SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

The very first reported cases were 8 months ago. Immunity could last less than a year (which is very short, as far as immunity is concerned) and not one person on the planet has recovered long enough for us to find out!

It’s to be expected that reinfections are few and far between, with only people that get exceptionally brief immunity (Nevada case was reinfected just six and a half weeks after recovering) popping up on the radar. Time will tell how long the majority are immune for. It could still end up being problematically short.

I have optimism for a number of reasons

1) only a single confirmed case of reinfection and a handful of non-confirmed/suspected cases in more than 6 months means reinfection, at least in the medium term, is much less of a concern than it was. If it was very common we would know by now.
2) Coronaviruses functionally mutate more slowly than other viruses like influenza and with others like SARS immunity lasts up to 3 years post recovering from the disease.
3) Preliminary results from vaccine trial seems to suggest the immune reaction from a vaccine, especially when 2 doses are given, is much stronger than from that resulting from infection by the actual virus
4) Double initial doses and annual boosters before winter will likely be enough to offset short term immunity if it does occur.


I'm more worried that a large scale roll out of a vaccine but a far from universal one could cause the virus to mutate due to selection pressure on the small pool of virus remaining "in the wild" in a way that stops the vaccine working well. Thankfully, we are working on so many vaccines that work in different ways this may be worrying unnecessarily.

 

[Wibble]

Vaccines are likely to arrive around the end of the year, yeah. I'm now wondering what this means in terms of eventually stalling the virus. My understanding is that it seems to be quite slow in major mutations like similar coronaviruses and despite it infecting millions there's only 6 known major strains so far.

I would have thought that a vaccine is made and tested based upon a particular strain (may be wrong), If so, would we need a few of the vaccines to work to eventually halt it?

Strain seems to be a rather vague term (or it could be my lack of understanding of the literature) but I thought at the moment there was little enough variation that a single vaccine will work. I guess that depends on what part of the virus varies and what part of the virus a particular vaccine targets.

@Tony Babangida (or anyone else who knows) - any insights for us into this question?

 

[Wibble]

I hope Dr John Campbell gets a knighthood.
With my main sources of info about the pandemic being this thread and him, I would have hung myself by now if not for his videos.

Yes. He is very good.

 

[SinNombre]

Our (Slovenia) national secretary (who is also a physician) said today that we will have a vaccine available by November and that healthcare workers and elderly will likely get it. Are we getting the Russian thing or is the legit vaccine ready to roll out?

The Russian thing may be a genuine vaccine, with the main difference that Russia and China (at least in one case) are seemingly skipping the phase 3 trial and doing it on a broader population.

One of Oxford, Pfizer or Moderna will have an approved vaccine by November. Who will produce it and who will have it is up for debate?

Getting back on track.



Shit shit shit shit shit....

I wouldn't be too worried about this unless we know if the patient generated an immune response the first time around.

The vaccines are likely to do so in 80%+ of the population.

 

[Dancfc]

I agree with most of what you’re saying, except the bolder part. The initial response has saved many lives by stopping the initial bomb of those more susceptible all getting it at once and being denied treatment. Lowering the curve was still necessary as part of a citizen in a society that cares about others and has compassion.

Not to mention that seeing everyone in my city wearing masks, washing hands and respecting people’s personal space is very welcome and we wouldn’t have arrived here without a scare. People have needed educating and reminding of personal higiene and social consciousness for a long time.

It will obviously relax and people will become accustomed to a new normal, but we would never have gotten here had there not been a scare and heightened consciousness in the community.

The hope now is, like you say, we become accustomed to this virus as a people and the threat diminishes as it becomes part of what we face year round. A vaccine could still be a very effective tool in that process though, so it would be foolish to discount its role.

Yeah the initial lockdown was very much nessesery to flatten the curve, save the health service etc but I find it insane some places are now locking down on minimal cases, especially now it's being shown clusters can be dealt with by T@T, extra precautions etc.

You have to wonder, where will this end? Can't help but worry this time next year Covid will be the least of our problems, even if effective vaccine or treatments aren't found.

 

[Dan_F]

Yeah the initial lockdown was very much nessesery to flatten the curve, save the health service etc but I find it insane some places are now locking down on minimal cases, especially now it's being shown clusters can be dealt with by T@T, extra precautions etc.

