SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

It looks like the Australian government will be making a vaccination a requirement to enter Australia with citizens only being given the option of quarantine at their own expense once travel open up again at some point next year.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coro...ope-news/da6c5c32-324a-4eb8-a50a-924f4a7e4595

 

[Wibble]

thats how it started for me. i tested positive a few days later

How are you feeling now?

 

[Eboue]

mostly back to normal. just a nagging cough

 

[tombombadil]

mostly back to normal. just a nagging cough

Glad to hear that. Hope you recover fully soon.

 

[jymufc20]

thats how it started for me. i tested positive a few days later

Right then, I better book a test. Hope your feeling better soon.

 

[Penna]

My post should’ve said Christmas instead of Christians though. Nobody cares about them.

 

[11101]

It's hard to believe how bad the UK's response to this has been. They're making it up as they go along as this point and I would bet my house the rules will be changed again in the next few weeks. The negative reaction to the latest set has been huge.

When i'm back home over Christmas I'll have a look at what the big countries in Europe are doing and follow that advice.

 

[Penna]

It's hard to believe how bad the UK's response to this has been. They're making it up as they go along as this point and I would bet my house the rules will be changed again in the next few weeks. The negative reaction to the latest set has been huge.

When i'm back home over Christmas I'll have a look at what the big countries in Europe are doing and follow that advice.

I honestly think it would have been so much better to just say "national lockdown remains" and then hope not too many people break the rules. There are still a lot of people who would comply.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's hard to believe how bad the UK's response to this has been. They're making it up as they go along as this point and I would bet my house the rules will be changed again in the next few weeks. The negative reaction to the latest set has been huge.

When i'm back home over Christmas I'll have a look at what the big countries in Europe are doing and follow that advice.

Out of interest, what “big countries” in Europe do you think have done a really good job? It seems to be varying degrees of shit show, other than the Nordics, as far as I can see. And what’s helped the Nordic countries seems to have mainly been low population density, no major transport hubs and a very compliant population rather than superb governance.

Germany’s done ok but has taken a very regional and varied approach. Almost like the US.

 

[11101]

Out of interest, what “big countries” in Europe do you think have done a really good job? It seems to be varying degrees of shit show, other than the Nordics, as far as I can see. And what’s helped the Nordic countries seems to have mainly been low population density, no major transport hubs and a very compliant population rather than superb governance.

Germany’s done ok but has taken a very regional and varied approach. Almost like the US.

Germany is the obvious one, and Spain and especially Italy's response to the first outbreak. Everybody has dropped the ball on the second wave outbreaks, but i'd say almost all have been clearer and more effective in bring it back under control than the UK.

Put it another way, do you think anybody has done a worse job than the UK?

 

[Ananke]

Shock horror. Just another coincidence eh.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

It's hard to believe how bad the UK's response to this has been. They're making it up as they go along as this point and I would bet my house the rules will be changed again in the next few weeks. The negative reaction to the latest set has been huge.

When i'm back home over Christmas I'll have a look at what the big countries in Europe are doing and follow that advice.

Why not just avoid spending time with groups of people in confined spaces with inadequate ventilation. Not sure why you need a government to tell you what to do. The risks are perfectly clear by now. Anyone with common sense knows when they’re taking risks.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Germany is the obvious one, and Spain and especially Italy's response to the first outbreak. Everybody has dropped the ball on the second wave outbreaks, but i'd say almost all have been clearer and more effective in bring it back under control than the UK.

Put it another way, do you think anybody has done a worse job than the UK?

I think the UK delayed too long with the first lockdown (so did Italy, as it happens, but they didn’t get as clear an advance warning) Since then, nobody has done a great job, although some countries doing better than others at putting the brakes on (albeit only after racking up huge case numbers)

I posted this league table yesterday. Lots of countries doing a hell of a lot worse than the UK at at containing the second wave.

 

[Smores]

Why not just avoid spending time with groups of people in confined spaces with inadequate ventilation. Not sure why you need a government to tell you what to do. The risks are perfectly clear by now. Anyone with common sense knows when they’re taking risks.

That's not been the reality at all though, throughout this lockdown a big chunk of people have done whatever the lockdown restrictions allow as if it's encouraged them.

You just can't rely on enough people having common sense unfortunately. It's quite worrying how many seem to have a bit of denial about the whole thing.

It'd be nice if the government at least issued guidance because without it people won't take the necessary precautions and it'll be a normal christmas.

We're isolating before hand then we've booked a couple of separate cottages so inlaws can enjoy key bits of christmas with us but we won't have to have the whole day together. Sounds wonderful from my perspective .

