SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

So, a bit like COVID-19 then.....

Fewer young people die from covid, it kills a larger percentage of older people who get it, we don't have a vaccine and ventilation saves far fewer of those with severe symptoms, even if we are getting a bit better at treating it. It is also far more communicable than flu and there are far far more frequent severe and long term ongoing symptoms.

So except in the sense that your grandmother would be your grandfather is she had balls, no.
 
India getting absolutely hammered. The real counts are probably at least 2x, and more likely something like 4 or 5x.
 
If you can get it for free, I’d get it. It’s not 100% effective (in fact, a long way short of that) but it will reduce your chances of catching flu. With all the “it’s just a bad flu” chat about covid I think people are forgetting how nasty it is to catch influenza. Most people who have flu have a different, much milder illness. The real deal is fecking horrendous. It makes you feel like death warmed up for ages and does very occasionally kill young healthy people.
Any idea why there are two versions of the flu vaccine? My daughter has had them since she was about 4, and it's administered by a nasal spray type of thing. Why is the standard one for adults the traditional injection?

Asking because I have a really bad phobia of needles and other medical apparatus, but obviously I need to get over it sharpish (pun intended).
 
Fewer young people die from covid, it kills a larger percentage of older people who get it, we don't have a vaccine and ventilation saves far fewer of those with severe symptoms, even if we are getting a bit better at treating it. It is also far more communicable than flu and there are far far more frequent severe and long term ongoing symptoms.

So except in the sense that your grandmother would be your grandfather is she had balls, no.

So, it would be better from a socioeconomic and wider health perspective for those very elderly or immunocompromised people, or their close contacts, to self-isolate and, when they can't, undertake strict social distancing and hygiene measures?
 
Any idea why there are two versions of the flu vaccine? My daughter has had them since she was about 4, and it's administered by a nasal spray type of thing. Why is the standard one for adults the traditional injection?

Asking because I have a really bad phobia of needles and other medical apparatus, but obviously I need to get over it sharpish (pun intended).
The nasal flu spray has also been used widely in the US since 2007 in children from the age of 2 upwards. It has a good safety profile. In 2016, research from the US showed that the nasal flu vaccine was no longer working well in children against one of the strains in the vaccine (influenza A(H1N1)). As a result the nasal flu spray was not recommended for use in the US during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 flu seasons (see our blog piece from September 2016).

However, research in the UK and in Finland showed that in these two countries the nasal flu spray was still working well against influenza A(H1N1). It is not known why there is a difference between the US research and the UK and Finnish research, but the UK is continuing to monitor this. There is a review from August 2017 which looks at the issues in more detail.

For 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons the vaccine manufacturers have used a different version of the influenza A(H1N1) strain in the vaccine. This is expected to be more effective against influenza A(H1N1), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US are now once again recommending the nasal flu spray for use in children in the 2018-19 flu season.

Source: https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/nasal-flu-vaccine
 
The nasal flu spray has also been used widely in the US since 2007 in children from the age of 2 upwards. It has a good safety profile. In 2016, research from the US showed that the nasal flu vaccine was no longer working well in children against one of the strains in the vaccine (influenza A(H1N1)). As a result the nasal flu spray was not recommended for use in the US during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 flu seasons (see our blog piece from September 2016).

However, research in the UK and in Finland showed that in these two countries the nasal flu spray was still working well against influenza A(H1N1). It is not known why there is a difference between the US research and the UK and Finnish research, but the UK is continuing to monitor this. There is a review from August 2017 which looks at the issues in more detail.

For 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons the vaccine manufacturers have used a different version of the influenza A(H1N1) strain in the vaccine. This is expected to be more effective against influenza A(H1N1), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US are now once again recommending the nasal flu spray for use in children in the 2018-19 flu season.

Source: https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/nasal-flu-vaccine
Thanks for the info. Question remains as to why this is just for children rather than adults though. For people like myself with phobias, I'm much more likely to go and get a vaccination if it doesn't trigger a panic attack/fainting episode!
 
Just about to post 2988 cases. Also 2 deaths.