You have to wonder, where will this end? Can't help but worry this time next year Covid will be the least of our problems, even if effective vaccine or treatments aren't found.

You say “locking down”, but they aren’t really are they. You make it sound like everyone is at home and not able to leave their house. Businesses are generally open, apart from the last stage of reopening, like casinos, that only went nationwide two weeks ago.

I would much rather be in that scenario than France right now.

 

[Dancfc]

You say “locking down”, but they aren’t really are they. You make it sound like everyone is at home and not able to leave their house. Businesses are generally open, apart from the last stage of reopening, like casinos, that only went nationwide two weeks ago.

I would much rather be in that scenario than France right now.

I was thinking more the madness on some other countries/city's.

For all the shit the UK got at the start of this, so far they've got the balance good in regards to reopening.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I was thinking more the madness on some other countries/city's.

For all the shit the UK got at the start of this, so far they've got the balance good in regards to reopening.

What other countries/city’s are you talking about? The only really severe local lockdowns I’ve heard about have been in Aus/NZ but their goals are very different to the rest of the world. With more radical measures needed to achieve them.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I have optimism for a number of reasons

1) only a single confirmed case of reinfection and a handful of non-confirmed/suspected cases in more than 6 months means reinfection, at least in the medium term, is much less of a concern than it was. If it was very common we would know by now.
2) Coronaviruses functionally mutate more slowly than other viruses like influenza and with others like SARS immunity lasts up to 3 years post recovering from the disease.
3) Preliminary results from vaccine trial seems to suggest the immune reaction from a vaccine, especially when 2 doses are given, is much stronger than from that resulting from infection by the actual virus
4) Double initial doses and annual boosters before winter will likely be enough to offset short term immunity if it does occur.


I'm more worried that a large scale roll out of a vaccine but a far from universal one could cause the virus to mutate due to selection pressure on the small pool of virus remaining "in the wild" in a way that stops the vaccine working well. Thankfully, we are working on so many vaccines that work in different ways this may be worrying unnecessarily.

We’re at two confirmed cases now. But there’s a lot of effort and good luck needed to identify these cases. Really detailed, careful follow up and testing. Bearing in mind one of these confirmed cases was completely asymptomatic we could be missing hundreds, or even thousands, more. And let’s not forget, a completely asymptomatic reinfection could still potentially pass the virus on to other people.

As for the vaccine trials we have zero evidence they work at all. Literally none. Phase 2 studies just look at antibody response and hope that the “neutralising” antibody really is the one that will clear the virus. The thing is, an infection generates hundreds of new antibodies. The art of developing vaccines is to stimulate the right antibodies. When they talk about “neutralising antibodies” in phase 2 they don’t actually know if they will cure the disease in real life. All they know is how they behave in vitro and that’s no more than a very crude signal of what to expect in vivo. Phase 3 trials are when you first find out whether or not a vaccine actually prevents disease in human beings and we’re still waiting for results from those. There’s a reason vaccine development usually takes a decade or more. It’s bloody difficult.

 

[Mb194dc]

Bits in bold are complete horseshit.

Go look at the numbers in age groups, not exactly clear where the cross over is with normal flu, certainly under 20 possibly as high as 40.

There have been no deaths in otherwise healthy school-age children

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ren-at-strikingly-low-risk-of-severe-illness/

The full extent of mild to totally asymptomatic sars cov 2 infections is almost impossible to gauge. Likely young people can get it, they just don't have any symptoms. If there have been 10 to 100x more cases than tests indicate I wouldn't be surprised at all. Can't do serological studies easily to measure the full infection base because...

We would. That there are only a handful of potential reinfections strongly suggests immunity is the norm. And in fact there are far fewer than you would expect if most mild cases didn't result in T-cell memory (which wouldn't be outlandish/totally unexpected).

All studies so far indicate antibodies disappear after 2 or 3 months in almost everybody, so also no surprise we're seeing re-infections confirmed now:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...avirus-height-pandemic-may-already-risk-says/

Where is the evidence of any lasting immunity ? T cell immunity is a possibility, though mainly it's just hopium. There haven't been any studies done so we have no idea if this is the case or not.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The research suggests exactly the opposite - a vaccine (probably many) is now close to a certainty

hmmm, not sure we can say a vaccine is a certainty, think you’re taking some optimistic liberties with that statement.