 

[Brwned]

Germany is the obvious one, and Spain and especially Italy's response to the first outbreak. Everybody has dropped the ball on the second wave outbreaks, but i'd say almost all have been clearer and more effective in bring it back under control than the UK.

Put it another way, do you think anybody has done a worse job than the UK?

The important question isn't who has done better but who has done well. And if most countries have not done well by your standards, at this stage in the pandemic, it raises the question of what it means to do well. It either means doing better than the average, or aligning with absolute measures of success.

If the latter, then the question becomes are those absolute measures beyond the capabilities of the participants with the resources they have and environment they operate in (i.e. destined for failure), or are the majority of participants all failing on essential components through voluntary choice (e.g. bad decisions).

If the latter, you need to have a compelling theory why governments across the political spectrum, operating with very different resources, coming into the second wave from very different starting points, and employing a wide range of policies, all ended up failing on those counts.

If you don't have that then it is more likely to indicate a measurement error i.e. you thought it was easier to achieve that target than it really is, it you underestimate the limitations they are operating with.

 

[11101]

I think the UK delayed too long with the first lockdown (so did Italy, as it happens, but they didn’t get as clear an advance warning) Since then, nobody has done a great job, although some countries doing better than others at putting the brakes on (albeit only after racking up huge case numbers)

I posted this league table yesterday. Lots of countries doing a hell of a lot worse than the UK at at containing the second wave.

That doesn't really account for differing timelines though. Second waves started at different times.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That doesn't really account for differing timelines though. Second waves started at different times.

Sure. And don’t you think the respective governments have a role to play in how early the second waves were allowed to get up a head of steam? It certainly seems as though coming out of lockdown needs to be as carefully managed as what happens during it.

On a side note, I think the culture of compliance in any given country is arguably more important than the regulations they’re being asked to comply with. So outcomes don’t always directly reflect the quality of the government guidance.

 

[Tibs]

Imagine we get a no deal brexit on top of this

 

[11101]

Sure. And don’t you think the respective governments have a role to play in how early the second waves were allowed to get up a head of steam? It certainly seems as though coming out of lockdown needs to be as carefully managed as what happens during it.

On a side note, I think the culture of compliance in any given country is arguably more important than the regulations they’re being asked to comply with. So outcomes don’t always directly reflect the quality of the government guidance.

I actually think the emergence of outbreaks is the one thing governments really can't control. Most countries were out of lockdown for a long time before second waves began. It's been total luck of the draw so far.

 

[redshaw]

Italy aren't doing well at all.

Belgium have brought an extremely bad situation down to the equivalent of 16-20k cases and 800 deaths per day of France or UK populations, which is still very bad. Maybe take a moment to understand what 25k cases and 300 deaths would be that Belgium were doing.

Only country out of the bigger nations to have done well is Germany and that's with the first and second wave from a region of 80 million, it's impressive by European standards but worldwide Germany is poor as well.

Cases have ballooned again across Europe with people wearing masks. People look at East Asian nations and think mask wearing is a silver bullet, but there's been enough mask wearing on mainland Europe to say no it's not and it's what you do beyond the public act of wearing a mask, how sensible are you around others in your circle of contacts. The most well behaved, organized and experienced that are in well populated busy areas are in East Asia. Germany is probably the closest we have with that mentality, as a general group.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I actually think the emergence of outbreaks is the one thing governments really can't control. Most countries were out of lockdown for a long time before second waves began. It's been total luck of the draw so far.

Not sure about that. When you see the same countries getting absolutely hammered twice (while others deal with both waves better) you have to think what’s going on is more than just bad luck. Lessons not being learned anyway.

 

[Maticmaker]

Anyone with common sense knows when they’re taking risks.

Unfortunately common sense is often anything but and that lets out a large proportion of the population!

 

[Wibble]

I actually think the emergence of outbreaks is the one thing governments really can't control. Most countries were out of lockdown for a long time before second waves began. It's been total luck of the draw so far.

Except a second wave was totally and inevitably predictable. That it occured a few weeks apart in different countries means little in such dynamic systems.

 

[Judas]

Everyone knew back in March/April that we'd be facing this sort of situation around this time of year, its not a sneak attack, we had the time and resources to plan and strategise.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

That's not been the reality at all though, throughout this lockdown a big chunk of people have done whatever the lockdown restrictions allow as if it's encouraged them.

You just can't rely on enough people having common sense unfortunately. It's quite worrying how many seem to have a bit of denial about the whole thing.

