Sorry I don't have time to read through dozens of pages but could somebody please confirm to me that these vacancies have efficacy against this more infectius strain of covid? 
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Sorry I don't have time to read through dozens of pages but could somebody please tell me that these vacancies have efficacy against this more infectius strain of covid?
Whilst scientists won’t say something definitely does something without it being studied, they have said there is no reason to believe it wouldn’t
feck, I didn't think of that
Case rate, potentially not, but you shouldn't be solely looking at cases in isolation. The motivation for the restrictions is all related to ICU and hospital capacity, the stricter the measure should give an indication as to the severity of the capacity issues. Wales had last week one day where they had 10 free ICU beds across the whole country. So they can balance an increase of case rate, as long as the hospital's capacity is in a healthy status.
The transmission pattern for the tier 4 areas, has grown at an extremely sharp rate over the past week. You can't see the data in one or two days due to the fact that the current turn around time on tests is about 3.1 days and increasing daily. So in reality the decisions being made on Friday/Saturday is based off tests that were taken on Tuesday at the latest.
Okay thank you. We can all hope.
It's tough, I would certainly speak to the airlines to see what options. You could re-route to a country where they haven't banned travel and fly into the UK that way?
Not meeting people, paying the slightest heed to Boris?
Yeah true. It's for my fiance. She is on a fiance visa and visiting her family before moving here. She is due to come on 10 Jan and I know India hasn't banned entry/exit or BA have made no changes but I'm worried it will be a chain reaction with one country after another
You can have personal responsibility and at the same time have government responsibility. Much of society is based on both being a reality but it's clear why some want no responsibility on the government right now.
So 35,000 infected today, without any error like a few days ago.
Chances it will go up to 50,000 by Christmas day? Especially with all the moving around in the last 24 hours..
Chances it will go up to 50,000 by Christmas day? Especially with all the moving around in the last 24 hours..
There is a backlog in today's reporting, 8.4k cases dropped in that weren't included in Wednesday's number.
Beautifully put.
The other thing is the mRNA vaccines are relatively easy to adapt so we have good reason to believe that if this a minor adjustment to the spike protein that changes the immune response, we can just make a minor change to the mRNA to match it. It wouldn't be anything like starting from 0 again. We adapt the flu virus every year on similar principles, and this technology is easier to adjust. Costs a fair bit of money and time but not something to despair about.
Yeah I gathered that at worst we wouldn't have to start from scratch.
2000 patients admitted to hospital and the total is climbing all the time. We'll probably see daily deaths rise a lot more in the coming weeks.
With the new possible strain and hospitals near the limit it's hard to not see why the whole country is not under tier 4 to limit the spread as it will be out there across the UK and I wonder when "elite sport" will be stopped.
With the new possible strain and hospitals near the limit it's hard to not see why the whole country is not under tier 4 to limit the spread as it will be out there across the UK and I wonder when "elite sport" will be stopped.
Both Grandparents just arrived back from their first jab. Second one scheduled for 10th January.
Blimey, I always thought you were over 60 yourself. Good luck to your gandparents anyway.
Not sure what to think of that... My parents aren't even 60+!
1,500 every hour. No health system can tolerate that. Especially when the majority and in the south east. We have gone from euphoria when the vaccine was approved to despair in a few weeks.
This is very far from over.
France have banned all travel and people from the UK for 48hrs including all accompanied freight by road, sea, air or rail. Dover blockages will continue.
So I listened and Susan Hopkins was much clearer about that. It was definitely not understood in September or October.
So PHE confirming that only in December did they pay particular attention to the cluster with this strain, and only this week did they even start to understand the transmissibility of the virus. And they still only have a limited understanding. The 70% figure from that modelling is based on quite flimsy evidence. They have good reason to believe it is more transmissible but the number ascribed to it is just based on the rate of spread of this virus vs. other ones, controlling for no other factors in a limited period of time. That's kind of silly. Maybe they are scaremongering a bit. But the higher viral load explantion for being more infectious does make sense.
Just goes to show how easy things are misunderstood, misinformation is spread and blame is readily attributed.
Flight bans, travel bans, London locked down all because this strain is more contagious?
Feels like some other shit is going on that they're not telling us about
Feels like some other shit is going on that they're not telling us about
You make it sound like a small thing.
