Westminster Politics

[Fluctuation0161]

We aren’t alienating the US.

The point is, it’s ridiculous to take a viewpoint in the past and project it into the future, and claim that as some sort of moral high ground. Things change, the political landscape changes, and the perfect (although horrendous) example is Corona. Decisions made a year ago, 2 years ago, 5 years ago need to be evaluated in today’s climate.

What amuses me about the negotiations with the EU, are those people who will lap up the rhetoric form the EU, and can’t comprehend that it’s two sides who are negotiating, and both trying to save face and project their own interests.

Just as ridiculous as dismissing the possibility that elements within this government may have an incentive to achieve a no deal brexit. Which was the original point before you went on a massive tangent.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

There will be plenty of money to be made for him in the disaster capitalism society he's creating when he's done being PM.

Yep. No doubt he has already lined up his post government job. Just like Grayling.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

The issue is that there are so many that will bash the government no matter what they do. You have the EU who are not necessarily acting in good faith, but in this country we are more than happy to blame our own side and acquiesce to whatever the EU come out with.

These are all just negotiation tactics, and a bit like the transfer window we need to wait until the end to see what the result will be.

I’m certainly not saying we are doing a great job, but let’s also consider that the EU is trying every trick in the book to make it difficult for us to leave on good terms. Their aim is to show the rest of the EU countries that they will be punished for leaving, to prevent a break up. That’s very transparent.

I find it strange so many unquestionably believe Barnier every time over our side.

We can see with our own eyes and our own Tory MP's are saying in parliament that we will break international law.

If anything, the problem is that you are viewing this like a transfer window, but you are blindly supporting your "club".

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

We can see with our own eyes and our own Tory MP's are saying in parliament that we will break international law.

If anything, the problem is that you are viewing this like a transfer window, but you are blindly supporting your "club".

And yet the government easily passed the first stage this week.

There’s a deadline, there’s negotiation, posturing, mixed messaging and 99% of what happens we don’t see. Very much like a transfer window.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

The issue is that there are so many that will bash the government no matter what they do. You have the EU who are not necessarily acting in good faith, but in this country we are more than happy to blame our own side and acquiesce to whatever the EU come out with.

These are all just negotiation tactics, and a bit like the transfer window we need to wait until the end to see what the result will be.

I’m certainly not saying we are doing a great job, but let’s also consider that the EU is trying every trick in the book to make it difficult for us to leave on good terms. Their aim is to show the rest of the EU countries that they will be punished for leaving, to prevent a break up. That’s very transparent.

I find it strange so many unquestionably believe Barnier every time over our side.

The basic questions about the negotiations are missed in the discussion because everyone has picked a side and that is that. For example, is it right to demand the UK gives up its EEZ as a prerequisite for talks about a trade deal. In all honesty the answer to that is probably no but you won't find anyone even mentioning the international law that seeks to circumvent because it is the EU side making that demand.

The GFA does not say the UK has to remain in the EU and any change to border arrangements has to be agreed by all parties but the EU demand for a border in the Irish Sea is a change to border arrangements which doesn't have universal support.

The UK govt has been all over the place on what it wants to do so I wouldn't support them or their approach though.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

The basic questions about the negotiations are missed in the discussion because everyone has picked a side and that is that. For example, is it right to demand the UK gives up its EEZ as a prerequisite for talks about a trade deal. In all honesty the answer to that is probably no but you won't find anyone even mentioning the international law that seeks to circumvent because it is the EU side making that demand.

The GFA does not say the UK has to remain in the EU and any change to border arrangements has to be agreed by all parties but the EU demand for a border in the Irish Sea is a change to border arrangements which doesn't have universal support.

The UK govt has been all over the place on what it wants to do so I wouldn't support them or their approach though.

I agree about people taking sides and sticking to them. This is one of the challenges, in that there’s still a proportion of people in the UK who want to frustrate and delay the process.

In fairness to the government, the two biggest issues for a generation have come at the same time.

