SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

There's also been preschools open since June without any reports of significant outbreaks. My own son's preschool has been at essentially full attendance since the start of July, so I assume that's a similar situation elsewhere. If kids being disgusting germ delivery devices were a significant driver, we'd see it in preschools at least as much as in primary schools.

Even more so in pre-schoolers, right? Primary school kids are varying degrees of competent when it comes to basic stuff like hand washing, covering their cough and going to the toilet on their own. Pre-school staff are basically ankle deep in bodily fluids all day.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

There's also been preschools open since June without any reports of significant outbreaks. My own son's preschool has been at essentially full attendance since the start of July, so I assume that's a similar situation elsewhere. If kids being disgusting germ delivery devices were a significant driver, we'd see it in preschools at least as much as in primary schools.

Absolutely.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

You need to say something Reg. Not just make Trumpesque statements of not much at all.

Called me out and rightfully so @UnrelatedPsuedo. I was annoyed about how inconsistent the data is and how the vast majority of people believe that the official stats tells the full story, especially when so many countries are absolutely miles off.
I incorrectly just starting making daft assumptions on the likes of Turkey, like a wanker. Fener was bang on to mock me for it.

 

[lynchie]

Even more so in pre-schoolers, right? Primary school kids are varying degrees of competent when it comes to basic stuff like hand washing, covering their cough and going to the toilet on their own. Pre-school staff are basically ankle deep in bodily fluids all day.

Definitely. I've actually been impressed by how well the kids have taken on board the new rules, but they're still basically disgusting. At least at primary schools, beyond reception, they spend a fair bit of time sat at tables doing work, rather than running around sharing toys and hugging eachother.

 

[Wolverine]

For anyone who noticed/cares, I just got my test results back. Negative. Am secretly gutted. Symptoms were very mild and had been patting myself on the back for having such a kick ass immune system.

I think I've been gutted too the couple of times I had negative tests (1 for man-flu, 2 for household contact with symptoms)
I'd be grateful too in a "get it over and done with" with getting a mild version of the disease out of the way pre-vaccine.

I remember though recently watching a sort of anti-anti-vaxxer documentary with somebody who suffered measles who was suffering from (the incredibly rare) subacute sclerosing panencephalitis years after. Part of me weirdly just worries (probably without much merit) that there might be some weird debilitating nastiness from covid (either cadiac or neuro) that presents in a similar way after a convalescent period that we haven't seen/observed yet because mass infections are still only just recently happening relatively. And that's not even counting risks of acute infection, being a long tail covid sufferer. Its a tough one but on balance I think I'm tilting towards grateful for not having it still.

 

[Ecstatic]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

That France aren't red-listed yet and that no "traffic light system" has ever been unveiled by UK government is worrying, as are the reports that "ministers will discuss France today". What the feck do ministers have to do with it? There's either a system, or there isn't.

Based on the link, it seems the death toll for the UK should be more around 65,000.

Also, do you believe the situation is worse in France?

 

[freeurmind]

Really starting to think this doesn't go away without everyone going for an elimination strategy. Shut all borders including to returning travellers and lock it all down. What we are currently doing clearly isn't working.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Really starting to think this doesn't go away without everyone going for an elimination strategy. Shut all borders including to returning travellers and lock it all down. What we are currently doing clearly isn't working.

No chance it's working with "elimination" WorldWide, countries would literally starve to death.

Learning to live with it was always the only solution.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

Really starting to think this doesn't go away without everyone going for an elimination strategy. Shut all borders including to returning travellers and lock it all down. What we are currently doing clearly isn't working.

you can't completely shut all borders, for example, the UK couldn't feed itself without imports.

Plus for how long? look at New Zealand it completely shut down and the moment it started to slightly open it got cases again.

Personly I think while what the country is doing isn't working, I don't there is an answer, only wrong answer with different dire consequences

 

[freeurmind]

No chance it's working with "elimination" WorldWide, countries would literally starve to death.

Learning to live with it was always the only solution.

I don't know enough about supply chains to know how they could be kept going if every country closed borders except for goods.
I do know that we're at 700,000 deaths worldwide with infection rates going up in alot of places.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

No chance it's working with "elimination" WorldWide, countries would literally starve to death.

Learning to live with it was always the only solution.

