Agreed and they are frequent and often long term.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Agreed and they are frequent and often long term.
I'd disagree that vulnerable people have been protected in any way, shape or form. I'd argue quite the opposite actually.
As I said protecting the vulnerable is the key. It has been done though if you look at death rates vs infection rates in countries like Germany, Singapore etc though.
Do we have the data yet to suggest that ongoing health problems are "frequent and often long term"?
It has been hard for those in Victoria but the alternative is much worse and the vast majority are supportive of the lockdown. I have lots of friends and work collegues in lockdown and while they don't like it they are all uncomplaining and get on with it. Victoria shows how effective restrictions are. They have gone from 700 infections per day and almost exponential growth to under 50 infections per day in a few weeks.
European lockdowns failed because they didn't close their borders, enforce quarantine or have an effective track and trace program. The latter being almost impossible unless you are keeping infection rates very low.
The vulnerable have been hugely protected and the fact it hasn't worked that well just shows how hard it is to do that against such an infectious enemy.
And this was a conversation in the context of herd immunity without a vaccine. Persue herd immunity without a vaccine and the price is industrial level death.
There is no point comparing the UK to countries who have far greater discipline. The UK is totally unlike them and are more like the US in behaviour now and they aren't going so well.
It's a bit of a culture shock being back in England and seeing so many people without masks/not distancing. I've been in half a dozen different shops over the last two days and the staff weren't wearing masks in any of them.
Loads of studies are showing long term effects particularly in those who suffer severe symptoms. This is just one report
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/cl...ects of COVID,have long-term pulmonary damage.
But it isn't restricted to those who ended up in ICU.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...ports/coronavirus-survivors-athletes.amp.html
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Too many affluent, like minded individuals.
Did this happen? Fair play if so. Twitter mob are calling the Notts police corrupt and that they've made up this story just to warn people.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree in terms of the protection levels of the vulnerable in the UK. Sending Covid patients out of hospitals and into care homes is in no way protecting this group.The protection they did receive was in the form of locking the doors after the horse had bolted. If you ranked first world countries by policies to protect the vulnerable the UK would be damn close to the bottom.
I'd be stunned, even with the current incompetent government, if with any form of second wave the vulnerable would be in the same position. Especially with such increased testing capacities since April.
Any first would country that experiences 0.5% death rate going forward; with the greater knowledge of the disease, greater testing ability, far better treatments and time to study successful* countries; will have utterly failed.
* By success I mean countries who haven't implemented draconian measures but have managed to limit both spread and death rate.
It is nothing to do with tarring businesses with the same brush. It is about the illogical nature of allowing, as an example, 50 people to sit in a restaurant, in an enclosed space but not allowing more than 6 people to meet in a private back garden outside. When it has been shown that the risk of the virus spreading is much lower outdoors in open air.
The government is choosing the worst of both worlds because we have one of the highest death tolls in Europe but also the biggest shrinkage of our economy. The rules they have put in place are inconsistent and illogical, so we get the worst of both worlds, high deaths and heavy economical impact.
Essentially, it seems to me the UK government are going for herd immunity through the backdoor but at the same time breaching personal freedom with illogical rules. 7 days after spending £500 million on "eat out to help out", why not at least focus on take away? Why can one single person have a party with 5 people from 5 different households but a family of 6 cannot have anyone visit. The rules are so inconsistent.
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BBC reported it this morning. A 19 year old lad inviting 50 people over and apparently already been warned not to.
Like I said before, there's no standardized practice in dealing with the pandemic. People have different values, priorities and concerns and there's no single strategy which could fit everyone. It's not only a public health issue, and you have to take economic, social and ethical points of views into consideration. The balance is different for different people and the number of cases and deaths shouldn't be considered as the only indicators.
Imo herd immunity certainly has its limitations, especially its potential to overwhelm the healthcare system. But apart from that, I think people are writing it off too early. It maintains the normality of the society and it may be achieved much earlier than an extensive vaccination program. It is also more feasible in the west where people value personal's freedom more than collective interests and people have low compliance.