 

[Pexbo]

hmmm, not sure we can say a vaccine is a certainty, think you’re taking some optimistic liberties with that statement.

Close to a certainty and a certainty are worlds apart

 

[Wibble]

hmmm, not sure we can say a vaccine is a certainty, think you’re taking some optimistic liberties with that statement.

Very close to a certainty

 

[jojojo]

What other countries/city’s are you talking about? The only really severe local lockdowns I’ve heard about have been in Aus/NZ but their goals are very different to the rest of the world. With more radical measures needed to achieve them.

Spanish U14s weren't allowed out for six weeks, and adults could only go out for specific reasons (which didn't include "exercise" as in the UK). Most workplaces, including a lot of factories closed.

There's a suggestion in Spain now, that part of the problem they're having is that the lockdown was too strong - and that the routine of using social-distancing skills wasn't learned. Instead it was a kind of prison/out setup, particularly in the cities. Psychologically not a good situation, particularly for the younger ones who may now be making up for lost time, while they can.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Spanish U14s weren't allowed out for six weeks, and adults could only go out for specific reasons (which didn't include "exercise" as in the UK). Most workplaces, including a lot of factories closed.

There's a suggestion in Spain now, that part of the problem they're having is that the lockdown was too strong - and that the routine of using social-distancing skills wasn't learned. Instead it was a kind of prison/out setup, particularly in the cities. Psychologically not a good situation, particularly for the younger ones who may now be making up for lost time, while they can.

I think he was referring to repeat “lockdowns” which have been relatively mild in Europe compared to NZ/Aus.

Interesting point about severe lockdowns and not practicing social distancing skills. Makes sense.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Go look at the numbers in age groups, not exactly clear where the cross over is with normal flu, certainly under 20 possibly as high as 40.

You still consider people “young” (as opposed to elderly) long past the age of 40. So it’s complete nonsense to claim flu is more deadly for young people. Flu is more deadly in the young children. And that’s a blessing. The problem with this virus is how deadly it is in adults. Particularly elderly adults. Which is where flu mortality doesn’t come close. And elderly adults have as much right as the rest of us to public health measures which might add 10 or 20 years to their life expectancy.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Very close to a certainty

It’s not at all.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Spanish U14s weren't allowed out for six weeks, and adults could only go out for specific reasons (which didn't include "exercise" as in the UK). Most workplaces, including a lot of factories closed.

There's a suggestion in Spain now, that part of the problem they're having is that the lockdown was too strong - and that the routine of using social-distancing skills wasn't learned. Instead it was a kind of prison/out setup, particularly in the cities. Psychologically not a good situation, particularly for the younger ones who may now be making up for lost time, while they can.

Once again, it’s been the Swedish argument all along that a long term plan & simple easy to follow restrictions are much better than a strong hard lockdown.
Eruptions in cases in many hard lockdown countries post lockdown were precisely what they predicted.
I think Germany and the rest of the Nordics understood this too, hence never had stay at home lockdowns and quickly coming out of restrictions as soon as possible.

 

[Wibble]

We’re at two confirmed cases now. But there’s a lot of effort and good luck needed to identify these cases. Really detailed, careful follow up and testing. Bearing in mind one of these confirmed cases was completely asymptomatic we could be missing hundreds, or even thousands, more. And let’s not forget, a completely asymptomatic reinfection could still potentially pass the virus on to other people.

No matter what if it were a huge factor to the point where it would be a concern in terms of a vaccine we would know by now. Of course nothing is 100% certain until it is fact but it is looking extremely good at this point.

As for the vaccine trials we have zero evidence they work at all. Literally none. Phase 2 studies just look at antibody response and hope that the “neutralising” antibody really is the one that will clear the virus. The thing is, an infection generates hundreds of new antibodies. The art of developing vaccines is to stimulate the right antibodies. When they talk about “neutralising antibodies” in phase 2 they don’t actually know if they will cure the disease in real life. All they know is how they behave in vitro and that’s no more than a very crude signal of what to expect in vivo. Phase 3 trials are when you first find out whether or not a vaccine actually prevents disease in human beings and we’re still waiting for results from those. There’s a reason vaccine development usually takes a decade or more. It’s bloody difficult.

