At least until widespread testing drops below 3% positive (still much higher than the levels South Korea, Australia and NZ considered safe).
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
At least until widespread testing drops below 3% positive (still much higher than the levels South Korea, Australia and NZ considered safe).
Depends what you want to achieve. If its going from 0 deaths per day, as we have had recently, to doubling the amount of infections at a rate not seen since March, then I'd say its all been a great success. Wonder how we got to 0 deaths per day?
They did, but its spreading again. Things are closing again and they just had their highest ever daily case figures.
By now there must some more evidence on what causes transmission. HK was all but back to normal with restaurants and bars back open. Italy is also back to normal but at this time of year everybody lives their lives outdoors, and so far no rise in cases.
Holland already had the virus though, it wasn’t imported.
Have you ever “really” had zero deaths though? The increased mortality and care home data coming out of Holland says you guys are thousands short on your numbers.
I dont understand how this relates to the staying closed "forever" thing? Once Holland gets it completely under control then Those measures I mentioned can come into play. It takes roughly 5-6 weeks for a hard lockdown to really lower the transmission rates, probably even shorter a time frame depending on the target needed.
One word here, Australia. There are no guarantees even if they get cases to zero, and European borders can’t work like your suggestion.
And after a 5-6 week hard lockdown, it takes roughly 6 weeks for numbers to start climbing again as we are seeing in lots of places.
It’s just not as simple as many are making out.
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Ignore function makes this thread much better.
6 + 6 = 12. Those 12 weeks can make an enormous difference in a country’s ability to test, track and trace. Which is crucial when it comes to managing the inevitable future outbreaks. I know for a fact that Ireland would have been absolutely screwed without that early, hard lockdown.
We were short of PPE, tests took several days to report and our contact tracing was primitive as hell. Now we have same day testing, oodles of PPE and a best in class contact tracing app. All of which means we can hopefully manage future outbreaks regionally/locally without crippling the whole country again. Plus businesses have had the breathing space necessary to make the changes required to operate safely while the virus is still in our community. Squashing the curve was always about buying time. Obviously it couldn’t change the area under the curve but when the disease is capable of exponential growth, time is one of the most precious resources of all.
Emphasis on "had". Hong Kong dealt with the initial crisis quite successfully, we screened everyone coming back from overseas, we sent every SARS CoV-2 positive person (including asymptomatic carrier) to negative pressure wards, we adopted working and studying from home, we prohibited gatherings, and most importantly everyone was self-disciplinary to wear a mask. The number of cases was kept at a very low level. But then the measures were loosened and people became tired of following the rules, and we are facing an unprecedented crisis.
What does that have to with Stan being angry at the Dutch government for opening again?
Don't know if the right topic, but I'm going to Düsseldorf for the weekend (Friday - Sunday). Can someone who lives in Germany give me some pointers? Are there special regulations in bars and restaurants? Do they close at certain hours? Regulations in Musea and public places?
Thanks!
Thanks!
I have him on ignore. I was just wading in to point out that the end goal of a lockdown doesn’t have to be complete eradication. It’s about keeping caseload manageable while preparing to better deal with future outbreaks.
I agree with you Pogue, Stan was angry that Holland opened again and now casing are rising. There was a suggestion from another that they could close and get case numbers close to zero and then test everyone entering the country.
Fact is, that simply cannot work long term especially in mainland Europe. And even getting cases to Australia levels guarantees nothing other than as you say... invaluable time. Australia should now really be on the UK Red List, mental really considering the situation just a few weeks back.
Ok, yeah. Agreed. I’m getting really frustrated with Europeans saying we should emulate the Aus/NZ approach. There’s a bunch of clinicians in Ireland whose opinions I respect that keep banging this drum but I just don’t see how it could work in somewhere as interconnected as a European country. Even if we are an island.
Ditto, and I haven’t seen anyone suggest how it could be achieved. It’ll be something akin to locking states off from each other long term in the US.
Australia and NZ (the latter especially) always had an advantage in this respect.
Id say that when 3 people died in the weekly report that theres an outside chance that there were zero reported deaths on some days. Now the confirmed cases has doubled in the last week.
First there are no regulations for Germany, just for the federal states. In case of Düsseldorf that would be North-Rhine Westphalia.
Most important point is, by law you are required to self quarantine for 14 days after arrival, IF you are from a designated corona risk area, luckily for you Belgium is not on it. I would recommend to ask a contact person in Germany about how it is handled, either the hotel or the person you are staying with.
In general, wear a mask in every public space indoors, and even outside when you are not able to social distance.
Edit: Maybe @do.ob knows more, I think he is from North-Rhine Westphalia.
Not sure if already linked - the ONS published their latest update on deaths in England and Wales (covering up to the 10th July).
The number of deaths is continuing to decline - to around 50/day - which is still grim, but a massive improvement on 1200/day back in April.
The overall number of deaths has been below the 5-year average now for 3 weeks - I guess thanks to people staying at home, being more cautious around others in general.
There's still a weirdly high number of (non-covid) deaths at home. Whether this is people doing that dodgy DIY project while stuck at home, or not going to hospital when they really should, I don't know.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending10july2020
The number of deaths is continuing to decline - to around 50/day - which is still grim, but a massive improvement on 1200/day back in April.
The overall number of deaths has been below the 5-year average now for 3 weeks - I guess thanks to people staying at home, being more cautious around others in general.
There's still a weirdly high number of (non-covid) deaths at home. Whether this is people doing that dodgy DIY project while stuck at home, or not going to hospital when they really should, I don't know.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending10july2020
I think I have walked into something and got the wrong end of the stick
US paying 2 billion to that German company about 100 million doses of vaccine (and getting a deal for another 500m other). They also financed Moderna, so I think they will stockpile those vaccines. And I believe they have a dead for the Oxford vaccine too (these three are the most promising Western vaccines).