We've seen another Sunday recently with a high figure as if it's just accumulation but I'd say cases are on the rise. Trying to say oh it's just this little area here and this area over there, and targeted testing. ONS say still no real rise but with broad limited testing of 67 million, you can easily miss places. The growth will always start in pockets. I remember Sheffield was ahead of others in March in the north, it's just down to who goes where and when etc. This will build as more come back with it on planes.

We got down to 500 cases without masks and they were supposed to help with the rest but as we've seen in Spain and France it can easily rise. I doubt shops are the problem.
 
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The case number increases has seen some significant jump in Bolton, Birmingham & Leeds. Bolton seems like they can't keep control over it, and rumoured just to be down to one person not isolating after returning from holiday & proceeding to go out on a pub crawl.

If it continues to rise over the coming days, EOTHO seemed like such a wonderful idea eh?

If there was any correlation to that scheme (which I don't think there is) we would have seen much earlier, not after the scheme has finished.
 
Any idea why there are two versions of the flu vaccine? My daughter has had them since she was about 4, and it's administered by a nasal spray type of thing. Why is the standard one for adults the traditional injection?

Asking because I have a really bad phobia of needles and other medical apparatus, but obviously I need to get over it sharpish (pun intended).
Thanks for the info. Question remains as to why this is just for children rather than adults though. For people like myself with phobias, I'm much more likely to go and get a vaccination if it doesn't trigger a panic attack/fainting episode!

I think it’s probably a cost effectiveness thing. Vaccinating by needle will be at least as effective as the nasal spray but a hell of a lot cheaper. The NHS can’t justify forking out extra for every adult who’s scared of needles. As you probably realise anyway, think of it as a trial run for your covid shot!
 
We got down to 500 cases without masks and they were supposed to help with the rest but as we've seen in Spain and France it can easily rise. I doubt shops are the problem.

We're also the first week after the end of the holidays, it wouldn't surprise me (similar to the stats in March) that we're seeing an increase of covid cases coming back from European shores.
 
I think it’s probably a cost effectiveness thing. Vaccinating by needle will be at least as effective as the nasal spray but a hell of a lot cheaper. The NHS can’t justify forking out extra for every adult who’s scared of needles. As you probably realise anyway, think of it as a trial run for your covid shot!
I was thinking maybe the nasal one was less effective or whatever, but hadn't considered cost. I'd happily pay for the nasal one, but an irrational and extreme phobia overrides my rational side, and I just skip the whole thing.

To be fair, I've only recently got to an age where it has become a consideration to have a flu shot, and I've never been recommended one. Obviously I can put the phobia to one side easier in my mind with something more serious like Covid.

I did manage to briefly overcome the phobia and had a voluntary blood test about 12 years ago, but I was on diazipam during that. Since then, it's come back with a vengeance and the pills aren't as effective. In a hospital setting with the threat of any procedure, my blood pressure plummets and unless I drop to the floor and curl up in a ball for 5-10 minutes, I pass out and coming around is the most horrific experience. It is probably that which I'm afraid of most.
 
I was thinking maybe the nasal one was less effective or whatever, but hadn't considered cost. I'd happily pay for the nasal one, but an irrational and extreme phobia overrides my rational side, and I just skip the whole thing.

To be fair, I've only recently got to an age where it has become a consideration to have a flu shot, and I've never been recommended one. Obviously I can put the phobia to one side easier in my mind with something more serious like Covid.

I did manage to briefly overcome the phobia and had a voluntary blood test about 12 years ago, but I was on diazipam during that. Since then, it's come back with a vengeance and the pills aren't as effective. In a hospital setting with the threat of any procedure, my blood pressure plummets and unless I drop to the floor and curl up in a ball for 5-10 minutes, I pass out and coming around is the most horrific experience. It is probably that which I'm afraid of most.

You should have a chat with your GP. If needles are as big an issue for you as they sound, they should be able to make an exception for you.

Of course, if you have any tattoos prepare to be laughed at...
 