I would love to talk to the kid if only to ask him why?
I wonder what happened that guy? Anyone remember his name?
I do agree it’s illogical
But, restaurants can effectively manage how many people come in
If a couple invite people over to their garden lunch/party, after a while there’s no control. They aren’t gonna lock the front door if more than their quota turn up, they are going to get closer and closer to each other when they are drinking and they are going to be going in and out of the hosts house to use the toilet, get more drinks etc. Most of this would be in a controlled situation with staff cleaning regularly in a restaurant setting but not so in someone’s private house
So “proper lockdowns work unequivocally” actually means, they, just like smart social distancing get cases down? But they give zero guarantees of the future and are utterly useless without top notch track and trace?
The majority of lockdowns have “failed” so far, extensive track & trace keeps cases down, not lockdown, and lowering of cases can absolutely be achieved without lockdown, although stats in Europe show it likely takes a month longer to achieve the lower case levels.
The secret to Norway, Finland, South Korea and other countries keeping cases low has been track and trace, and that will be the key in the future for all countries. Those that got their cases low with or without lockdown, need to keep them low and only track and trace can achieve this.
That you still think Victoria now having 40 cases per day after a horror year of lockdown since March with a few weeks break is some “success” is mindblowing mental gymnastics.
Locking people up for most of 2020 is inhumane and a complete failure of lockdown.
It’s been a total utter failure, just as France and Spain are proving to be.
What are your thoughts on Israel Wibbs? Was proper lockdown an unequivocal success there?
I swear you’d declare 2 years of hard lockdown a success if it meant no Covid-19 deaths.
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Doesn't the law only come into force tomorrow ?
My daughter was on the train yesterday from London to Bristol. She noticed that a number of people had taken their masks off. So she asked a porter to remind them of the requirements to wear a face covering. He did that and the people put their masks on.
But as soon as the porter moved away, they took them off again. So my daughter told them that they are required to wear their face covering. And they ignored her.
Typically stupid behaviour.
But as soon as the porter moved away, they took them off again. So my daughter told them that they are required to wear their face covering. And they ignored her.
Typically stupid behaviour.
I like how he just bounced from the caf, fully aware that he'll never live it down.
Think it began with an S.
Was it Starkey or something similar ? He disappeared after that debacle, never too return.
@Starkie_1 I'll never forget that guy, what a plonker.
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Greenwood again ffs
Government advice is pretty typically incompetent.
The current measures certainly aren't going to do enough to prevent the numbers from rising further.
Advice for working should really of never changed from 'work from home if you can'
The eat out to help out was silly, you just had crowds of people monday to wednesday because why not?
The current measures certainly aren't going to do enough to prevent the numbers from rising further.
Advice for working should really of never changed from 'work from home if you can'
The eat out to help out was silly, you just had crowds of people monday to wednesday because why not?
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Track and trace is woeful in the UK as well as quarantine. We should also be testing like mad to not only identify the covid cases but to also eliminate the non covid so people can get on with things but testing is all to feck too , people are getting sent hundreds of miles or just being told that none are available and to isolate in case. So now a lot of people don`t report minor symptoms as they don`t want to be stuck at home , unable to work with a common cold.
I agree with this. I hate the notion that lockdowns are the only thing that work that Dan Andrews continually spouts. 'Cases numbers are lowering, so the lockdown works' .... 'The data shows lockdown works' .
Of course they work, but as you say so does social distances and doing the right thing. The first lockdown fair enough, you need to prepare yourself for a covid normal, stop the health system becoming overwhelmed etc. Even the second lockdown was accepted for 4 weeks it was put in place but it's been extended and extended. There was no justification for a such a second harsh lockdown with curfews. It's been extended 6 times now, with hardly any consideration for the economy, people's mental state and the future of Victoria.
All these harsh lockdowns to have a normal Christmas. What does that even look like? He said 40 cases per day, we can't open up and must stick to a 8PM/9PM curfew and only leave the house for 4 things. What happens in December if there is another small outbreak and 30/40 cases re-appear? Do we go into another lockdown? Stage 4?