The EU is united behind their negotiations, and in wanting to make it as difficult as possible for the UK. The UK is the opposite of United, and this clearly has made it more difficult. At least with a big majority, we have a stronger hand rather than the debacle of having the Tories and the DUP in bed together.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I agree about people taking sides and sticking to them. This is one of the challenges, in that there’s still a proportion of people in the UK who want to frustrate and delay the process.

In fairness to the government, the two biggest issues for a generation have come at the same time.

The EU is united behind their negotiations, and in wanting to make it as difficult as possible for the UK. The UK is the opposite of United, and this clearly has made it more difficult. At least with a big majority, we have a stronger hand rather than the debacle of having the Tories and the DUP in bed together.

The negotiations for the Withdrawal Agreement are over, the UK and the EU have both agreed the terms , signed them and ratified them. To change them is not even possible.

If the UK want a trade deal with the EU , with the USA, with Australia or with Uncle Tom Cobley they will have to accept the terms of that agreement and of the partner they are dealing with. If they don't like it then just go away from the negotiations. Looks like this will be a recurring theme.

What majority the Tories have is completely irrelevant , a stronger hand to do what? What process is being delayed and by whom. Where should the customs border be, the Brexiters were told that the border has to be somewhere because the UK decided to leave the customs union, not the EU chucking them out.
The moronic ignorance of Brexiters will never go away.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

The negotiations for the Withdrawal Agreement are over, the UK and the EU have both agreed the terms , signed them and ratified them. To change them is not even possible.

If the UK want a trade deal with the EU , with the USA, with Australia or with Uncle Tom Cobley they will have to accept the terms of that agreement and of the partner they are dealing with. If they don't like it then just go away from the negotiations. Looks like this will be a recurring theme.

What majority the Tories have is completely irrelevant , a stronger hand to do what? What process is being delayed and by whom. Where should the customs border be, the Brexiters were told that the border has to be somewhere because the UK decided to leave the customs union, not the EU chucking them out.
The moronic ignorance of Brexiters will never go away.

I almost thought you could debate property. Your last sentence shows that you don’t want to.

Resorting to insults just means anything you said previously is easy to dismiss as you have no credibility.

Well done.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I almost thought you could debate property. Your last sentence shows that you don’t want to.

Resorting to insults just means anything you said previously is easy to dismiss as you have no credibility.

Well done.

I hadn't realised you were a Brexiter just a Tory so I wasn't actually referring to you .
But as I never get sensible answers from Brexiters what a surprise!

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

I agree about people taking sides and sticking to them. This is one of the challenges, in that there’s still a proportion of people in the UK who want to frustrate and delay the process.

In fairness to the government, the two biggest issues for a generation have come at the same time.

The EU is united behind their negotiations, and in wanting to make it as difficult as possible for the UK. The UK is the opposite of United, and this clearly has made it more difficult. At least with a big majority, we have a stronger hand rather than the debacle of having the Tories and the DUP in bed together.

That really helps of course. How long it lasts after a second wave of the pandemic and the UK leaving without a deal remains to be seen though as does Biden's love for the GFA post election when his big pharma backers smell a chance of making money selling US drugs into the NHS.

We will have to wait and see. Not much longer now though.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

I hadn't realised you were a Brexiter just a Tory so I wasn't actually referring to you .
But as I never get sensible answers from Brexiters what a surprise!

I didn’t realise we still went around labelling each other and making big assumptions about a yes/ no decision?

Or making assumption and generalisations about what type of person you are based on whether you choose one of three options at the ballot box?

No wonder some people can’t discuss the big topics sensibly.

 

[Buster15]

The negotiations for the Withdrawal Agreement are over, the UK and the EU have both agreed the terms , signed them and ratified them. To change them is not even possible.

If the UK want a trade deal with the EU , with the USA, with Australia or with Uncle Tom Cobley they will have to accept the terms of that agreement and of the partner they are dealing with. If they don't like it then just go away from the negotiations. Looks like this will be a recurring theme.

What majority the Tories have is completely irrelevant , a stronger hand to do what? What process is being delayed and by whom. Where should the customs border be, the Brexiters were told that the border has to be somewhere because the UK decided to leave the customs union, not the EU chucking them out.
The moronic ignorance of Brexiters will never go away.

