SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

“Mass deaths”, Germany, Norway, Finland, Denmark have all had a balanced “think of the entire society approach” with nothing like mass death. You’re always so ridiculously over the top regarding the cost of a balanced approach like Germany.
Even in Sweden our worst month (April) saw less deaths per capita than April 2009 & April 2000.

And dismissing the economic cost of Spain staying in lockdown is almost laughable. You must lack a basic understanding of economics. “It isn’t going to happen”. Longer, harder lockdown in Spain absolutely would make that happen ffs.
And yes, it clearly would be because of lockdown looking at the economic slumps in long lockdown countries vs. no lockdown or short easy lockdown countries, it’s black and white man!
There’s a reason Germany & the Nordics massively outperformed the UK, Italy & Spain in the second quarter of 2020.

Put your confirmation bias to the side for a moment, it’s not a strawman to say a fecked economy costs lives, it clearly does. Venezuela is a perfect example and just trying to dismiss it as “Venezuela, really?” is the shittest of all arguments, yes Venezuela, a perfect example of hyperinflation and a fecked economy even affecting infant mortality.

“government action can minimise” how badly affected poor people will be, erm, not if their economy is fecked they can’t. Unless you think they all have a fecking magic money tree.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Venezuela is a perfect example and just trying to dismiss it as “Venezuela, really?” is the shittest of all arguments, yes Venezuela, a perfect example of hyperinflation and a fecked economy even affecting infant mortality.
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Venezuela Really?

Isnt this a covid thread? Or is it about corruption?
 
BootsyCollins said:
Its a Covid thread.
thats why he used Venezuela as an example of consequences from a broken economy that he argued would happen from lookdown.

If he is right or wrong is not important.
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Some sectors are suffering some are booming this year. Hardly the stuff of depressions. It a silly comparison. I work for a travel company, in the shit. Company below mine make banking software, booming. That's how things go.
 
Brwned said:
Any idea why it seems that the UK folks are particularly wary about going back? There was an idea put forward by government-friendly media early on that the messaging campaign seemed too severe, and people got "too scared". It seemed ludicrous at the time given the more serious measures and messaging in various neighbours. I can't believe that has any semblance of truth even now but I can't think what would cause such a huge difference.

@JPRouve do you have any idea why people would be more keen to go back in France? Does it sound true to you that 3/4 of office workers have already gone back?
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I'm not sure it all comes down to weariness or fear, but perhaps that so many people have now seen how great working from home is and how much more of our lives and money we have left because of it.

I've saved almost £1000 since March on public transport, as well and an hour of my day. I live pretty close to work, and my commute is short. People who live outside of London and commute into the city to work in an office are saving multiple times what I am.
 
Everyone on a zante to cardiff flight has to self isolate due to 7 passengers having covid
 
Stanley Road said:
Some sectors are suffering some are booming this year. Hardly the stuff of depressions. It a silly comparison. I work for a travel company, in the shit. Company below mine make banking software, booming. That's how things go.
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We know the net effect, which is about the ~10% most national GDPs were down in 2Q. That is significant, as an economist I have no desire for it to continue for a full year. Essentially no one is structured for a contraction that steep and that fast.

You mention the disparity in effects by industry, and that is actually an issue and not something positive. If you asked me if I prefer a national economy to contract 10% across the board or varied by industry and some up, while some down over 50%, I'll take the former. Because at least there can be solidarity by the entire population seemingly being in the same boat. With the varied incomes there's more chance for social unrest from the sectors that were more heavily affected. Governments should be doing much more aggressive income transfer programs in the near term, but it is politically a non-starter so I don't expect it to happen.

@Regulus Arcturus Black is referring to Venezuela, which might seem extreme because of how many years it took for that country to reach seemingly the bottom of the barrel for a country in the 21st century and which wasn't a historically deeply impoverished country. But maybe think Weimar Germany in the 20s. I think I've said it somewhere here before.... this depth of economic contraction in countries with less stable/mature democracies has led to coups and other events in the past. I don't expect this to happen to any countries in Western Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand... but outside of those I'd say all bets are off.
 