Yeah, I imagine it’s been pretty woeful anywhere with high cases/deaths, including here in Sweden, where at the start of the outbreak they tested and traced people returning from the alps but not the USA or the UK, which ended up being the strains that spread like wildfire through the country.
The key for any country is “get cases low, then track trace like hell”. That much is pretty much indisputable now.
Here they’ve managed the first part without lockdown, but can they manage the second part better than France, UK etc? You’d have to be sceptical considering how it went in the first wave.
I still can’t quite get over Wibs thinking lockdowns work “unequivocally” and pointing to a state of 6 million having “only 40 cases per day” as an example after being in lockdown pretty much since March (6 months). Insane.
That’s him, hasn’t been online since March. I hope he got nothing more than embarrassment
Aye, it’s utterly insane and gives zero consideration to what Victorians have already been through in 2020.
Plenty of countries have shown for over half a year now that you can keep cases and deaths right down once you get cases to those levels Victoria is currently experiencing. Are the Australian government just admitting they are so shit at the track and trace that they can’t trust themselves to deal with track and trace like Norway, South Korea, Finland etc etc? or that they can’t trust their citizens to social distance?
Lockdowns did work when they were put in place. The main purpose was to slow the infection rates and lower the pressure on hospitals etc. Take Italy for example, just look at the graphs of their daily cases, the lockdown there dropped the daily cases dramatically. Lockdowns to achieve elimination might be a harder case to pursue but if you look at all the countries that put in place a lockdown the overwhelming large majority worked in reducing the infection rates. The trouble is this virus is a tricky bastard and maintaining low infection rates is really difficult.
Are you seriously telling us that we can trust the general public to socially distance responsibly? Have a look all over the world, people are not doing that responsibly and if you think we can be trusted to do it you are incredibly naive
Yeah, locking people in their homes eventually gets cases low, but so does social distancing.
But the point of saying lockdowns work unequivocally means they have to have a long-term goal as well. They were never sustainable, they were always a case of killing a fly with a hammer, they will always cause a multitude of other issues and they don’t tackle the problem long term.
Israel, France and Australia are all proof of this.
What works quite clearly is track and trace to keep cases low and to keep a regular or even lower levels or mortality. All the countries doing best have been brilliant at mass testing and track and trace, lockdown has had little or in some places no meaning.
The lockdown was immensely important for the (relatively) low numbers in Germany.
A whole host of countries have managed to keep cases low for months despite not being in lockdown, most of the time it’s the citizens that have had the most trust from their government.
you’re missing the point, yes locking down gets cases low, just as great social distance does, even if it takes a little longer. What has kept Germany‘s numbers low has been citizens that want to follow the guidelines and amazing testing and track and trace.
For every Germany, there is a France or a Spain that don’t have the same abilities to track and trace.
Why do have to resort to lies to make your point then?
What lies? That lockdowns haven’t unequivocally worked in France, Spain, Israel etc?
I quoted your lie about Germany earlier.
" But the point of saying lockdowns work unequivocally means they have to have a long-term goal as well" Who said????? What bollocks. They worked unequivocally in reducing infection rates. Why do lockdowns alone have to have a long term goal? they were a means to an end, a way to reduce infection rates. Once lockdowns ended then other measures are needed to maintain the status quo made possible by the lockdown. Nobody anywhere claimed lockdowns would stop the virus. They were/are part of the toolkit.
You’re making a different point.
i’m not arguing against lockdowns at a certain point having a good effect, I’m arguing that they have not worked “unequivocally” and that without good track and trace they end up pretty pointless.
I just checked the graphs for France, Spain and Israel, the initial lockdowns all worked, they reduced the infection rates effectively. The problem is the follow up systems have failed.
Why? Because they cause so many negative side-effects And if all they manage to do in certain countries is kick the can down the road for two months then they are a shit part of the tool kit.
Without doubt the most important part of the tool kit is track and trace once those numbers are low.