I don’t think it was always the only solution. I read an interesting point from a PH physician the other day. People are talking about this being a shot across the bows to make sure we’re prepared for a really deadly virus. They pointed out that this virus already is the worst case scenario. If the CFR was 30% then elimination would have been the only option and every country would have adopted that same strategy. We would have had much longer, more stringent lockdown but we would all be very close to getting back to normal life by now. Which is surely preferable to our current situation?

The fact that this virus wasn’t deadly enough for everyone to follow that path - bearing in mind the huge political pressure to keep lockdown as short as possible - is what has screwed us. Living with the virus is the only option now and that’s potentially just as shit a situation for NZ, long-term, as it is for the rest of the world but humanity did have a chance to eradicate the virus completely and fecked it. Which is a crying shame. Because life with the virus in ongoing circulation looks like being a bit of a nightmare for loads of people.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I don’t think it was always the only solution. I read an interesting point from a PH physician the other day. People are talking about this being a shot across the bows to make sure we’re prepared for a really deadly virus. They pointed out that this virus already is the worst case scenario. If the CFR was 30% then elimination would have been the only option and every country would have adopted that same strategy. We would have had much longer, more stringent lockdown but we would all be very close to getting back to normal life by now. Which is surely preferable to our current situation?

6 months of lockdown = starvation though Pogue doesn't it? Especially so for poorer countries. And the financial fallout would cripple economies for decades.

 

[lynchie]

Based on the link, it seems the death toll for the UK should be more around 65,000.

Also, do you believe the situation is worse in France?

If you take the excess deaths number directly, the death toll in the UK has been negative for the last couple of months.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

If you take the excess deaths number directly, the death toll in the UK has been negative for the last couple of months.

Negative for a lot of places in last couple of months. Likely because flu numbers were so low this year so the usual flu deaths in the elderly were. Covid has instead taken those so numbers are balancing themselves out somewhat.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Based on the link, it seems the death toll for the UK should be more around 65,000.

Also, do you believe the situation is worse in France?

Not sure what you mean? France has more cases now and if Belgium, Spain, Sweden and Portugal were red-listed, France should be also.
My opinion is that the red-list threshold should be set higher at <40 cases /100,000.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

6 months of lockdown = starvation though Pogue doesn't it? Especially so for poorer countries. And the financial fallout would cripple economies for decades.

Lockdown could involve a way to keep the supply chains open. Even with the sort of relatively mild, relatively short ockdown we saw in most European countries the numbers were brought down dramatically. That’s with airports and ports all fully open for business. It’s not hard to imagine a more stringent, longer lockdown eradicating the virus while still keeping basic food supplies moving. Provided every country adopted the same strategy. Which we would have to do if a much more lethal virus starts spreading. We wouldn’t have any other choice.

As for the economy; getting life fully back to normal before the end of 2020 - with no virus circulating and every business able to run in the same way they did pre-covid - would be an infinitely better long-term outcome than the current shit show. That really would cause the V shaped recovery we initially hoped for, not the U shaped one we’re now going to get.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Lockdown could involve a way to keep the supply chains open. Even with the sort of relatively mild, relatively lockdown we saw in most European countries the numbers were brought down dramatically. That’s with airports and ports all fully open for business. Not hard to imagine a more stringent, longer lockdown eradicating the virus while still keeping basic food supplies moving. Provided every country adopted the same strategy. Which we would have to if a much more lethal virus starts spreading.

As for the economy, getting life fully back to normal before the end of 2020, with no virus circulating and every business able to run as usual would be an infinitely better long-term outcome than the current shit show. That really would cause the V shaped recovery we initially hoped for, not the U shaped one we’re now going to get.

I don’t know, this came from one market and took over the World in no-time. Eradication by 6 month stringent lockdown WorldWide seems an utter pipedream that still has no guarantee to work. Just a couple still surviving has potential to rip through the World again, working when we don’t know it’s there, which is when we get/got hit hardest.
Poor Countries would literally be bankrupt, they’d be no “U” for them.

 

[Ecstatic]

If you take the excess deaths number directly, the death toll in the UK has been negative for the last couple of months.

Good news

Not sure what you mean? France has more cases now and if Belgium, Spain, Sweden and Portugal were red-listed, France should be also.
My opinion is that the red-list threshold should be set higher at <40 cases /100,000.

There are more cases because there are more tests.