I think right now it is pretty shit to be in the US with regard to Covid, but it will likely be the place to be next year. Buying their way out of this mess.
I think right now it is pretty shit to be in the US with regard to Covid, but it will likely be the place to be next year. Buying their way out of this mess.
All those costs will be passed on to the insurers, who will pass them on to the US citizens. And they will be absolutely screwed by the pharma companies over the price of the vaccines. Same way they pay over the odds for all of their healthcare.
UK 79 deaths and 560 cases
From what I saw, it is the government who is buying them, not hospitals/insurers etc.
I actually think that the vaccine is gonna be for free. At the end of the day, both GOP and Dems need the economy to be fully open, and that is tough to happen without mass vaccination.
I know that in this forum it is fun and awesome to shit in the US, but there is no way the vaccine is gonna cost (or cost a lot). People even know seem to not fully believe the virus, no way many of them are gonna pay over the odds for the vaccine. And a mass vaccination is needed for it to have any success (especially with the vaccine probably being only 50% effective).
This is what I found online regarding restrictions when entering the country, to be safe I would confirm with your hotel though:
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...072020_17_45Uhr_en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
In general people have become quite relaxed about the virus.
As a rule of thumb put on a mask in enclosed public spaces, especially trains. Toddlers are exempt, if you're planning to bring any.
Some places may ask you to write down contact info for potential tracing.
As for restaurants/pubs: you basically put on a mask every time you're on the move, but tables are supposed to be a safe distance from each other, so you can take it off once you're at your seat. There is no curfew for bars you're can get as drunk as before, but if you're trying to visit a club it will probably be closed.
A lot of places (super markets especially) used to ask people to pay cashless, but at the moment that doesn't seem to be a thing anymore.
Some places may require you to make an appointment/reservation to handle their Corona-adjusted capacity limits, so to be safe I would check the website of museums or other places you want to visit, before you show up.
Here's a link to the goverment's Corona warning app:
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/corona-warn-app/corona-warn-app-englisch
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Thanks mate, helps a lot. Some of our friends are worried to go because it wouldn't be fun with all the restrictions, but it seems it's exactly the same rules as in Belgium.
You're welcome. I would expect most EU countries to be more or less in line. They all face the same balancing act of safety vs freedom/economy.
The limit on random public gatherings is currently 10 people, with some exceptions to people form the same household. So depending on how large your group is that could be a problem.
If them getting the vaccine in any way impinges on Europe's ability to vaccinate it's own people they will just block the export, same as the US would (and has tried to) do to us.
Only 4, no worries
We just found out about 5 minutes ago, that my friend who's coming along his mothers direct colleague has tested positive this weekend. She was going to babysit on his daughter next weekend when we are in Düsseldorf. Looks like that's a no-go.
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Oxford Vaccine RCT published in Lancet on Monday.
Full link to paper below.
Safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a preliminary report of a phase 1/2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial
Interpretation
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased antibody responses. These results, together with the induction of both humoral and cellular immune responses, support large-scale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase 3 programme.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext
Full link to paper below.
Safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a preliminary report of a phase 1/2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial
- Pedro M Folegatti, MSc *
- Katie J Ewer, PhD *
- Parvinder K Aley, PhD
- Brian Angus, MD
- Prof Stephan Becker, PhD
- Sandra Belij-Rammerstorfer, PhD
Interpretation
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased antibody responses. These results, together with the induction of both humoral and cellular immune responses, support large-scale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase 3 programme.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext
Depends on which company does it first. I think that Europe might be more generous on sharing it than the US.
Nice thing is that the big three (Oxford, Moderna and that German company) seem all to be doing very well, so hopefully all three of them are successful. They are made using different technology so if all are able to scale, by the end of spring most of the Western world is gonna get vaccinated. I hope that all these three companies will allocate a large dose of vaccines for Africa/South America either for free or cheaply (Us is paying 20 dollars for a vaccine, I am not sure that this is affordable for many countries where the government needs to purchase tens of millions of vaccines, especially considering the economical hit most countries have endured).
News from China and Russia seem to be quite good too, but it is hard to know if those are news or propaganda.
It doesn't mean anything particularly but my son's friend in LA just caught Covid19 and only had flu lie symptoms for a couple of days and not much more.
Oh boy, Doutzen Kroes is now a virologist as well. She has a lot of questions after doing "hours of research" like, Why doesn't anyone tell us to eat vitamins and nutritious foods to combat covid!
My main question is, how does she know about nutrition, I doubt she's ever actually eaten anything in her life.
I'd still marry her.
It's almost as if this is something that we are taught from a young age and is recommended regardless of if there is a global pandemic going on. I certainly can't remember being told it was ok for me to only eat ice cream unless there is a killer virus doing the rounds.
Why haven't they told us that putting your genitals into boiling water isn't a cure for Covid?
Anyone that claims they've done hours of research, and aren't in a medical or science field, generally tend to 'research' areas which only support their agenda. You can add this to any of the conspiracy theorists approach, and usually is done as a method to avoid the burden of proof.
The news of USA securing advanced doses - I feel like that's a good thing. I would assume if the US is vaccinated, they'd donate/sell the excess vaccines that work. Getting advanced manufacturing is important to get the supply chains going and a lot of countries don't have the money for that. It is good that USA/UK have committed money to it.
As of now, the US has secured at least like 800m doses -- 300m from AstraZeneca, 500m from Pfizer.
Research by YouTube videos is the new primary literature don't you know?