Do we think there is any weight to the theory that the reason admissions and deaths are remaining stable/dropping despite the undoubted rise in cases is due to mask wearing/social distancing leading to a lower viral load and thus milder symptoms? Or is it a just due to younger people driving the epidemic which will undoubtedly spread to more vulnerable groups and a natural lag thus admissions/deaths will increase again in a few weeks? Seriously hoping the former but France does seem to be worrying.
 
We're also the first week after the end of the holidays, it wouldn't surprise me (similar to the stats in March) that we're seeing an increase of covid cases coming back from European shores.

The UK always had widespread Covid-19 and it was always going to grow again from within the UK. You don’t need to blame other countries or people “bringing it back”, it never left and has been steadily growing, just as with the majority of places post lockdowns, which was inevitable.
 
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Amazing how Karen from Byron Bay stopped being quite so convinced that vaccines caused autism once their family tax benefit was threatened. Then again that wild Kombucha isn't cheap.
Yes, let's celebrate people being forced through economics to make healthcare decisions.
 
Do we think there is any weight to the theory that the reason admissions and deaths are remaining stable/dropping despite the undoubted rise in cases is due to mask wearing/social distancing leading to a lower viral load and thus milder symptoms? Or is it a just due to younger people driving the epidemic which will undoubtedly spread to more vulnerable groups and a natural lag thus admissions/deaths will increase again in a few weeks? Seriously hoping the former but France does seem to be worrying.

Oldies/Vunerableies, for the most part, are still being extremely careful. Much more so that when this first hit. A higher % of cases now will be among younger peeps who are flaunting the guidelinse.
 
You should have a chat with your GP. If needles are as big an issue for you as they sound, they should be able to make an exception for you.

Of course, if you have any tattoos prepare to be laughed at...
Nah, never been tempted by tattoos. Before I even get to the needle element, it's a total lack of conviction and decisiveness. If I want to wear a slogan or design, I can do that with a t-shirt!
 
Do we think there is any weight to the theory that the reason admissions and deaths are remaining stable/dropping despite the undoubted rise in cases is due to mask wearing/social distancing leading to a lower viral load and thus milder symptoms? Or is it a just due to younger people driving the epidemic which will undoubtedly spread to more vulnerable groups and a natural lag thus admissions/deaths will increase again in a few weeks? Seriously hoping the former but France does seem to be worrying.

My money’s on the latter. The former just seems like clutching at straws.
 
Yeah the latter, but at a lesser degree I’d say. More due to risk groups knowing the danger which they didn’t in March.

That can only go on for so long though. At risk groups can only do so much to protect themselves. The higher the community spread the harder it gets. Plus it’s not fair to expect them to lock themselves away indefinitely. We’d all be in a much better place if everyone bucked up their fecking ideas and got this community spread a bit lower again.
 
That can only go on for so long though. At risk groups can only do so much to protect themselves. The higher the community spread the harder it gets. Plus it’s not fair to expect them to lock themselves away indefinitely. We’d all be in a much better place if everyone bucked up their fecking ideas and got this community spread a bit lower again.

Absolutely. Champagne cork effect though post lockdown, hopefully now that cases are taking a proper rise again people will buck up their ideas.
 
My money’s on the latter. The former just seems like clutching at straws.
Yeah it does seem a bit too good to be true. That professor John Campbell seems to think it’s true though and I respect him, he definitely isn’t a happy clapper. It fits in with some of the anecdotal evidence about hospitals seeing lower viral loads now and also the theories around why young healthcare workers seemed disproportionately more likely to get serious symptoms at the start of the pandemic. I read chicken pox is similar in that severity is linked to viral load but that was on the Daily Mail so not sure if that’s right!
 
Absolutely. Champagne cork effect though post lockdown, hopefully now that cases are taking a proper rise again people will buck up their ideas.

It’s been a lot more gradual than post lockdown giddiness. Seems to be people slowly starting to convince themselves the virus isn’t that dangerous and we don’t need to be careful any more. I’m guilty of that myself. It’s a very tempting attitude. Even when you know it’s completely irrational.
 
It’s been a lot more gradual than post lockdown giddiness. Seems to be people slowly starting to convince themselves the virus isn’t that dangerous and we don’t need to be careful any more. I’m guilty of that myself. It’s a very tempting attitude. Even when you know it’s completely irrational.