The most interesting figure is the number of daily deaths and, in France, on average there was between 2 and 15 deaths per day in the last 15 days.
versus between 8 and 98 deaths per day in the last 15 days for the UK.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

There are more cases because there are more tests.

The most interesting figure is the number of daily deaths and, in France, on average there was between 2 and 15 deaths per day in the last 15 days.
versus between 8 and 98 deaths per day in the last 15 days for the UK.

same for Sweden, check it out. Hasn’t gotten them off the red list, hence my daughter hasn’t seen most of her family for 7 months.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I don’t know, this came from one market and took over the World in no-time. Eradication by 6 month stringent lockdown WorldWide seems an utter pipedream that still has no guarantee to work. Just a couple still surviving has potential to rip through the World again, working when we don’t know it’s there, which is when we get/got hit hardest.
Poor Countries would literally be bankrupt, they’d be no “U” for them.

Yeah, I agree. I don't buy that it could have been successfully eradicated on a global basis through lockdowns. How many diseases have been eradicated in human history without first spreading throughout the population?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Yeah, I agree. I don't buy that it could have been successfully eradicated on a global basis through lockdowns. How many diseases have been eradicated in human history without first spreading throughout the population?

None obviously. It’s the mere fact that 1 remaining person or surface with the virus can be 20 million confirmed cases, likely 100m+ actual cases 6 months on that makes me believe it’s a complete pipe dream.

 

[Ecstatic]

same for Sweden, check it out. Hasn’t gotten them off the red list, hence my daughter hasn’t seen most of her family for 7 months.

Sorry to hear about that. Awful for your family...

Total Covid-19 deaths per million so far:
UK - 699.75
Sweden - 566.62
France - 451.07

The increase of reported cases in a country does not necessarily mean the virus is not under control because in the 1st months of the lockdown, tests were not easily available and accessible.

 

[lynchie]

Good news



There are more cases because there are more tests.

The most interesting figure is the number of daily deaths and, in France, on average there was between 2 and 15 deaths per day in the last 15 days.
versus between 8 and 98 deaths per day in the last 15 days for the UK.

There's not been anything like 98 deaths in a day in the last 2 weeks. The UK stats, or actually just England, are a mess at the moment because they set up the methodology in a way that made sense early in the epidemic when it was out of control, but is garbage late in the epidemic.

 

[MTF]

I don’t know, this came from one market and took over the World in no-time. Eradication by 6 month stringent lockdown WorldWide seems an utter pipedream that still has no guarantee to work. Just a couple still surviving has potential to rip through the World again, working when we don’t know it’s there, which is when we get/got hit hardest.
Poor Countries would literally be bankrupt, they’d be no “U” for them.

Poor countries that aren't self-sufficient in food, of which there are many... you'd literally have to send them food for free for this to be anywhere near acceptable to them. Because if they're not doing whatever their usual role is in the global economy be it the export of other raw materials, or the export of basic manufactured goods, they'd have nothing to trade for the food. It's a total pipe dream. To risk mass starvation to eradicate a virus with 0.65% IFR is not even close to a trade-off I want to make.

I think people in developed countries who are usually so concerned about inequality, mostly haven't grasped how these measures are furthering inequality on both a national level (office workers still working/getting income, certain companies thriving while other sectors/workers out of income) and then on a global level what it will already do to poor countries that are set-up as suppliers of goods and services that mainly go to the developed countries. For an average family to be down 10% of income (just using as example given what is latest GDP decline stats) in Western Europe because of a prolonged recession is already bad, but for a family in a developing nation that could be enough to sink them below the subsistence line. And its all fine and dandy that governments in rich countries will provide that basic income even to people out of work for a prolonged time, but we know damn well from history that no one in developed countries is going to take another hike in tax rate or go further into debt to fund basic income for the rest of the world.

 

[hmchan]

Yeah, I agree. I don't buy that it could have been successfully eradicated on a global basis through lockdowns. How many diseases have been eradicated in human history without first spreading throughout the population?

It seems to me many people are confusing/abusing the term "eradication". There have been only 2 successful examples in eradication of infectious diseases in human history (both by vaccines anyway) and I don't understand why people have so much hope in eradicating this novel virus in the foreseeable future.