Completely agree. Those I know who were in favour of leaving the EU continue to do so. And the illusion that they have been convinced of is so ingrained that only when the reality plays out will they come to understand their mistake.
But. They will never admit it.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I didn’t realise we still went around labelling each other and making big assumptions about a yes/ no decision?

Or making assumption and generalisations about what type of person you are based on whether you choose one of three options at the ballot box?

No wonder some people can’t discuss the big topics sensibly.

Why not answer my questions , instead of getting touchy. Why does the UK think the EU will not be united in their approach, the problem is that they think other countries view the EU like the UK does.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Completely agree. Those I know who were in favour of leaving the EU continue to do so. And the illusion that they have been convinced of is so ingrained that only when the reality plays out will they come to understand their mistake.
But. They will never admit it.

How can anyone think that Brexit can possibily be a success in any shape or form - what is this vision that so many still believe in , no-one after nearly five years can describe it and now they think the EU are going to punish them.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Why not answer my questions , instead of getting touchy. Why does the UK think the EU will not be united in their approach, the problem is that they think other countries view the EU like the UK does.

As I said, I’m not going to debate with someone who just reverts to insults and stereotypes.

There are lots of other good posters on here.

 

[FireballXL5]

The faux self-righteous outrage at being 'insulted' is hilarious.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

As I said, I’m not going to debate with someone who just reverts to insults and stereotypes.

There are lots of other good posters on here.

Brilliant, you have no answers as usual . Let me know in six months time how fantasy island is progressing.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Brilliant, you have no answers as usual . Let me know in six months time how fantasy island is progressing.

I’ll debate with other posters, not you because you can’t do it without through insults around.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I’ll debate with other posters, not you because you can’t do it without through insults around.

Tell someone else then , promise I won't look.

 

[Buster15]

How can anyone think that Brexit can possibily be a success in any shape or form - what is this vision that so many still believe in , no-one after nearly five years can describe it and now they think the EU are going to punish them.

Taking back control from the EU is a big one. As is being able to make trade deals with the rest
of the world. But the fact is that because of the way the EU has been blamed for pretty much everything that goes wrong, Boris was preaching to the converted.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Taking back control from the EU is a big one. As is being able to make trade deals with the rest
of the world. But the fact is that because of the way the EU has been blamed for pretty much everything that goes wrong, Boris was preaching to the converted.

Yes but real ones, control of what that wasn't already under their control. The manifesto promised 80% of their trade deals with FTAs within 3 years and as the EU and USA make up about 80% of the UK's trade....
In my book lies don't count so copy and pasting an EU negotiated deal with Japan and adding Stilton cheese , which Japan have not yet signed, doesn't really cut the mustard, so to speak.

 

[finneh]

If I were Boris I'd legalise cannabis in the UK tomorrow just to see if that necessitated a hard border between NI and ROI.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[TheGame]

Response incoming:

 

[FireballXL5]

Now just imagine the reaction if this was a Labour administration...

FinCEN Files: Tory donor Lubov Chernukhin linked to $8m Putin ally funding

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54228079

Been saying it for ages, Putin has Boris by the balls.

 

[Berbasbullet]

Now just imagine the reaction if this was a Labour administration...

FinCEN Files: Tory donor Lubov Chernukhin linked to $8m Putin ally funding

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54228079

Been saying it for ages, Putin has Boris by the balls.

It doesn’t even surprise me anymore, I honestly don’t get how anyone can defend this anymore but they do and I’m sure they will.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

The negotiations for the Withdrawal Agreement are over, the UK and the EU have both agreed the terms , signed them and ratified them. To change them is not even possible.

If the UK want a trade deal with the EU , with the USA, with Australia or with Uncle Tom Cobley they will have to accept the terms of that agreement and of the partner they are dealing with. If they don't like it then just go away from the negotiations. Looks like this will be a recurring theme.

What majority the Tories have is completely irrelevant , a stronger hand to do what? What process is being delayed and by whom. Where should the customs border be, the Brexiters were told that the border has to be somewhere because the UK decided to leave the customs union, not the EU chucking them out.
The moronic ignorance of Brexiters will never go away.

