the kind of thing you should do anyway. I’m scrupulous about closing to flush after seeing a video years ago where they put fluorescent dye in the bathroom jacks as an experiment. Fecking stuff got everywhere. Including all over the toothbrushes. Bleurgh.
It’s also not a huge surprise that someone who is seriously unwell might shite the virus. Anyone who is that sick should be nowhere near other people anyway. What we don’t know is if the same is true for mild or asymptomatic cases. Hopefully not.
True, even in the work here with very sick people, it seemed like they had to work pretty hard to get some viable virus developing. However, if a tiny risk can encourage people not to splash toilet water all over the place, then I'm absolutely here to fearmonger about it.
As our government keeps telling us.
We are definitely world leaders in the fight against the Corona Virus.
We all must believe that don't we ???
Anyone that doesn’t close the toilet lid before flushing, needs shooting.
At least care homes are coming down and ONS are showing data throughout regularly. Italy data stops at 31st of March showing 11k excess deaths with 13k official.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gher-than-reported-stats-office-idUSKBN22G1WM
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
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Doubts raised over Oxford coronavirus vaccine after ALL of the monkeys that took part in the trial are found to have contracted the disease
- All six rhesus monkeys given the vaccine still became infected with Covid-19
- There were also warnings that they may have been able to spread the virus
- Oxford University vaccine has already been steam-rolled into human trials
- A professor from Imperial trial warned vaccine unlikely to be ready before 2021
At least care homes are coming down and ONS are showing data throughout regularly. Italy data stops at 31st of March showing 11k excess deaths with 13k official.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gher-than-reported-stats-office-idUSKBN22G1WM
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
The data shows that the peak in care home deaths was about 10 days after the peak in hospitals. It would be interesting to know if that was an identifiable cause (shared agency staff between hospitals/care homes, elderly patients being sent back to care homes having unknowingly contracted the virus in hospital, something else?)
My 81 year old grandad beat it at home.
My 75 year old, life long smoker, overweight, type 2 diabetic, grandmother was hospitalized, but her two recent tests came back negative.
Nearly outta the woods.
My 75 year old, life long smoker, overweight, type 2 diabetic, grandmother was hospitalized, but her two recent tests came back negative.
Nearly outta the woods.
Good for them, they must be toughies.
There's currently 30+ kids playing football that I can see from my window. There were 100+ of younger children in the park mostly with their parents. All mixing and playing with each other. Countless more groups of teenagers riding around on bikes or sitting about. All then going back to their families later, going into supermarkets, meeting other friends, etc.
Are the people who are so worried about schools being open actually being serious or living in some kind of delusion where no one's been outside for months? The only significant difference I can see it could possibly make is that it'll free up a lot of parents and mean a lot of struggling families can actually cope a lot easier. it will also stop thousands of poor people losing their jobs when shops inevitably reopen next month.
If someone has some kind of data that tells me otherwise please show me but it seems like a ridiculous thing to be bitching about to me. I would have thought the focus now should be purely on how to continue protecting the most at risk people going forwards, without completely taking their lives away from them. Especting kids to ever be able to go into school without any of them ever being ill is like closing all the roads then saying you wont re-open them until you can guarantee no one will ever crash their car again
Are the people who are so worried about schools being open actually being serious or living in some kind of delusion where no one's been outside for months? The only significant difference I can see it could possibly make is that it'll free up a lot of parents and mean a lot of struggling families can actually cope a lot easier. it will also stop thousands of poor people losing their jobs when shops inevitably reopen next month.
If someone has some kind of data that tells me otherwise please show me but it seems like a ridiculous thing to be bitching about to me. I would have thought the focus now should be purely on how to continue protecting the most at risk people going forwards, without completely taking their lives away from them. Especting kids to ever be able to go into school without any of them ever being ill is like closing all the roads then saying you wont re-open them until you can guarantee no one will ever crash their car again
why are people still allowed to post daily mail articles on this website? Should be a complete ban.
Wonder if we’ll see the PM anytime soon? What a lazy prick he is.
What would you suggest?
https://civilservice.blog.gov.uk/2019/07/08/please-dont-call-me-bame-or-bme/
Good blog post about it. The problem with the term BAME is that barely anyone knows what it stands for. Just be straight up.
There's been plenty of articles shared by people that have addressed how you're much more like to spread this in contained areas with prolonged exposure.
Playing in the park in the open for a bit isn't comparable to a school day. I find the argument of 'well people are breaking the rules anyway' as a terrible one to support opening schools.
Plus lumping such a big group of diverse people seems strange and even lazy. Even within the ethnicities you have more groups which are different to the others.
As well as the much higher risk of transmission indoors, the other important difference between kids mingling in school and mingling in the park is that school re-opening puts employees of the state (teachers) in a situation with a reasonable chance of getting very sick. And some of them will probably die. Which is a big deal when you could argue that finishing this school year at home won’t do the kids much harm at all.
