So you centrist folk have joined us now in bashing the media and voters? Didn't take long 
Westminster Politics
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
think the point is that labours vote is polling not far off the same... the conservative vote is polling not far off their previous vote plus the brexit vote ... if there had been no large brexit party vote then the conservatives might have won this in 2019
Personally i think not that many people switch direct from labour to conservative but those that did vote brexit or another party last time may well now find it easier to vote conservative this time
That said we are talking about a constituency who hung a monkey because they thought he was talkig french so how easy it is to transpose this over other constituencies is hard to say
but for sure where the brexit party vote goes to in the next general election will probably be key in several constituencies (perhaps farrage and fox will team up and form some politcal super (cnutish) party and retain a lot of the votes - but if not who these split (not voting or moving to one of the traditional big 2) will be pretty important
Yeah my bad just misread it.
Although I would guess the Brexit Party has maybe acted as a stepping stone to bringing former labour people over to the tories.
In 2015 the split was like this
Lab 35.6% - UKIP/Cons 48.9%
2017
Lab 52.5% - UKIP/Cons 45.73%
2019
Lab 37.7% - BP/Cons 54.2%
The disappearance of the BP and irrelevance of UKIP is a big problem for Labour. I'd imagine this will be repeated in at least a few more constituencies.
I agree with your conclusion, but combining the Tory/UKIP/Brexit Party votes hides half the story. Relatively few voters are switching directly between Labour and the Tories up here. The key demographic are the 10k people who voted UKIP in 2015 and Brexit Party in 2019 but who largely came in for Labour in 2017. What Labour really need to look at is why a chunk of their traditional base who came down 3:1 in favour of Labour in 2017 are now looking to come down 9:1 in favour of the Tories. The irrelevance of UKIP and absence of the Brexit Party weren't an issue for Labour in 2017.
Aside from that, Labour's creeping issue up here for the last 30 years has been demographic change in and around post-industrial areas - notably the influx of commuters and retirees and the exodus of young people. It's perverse that the Tories fecking over people who live in small towns actually helps them electorally, but that's how it is, and Labour in government only have themselves to blame for failing to address it.
I think just the four (votes and % are for the Brexit Party in 2019)
| Constituency | Region | 2016 Brexit vote (%) | Winning party in 2017 | Winning party in 2019 | Candidate | Votes | % | Position | Margin with winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley East | South Yorkshire | 70.7 | Labour | Labour | Jim Ferguson | 11,112 | 29.2 | 2nd | 8.4 |
| Barnsley Central | South Yorkshire | 68.3 | Labour | Labour | Victoria Felton | 11,233 | 30.4 | 2nd | 9.7 |
| Hartlepool | County Durham, North East | 69.6 | Labour | Labour | Richard Tice | 10,603 | 25.8 | 3rd | 11.9 |
| Doncaster North | South Yorkshire | 70.0 | Labour | Labour | Andy Stewart | 8,294 | 20.4 | 3rd | 18.3 |
| Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford | West Yorkshire | 69.3 | Labour | Labour | Deneice Florence-Jukes | 8,032 | 16.6 | 3rd | 21.3 |
| Kingston upon Hull East | East Riding of Yorkshire | 72.6 | Labour | Labour | Marten Hall | 5,764 | 17.8 | 3rd | 21.4 |
| Doncaster Central | South Yorkshire | 66.3 | Labour | Labour | Surjit Duhre | 6,842 | 16.5 | 3rd | 23.5 |
| Hemsworth | West Yorkshire | 68.1 | Labour | Labour | Waj Ali | 5,930 | 13.5 | 3rd | 24.0 |
| Rotherham | South Yorkshire | 68.3 | Labour | Labour | Paul Hague | 6,125 | 17.2 | 3rd | 24.1 |
As I have been saying for months. Brexit broke British politics. Labour will find it winning places like Hartlepool under any leader cause identity is what drives voters.
We are already down a slippery slope. Economic arguments no longer cut it.
We are already down a slippery slope. Economic arguments no longer cut it.
Thanks.
I think that this is right. There is an irony that Europe caused Labour to fall apart despite it being the issue which has riven the Tory Party for decades, but hey ho.