Totally agree. The whole process has been a farce. I'm not even particularly fond of the EU, but the way the UK has conducted itself is a diagrace and will not stand us in good stead when negotiating future deals with other nations. It seems "head in the sand" is the default position for those supporting Brexit at any cost.

The accepted definition of what brexit is has changed so many times, it shows that it is all based on rhetoric. In 2016 we were told it would be impossible that we wouldn't get a deal. Mercedes, BMW etc want to sell us their cars. No deal was out of the question. Now we are teetering on the edge of a no deal brexit and that is being sold to us as a great thing for the nation. Ridiculous.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

The faux self-righteous outrage at being 'insulted' is hilarious.

It really is. Typifies the Brexit negotiation tactics too, ironically.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Totally agree. The whole process has been a farce. I'm not even particularly fond of the EU, but the way the UK has conducted itself is a diagrace and will not stand us in good stead when negotiating future deals with other nations. It seems "head in the sand" is the default position for those supporting Brexit at any cost.

The accepted definition of what brexit is has changed so many times, it shows that it is all based on rhetoric. In 2016 we were told it would be impossible that we wouldn't get a deal. Mercedes, BMW etc want to sell us their cars. No deal was out of the question. Now we are teetering on the edge of a no deal brexit and that is being sold to us as a great thing for the nation. Ridiculous.

Brexit was started from lies and to cover the lies they had to invent more lies and it has snowballed to such a point that they can't even remember which lies they've told.

Even the German car myth was so ridiculous if people just thought about it for 5 minutes or bothered to inform themselves. They will still sell their cars with or without a deal, they might become more expensive for British people , there may be delays, spare parts will take longer to reach dealers etc but a luxury car purchaser won't be so troubled about paying 80k instead of 70k for example.

Of course German car manufacturers would prefer that they could sell their cars without import/export controls but it's only one market.

Whereas the industry in biggest danger is actually the British car manufacturers, who are just about all foreign owned - why keep the factories in the UK if it causes so many problems and delays exporting them. The only reason to keep any there would be for the British market but even then the parts have to cross borders several times to assemble them. Cars are currently the top UK export worldwide - why endanger that?

Even the argument about the UK having individually styled trade deals to suit them better actually shows itself to be a joke with the Japan deal. What it apparently means is they want to sell a few British products worth a few million as well as the normal trade deal the EU negotiated.
But that doesn't mean that the UK have actually sold cornish pasties or stilton cheese to Japan, they have got a concession from Japan to reduce the tariffs on those products but the customers in Japan have still got to want to buy them. In exchange what has been the concession been to Japan, that they can sell more cars to the UK?

But Brexiters knew exactly what they voted for - only they aren't able to say what it is.

 

[Kentonio]

The basic questions about the negotiations are missed in the discussion because everyone has picked a side and that is that. For example, is it right to demand the UK gives up its EEZ as a prerequisite for talks about a trade deal. In all honesty the answer to that is probably no but you won't find anyone even mentioning the international law that seeks to circumvent because it is the EU side making that demand.

The GFA does not say the UK has to remain in the EU and any change to border arrangements has to be agreed by all parties but the EU demand for a border in the Irish Sea is a change to border arrangements which doesn't have universal support.

The UK govt has been all over the place on what it wants to do so I wouldn't support them or their approach though.

No sorry, the EU were not simply insisting that the border had to be in the Irish sea as if it was a demand from their side, it was simply the case that an Irish sea border was the only way that Brexit could conceivably happen without shattering the GFA into a million pieces. The GFA was only possible BECAUSE the UK was in the EU. It created a fudge whereby Republicans in the North could feel part of the Republic and Unionists could feel part of the Union with no meaningful border to disabuse that notion. As soon as you decide that the UK isn't part of the EU there must once again be a border, and the idea that there shouldn't be is even nonsensical to the Brexiter side too. How can you claim to be a totally independent country with control of your own borders while simultaneously demanding that you don't have a border?