In this context it works fine. We’re talking about the increased mortality in black and Asian (Uk meaning of the word) people from this virus. Considering “Asian” can mean different things in the US vs Uk it makes sense to use a description that is at least consistent in different parts of the world.
I've yet to see any actual scientific evidence that it's a considerable risk, and nothing to suggest it comes close to outweighing the problems with not opening them. If you have anything that tells me otherwise please show me as I'm actually quite open to finding out more one way or the other. All the "articles" I've seen are just baseless assumptions or are using deliberately misleading information.
Again "this" isn't comparable to "that" isn't an argument unless you've got something impartial that backs it up. 100 kids playing in a confined area, constantly coming and going (meaning you're actually talking about multiple hundreds, 100+ parents standing there with them is obviously comparable on some level. None of these people are expert doctors or scientists who've come up with some detailed risk analysis as to why this is not a problem but a regulated and controlled classroom is. I find it completely bonkers. It's an argument based on fear and paranoia, and people who just want a stick to beat the government with.
People will always break the rules and that's not really the point. The point is what people's idea of what a "safe" situation to send a kid back to school actually is. I've seen a lot of people say it isn't a safe situation, but none of them tell me what a safe situation would be that is actually even remotely realistic...and none of them explain to me how just not opening them as a result is going to work in anyone's favour.
But you can work on minimising obvious risks. For a start, they aren't sending al kids back to school. I wouldn't expect any teacher in any at risk category to be expected to go into a school. There isn't even any need for them too at this point.
Outdoors and indoors does make a difference, but you can regulate how many people are in a classroom and how long for, and how close they are to each other. It's not exactly rocket science. You can't regulate hundreds of children playing in a sand pit with half the parents in there with them. You can kick them out of the park if you want but I'm not even sure what that achieves.
The point I'm getting at here is there is NO situation where it's possible to open schools and there be absolutely no increased risk of anything. There wont be at any point in the forseable future and possibly ever again. It is like trying to eliminate anyone at school ever spreading the cold or flu ever again. So someone needs to come up with a compromise and whining about it while offering no middle ground is not going to help anyone or result in anything other than open conflict, because keeping them closed is simply not an option, and offering completely unrealistic arguments just means the government will ignore it and open them as planned.
It might not do SOME kids much harm from an education point of view to keep the schools closed until after the summer holidays, but what would then be the solution for all the people living in poverty who need to work and support their children during this time, given that businesses are starting to go back to operating normally even now? Once you're after the summer holidays a lot of these people wont be on furlough or have near the same level of support as now (which a lot of them are finding a huge struggle as it is, based on demands for things lie food banks). Last time there were reliable figures you're talking about literally millions of families. Schools are a very important factor in all this. And Pogue you know full well that circumstances like this have a MASSIVE effect on a child.
I also missed 2 months of school around this time when I was 15 due to my mum being very ill and I can tell you it was quite a big problem. Not so much education wise maybe as I managed to just about blag my way through, but certainly from a social and development point of view.
The mindset really does need to change at some point as it feels to me like people are still living in a fantasy world where the virus is just going to go away. That's been off the table since before we were even in lockdown. The arguments people are putting forwards for why you can't open a school are all argument that will still apply in a month's time, two months time, six months time. At this point it's ideas and solutions that are needed, not just repeating the same stuff over and over.
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Really hope not. But if you have, then my very best wishes for a speedy recovery.
Without getting into a lot of the detail of what you’re saying one massive reason why the UK might not be ready to open schools again this term is because this epidemic is still absolutely raging in your country. Plus your ability to test and track community spread seems to be a good bit behind most of the rest of the world.
With a bit of luck things will be very different in September. A lot can change for the better in a couple of months, even though we all know a treatment or vaccine won’t be available in that timeframe.
EDIT: Should also add, I’m sorry to hear about your shitty experience aged 15. But I’m sure you’d agree that missing two months of school while all your peers were still going is a hell of a lot tougher than it would be for kids all missing out on school at the same time.
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Until there's comprehensive tracking and tracing it's absolutely pointless opening schools right now, and even before September. The government are showing quite well that they're not hitting their own measures fully on testing yet, and even struggling to get it right in the healthcare sector. Until that's sorted then there is no way schools can even consider opening. Currently social distancing is the only protective measure against covid19 and realistically in schools it's extremely difficult to observe that.
The unions have set out their tests for what a safe situation is and it's largely them wanting similar measures to other countries such as Denmark and to start under a comparable infection situ. Nothing unreasonable.
Have you seen any evidence to say they aren't a risk? And what evidence is there that its outweighed by other issues? Bit of a bold claim.