I think that we saw in 2017 and 2019 that many affluent, liberal constituencies with high proportions of voters with degrees are moving, perhaps decisively, away from the Tories. Corbyn's popularity (in some seats anyway!) illustrated this well in 2017 I thought.
Ones that come to mind:
Guildford
Putney
Canterbury
Kensington
Chingford and Woodford Green
Chipping Barnet
Wimbledon
London and Westminster
Cheltenham
Winchester
But 2019 saw many Labour seats just fall to the Tories, whilst many Tories just hung on to their seats. The 'red wall' moved to the Tories far more than these seats moved away from them.
So I guess my open questions are:
- will the Tories be able to hold on to all their seats or will 2023 see them lose these more metropolitan, liberal seats (I never count them out to pull off the impossible)
- excluding Scotland, are there enough liberal seats in England and Wales for Labour to form any sort of coalition government if the red wall is lost? (I doubt this sadly)
Hehe.So you centrist folk have joined us now in bashing the media and voters? Didn't take long
Too true. Sad. Maddening. But true. British people are broken.
I am of the view that for some obscure reason, it has become 'trendy' to vote Tory. And a load of traditional Labour voters are or have changed to Tory for that reason. Boris seems to have a level of charisma; his hair, the way he talks and even the fact that he is a bit unconventional and gets away with things like lying and generally breaking the rules. He is seen as someone who gets things done no matter right or wrong.
Starmer on the other hand lacks charisma, is very conventional and is seen as too honest and mainstream.
That is a reflection of current society. Yes he makes loads of mistakes. But whether Brexit or vaccines, never mind the quality, feel the width.
I think you’re ace.
But I disagree with every aspect of this. Not because you’re necessarily wrong. But the thought of you being right upsets me.
This country is truly broken.
Elections 2021: Who (NOT) To Vote For
For the Tories to be coming more popular with the voters defies logic. So there has to be a specific reason.
The only consolation is that politics are cyclic. Without Boris, the Tories are nothing. I just hope that he looses interest and decides to try something else.
And you are the one who is Ace, not me. But thanks anyway.
The Tories became more popular due to Brexit and their willingness to see it through. Labour dithered and in many constituencies Labour MPs voted against the wishes of their leave voting constituents which gave the Tories loads of ammo to fire. I am a remainer and a Labour part member so not chucking rocks, just telling it how I see it.
The Tories got very lucky with the vaccines and are now making political hay out of that despite the absolute shitshow they have made out of the covid crisis and brexit.
My only hope is that once the dust settles and we have a covid inquiry then their appeal will begin to wane.
Boris seizing the opportunity to have a Falklands moment.
Daily Mail will proclaim this the proudest day in British recent history.
I spy with my little eye...a tawdry PR stunt that just so happens to coincide with polling day.
This video of Brian Rose, one of the London mayoral candidates, had somehow passed me by
What a fecking dork.
This video of Brian Rose, one of the London mayoral candidates, had somehow passed me by
It sounds like a Turkey farm
From Brian Rose’s campaign website:
Does he understand the concept of first?
Does he understand the concept of first?
This video of Brian Rose, one of the London mayoral candidates, had somehow passed me by
can’t believe I watched a minute of that man! I (wrongly) assumed he would say something about voting for him at the end!
Or ‘innovative?’From Brian Rose’s campaign website:
Does he understand the concept of first?
From Brian Rose’s campaign website:
Does he understand the concept of first?
Our two main weapons are fear, surprise and a ruthless efficiency ... our three weapons...
And nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
That vid would be embarrassing enough if you were a teen, let alone a 50-something would-be politician.
So when do the election results start coming in? I think up here we'll find out how many more Tories inexplicably were elected at 10.
It’s going to be a blood bath for Labour. Think the Greens are going to pick up a lot of votes and the Tories will profit.
When do we get the results?
Hodor, toreador, Tory Door. feck this is difficult.
Scotland is apparently Saturday because they're not counting. Wonder if everywhere else is the same?
West(of Scotland)minster politics.
Any idea when Hartlepool result is announced
Eurgh Jayda Fransen what a horrible cnut.
what a horrible cnut.No time soon, probably late Friday.
well i won't be pulling an all nighter tonight