UK 1 death and 1715 cases

Italy in the last week have been posting 1300-1400 cases per day after so long in the 200-600 range, from end of May to mid Aug
 
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redshaw said:
UK 1 death and 1715 cases

Italy in the last week have been posting 1300-1400 cases per day after so long in the 200-600 range, from end of May to mid Aug
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Definitely creeping back up again but not the exponential rise we have seen elsewhere. That's before schools and universities open mind.
 
MTF said:
We know the net effect, which is about the ~10% most national GDPs were down in 2Q. That is significant, as an economist I have no desire for it to continue for a full year. Essentially no one is structured for a contraction that steep and that fast.

You mention the disparity in effects by industry, and that is actually an issue and not something positive. If you asked me if I prefer a national economy to contract 10% across the board or varied by industry and some up, while some down over 50%, I'll take the former. Because at least there can be solidarity by the entire population seemingly being in the same boat. With the varied incomes there's more chance for social unrest from the sectors that were more heavily affected. Governments should be doing much more aggressive income transfer programs in the near term, but it is politically a non-starter so I don't expect it to happen.

@Regulus Arcturus Black is referring to Venezuela, which might seem extreme because of how many years it took for that country to reach seemingly the bottom of the barrel for a country in the 21st century and which wasn't a historically deeply impoverished country. But maybe think Weimar Germany in the 20s. I think I've said it somewhere here before.... this depth of economic contraction in countries with less stable/mature democracies has led to coups and other events in the past. I don't expect this to happen to any countries in Western Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand... but outside of those I'd say all bets are off.
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Ok right. People care about themselves and their families before the economies as a whole. Like it or not.
 
BootsyCollins said:
Its a Covid thread.
thats why he used Venezuela as an example of consequences from a broken economy that he argued would happen from lookdown.

If he is right or wrong is not important.
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It really is important as it is a straw man argument. Venuzuela isn't the alternative to Sweden's approach.
 
Wibble said:
It really is important as it is a straw man argument. Venuzuela isn't the alternative to Sweden's approach.
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Who the feck is saying it’s Sweden or Venezuela? Talk about a fecking strawman.

Germany was the example I used of a place that has “managed” a balanced Covid-19 response, and struggling economies in Spain & Italy the examples of countries that simple cannot/could not afford to stay in lockdown any longer.

The terrible example is here was your “lockdown or mass deaths” earlier today. They clearly are not the only two options yet your confirmation bias can’t help it.

Me, I know New Zealand have done a great job for NZ, Ireland for Ireland, Germany for Germany. I know the UK and US are inconsistent clusterfecks in their responses. I know the Swedish care home system has been an absolute nightmare and subject of a national enquiry. Thankfully massive improvements have already been made there, hence the huge drop in cases and deaths.

The feck are you banging on about, ”Venezuela or Sweden” and other bullshit that started this like “it’s shocking how many deaths countries have been happy to accept”. Shakes head.
 
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Stanley Road said:
Ok right. People care about themselves and their families before the economies as a whole. Like it or not.
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People do, and social unrest comes when economies crash and the middle class and poor get hit hardest.
There is no simple “choose economy or deaths”, many countries would happily stay locked down as long as it took if their economies could survive it, but they can’t. And broken economies absolutely ruin lives whether you want to accept that or not.

Seriously, how do you expect Spain to stay in lockdown for another 4-5 months? Who would pay the jobless? Who would pay furlough etc etc? Any solutions to that in an already massively struggling economy?
Where is this magic money coming from?
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Who the feck is saying it’s Sweden or Venezuela? Talk about a fecking strawman.

Germany was the example I used of a place that has “managed” a balanced Covid-19 response, and struggling economies in Spain & Italy the examples of countries that simple cannot/could not afford to stay in lockdown any longer.

The terrible example is here was your “lockdown or mass deaths” earlier today. They clearly are not the only two options yet your confirmation bias can’t help it.