It'd be nice if the government at least issued guidance because without it people won't take the necessary precautions and it'll be a normal christmas.

We're isolating before hand then we've booked a couple of separate cottages so inlaws can enjoy key bits of christmas with us but we won't have to have the whole day together. Sounds wonderful from my perspective .

I know plenty of people don’t have common sense. My brother‘s wife seems to think if the government say it’s OK then somehow she’ll be safe. Their family is having a big Christmas. I think most posters in here are able to see things as they though. You can have 12 in a house and you’d be absolutely fine more likely than not . A minority won’t be, however. I guess it’s how much risk you want to take given your personal circumstances and geographical location. I won’t be looking to the government for advice anyway.

My close family don't want to get together in door at all which makes me happy. We’re planning on going on some family walks over the period instead.

 

[11101]

Italy aren't doing well at all.

Belgium have brought an extremely bad situation down to the equivalent of 16-20k cases and 800 deaths per day of France or UK populations, which is still very bad. Maybe take a moment to understand what 25k cases and 300 deaths would be that Belgium were doing.

Only country out of the bigger nations to have done well is Germany and that's with the first and second wave from a region of 80 million, it's impressive by European standards but worldwide Germany is poor as well.

Cases have ballooned again across Europe with people wearing masks. People look at East Asian nations and think mask wearing is a silver bullet, but there's been enough mask wearing on mainland Europe to say no it's not and it's what you do beyond the public act of wearing a mask, how sensible are you around others in your circle of contacts. The most well behaved, organized and experienced that are in well populated busy areas are in East Asia. Germany is probably the closest we have with that mentality.

The numbers in Italy don't tell the full story. In the first wave the majority of cases were in one region, around 75% of the total IIRC, and it was rough. This time that region accounts for less than 20%. The total countrywide case numbers are the same but they are spread out this time and the stress on the system is much lower.

We learned from last time it takes about a month before lockdowns have an effect, as you have to wait for it to incubate and transmit around everybody in a household. The health services predicted peak deaths on 10th December.

 

[redshaw]

The numbers in Italy don't tell the full story. In the first wave the majority of cases were in one region, around 75% of the total IIRC, and it was rough. This time that region accounts for less than 20%. The total countrywide case numbers are the same but they are spread out this time and the stress on the system is much lower.

We learned from last time it takes about a month before lockdowns have an effect, as you have to wait for it to incubate and transmit around everybody in a household. The health services predicted peak deaths on 10th December.

Whether it's more spread out or not isn't the point, it's varied in the UK and France too. More deaths in London or Lombardy first and second time around less. We're talking about deaths in single digits that have gone up to 600-800 and in Italy's case over 800 and may peak higher, who knows. Currently it's bad enough.

 

[Penna]

Whether it's more spread out or not isn't the point, it's varied in the UK and France too. More deaths in London or Lombardy first and second time around less. We're talking about about deaths in single digits up to 600-800 and in Italy's case over 800 and may peak higher, who knows. Currently it's bad enough.

Italy has 17% of the population over 70 years old. The average in other European countries is around 10%. The average age for deaths from Covid in Italy is 80 years old. Only 1.1% of Italian deaths from Covid have been people under 50 years old.

That's a significant reason why we're getting high numbers of deaths - Italy has loads of oldies.

 

[golden_blunder]

Right then, I better book a test. Hope your feeling better soon.

Good luck JY

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Italy has 17% of the population over 70 years old. The average in other European countries is around 10%. The average age for deaths from Covid in Italy is 80 years old. Only 1.1% of Italian deaths from Covid have been people under 50 years old.

That's a significant reason why we're getting high numbers of deaths - Italy has loads of oldies.

Obviously doesn’t help that your cases per 100k is the sixth highest in Europe and 14 day incidence increasing at the fifth highest rate.

With an elderly population there was all the more reason to try and stop the virus getting out of hand like that.

 

[golden_blunder]

I think the UK delayed too long with the first lockdown (so did Italy, as it happens, but they didn’t get as clear an advance warning) Since then, nobody has done a great job, although some countries doing better than others at putting the brakes on (albeit only after racking up huge case numbers)

I posted this league table yesterday. Lots of countries doing a hell of a lot worse than the UK at at containing the second wave.

Veiled attempt at showing off Ireland

 

[golden_blunder]

Imagine we get a no deal brexit on top of this

Still a high possibility

 

[TheReligion]

Right then, I better book a test. Hope your feeling better soon.

Hope you're okay mate

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Veiled attempt at showing off Ireland

As @bazalini would say!