 

[Ecstatic]

There's not been anything like 98 deaths in a day in the last 2 weeks. The UK stats, or actually just England, are a mess at the moment because they set up the methodology in a way that made sense early in the epidemic when it was out of control, but is garbage late in the epidemic.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10C11/production/_113852686_casesdeaths0708-nc.png

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah, I agree. I don't buy that it could have been successfully eradicated on a global basis through lockdowns. How many diseases have been eradicated in human history without first spreading throughout the population?

Multiple outbreaks of Ebola, for starters. The virus hasn’t been wiped out completely but it’s been contained, many times. I mean, in terms of not just accepting the inevitability of a novel pathogen becoming endemic all over the world, we’ve already done it with another SARS virus!

I do get that this is much harder to contain than the other viruses I mention but we’ve never used PH measures as drastic as the global lockdown that flattened the initial wave. Hard not to wonder what we might have achieved with a more radical, disciplined and coordinated approach.

 

[jojojo]

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10C11/production/_113852686_casesdeaths0708-nc.png

One key bit of that image is that warning that the England stat includes deaths of anyone who tested positive for Covid at any point prior to death - potentially including people who die months after their test, and of unrelated conditions. Scotland and Wales only use deaths occurring within 28 days in their numbers.

Listening to the BBC this morning it seems PHE are about to start quoting figures for deaths within 28 days after the last positive test, and for 60 days alongside the "anytime" stat. Scotland and Wales will probably start quoting 60 day figures as well for completeness.

 

[Ecstatic]

One key bit of that image is that warning that the England stat includes deaths of anyone who tested positive for Covid at any point prior to death - potentially including people who die months after their test, and of unrelated conditions. Scotland and Wales only use deaths occurring within 28 days in their numbers.

Listening to the BBC this morning it seems PHE are about to start quoting figures for deaths within 28 days after the last positive test, and for 60 days alongside the "anytime" stat. Scotland and Wales will probably start quoting 60 day figures as well for completeness.

Thanks. Interesting but annoying for people who expect consistency and stability in the methodology used by public authorities regarding Covid.

 

[decorativeed]

The live events in Teams is a one to many presentation tool rather than an online meeting or webinar tool.

Zoom had a few issues that have been largely or wholly addressed.

https://blog.zoom.us/a-message-to-our-users/

This includes disabling attendee attention tracking that collected bio-metric/behavioral data and was felt by many to be a bit to intrusive
https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/115000538083-Attendee-attention-tracking

Good free options include Google products and with Adobe Connect and Blackboard Collaborate Ultra being paid Zoom competitors - for my money Collaborate ultra might just edge the others for educational use as it is a very clean interface and is browser based so no downloads or plugins are needed. But there is't much to pick between them all.

No, it's not. My office has been using teams for all our meetings since March. Occasionally I need to use zoom to meet with external people, as we can only use Teams in house. They both do the same thing, with slight differences. I have a lot more issues with Zoom stuttering and slowing down when someone's screen sharing than I've had on Teams for example.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

No, it's not. My office has been using teams for all our meetings since March. Occasionally I need to use zoom to meet with external people, as we can only use Teams in house. They both do the same thing, with slight differences. I have a lot more issues with Zoom stuttering and slowing down when someone's screen sharing than I've had on Teams for example.

We’re the same. Only use Zoom externally and use Team for all our in-house meetings. I also find it a bit smoother/easier to use than Zoom, especially with screen sharing.

 

[lynchie]

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10C11/production/_113852686_casesdeaths0708-nc.png

Yeah, I've seen the PHE numbers, and if you compare against the ONS stats (which are actually based on what people died from) they've become increasingly silly. Good to see from @jojojo that they've got a plan to fix it.

 

[lynchie]

No, it's not. My office has been using teams for all our meetings since March. Occasionally I need to use zoom to meet with external people, as we can only use Teams in house. They both do the same thing, with slight differences. I have a lot more issues with Zoom stuttering and slowing down when someone's screen sharing than I've had on Teams for example.

I think there's a bit of confusion there. Teams "Live Events" are one to many. I've done a few of them for webinars. But there are also Teams Meetings which are as you say similar to Zoom meetings.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Multiple outbreaks of Ebola, for starters. The virus hasn’t been wiped out completely but it’s been contained, many times. I mean, in terms of not just accepting the inevitability of a novel pathogen becoming endemic all over the world, we’ve already done it with another SARS virus!