Me, I know New Zealand have done a great job for NZ, Ireland for Ireland, Germany for Germany. I know the UK and US are inconsistent clusterfecks in their responses. I know the Swedish care home system has been an absolute nightmare and subject of a national enquiry. Thankfully massive improvements have already been made there, hence the huge drop in cases and deaths.

The feck are you banging on about, ”Venezuela or Sweden” and other bullshit that started this like “it’s shocking how many deaths countries have been happy to accept”. Shakes head.
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Germany isn't going to turn into Venuzuela. Venuzuela as the economic alternative to the West's response to covid is the straw man. We can't lock down or Venuzuela.

And how come the only countries that have locked down properly have the lowest death and infection rate? Of course there are options between full lock down and totally open. Those later options are exactly what has failed so badly almost everywhere. Even in Sweden, who had one of the better outcomes, the result was still has a death rate 20 x that of Australia and NZ did far far better again.

And if you decided not to lock down then you know that the price to pay is in people's lives. Mainly old people's lives of course and the attitude of many is that this makes it less important. But everyone knows this. The politicians all know this. It is a conscious choice even if some consider it unavoidable or a price worth paying. That it is probably too late for most/many countries to lock down now doesn't change the nature of the decisions that have been made already.
 
Some of the Indian states have given up on containment, and from what I am reading, the economy is back at 80-90% functional.

It is the trolley dilemma in action.

Some of the southern US states are doing kinda similar, and hoping high rates of testing will keep a collapse from happening and one of the vaccine candidates will "succeed" before end of year.
 
redshaw said:
UK 1 death and 1715 cases
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Significant case jumps coming from the North West & North East areas:

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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Are people practicing social distancing or is that all out of the window? No restrictions in bars/clubs to seating only etc?
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There are rules about it, but the penalty for not abiding is silly. There’s a restaurant in my city that’s openly refusing to follow the distancing and mask rules. They’ve not been shut down, just will be fined $100 per day... they’ve gained so much more business from people looking to “own the Libz” that they’ll make it back in an hour.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Who the feck is saying it’s Sweden or Venezuela? Talk about a fecking strawman.

Germany was the example I used of a place that has “managed” a balanced Covid-19 response, and struggling economies in Spain & Italy the examples of countries that simple cannot/could not afford to stay in lockdown any longer.

The terrible example is here was your “lockdown or mass deaths” earlier today. They clearly are not the only two options yet your confirmation bias can’t help it.

Me, I know New Zealand have done a great job for NZ, Ireland for Ireland, Germany for Germany. I know the UK and US are inconsistent clusterfecks in their responses. I know the Swedish care home system has been an absolute nightmare and subject of a national enquiry. Thankfully massive improvements have already been made there, hence the huge drop in cases and deaths.

The feck are you banging on about, ”Venezuela or Sweden” and other bullshit that started this like “it’s shocking how many deaths countries have been happy to accept”. Shakes head.
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Germany success (or successful nations that are deemed great in their covid response) has multitude of factors in their favor that cant be replicated across globe.

South korea : timing
China : authority, capital, manpower
Australia : timing, location, efficiency
German : efficient, infrastructure, medical facility, civil obedience

And the bad ones like brazil also has additional handicap which made them unable to copy german approach, namely they cant afford lockdown without potentially leading to civil unrest.

Just something to consider
 
Carolina Red said:
There are rules about it, but the penalty for not abiding is silly. There’s a restaurant in my city that’s openly refusing to follow the distancing and mask rules. They’ve not been shut down, just will be fined $100 per day... they’ve gained so much more business from people looking to “own the Libz” that they’ll make it back in an hour.
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The customer's also idgaf attitude. It's like a jungle in here nobody cares as if nothing happens. Unless they employ martial law and going in with military the social distancing rules cant be enforced.

And on the flip side business are normally run in a tight margin. You can't expect restaurants to run on 50 percent capacity. That's a red zone and in most cases it's better to shut down, at least they're not bleeding financially. For take aways is not that bad but dine in are having it tougher.

It's effecting me as well, after 4 months of fully staying at home i kinda have a que sera sera attitude. Still trying to social distancing etc but with each passing days it's getting harder.