The burden is very clearly on the government when it comes to workplace law here, as it is on any employer. Parents not following government guidance in their own time has no impact on the responsibilities of the government to teaching staff and the children themselves whilst under school care. It's only relevant if those same parents then complain about schools safety.
Not sure if I'll be going back un yet when schools return, I work across 4 schools as a it techie.
My boss & colleague are both on the vulnerable list. I've not been in since lockdown. My boss has been in a few times. I've been mainly doing website stuff from home. Certainly kept me busy.
They are looking to open to year 1-6 on the 2nd and Nursery/Reception from 10th.
My main concern is getting teacher devices thrown at me to resolve, 2months off is more than enough time for half of them to have more problems than Covid cases. Do I just hand gel 400 times a day and bring back the sleepless ezcema raging nights.
My boss & colleague are both on the vulnerable list. I've not been in since lockdown. My boss has been in a few times. I've been mainly doing website stuff from home. Certainly kept me busy.
They are looking to open to year 1-6 on the 2nd and Nursery/Reception from 10th.
My main concern is getting teacher devices thrown at me to resolve, 2months off is more than enough time for half of them to have more problems than Covid cases. Do I just hand gel 400 times a day and bring back the sleepless ezcema raging nights.
O'Keeffe's working hands is a saviour for that problem.
Schools are opening along a similar timeframe to other countries in terms of the pandemic and how "raging" it is, so I don't get that argument. They've been given nearly a month to prepare and if the infection rate doesn't follow the pattern expected they would put the date back. It is raging at a point where based on figures and the percentage of people who are in hospital or self isolating, I would need to go out and bump into 1,000 people in order for on average 1 of them to have the virus. If we're talking about up to 30% of the population having been infected at some point, that's not what I would exactly call raging.
We are actually testing at a higher rate than a majority of countries at this point. We were certainly criminally slow off the mark with that but the problem now is you are getting slightly skewed figures in terms of case numbers...we're testing 3-4 times as many people as during the peak of the virus and yet the confirmed case numbers are coming down. That tells you straight away you can't just look at the numbers on their own as a reliable basis. It does though tell you that testing resources are more and more available which is an extremely key factor to something like opening schools.
Is there any evidence where they have re-opened schools as to how much of a risk it is and how much difference it makes? I'd be interested to see as I've not seen anything either way other than conjecture and tabloid level rubbish. I've only seen evidence that in the past with other diseases it's had little effect either way, and even then I'm not sure how extensive or reliable that is or how it translates to corona virus. Admittedly I'm not going to scour through 900 pages of this thread to see if anything has been posted that I've missed.
And again. I have no idea what people seem to think the plan is at this point. I keep saying it and I'm still yet to see an answer. We went into lockdown to help the NHS cope. The mantra around containing or basically eliminating the virus had figures of around 20,000 deaths attached to it in order for it to be succesful...we're on our way to it being over 100,000, and possibly much higher depending on how severe the likely second wave will be. So anything based on this plan is already well past the point of being written off, and was weeks before we even went into lockdown. It's beyond even being an argument. The question anyone who still thinks that was the best course of action should be asking is why didn't go into lockdown weeks earlier or sort out our testing facilities months sooner...and it's all an irrelevance in terms of how to move forwards. At this point people are standing knee deep in water arguing that if we just don't open any doors ever again the flood water wont come in, instead of trying to figure out how to best deal with the fact it already has.
On the last point. I certainly agree it's a different situation when it affects all kids...but it's a different situation for SOME of them. For others who are stuck at home with parents who can barely afford to feed them and start seeing them as a burden it is a much worse situation. https://twitter.com/NSPCCLearning - try speaking to these guys and see what they think of the effect the situation is having on children and particularly on not so well off families. Or just read through some of their twitter timeline. It's a quite serious problem. There are 4 miillion+ people in this country who were living in absolute poverty BEFORE the pandemic. Most of them families. If you have people losing jobs and income because they are being asked to go to work but aren't able to send their kids to school, it becomes a potentially massive disaster. The problem with doing nothing until after the summer break, is you will have the same people putting the same obstacles in the way at that point. it is an inevitability because anxiety is a natural human trait. It's a harsh thing to accept but there is a much bigger and more complicated picture at this stage than just measuring every risk against 1 factor.
Honestly I'm suprised how many leftists there are who are happy to pin themselves to arguments that are completly out of touch with or ignorant of the situation most working class people are in. Not aimed particularly at you but the general attitude from the leftie internet dwellers is more tunnel visioned than most brexit voters views on immigration.
Also I apologise for the long posts. I have no idea how to talk about this subject without writing essays.
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Won't the severity of a second wave be strongly related to the length/quality of the first lockdown?
E.g. if 10 cases grow exponentially for a week before being traced, a second lockdown might not be required. But if 1,000 cases grow exponentially for a week, it's a significantly different problem.
Pick for Britain
They've only gone and pedestrianised the Curry Mile! Never thought I'd see the day.