I do get that this is much harder to contain than the other viruses I mention but we’ve never used PH measures as drastic as the global lockdown that flattened the initial wave. Hard not to wonder what we might have achieved with a more radical, disciplined and coordinated approach.

Sounds about as likely to me as eradicating AIDS in the 80s by asking the global population to go without sex for 6 months.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Multiple outbreaks of Ebola, for starters. The virus hasn’t been wiped out completely but it’s been contained, many times. I mean, in terms of not just accepting the inevitability of a novel pathogen becoming endemic all over the world, we’ve already done it with another SARS virus!

I do get that this is much harder to contain than the other viruses I mention but we’ve never used PH measures as drastic as the global lockdown that flattened the initial wave. Hard not to wonder what we might have achieved with a more radical, disciplined and coordinated approach.

Ebola is still around, and obviously it's own worst enemy in being so deadly. You make a fair point with SARS-CoV-1, but it was also much more deadly and much less contagious. Containing it within Asia was key there.

This is just something else all together and whilst I agree, closing down China completely would've given the World a chance; I simply cannot see how by mid-March we had any chance of getting rid. It was already way too wide-spread and too good at it's job.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sorry to hear about that. Awful for your family...

Total Covid-19 deaths per million so far:
UK - 699.75
Sweden - 566.62
France - 451.07

The increase of reported cases in a country does not necessarily mean the virus is not under control because in the 1st months of the lockdown, tests were not easily available and accessible.

I agree @Ecstatic, that's my frustration with the entire concept of "cases per million". It's made even worse when we know that certain countries absolutely are fudging the numbers or are utterly shit at it, yet may be declared "safe" due to these numbers.

As you posted, the UK has had worse stats than Sweden since the start, and even after that lockdown they still have worse stats. In the past 14 days we have reported 44 deaths in total, an average of 3.14 deaths per day. (the confirmed day of deaths total is actually 1 death per day average in past 14 days). So even now the UK has worse stats, even per million, and yet I'm red lighted from taking a visit home. It's utter bollocks.

If my family was in Finland or Norway, who have since day 1 had better stats than Sweden and continue to do so, it'd suck balls but I'd understand it. That aint the case though and my family are missing out on seeing my daughter grow up because of this nonsense.

 

[decorativeed]

I've been back in the office in Manchester (well, the large building I work at) twice this week. On Monday I went straight in on the train and straight back out again. Today I thought I'd have a quick look for a couple of things in the Aldi and Tesco that they haven't had in at my locals.

This involved walking through the Arndale, which has signs up everywhere saying masks must be worn. I was shocked to find myself in a minority wearing one correctly. I'd estimate only half of the people in there were wearing one at all. Of the rest it was mainly teenagers to people of about 30, who clearly thought the rule didn't apply to them, and a few of your middle-aged overweight gammon types who didn't wear a mask at all. Then there were the people wearing them as chinwarmers, or below the nose, and the amount of people I saw who pulled them down to talk... Dear god, the general public are unbelieveable. This virus is being kept in circulation and spread around by shear idiocy and selfishness.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I've been back in the office in Manchester (well, the large building I work at) twice this week. On Monday I went straight in on the train and straight back out again. Today I thought I'd have a quick look for a couple of things in the Aldi and Tesco that they haven't had in at my locals.

This involved walking through the Arndale, which has signs up everywhere saying masks must be worn. I was shocked to find myself in a minority wearing one correctly. I'd estimate only half of the people in there were wearing one at all. Of the rest it was mainly teenagers to people of about 30 clearly thought the rule didn't apply to them, and a few of your middle-aged overweight gammon types who didn't wear a mask at all. Then there were the people wearing them as chinwarmers, or below the nose, and the amount of people I saw who pulled them down to talk... Dear god, the general public are unbelieveable. This virus is being kept in circulation and spread around by shear idiocy and selfishness.

Yeah. I'd start ramping up on-the-spot fines now. People are idiots.

 

[hmchan]

Ebola is still around, and obviously it's own worst enemy in being so deadly. You make a fair point with SARS-CoV-1, but it was also much more deadly and much less contagious. Containing it within Asia was key there.

This is just something else all together and whilst I agree, closing down China completely would've given the World a chance; I simply cannot see how by mid-March we had any chance of getting rid. It was already way too wide-spread and too good at it's job.

Totally agree.

 

[redshaw]

UK 77 deaths and 1009 cases