Just trying to look at it from multiple point of view. It really is a catch .22 situation
 
Sky1981 said:
The customer's also idgaf attitude. It's like a jungle in here nobody cares as if nothing happens. Unless they employ martial law and going in with military the social distancing rules cant be enforced.

And on the flip side business are normally run in a tight margin. You can't expect restaurants to run on 50 percent capacity. That's a red zone and in most cases it's better to shut down, at least they're not bleeding financially. For take aways is not that bad but dine in are having it tougher.

It's effecting me as well, after 4 months of fully staying at home i kinda have a que sera sera attitude. Still trying to social distancing etc but with each passing days it's getting harder.

Just trying to look at it from multiple point of view. It really is a catch .22 situation
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With regard to Jakarta I find there are two kinds of tired-of-the-situation people. The first kind are those who do work-related activities more or less normally but are still refraining from dining out and socialising with friends too often, etc. I belong in this group. The second kind are those who just don't give a feck at all and, unfortunately, these folks are becoming the majority.

A friend of mine and her friends went to Bali and Jogja during the public holidays a couple of weeks back for shits and giggles, and since the June reopening her Instagram stories have been nothing but eating out at restaurants and the like. In a country where cases are sadly rising fast, not to mention the situation with inadequate testing in many parts of the country, I find such attitudes to be deeply triggering.
 
Kopral Jono said:
With regard to Jakarta I find there are two kinds of tired-of-the-situation people. The first kind are those who do work-related activities more or less normally but are still refraining from dining out and socialising with friends too often, etc. I belong in this group. The second kind are those who just don't give a feck at all and, unfortunately, these folks are becoming the majority.

A friend of mine and her friends went to Bali and Jogja during the public holidays a couple of weeks back for shits and giggles, and since the June reopening her Instagram stories have been nothing but eating out at restaurants and the like. In a country where cases are sadly rising fast, not to mention the situation with inadequate testing in many parts of the country, I find such attitudes to be deeply triggering.
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I feel them, both sides of the story.

Off course there are people like Jerinx who's just looking for publicity, there's people who hasn't seen daylight in ages. There are people like you and me, who started to dip our toes into mall, going there like once a month trying to keep my sanity (rarely is the key word). Not perfect, but I'm human with needs :(

And there's people who's just too fed up to give a feck, some people who gives a feck but has no other options.

I live in Bandung, it's scary in here they're all cramped up in "warkop" without an ounce of distancing laughing and giggling spitting droplets all over. Every man for himself I guess at this point.

You stay safe in Jakarta
 
Sky1981 said:
I feel them, both sides of the story.

Off course there are people like Jerinx who's just looking for publicity, there's people who hasn't seen daylight in ages. There are people like you and me, who started to dip our toes into mall, going there like once a month trying to keep my sanity (rarely is the key word). Not perfect, but I'm human with needs :(

And there's people who's just too fed up to give a feck, some people who gives a feck but has no other options.

I live in Bandung, it's scary in here they're all cramped up in "warkop" without an ounce of distancing laughing and giggling spitting droplets all over. Every man for himself I guess at this point.

You stay safe in Jakarta
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Bolded is basically me. Ever since the June reopening, my partner and I have dined out a couple of times and we've also invited a select group of friends (who we know hold the same pandemic values as us) to come over to our place and share a few nice bottles of red, all done for the sake of keeping our sanities in these strange times.

I feel those who don't give a feck but has no other choice; but folks who do have options and know the dangers and still don't give a feck, I'm sorry but they need to stop being a child.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
People do, and social unrest comes when economies crash and the middle class and poor get hit hardest.
There is no simple “choose economy or deaths”, many countries would happily stay locked down as long as it took if their economies could survive it, but they can’t. And broken economies absolutely ruin lives whether you want to accept that or not.