Apparently the french ban is for all flux, there is no way it last a month. The UK needs supplies.
I’m quite baffled Poland didn’t close its borders and didn’t cancel the flights from UK yet, seems like another ridiculous and late decision from these incompetent bunch. Got tested and arrived here for Christmas from Europe easily, but considering the number of Poles living in UK I am already looking forward to the drama that will unravel in upcoming days.
It's already in Europe, its been weeks / months since we mapped the new L variant and all across Europe there has been spikes.
We (British) and the Dutch have been runing sequence testing for a while.
Watching the news now...and they're suggesting that it could be 71% more contagious, and it could increase the R rate by up 0.9
That was posted before the French announcement, I don't expect freight to be stopped for any longer than 48hrs. A travel ban I could see lasting a month for people travelling for either business/leisure.
France, Belgium, Holland, and now Turkey shutting borders to UK for at least 2 days.
I suspect by the morning all of Europe will have shut its doors to us
I suspect by the morning all of Europe will have shut its doors to us
Explains the reaction, they have always been petrified about the health services not been able to treat the ill, this would surely do it if true, which does seem a strech it has to be said.
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Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Israel, Iran and Bulgaria have all announced a ban on flights to varied extents with the UK.
They absolutely do not have the evidence to suggest that with any conviction. It's like their modelling that suggested 2m people could be hospitalised. Too many assumptions built into too limited a model to make these statements without huge caveats. You can talk to epidemiologists that way because they will know how to contextualise the numbers and their reliability but I can't see how this is good public health messaging, unless its only goal is to cause mass fear. The tests next week could very easily provide a completely different pair of numbers. The direction is reasonable to communicate but the specificity is miscommunicated.
I hope you are right, I hope it's much less than 75%.
Because with 75% or 71% more infections I don't see how at anyone point we'd have had the virus under control
I hope you are right, I hope it's much less than 75%.
Because with 75% or 71% more infections I don't see how at anyone point we'd have had the virus under control
The number 0.9 to me didn't sound right because I'm sure the PM said 0.4 yesterday. I can see where the breakdown in communication is. This comes from Nervtag's meeting minutes that were framed for a particular audience, and the media are reporting on it very, very badly if the takeaway people are getting is it will increase things by 0.9.
Their esimates range from 0.4 to 0.9 and it's based on correlation studies which "suggest" those numbers. The media are bad at science reporting in general but I think this is particularly bad. These correlation studies and models are very limited, and it's at a very early stage. We conclusively do not know what impact it will have on the r, they just had to provide their best estimate so the PM could make a call pre-Christmas.
Their key conclusion is that they have "moderate" confidence it demonstrates a substantial increase. They by definition have significantly lower confidence in the precise estimates, and presumably high confidence that it demonstrates some kind of increase, but it may not be significant.
For some reason we're focusing exclusively on the grave news. There are plenty of other details that paint a more complex picture. For example, they know someone from the UK with that virus strain brought it to Australia. Presumably they used a form of transport that exposed them to other people on the journey, and after the journey. No-one else got infected by it. It isn't some kind of super-strain.
If it increased the r rate by 0.4 then some of the measures imposed during the lockdown were estimated to have reduced the r rate by that amount too. No catastrophes. Maybe if you close schools temporarily you achieve a kind of equilibrium.
Have the Nightingale Hospitals been opened yet? Not heard a thing about them.
They're still open.
It's not childish. When you are dealing with large groups of people, you have to treat them as exactly that. Some people are stupid, some people are selfish, some people are going through different struggles to others. Some people need to do different things to cope or survive to what others do. You can't even have a classroom of people without a few who won't listen or do as they're asked, or who need extra support, never mind an entire country.
You're not going to achieve or change anything by sniping at the actions of people who you know literally nothing about and have no control over. You might get somewhere though by holding the government to account for changing the goalposts every five minutes and generally making it much more difficult than it should be for anyone to follow the part sof the guidance that are actually important.
Transport to and from the UK halted at midnight tonight, does that include the vaccine's?
Eurotunnel said trains would still be running services from France to the UK that were vital for medical supplies and other essential goods. A spokesman said: “Eurotunnel recognises the importance of combatting the spread of coronavirus and we will be implementing the measures as we have done throughout the pandemic.”