It’s always going to be gradual though once you brought cases down so low. But yeah, fatigue post lockdown is certainly a part of it too, even here people aren’t doing the things they were in March, April and May.
 
Yeah it does seem a bit too good to be true. That professor John Campbell seems to think it’s true though and I respect him, he definitely isn’t a happy clapper. It fits in with some of the anecdotal evidence about hospitals seeing lower viral loads now and also the theories around why young healthcare workers seemed disproportionately more likely to get serious symptoms at the start of the pandemic. I read chicken pox is similar in that severity is linked to viral load but that was on the Daily Mail so not sure if that’s right!

Don’t think I’ve read any John Cambell stuff. Do you have a link? Could do with some positivity!
 
It’s always going to be gradual though once you brought cases down so low. But yeah, fatigue post lockdown is certainly a part of it too, even here people aren’t doing the things they were in March, April and May.

I just mean gradual in terms of behaviour. We didn’t get street parties when lockdown ended. There never was any “champagne cork effect”. Not in Ireland anyway. Pubs and restaurants were very quiet a couple of months back but they’re getting busier and busier with each week that passes. People are desperate to get back to normal. It’s understandable. But it’s going to cause us problems over the next few weeks/months.
 
I just mean gradual in terms of behaviour. We didn’t get street parties when lockdown ended. There never was any “champagne cork effect”. Not in Ireland anyway. Pubs and restaurants were very quiet a couple of months back but they’re getting busier and busier with each week that passes. People are desperate to get back to normal. It’s understandable. But it’s going to cause us problems over the next few weeks/months.

Spain had a champagne cork effect and there’s been plenty of examples of raves etc in the UK post lockdown.
Ireland seems to have a better grip on it all in fairness.
 
It’s been a lot more gradual than post lockdown giddiness. Seems to be people slowly starting to convince themselves the virus isn’t that dangerous and we don’t need to be careful any more. I’m guilty of that myself. It’s a very tempting attitude. Even when you know it’s completely irrational.

It's made harder if you have people around you that are applying the pressure by trying to convince you to do more. Which can in turn make you feel like you're being silly for continuing to remain uber-vigilent. Nobody should be made to feel that way.

Winter will be a real challenge. People will be driven indoors. The temptation to have people in your home (as opposed to just your garden) will grow. It will test the resilience of those who have so far resisted the urge to do things that are considered higher-risk.
 
Yeah the coming winter is going to be a nightmare.
 
It's made harder if you have people around you that are applying the pressure by trying to convince you to do more. Which can in turn make you feel like you're being silly for continuing to remain uber-vigilent. Nobody should be made to feel that way.

Winter will be a real challenge. People will be driven indoors. The temptation to have people in your home (as opposed to just your garden) will grow. It will test the resilience of those who have so far resisted the urge to do things that are considered higher-risk.

It’s fascinating how varied everyone’s approach to risk is. There’s a lot of variation within my social circle (who are mostly “like-minded and affluent”; am I doing that right?) so the amount of variation across the whole country must be huge.
 
I'm kinda psyching myself up to live like this until Christmas... but it would really want to sort itself out then haha. I honestly need an end in sight to get my head right !

Not since March in Italy have we really seen hospitals overwhelmed, and they seem to be far better at treating at risk individuals than they were. With improvements in testing that could realistically be available in coming months, maybe getting back to some normality early next year is possible.
 
^ I expect significant normalcy to return by end March of next year.

We will have at least one vaccine candidate to show reasonably efficacy (75%+) and mass vaccination to being by end year. And we will continue seeing iterative improvements in therapeutics.
 
^ I expect significant normalcy to return by end March of next year.

We will have at least one vaccine candidate to show reasonably efficacy (75%+) and mass vaccination to being by end year. And we will continue seeing iterative improvements in therapeutics.

I think that may be a bit early. It will take time for all countries and populations to get a vaccine distributed and operating. A large number of countries will vaccinate the elderly and at risk first and then the rest of the population will follow. Significant normalcy will require a high number of countries to have got this all working.