Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Jippy]

I don't understand why talks wouldn't continue even if no deal is reached.

Why would the UK not want as many trade deals as possible. I thought these talks were accelerated to avoid the UK crashing out.

Maybe I've misunderstood but it seems silly to get to 90-98% done and then decide to stop altogether because it wasn't finished this year.

If that 5% or whatever outstanding boils down to fundamental ideological differences, then how do you move forward? It's clearly bonkers if you're crowing about a tiny trade deal with Cabo Verde while ignoring the trading monolith that accounts for half of your economy next door though.

The FT has been running this feature prominently for the last couple of days. I won't post the whole thing so they don't hound Niall, but it uses the TTIP example @JPRouve mentioned, along with a couple of others.

The rationality of a no-deal Brexit

Indeed, it’s not necessarily obvious to each side, particularly the Brits, where their own red lines are. Johnson doesn’t know how his headbanging Brexiter backbenchers or the Labour opposition will react to one deal or another.

But the point about rational failure still stands. Johnson might genuinely believe the LPF provisions are unconscionable vassalage, or that a nation stands or falls by the size of its herring fleet. Or he might be channelling some weird hybrid of Kamal Nath and Winston Churchill and has made the political calculation he would prefer to stand defiantly alone and doesn’t want a deal at all.

If the EU-UK talks genuinely do break down over fish quotas, or because Johnson actively wants to crash out, it will tell us a lot about dysfunctional trade preferences. But it won’t necessarily mean that the negotiators are ignorant or inept. If we had to guess, we’d still say a deal is likely. But if talks collapse, it’s entirely possible that that’s the rational thing to happen. Terrifying, isn’t it?

https://www.ft.com/content/c6ae94cc-cc21-4a07-93b9-29aa940163ef

 

[Brwned]

What makes you think that?

Oh no I don't, that's just the UK line that's came directly from the government and its supporters in the mainstream media. Been building up for a while. That's their proactive defence for why things aren't working out.

The EU are being mean, not in a tough negotiator kind of way, but in a borderline unethical way. And it's turned into a nationalist statement when they say that the EU are doing this because they don't seem to recognise we've left, we are sovereign, they are acting like we're still under their control and will agree to their dictates.

There's grains of truth that mostly cover up the fact the UK are in a weak negotiating position and can't generate a good agreement, they now accept the EU don't need them as much as Brexiteers believe they do, and so it needs to be spun into the EU not agreeing with our entirely reasonable and gentlemanly requests.

But there's also a lot of misinformation about complicated details that I can't be bothered reading in depth, so I dont fully understand the specifics they're arguing over. I just know that's how they're spinning it.

 

[UweBein]

The poll is tight!

I am flabbergasted by the proportion of people still expecting a deal. A deal (for 1st January) is already off the table.
Neither the UK nor the EU want to admit it right now, because of the potentially negative PR.

 

[JPRouve]

If that 5% or whatever outstanding boils down to fundamental ideological differences, then how do you move forward? It's clearly bonkers if you're crowing about a tiny trade deal with Cabo Verde while ignoring the trading monolith that accounts for half of your economy next door though.

The FT has been running this feature prominently for the last couple of days. I won't post the whole thing so they don't hound Niall, but it uses the TTIP example @JPRouve mentioned, along with a couple of others.

The rationality of a no-deal Brexit



https://www.ft.com/content/c6ae94cc-cc21-4a07-93b9-29aa940163ef

I fully agree with the part that you quoted. People need to understand that any deal isn't a good idea either and that each side can have rational divergencies that can't be easily amended. Now the issue for the UK is that they need a deal with the EU while the EU could and should have a deal with the UK but doesn't need it, at least not immediately.

All of that comes down to what I mentioned earlier in the thread 2024 should have been the brexit target but by trying to rush things and play political games everyone put itself in a bad situation.

 

[Smores]

Isn't this the WA we already had agreed?

We've just removed the offending matters our side, so less an agreement and more a U turn?

 

[calodo2003]

The poll is tight!

When do the 300A vote dumps occur?

 

[FireballXL5]

Isn't this the WA we already had agreed?

We've just removed the offending matters our side, so less an agreement and more a U turn?

Yep, the one Boris signed and then reneged on.