I'll post a pic when I get back home.
I'll post a pic when I get back home.
nature is healing, we are the virus
Schools is tricky
Essentially there's Berlin data which suggests that kids can have comparable high viral loads
https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf
This was echo'd by CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e4.htm
"persons with asymptomatic and mild disease, including children, are likely playing a role in transmission and spread of COVID-19 in the community "
There's a good summary of the data regarding covid and children here
https://www.businessinsider.com/can...ronavirus-to-others-evidence-2020-5?r=US&IR=T
Incidentally the often-cited study from Vo, Italy that is being used to support re-opening of schools hasn't yet been peer reviewed
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1
Infectivity is difficult to measure and how many adults have become infected in the community as a result of infective kids (as opposed to other adults) is something I'm not sure will be the easiest thing to study. PMIS seems to be rare with cases of about 100 in the UK (higher in the states), deaths in single digits so far, unsure about the mortality data from states.
Basically issue is about kids passing it to each other, which they likely will as they're kids despite the measures in places, now the issue comes in how likely is it that they'll pass it onto their teachers and who they'll pass it onto (given infectious asymptomatic period of disease) and if they'll suffer from the disease and how much they'll suffer from it.
Obviously a lot of social implications of not reopening schools needs to be taken into account. The BMA in the face of scientific uncertainty has packed teacher's unions that are skeptical of re-opening even though editorials in the BMJ have said we should re-open including opinions from many others including infectious disease doctors.
Provided that now that mass testing is available to everyone over the age of 5, if we could get a mass track and trace system in place and if we can have a quick turnaround in results (currently a lot of regional variation, median time of result around 48 hours but a lot of docs, patients reporting longer time depending on where they are)
What I find astonishing is anybody thinking that we absolutely must open schools and vociferously disparage those (including teachers) who express reservation. Most healthcare workers childcare has been a nightmare and juggling that with work.
One of the more nefarious things now is any criticism of government policy by doctor and healthcare workers is being disparaged as political bias. Note how guido fawkes and other papers are targeting doctors who appeared in PPE documentaries as if they were members of some banned rebel group and their opinions disregarded just because they may have been in some form of left-wing activism or loose association with the labour party. I've seen such criticism regurgitated on LBC, talk radio, daily mail
When in actual fact a lot of what doctors are suggesting - border control, quarantine, checks, lockdown goes against their political beliefs.
And if you dare mention risks or nuance with decision making or question government in any way we're getting shouted down as unrealistic.
Essentially there's Berlin data which suggests that kids can have comparable high viral loads
https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf
This was echo'd by CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e4.htm
"persons with asymptomatic and mild disease, including children, are likely playing a role in transmission and spread of COVID-19 in the community "
There's a good summary of the data regarding covid and children here
https://www.businessinsider.com/can...ronavirus-to-others-evidence-2020-5?r=US&IR=T
Incidentally the often-cited study from Vo, Italy that is being used to support re-opening of schools hasn't yet been peer reviewed
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1
Infectivity is difficult to measure and how many adults have become infected in the community as a result of infective kids (as opposed to other adults) is something I'm not sure will be the easiest thing to study. PMIS seems to be rare with cases of about 100 in the UK (higher in the states), deaths in single digits so far, unsure about the mortality data from states.
Basically issue is about kids passing it to each other, which they likely will as they're kids despite the measures in places, now the issue comes in how likely is it that they'll pass it onto their teachers and who they'll pass it onto (given infectious asymptomatic period of disease) and if they'll suffer from the disease and how much they'll suffer from it.
Obviously a lot of social implications of not reopening schools needs to be taken into account. The BMA in the face of scientific uncertainty has packed teacher's unions that are skeptical of re-opening even though editorials in the BMJ have said we should re-open including opinions from many others including infectious disease doctors.
Provided that now that mass testing is available to everyone over the age of 5, if we could get a mass track and trace system in place and if we can have a quick turnaround in results (currently a lot of regional variation, median time of result around 48 hours but a lot of docs, patients reporting longer time depending on where they are)
What I find astonishing is anybody thinking that we absolutely must open schools and vociferously disparage those (including teachers) who express reservation. Most healthcare workers childcare has been a nightmare and juggling that with work.
One of the more nefarious things now is any criticism of government policy by doctor and healthcare workers is being disparaged as political bias. Note how guido fawkes and other papers are targeting doctors who appeared in PPE documentaries as if they were members of some banned rebel group and their opinions disregarded just because they may have been in some form of left-wing activism or loose association with the labour party. I've seen such criticism regurgitated on LBC, talk radio, daily mail
When in actual fact a lot of what doctors are suggesting - border control, quarantine, checks, lockdown goes against their political beliefs.
And if you dare mention risks or nuance with decision making or question government in any way we're getting shouted down as unrealistic.