Seriously, how do you expect Spain to stay in lockdown for another 4-5 months? Who would pay the jobless? Who would pay furlough etc etc? Any solutions to that in an already massively struggling economy?
Where is this magic money coming from?
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As a non expert, i believe economies are not crashing but resetting. Thats why a look at thriving and dying sectors is important. People on this forum have already mentioned how much money they've saved this year. They will eventually spend that money but not on what they might have spent it on a year ago. When i see house prices around me still rocketing and some booming businesses, its hard for me to imagine that an economic dip is going to last long. Except if we keep opening up and allowing people to spread the virus, then having to close sectors again. This method will drag on for an eternity.
 
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Stanley Road said:
As a non expert, i believe economies are not crashing but resetting. Thats why a look at thriving and dying sectors is important. People on this forum have already mentioned how much money they've saved this year. They will eventually spend that money but not on what they might have spent it on a year ago. When i see house prices around me still rocketing and some booming businesses, its hard for me to imagine that an economic dip is going to last long. Except if we keep opening up and allowing people to spread the virus, then having to close sectors again. This method will drag on for an eternity.
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I agree with most of these sentiments however the real challenge for governments will be how the poorer/lower paid are supported going forward because there will be millions more of them in the future. The economic effects of the pandemic are not falling equally on populations. Working from home might well be the way forward for the majority of the middle/professional classes but will do feck all for bus drivers, office cleaners, cafe staff, sandwich sellers, retail staff etc etc. Somehow they will have to be supported In the long term.
 
Virgil said:
I agree with most of these sentiments however the real challenge for governments will be how the poorer/lower paid are supported going forward because there will be millions more of them in the future. The economic effects of the pandemic are not falling equally on populations. Working from home might well be the way forward for the majority of the middle/professional classes but will do feck all for bus drivers, office cleaners, cafe staff, sandwich sellers, retail staff etc etc. Somehow they will have to be supported In the long term.
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Bus drivers haven't missed a days work this year here. They are also obviously immune from covid as they are the only ones in the bus that dont have to wear a mask.
 
Wibble said:
Strain seems to be a rather vague term (or it could be my lack of understanding of the literature) but I thought at the moment there was little enough variation that a single vaccine will work. I guess that depends on what part of the virus varies and what part of the virus a particular vaccine targets.
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Yeah strain is a poorly defined term, some researchers have chosen to use it to describe lineages of SARS-CoV-2 with a single amino acid difference. I suppose you could use that definition if that amino acid change has a significant effect on virus physiology e.g. if it alters its transmissibility or virulence. There is a suggestion that one such amino acid change in the spike protein (D614G, or the "G-variant", which sounds like something out of resident evil) has increased transmissibility. As far as I know (from asking someone working on covid genomics at work) this variant does account for 97% of cases, but the jury is still out as to whether that is because of increased transmissibility or not (see short paper).

As for whether the diversity of "strains" can affect the efficacy of a vaccine, it definitely could but the extent to which it could is not clear yet. From what I understand, the mutation frequency of SAR-CoV-2 hasn't been fully characterised but seems to be in line with other coronaviruses, less than influenza, and significantly less than HIV (if I remember correctly there is as much genetic variation of HIV in one patient than there is of influenza around the world). The efficacy of a vaccine candidate is dependent on two things; 1) how robust the immune response is and how long the resulting immune memory lasts 2) whether the virus does anything to evade the resulting immune response, such as pick up mutations (antigenic drift).

1) We don't yet know how long the immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 infection will last, but we can say that SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies last at least 3 months, as that is how long we've been able to measure so far. After that you can try and draw conclusions from other coronaviruses, for the common cold coronaviruses it is often stated that the immune memory lasts about a year (although I heard one virologist say that this assumption is based entirely on one paper, that also showed people who are reinfected don't develop symptoms link to podcast). In contrast, specific antibodies to SARS-CoV-1 last 2-3 years, and memory T-cells have been found 17-years after recovery from SARS Paper about T-cell responses in SARS-1&2 . There is an idea that the degree of immune memory is dictated to some extent by the severity of infection, which seems intuitive in this situation given the severity of SARS infection. So it is tricky to draw any conclusions from comparing to other coronaviruses, as there is a large variation in the severity of COVID-19 cases. As for a vaccine, you would hope that some of them will generate a robust immune response with lasting memory, which seems might be the case from phase 2 data (although I'm not sure how/if they can comment on memory this early?).