Ireland’s done a great job at getting the numbers down but at what cost? My heart breaks for the hospitality industry. So tough getting the balance right. Nordics aside, maybe only Germany has managed this? Although it helps that they’re incredibly wealthy with a phenomenally well resourced health service (and they love following rules!)

 

[jojojo]

Italy has 17% of the population over 70 years old. The average in other European countries is around 10%. The average age for deaths from Covid in Italy is 80 years old. Only 1.1% of Italian deaths from Covid have been people under 50 years old.

That's a significant reason why we're getting high numbers of deaths - Italy has loads of oldies.

Not that different to the UK - around 15% of the population are over 70. The average age for covid deaths (on/before mid-October) was 83.

 

[TheGame]

Does anyone know of the requirements of how to inform anyone if you've had a positive test? I have a colleague at work whose neighbour tested positive but she hasn't been notified by test and trace. I'm not sure if she has the app however should test and trace be automatically informed if she a positive test?

 

[Infra-red]

I hadn't noticed that in amongst all of the announcements on tiers and Christmas bubbles, Johnson also sneaked through this change on support bubbles:

The government says it will be expanding the eligibility of support bubbles from 2 December to help families with very young children or people with continuous care needs, meaning households can form a support bubble with another household, if at least one of them has:

1. a child under 1 (regardless of how many other adults are in the household)
2. a child under 5 with a disability that requires continuous care (regardless of how many other adults are in the household)
3. a single adult carer (living with any additional adults in the household that have a disability and need continuous care)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52637354

So as long as a household has a child under the age of one in it (regardless of how many adults/other children are also there), that household can now join with another household, of any size, in a single support bubble. These combined households will only count as a single household for the purposes of the "three household" Christmas bubble plan, which will obviously benefit Boris and Carrie directly (how nice for them!).

A friend from work is planning to make maximum use of this change. He, his wife and their nine month old are currently living with his in-laws. His brother, his wife and their two kids are living with her parents. From 2 December, the two households can bubble up. That's eight adults and three kids, which will only count as a single household for the purposes of Christmas. Collectively, they can start searching for the two other households they want to incorporate into their Christmas bubbles for the 23-27 December period.

If my friend wanted to really push the envelope, he might even choose to form a separate Christmas bubble from his in-laws, even while he continues to live with them:

Forming a different Christmas bubble to the people you live with normally
You are allowed to form a different Christmas bubble from the people you live with normally. If you have chosen to form a different Christmas bubble from other people in your household - the people you live with normally - you should take additional steps to prevent the opportunity for the virus to spread within your household, and between bubbles.

This might (but does not have to) include:

• staying with another member of your Christmas bubble between 23 and 27 December where possible
• taking extra precautions such as cleaning surfaces and contact points like door handles and letting in as much fresh air as possible after someone has visited your household

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...everybody-is-not-in-the-same-christmas-bubble

So you are free to be included in a different three household bubble to the people you are currently living with, even while you continue to live with them. Both my friend and his in-laws would therefore be free to bubble with two other households each (all the while living in the same house and with him still being in a support bubble with his brother, sister-in-law, her parents and his kids via the support bubble change on 2 December). That is now probably 30+ adults and god knows how many kids, frequenting maybe one/two houses continuously for a period of five days - not a single rule would be broken, you'd just be advised to clean the door handles a bit. It's nonsensical!

 

[jojojo]

Does anyone know of the requirements of how to inform anyone if you've had a positive test? I have a colleague at work whose neighbour tested positive but she hasn't been notified by test and trace. I'm not sure if she has the app however should test and trace be automatically informed if she a positive test?

No. Not unless her neighbour (when asked by test and trace) describes her as a close contact who she met with from 2 days before symptoms started (or two days before the test if that was done for some other reason) or any time subsequently.

According to the government advice:
For the purposes of contact tracing and isolation, however, ‘close contact’ means having face-to-face contact with someone less than a metre away (even if a face-covering or face-mask is worn) or being within 2 metres of an infected person for 15 minutes or more.

 

[FireballXL5]

Covid tiers: Boris Johnson says measures will bring clarity

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55097182

 

[TheGame]

No. Not unless her neighbour (when asked by test and trace) describes her as a close contact who she met with from 2 days before symptoms started (or two days before the test if that was done for some other reason) or any time subsequently.

According to the government advice:
For the purposes of contact tracing and isolation, however, ‘close contact’ means having face-to-face contact with someone less than a metre away (even if a face-covering or face-mask is worn) or being within 2 metres of an infected person for 15 minutes or more.

Thanks, I've checked with my colleague and Test and Trace haven't been in touch with the lady who tested postivie at all.