The UK government agreed it it, because they had no choice. It was that or put up a border on mainland Ireland and almost certainly restart the conflict. By now trying to renege on that agreement and get rid of the sea border they agreed to, all they're doing is returning everyone to the same quandary they were in back before the withdrawal agreement was negotiated. It's insane because there is nothing new that is going to magically resolve that problem. The only answers are still sea border or land border. I suspect this time however the UK will simply try and fudge and force the EU & Ireland to be the ones to choose to either put up a land border or not, in a cowardly attempt to pass responsibility.

The cost is going to be a hard Brexit though, but then again half the Tory party seems to want that anyway, so it should hardly be a surprise.

 

[sun_tzu]

No sorry, the EU were not simply insisting that the border had to be in the Irish sea as if it was a demand from their side, it was simply the case that an Irish sea border was the only way that Brexit could conceivably happen without shattering the GFA into a million pieces. The GFA was only possible BECAUSE the UK was in the EU. It created a fudge whereby Republicans in the North could feel part of the Republic and Unionists could feel part of the Union with no meaningful border to disabuse that notion. As soon as you decide that the UK isn't part of the EU there must once again be a border, and the idea that there shouldn't be is even nonsensical to the Brexiter side too. How can you claim to be a totally independent country with control of your own borders while simultaneously demanding that you don't have a border?

The UK government agreed it it, because they had no choice. It was that or put up a border on mainland Ireland and almost certainly restart the conflict. By now trying to renege on that agreement and get rid of the sea border they agreed to, all they're doing is returning everyone to the same quandary they were in back before the withdrawal agreement was negotiated. It's insane because there is nothing new that is going to magically resolve that problem. The only answers are still sea border or land border. I suspect this time however the UK will simply try and fudge and force the EU & Ireland to be the ones to choose to either put up a land border or not, in a cowardly attempt to pass responsibility.

The cost is going to be a hard Brexit though, but then again half the Tory party seems to want that anyway, so it should hardly be a surprise.

practically speaking though the onus is on both sides to implement a border isnt it?
I keep hearing that it the UK does not do this they will be open to legal action and potentially economic sanctions so surely the Irish Government face the same dilema dont they - implement the border and risk the GFA or face the same potential legal actions / sanctions

It would be a lot more sensible if the UK did what it had agreed but I dont think thats a likely option (they either fudge a deal that allows both sides to spin a victory or they go hard brexit and say we wont implement a hard border then what do the EU / Ireland do - either implement the border themselves and then probably take a lot of the blame if the GFA collapses or they do nothing (and any legal case they take againt the UK the UK takes the same action against them) - its a mess but would the EU / Ireland implement the border unilaterally?

 

[Cascarino]

practically speaking though the onus is on both sides to implement a border isnt it?

Well said. Curse the Irish for voting for an action without any idea on how to implement it.

 

[sun_tzu]

Well said. Curse the Irish for voting for an action without any idea on how to implement it.

To be fair they have had a long time to plan for this and seem to have more competent leadership than the UK so Im guessing they have a plan / policy in place? (and presumably one that does not break international law?)

 

[Paul the Wolf]

practically speaking though the onus is on both sides to implement a border isnt it?
I keep hearing that it the UK does not do this they will be open to legal action and potentially economic sanctions so surely the Irish Government face the same dilema dont they - implement the border and risk the GFA or face the same potential legal actions / sanctions

It would be a lot more sensible if the UK did what it had agreed but I dont think thats a likely option (they either fudge a deal that allows both sides to spin a victory or they go hard brexit and say we wont implement a hard border then what do the EU / Ireland do - either implement the border themselves and then probably take a lot of the blame if the GFA collapses or they do nothing (and any legal case they take againt the UK the UK takes the same action against them) - its a mess but would the EU / Ireland implement the border unilaterally?

The legal action and economic sanctions are not for not implementing a border on the island of Ireland but not maintaining the international treaty that has been agreed to. I.e. not respecting the fact that the customs border from January 1st is in the Irish Sea and no amount of denying that by the British government changes it. The UK nor the EU can put a customs border on the island of Ireland because that isn't where it is.