And meanwhile, in Brexit Dividend land...

Brexit: Fears of food supply disruption growing, MPs told

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55230463

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Isn't this the WA we already had agreed?

We've just removed the offending matters our side, so less an agreement and more a U turn?

"We have now agreed with the EU that the UK will no longer break international law"

 

[horsechoker]

"We have now agreed with the EU that the UK will no longer break international law"

"we are going to break the law unless you give us what we want"

"no you aren't"

"we aren't going to break the law, now give us what we want"

 

[Paul the Wolf]

"we are going to break the law unless you give us what we want"

"no you aren't"

"we aren't going to break the law, now give us what we want"

Or at least until the ERG threaten to break Boris's legs.

 

[Jippy]

Brexiters, look what you forced this man to do!

Married senior government lawyer, 55, who took 'upskirt' pictures of woman on the Tube AVOIDS being struck off after blaming stress of working 80-hour weeks planning for Brexit

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...DS-struck-blaming-Brexit-planning-stress.html

 

[Smores]

Brexiters, look what you forced this man to do!

Married senior government lawyer, 55, who took 'upskirt' pictures of woman on the Tube AVOIDS being struck off after blaming stress of working 80-hour weeks planning for Brexit

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...DS-struck-blaming-Brexit-planning-stress.html

I'll be very very vague but my missus dealt with an issue with this guy at his new employment

 

[Jippy]

I'll be very very vague but my missus dealt with an issue with this guy at his new employment

Is he still employed? The 'his wife was ill at the time' defence is arguably worse than the Brexit one.

 

[JPRouve]

@horsechoker I completely forgot to mention something when answering your question. People need to keep in mind that in general trade deals are done in a context of convergence meaning that the current deal is supposed to be the base for a potential deeper relationship but in the case of Brexit we are in a context of divergence, the UK decided that they wanted to be gradually farther from the EU/EEA and that makes almost everything more complicated in particular when it comes to governance and LPF clauses because both sides know that they most likely don't have compatible projects.

 

[Smores]

Is he still employed? The 'his wife was ill at the time' defence is arguably worse than the Brexit one.

Yeah he is, don't think it was anything that bad to be fair just funny seeing it pop up on the daily mail. Not for him though i imagine, he should definitely change his name

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Yes. I do understand that and I agree with you about the forthcoming mountain of problems.
But we made a fundamental mistake in 2016 for a whole host of reasons.
We are just going to have to try and make the best out of what is going to be an extremely difficult future whether there is a trade deal or (heaven forbid) not.
Any conjecture about how the referendum would go now is meaningless, in my view. The gullible are still gullible.

Oh yeah, I wouldn't describe it as the wistful conjecture of remainers.

It's more about considering the impact of the vote and if people who voted Brexit will change their mind.

Regarding the lies, I wonder how many people will never re engage with politics again after voting Brexit and believing the hype.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that real GDP will be 1.5 per cent lower in five years than its current central GDP assumption if London and Brussels do not strike a deal.

Important but not half the economy.

Or as the guy says in Margin Call this is where it becomes a projection.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[sun_tzu]

Regarding the lies, I wonder how many people will never re engage with politics again after voting Brexit and believing the hype.

Ive not seen the stats but I think just over 72% of the population voted in the referendum ad the turnout in the last election was 68%
so probably not that many is my gut feel

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[Rajma]

The deal will be reached in the months of January/February when the brexit realities will come down in full colors and the pressure will mount on the British side. EU know this, UK can bluff all they want.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Wonder why I get the impression that he doesn't know what he's agreed to.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

 

[Smores]

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that real GDP will be 1.5 per cent lower in five years than its current central GDP assumption if London and Brussels do not strike a deal.

Important but not half the economy.

Or as the guy says in Margin Call this is where it becomes a projection.

Important to note that's on top of the GDP hit from a Brexit deal which was around 4%. At least I'm fairly sure it is.

It sounds like small numbers of course but that's a very real hit and represents a lot of jobs lost.