2) It is possible that the selective pressure of a vaccine could select for mutations that confer vaccine resistance, at which point the vaccine would need to be redesigned like for the flu. This is one of the arguments for co-ordinated mass vaccination, as less circulating virus reduces the rate at which new variants will arise. The reduced mutation frequency compared to influenza might help prolong the lifetime of a vaccine. Are there existing variants that could evade the vaccine? I'm not sure about this, I guess the people developing vaccines will have a close eye on any spike mutations that crop up.

I am pretty positive for an effective vaccine, based on the info above. It might not be one of the first wave, but there are a lot in development. Even a 50% effective vaccine could help us restore a large degree of normality.

Disclaimer: I work on bacteria not viruses and am not an expert in virology or immunology.
 
Sky1981 said:
Germany success (or successful nations that are deemed great in their covid response) has multitude of factors in their favor that cant be replicated across globe.
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I know @Sky1981, that’s my entire point. Different countries need different approaches, depending on a multitude of factors, not least their economic ability.
Wibs thinks there’s a one size fits all solution.
 
Wibble said:
And how come the only countries that have locked down properly have the lowest death and infection rate?
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Well that’s utter bollocks, France and Belgium tell you that. (Portugal also).
Germany have massively outperformed both.
Finland, Norway & Denmark also piss on that stupid statement. South Korea another.
Important factors appear to be how fast a country got onto it, at what stage they “caught it” if you like. The the location, economic ability, land borders etc etc etc all have required different approaches.
 
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I heard rumors that COVID isn't deadly if you have cash to burn and the best medical treatment available. What they're basically doing is inject our body with the best (expensive) medicine like Remdemsivir and let nature take its course. Kinda like one size fits all drug. So unless you're poor or having severe pre-existing conditions you'll be fine if you can afford it.

make sense when you think big names (Prime Minister, A listed actress, minister, etc) loaded with cash seldom died to Covid because they can afford the best and personalized healthcare.

I'm not insinuating something sinister, it's just wealthy people benefiting from their wealth.
 
Sky1981 said:
I heard rumors that COVID isn't deadly if you have cash to burn and the best medical treatment available. What they're basically doing is inject our body with the best (expensive) medicine like Remdemsivir and let nature take its course. Kinda like one size fits all drug. So unless you're poor or having severe pre-existing conditions you'll be fine if you can afford it.

make sense when you think big names (Prime Minister, A listed actress, minister, etc) loaded with cash seldom died to Covid because they can afford the best and personalized healthcare.

I'm not insinuating something sinister, it's just wealthy people benefiting from their wealth.
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Rich people have been dying as well. Just a hell of a lot more poor people, we've also got to the point where we have forms of treatment now. We should find out in the next month how it's going off the second wave truly takes hold and of its still as lethal as it might have mutated to being less deadly.
 
Sky1981 said:
I heard rumors that COVID isn't deadly if you have cash to burn and the best medical treatment available. What they're basically doing is inject our body with the best (expensive) medicine like Remdemsivir and let nature take its course. Kinda like one size fits all drug. So unless you're poor or having severe pre-existing conditions you'll be fine if you can afford it.

make sense when you think big names (Prime Minister, A listed actress, minister, etc) loaded with cash seldom died to Covid because they can afford the best and personalized healthcare.

I'm not insinuating something sinister, it's just wealthy people benefiting from their wealth.
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Yeah that’s not true at all.
Rich people are more “immune” due to being able to social distance and have everything ordered home.

The huge majority of all people survive Covid, that’s why the rich celebs we hear of do also.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Well that’s utter bollocks, France and Belgium tell you that.
Germany have massively outperformed both.
Finland, Norway & Denmark also piss on that stupid statement. South Korea another.
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Belgium had to close everything back up due to massive spikes in infections, caused solely by opening up and allowing people to mingle. Same in Holland. So yeah, lockdowns do work. Arguing against it is futile.
 
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