 

[sun_tzu]

The legal action and economic sanctions are not for not implementing a border on the island of Ireland but not maintaining the international treaty that has been agreed to. I.e. not respecting the fact that the customs border from January 1st is in the Irish Sea and no amount of denying that by the British government changes it. The UK nor the EU can put a customs border on the island of Ireland because that isn't where it is.

actually that will be down to the how the UK approach it
If they choose to activate the dispute mechanism under the WA prior to deviating in law from the treaty and demand independent arbitration because the EU has acted in bad faith then they would not be bound by the treaty - (or at least thats what Geoffry cox was claiming on a podcast last week) - Personally I still expect some last minute fudge but if not then I suspect legal action is inevitable and in my experience if you get enough lawyers and chuck enough money at it most things are open to interpretation and a long process is ensured ... it sounds a little disingenuous as an argument but what cox claims may well have enough to trigger a several year court case - and then what happens in the meantime?

hopefully its is a huge mess and we can admit we messed up and get round to rejoining asap (if the eu will even have us back)

 

[Paul the Wolf]

actually that will be down to the how the UK approach it
If they choose to activate the dispute mechanism under the WA prior to deviating in law from the treaty and demand independent arbitration because the EU has acted in bad faith then they would not be bound by the treaty - (or at least thats what Geoffry cox was claiming on a podcast last week) - Personally I still expect some last minute fudge but if not then I suspect legal action is inevitable and in my experience if you get enough lawyers and chuck enough money at it most things are open to interpretation and a long process is ensured ... it sounds a little disingenuous as an argument but what cox claims may well have enough to trigger a several year court case - and then what happens in the meantime?

hopefully its is a huge mess and we can admit we messed up and get round to rejoining asap (if the eu will even have us back)

I keep hearing the term bad faith, but what bad faith, another Johnson invention and that has nothing to do with a trade deal, any problems the UK cause ,imagine the problems the UK will have at the other ports if this goes badly especially with a long drawn out court case. Then the EU will punish the UK as Brexiters seem to be desperate for.. But as the Uk are determined to commit suicide anything is possible I suppose.

Edit: Imagine another scenario where the UK say they are not bound by the Withdrawal Agreement.
Boris Johnson's address to the nation: "Dear Brexiters, you know we left the EU on 31st January 2020, well actually we haven't left because nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" Oh the hysteria!

 

[Fluctuation0161]

hopefully its is a huge mess and we can admit we messed up and get round to rejoining asap (if the eu will even have us back)

That is never going to happen.

Not until at least a couple of decades of economic crash for the UK anyway.

 

[sun_tzu]

That is never going to happen.

Not until at least a couple of decades of economic crash for the UK anyway.

I'm going with 2 election cycles before its on the Labour manifesto if brexit is a total shambles

 

[MikeUpNorth]

You want to know the one thing where Britain has real short-term leverage and the EU are actually (mildly) shitting themselves (according to a friend of mine working at/with the ECB)? It's their reliance on London for Euro clearing and the financial stability of the Eurozone. There just isn't the capacity in EU clearing houses to process the scale of transactions needed, and won't be until at least 2022.

Just today the EU confirmed it will have to extend access to UK clearing houses for another 18 months: https://www.reuters.com/article/bri...cessive-reliance-on-uk-clearers-idUSL5N2GI32S

If there is a hard and acrimonious Brexit at the end of the year, would you trust the UK government/Bank of England with this kind of financial nuclear button over EU banks? It's a systemic risk for the EU right now.

 

[F-Red]

You want to know the one thing where Britain has real short-term leverage and the EU are actually (mildly) shitting themselves (according to a friend of mine working at/with the ECB)? It's their reliance on London for Euro clearing and the financial stability of the Eurozone. There just isn't the capacity in EU clearing houses to process the scale of transactions needed, and won't be until at least 2022.

Just today the EU confirmed it will have to extend access to UK clearing houses for another 18 months: https://www.reuters.com/article/bri...cessive-reliance-on-uk-clearers-idUSL5N2GI32S

If there is a hard and acrimonious Brexit at the end of the year, would you trust the UK government/Bank of England with this kind of financial nuclear button over EU banks? It's a systemic risk for the EU right now.

Good post, wouldn't surprise me if this is the Hail Mary pass that Johnson will play at the last minute.