 

[sun_tzu]

Ahhh a meeting on Wednesday so Ursula can take it to the summit on Thursday and the EU leaders can decide the fate of sovereign Britain ... take back control (so we can give it to macron)... well played brexiteers

 

[Adisa]

Even the briefings are all over the place.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Ive not seen the stats but I think just over 72% of the population voted in the referendum ad the turnout in the last election was 68%
so probably not that many is my gut feel

4% is quite a significant difference with regard to Brexit, if you recall.

The lies have not fully materialised yet. Too early to say.

 

[Jippy]

Another day, another Brexit-backing billionaire who has since moved abroad reneged on a promise to build their new factory in the UK.

Ineos boss opts to build 'British' heir to Land Rover Defender in France
Vocal Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe vowed to make new Grenadier 4x4 in Bridgend but has now bought car plant at Hambach

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france

 

[JPRouve]

Another day, another Brexit-backing billionaire who has since moved abroad reneged on a promise to build their new factory in the UK.

Ineos boss opts to build 'British' heir to Land Rover Defender in France
Vocal Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe vowed to make new Grenadier 4x4 in Bridgend but has now bought car plant at Hambach

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france

To be fair Ratcliffe delocalized his own self, so it's only natural that his businesses follow.

 

[Wibble]

How about a "The magic 8 ball says" option on the poll?

 

[golden_blunder]

As you have placed an order on Amazon.co.uk and selected an EU delivery address in the past, we wanted to let you know that from 1 January 2021, when the Brexit transition period ends, you’ll see some changes when you shop on Amazon.co.ukand select an EU delivery address. These changes could include:

- VAT (or the regional equivalent, if applicable, https://www.amazon.co.uk/vatrates) being due in the country of delivery, or your package may be subject to customs duties, taxes and fees (“Import Fees”)
- the collection of VAT, or an estimation of Import Fees (“Import Fee Deposit” https://www.amazon.co.uk/ifd), which may result in a price change at checkout.

brexit wankers

 

[MikeUpNorth]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-on-supermarket-supplies-to-northern-ireland

Sounds like a sensible compromise to not require full checks on goods going into NI from January.

 

[africanspur]

Another day, another Brexit-backing billionaire who has since moved abroad reneged on a promise to build their new factory in the UK.

Ineos boss opts to build 'British' heir to Land Rover Defender in France
Vocal Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe vowed to make new Grenadier 4x4 in Bridgend but has now bought car plant at Hambach

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france

Difficult for me to articulate how much I hate hypocritical twats like this who've led us down this terrible path.

 

[Eendracht maakt macht]

Another day, another Brexit-backing billionaire who has since moved abroad reneged on a promise to build their new factory in the UK.

Ineos boss opts to build 'British' heir to Land Rover Defender in France
Vocal Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe vowed to make new Grenadier 4x4 in Bridgend but has now bought car plant at Hambach

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france

And people still don’t see it. Mindblowing.

 

[Smores]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-on-supermarket-supplies-to-northern-ireland

Sounds like a sensible compromise to not require full checks on goods going into NI from January.

A win-win really, the EU have got the sensible transition arrangements they wanted and the UK gets to downplay brexit impact when these problems don't occur day 1.

Gove trying to pretend there's no border again this morning

 

[Paul the Wolf]

brexit wankers

It will be the same for UK people buying goods from Amazon, or any other company for products from the EU. One of thousand of things these idiots voted for which they previously took for granted.

 

[Jippy]

Difficult for me to articulate how much I hate hypocritical twats like this who've led us down this terrible path.

I'd use him as a crash test dummy in the new Land Rover and test the power of the new Dyson cleaner by seeing if it will suck out his rectum if you stick it up his arse.
These dishonest, arrogant enablers should at least be stripped of their knighthoods.

 

[Penna]

brexit wankers

I got the same message, I often buy from Amazon UK for delivery in Italy. Amazon Italia doesn't have as good a range of things.

It's all very depressing, plus the pound and the euro are virtually the same value now. Ah well, it's better living in Italy than in England, that's for sure.

 

[JPRouve]

I'd use him as a crash test dummy in the new Land Rover and test the power of the new Dyson cleaner by seeing if it will suck out his rectum if you stick it up his arse.
These dishonest, arrogant enablers should at least be stripped of their knighthoods.

You have to appreciate the audacity though. Painting the EU has a bad thing for your country and immediately leave that country and move your businesses in the EU after the referendum took your country out of the EU.