Nothing is certain but the responses in a few vaccine trials is very good. Nothing is 100% certain but I think the chances of all 130 vaccines under development using numerous approaches all failing is getting close to zero. If I'm wrong you can tell me that you told me so. If I'm right I'm going to get pissed and then get in line for it.

 

[Wibble]

It’s not at all.

Yes it is. 130 vaccines at various stages of development. Zero failures to date. We have coronavirus vaccines for animals (mammals). We have a vaccine for SARS close to release.

 

[Wibble]

All studies so far indicate antibodies disappear after 2 or 3 months in almost everybody, so also no surprise we're seeing re-infections confirmed now:

Lasting immunity comes from T-cells mostly. Vaccines also produce a much stronger immune response anyway.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Lasting immunity comes from T-cells mostly. Vaccines also produce a much stronger immune response anyway.

What gave you that impression? See my post above. We have literally zero evidence of any “immune response” (as in, actual prevention of disease) in humans from a vaccine, never mind a stronger response than you get from infection.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Yes it is. 130 vaccines at various stages of development. Zero failures to date.

Means absolutely ziltch at this point.

 

[Wibble]

It really doesn't. Almost certain doesn't mean 100% but it is getting close to certain - 90/95% maybe. Probably just a matter of when.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It really doesn't. It doesn't mean certain but it is getting close to certain. Probably a matter of when.

How many studies do we have trying to find a cure for cancer? More than 130 right?

means absolutely ziltch.

 

[Dan_F]

Once again, it’s been the Swedish argument all along that a long term plan & simple easy to follow restrictions are much better than a strong hard lockdown.
Eruptions in cases in many hard lockdown countries post lockdown were precisely what they predicted.
I think Germany and the rest of the Nordics understood this too, hence never had stay at home lockdowns and quickly coming out of restrictions as soon as possible.

If anything, it shows that lock downs were unavoidable in certain places. If it takes so long to learn those skills, how would it have been possible to continue as it was in the UK without a lock down.

The reason it was so long was purely because it came too late, with social distancing messages from the government being a complete joke. It’s great that Germany, Sweden etc, has populations that listens to government advice. We had Boris openly shaking hands with Covid patients.

 

[Wibble]

How many studies do we have trying to find a cure for cancer? More than 130 right?

means absolutely ziltch.

This isn't cancer. And cancer isn't one thing anyway. Plus we don't have an existing vaccine for any cancers. The closest is a vaccine for genital warts that cause most cervical cancer.

 

[Stack]

How many studies do we have trying to find a cure for cancer? More than 130 right?

means absolutely ziltch.

Significantly different disease and set of problems, we have seen vaccines for viruses. Cancer isnt a virus.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Significantly different disease and set of problems, we have seen vaccines for viruses. Cancer isnt a virus.

the point is that the amount of studies ongoing means ziltch, do we have a vaccine for aids, or for ANY coronavirus for that matter?

 

[Mickeza]

Means absolutely ziltch at this point.

Considering leaders around the world are now saying they’re very confident we will have vaccines by at least early next year you’ve got to think they’re getting some encouraging early results from the numerous ones that are in phase 3 trials. My Health Board have had to deliver mass vaccination plans to Government by September and the suggestion is to gear up for the vaccination of front-line workers from November. It’s far more likely than not we’ll have some sort of vaccine shortly, how effective it will be is the question.

The Nevada reinfection is a bit worrying but the one in Hong Kong was encouraging as the immune system worked exactly how we’d hope it would. I remember reading studies showing not everyone who had mild infection tested positive for antibodies a month later but the vast majority still tested positive for t-cells - it may just be that patient in Nevada is one of the unfortunate ones who didn’t produce anything lasting the first time around. Let’s hope that’s the case and it’s a rare occurrence as those studies suggested it would be.

 

[Mb194dc]

It really doesn't. Almost certain doesn't mean 100% but it is getting close to certain - 90/95% maybe. Probably just a matter of when.

Vaccines rely on our bodies holding immunity to the virus and it also not mutating around the vaccine. There is a reason we don't have a full vaccine for influenza and the common cold which some varieties are also corona viruses.

All research so far suggests we lose antibodies at a rate of 30% a month or so to sars cov 2 and immunity is therefore lost in almost everybody after 3 months. We're already seeing reinfections, the HK one was also a different strain of the virus indicating like influenza sars cov 2 will mutate around our response to it.

The science at this stage suggests vaccination is going to be like influenza in the best case scenario. A yearly changing shot of varying effectiveness. Even that is pretty optimistic.

What we have is a whole lot of global leaders who have got this virus totally and completely wrong, now no one wants to put there head above the parapet to say it...

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Considering leaders around the world are now saying they’re very confident we will have vaccines by at least early next year you’ve got to think they’re getting some encouraging early results from the numerous ones that are in phase 3 trials. My Health Board have had to deliver mass vaccination plans to Government by September and the suggestion is to gear up for the vaccination of front-line workers from November. It’s far more likely than not we’ll have some sort of vaccine shortly, how effective it will be is the question.

The Nevada reinfection is a bit worrying but the one in Hong Kong was encouraging as the immune system worked exactly how we’d hope it would. I remember reading studies showing not everyone who had mild infection tested positive for antibodies a month later but the vast majority still tested positive for t-cells - it may just be that patient in Nevada is one of the unfortunate ones who didn’t produce anything lasting the first time around. Let’s hope that’s the case and it’s a rare occurrence as those studies suggested it would be.

We all hope it’s the case, but stage 3 trials mean ziltch is all I’m saying. World leaders, like the rest of us, are hopeful, but until a vaccine is proven to work, it all means feck all.

 

[Penna]

France had 7379 cases for Friday, previous day was over 6000.

The figures are shocking. What do our French posters think has happened to cause this massive rise?

 

[Mickeza]

We all hope it’s the case, but stage 3 trials mean ziltch is all I’m saying. World leaders, like the rest of us, are hopeful, but until a vaccine is proven to work, it all means feck all.

Yes but the odds are in favour of us having something soon so why you’re comparing it to curing cancer I have no clue.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Yes but the odds are in favour of us having something soon so why you’re comparing it to curing cancer I have no clue.

I’m Not, I’m simply saying that 130 studies is phase 3 doesn’t mean anything is “almost certain”.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The figures are shocking. What do our French posters think has happened to cause this massive rise?

I don't thnk it's a coincidence that this has happened during the holiday season. Most of the country have been on holiday (holiday season finishes today) , tourists everywhere from all over France and from other countries, we're in a semi-touristic area and at least half the cars are not from around here.
We're not in one of the red zones and locals have been pretty good with masks and distancing but I'd imagine the real holiday areas are not the place to be.

 

[Stack]

I don't thnk it's a coincidence that this has happened during the holiday season. Most of the country have been on holiday (holiday season finishes today) , tourists everywhere from all over France and from other countries, we're in a semi-touristic area and at least half the cars are not from around here.
We're not in one of the red zones and locals have been pretty good with masks and distancing but I'd imagine the real holiday areas are not the place to be.

I may be wrong but isnt France the most visited country on earth?

 

[Compton22]

I’m Not, I’m simply saying that 130 studies is phase 3 doesn’t mean anything is “almost certain”.

It's not almost certain for sure, but it also is significant that a lot of vaccine trials are in at least phase 1 and some making it to 3 suggests that they are already having a lot of success in producing the typical vaccine immune response. This is far from meaning 'ziltch'.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I may be wrong but isnt France the most visited country on earth?

Yes and no.2 is Spain where there has been a large increase.
Around this area we have seen a lot of Dutch, Belgian , German and British cars but the British have mainly disappeared since the quarantine regulations came in.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It's not almost certain for sure, but it also is significant that a lot of vaccine trials are in at least phase 1 and some making it to 3 suggests that they are already having a lot of success in producing the typical vaccine immune response. This is far from meaning 'ziltch'.

you need to go back to my original post to Wibs here when I meant ziltch with regards to ”almost certainly”.