SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Traub said:
I think it's safe for pregnant women to get the vaccine now though.
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True, but many are understandably nervous. In particular the ones who are close to giving birth now will remember the early advice that basically said, "we don't know." We know a lot more now, because a lot of pregnancies have been recorded and women have (safely) had the vaccine at all stages of pregnancy.



Unfortunately at this stage the only advice can be to get vaccinated as soon as you can, and effectively put yourself in the clinically vulnerable category when it comes to meeting people. Easier said than done for most people.
 
jojojo said:
True, but many are understandably nervous. In particular the ones who are close to giving birth now will remember the early advice that basically said, "we don't know." We know a lot more now, because a lot of pregnancies have been recorded and women have (safely) had the vaccine at all stages of pregnancy.



Unfortunately at this stage the only advice can be to get vaccinated as soon as you can, and effectively put yourself in the clinically vulnerable category when it comes to meeting people. Easier said than done for most people.
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Yeah it's a tough one. My sister is due in 2 months, she got her J&J vaccine about a week ago. Her doctors told her any vaccine risk at this stage of her pregnancy is far below the risk and consequences of catching Covid. I'm glad she took it.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Nobody really knows, the problem with the UK approach is that it defies all logic. Opening everything up and advocating for getting rid of the use of masks and the 2 meter rule while cases increase exponentially simply makes no sense. There's living with Covid and there's letting it run riot!
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Ant that's what they're doing. I think they've pretty much decided that they can only prolong the next wave rather than prevent it, and that to have it now (in the summer/not contending with a flu season) is the way to go.

The vaccines work and offer protection to the vast majority, but the numbers they don't cover is sadly still more than enough to overwhelm health systems.
 
Nytram Shakes said:
If we did have to go back into some kind of Covid restrictions, what then would be the plan going forward?

Which pretty much all of those over 40’s will to have the vaccination, fully vaccinated and all the adult under 40 willing at lease has 1 jab.

surely it would basically be saying that the vaccines arn’t enough?
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They aren't enough yet because the entire world needs to be vaccinated otherwise we will constantly get new variants popping up everywhere that can potentially get past vac immunity. We are very far from the end of this unfortunately.
 
d41586-021-00396-2_18861336.png


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2
 
11101 said:
There is a lot of talk about using the vaccine passport to implement the restrictions, so they would only apply to the unvaccinated and for everybody else life can go on as normal. That makes a lot of sense and there are a lot of people here who haven't had the vaccine, including over 2 million over 60s.
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Like in France, then. Hopefully it would spur on those who just haven't got around to it yet.
 
This is very interesting and well done to the WHO for pushing to find out the real truth.
It may just confirm the initial findings of Bat transmission to humans.
But there must be something making them want to look again at the evidence.

Something which has killed well over 4million people and caused countless misery, not withstanding the financial impact simply has to be comprehensively investigated, right down to the nth degree.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...rigins-including-audit-of-wuhan-labs-12357184
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Inevitable. And exposes the bullshit arguments about opening up somehow helping the NHS to better focus on non-covid matters. The exact opposite was always going to happen.
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Further evidence that we have not passed all 4 of the relaxation tests.
Come on Boris. Open your eyes to the DATA and not the DATE as you committed you were going to do the the whole UK public. And don't piss around with the health or safety of the public you were voted in to serve.
 
Buster15 said:
Further evidence that we have not passed all 4 of the relaxation tests.
Come on Boris. Open your eyes to the DATA and not the DATE as you committed you were going to do the the whole UK public. And don't piss around with the health or safety of the public you were voted in to serve.
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He's not on the Caf mate
 
Cases go over the 50k/day mark again in the UK. That's as expected and it's expected to keep rising, though it's hoped it will stop rising quite as fast.

Hospital admissions have hit 700/day with around 4000 currently in hospital. For comparison, during May we reached the point where hospital admissions were around 100/day and we had less than 1000 in hospital. Today's hospitalisation numbers are now higher than the government's statistical models we saw released on Monday were expecting to see prior to the next round of reopening.

I don't think we'll know much more about hospitalisations until the detailed data report appears. The key to the gamble was always, "can we keep the infections away from the over 70s" and "keep most of the infections in the under 30s" - so that's the data that will be watched more closely.

Meanwhile, the test system is getting overloaded (means results arrive later) and the solution to people getting exposed to positive cases and told to quarantine looks like it will depend on how inconvenient the message is.
 
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jojojo said:
Cases go over the 50k/day mark again in the UK. That's as expected and it's expected to keep rising, though it's hoped it will stop rising quite as fast.

Hospital admissions have hit 700/day with around 4000 currently in hospital. For comparison, during May we reached the point where hospital admissions were around 100/day in May with less than 1000 in hospital. Today's numbers are now higher than the government's statistical models we saw released on Monday were expecting to see.

I don't think we'll know much more about hospitalisations until the detailed data report appears. The key to the gamble was always, "can we keep the infections away from the over 70s" and "keep most of the infections in the under 30s" - so that's the data that will be watched more closely.

Meanwhile, the test system is getting overloaded (means results arrive later) and the solution to people getting exposed to positive cases and told to quarantine looks like it will depend on how inconvenient the message is.
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That’s not good.
 
Do you think they will stop reporting these figures sometime soon? If these figures keep going up then people will rightfully question everything again and any goodwill they had from the vaccine drive will be washed. At some point they'd have to have restrictions again then. Also, internationally, we'd be considered a parriah again like we were back in December/Jan

It will get harder to justify not doing a lockdown after a certain point but that won't go well with some of the people they told it's "irriversable" and probably give anti-vaxxers a big lift

Edit: I am not hoping they do, but can see it easily being something these twats would do
 
LARulz said:
Do you think they will stop reporting these figures sometime soon? If these figures keep going up then people will rightfully question everything again and any goodwill they had from the vaccine drive will be washed. At some point they'd have to have restrictions again then. Also, internationally, we'd be considered a parriah again like we were back in December/Jan

It will get harder to justify not doing a lockdown after a certain point but that won't go well with some of the people they told it's "irriversable" and probably give anti-vaxxers a big lift

Edit: I am not hoping they do, but can see it easily being something these twats would do
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I honestly feel sorry for people in England right now - you guys are fecked. I'm hopeful that our own idiots in NI won't just blindly follow and basically forget covid exists - our health minister actually seems to know what he is doing.
 
Infections are spiralling out of control and new variants are inevitable as a result. I fail to see how we can avoid a 3rd lockdown, seems like it will be a formality.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s not good.
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It depends where we are in the wave in terms of behaviour. LSHTM think we won't change much in terms of inter-generational mixing after the legal limits go. In which case the peak may come in mid-August and is deemed manageable by the powers that be. If they're right then people have already changed behaviour to do as much family mixing etc as they're likely to do, and the oldies will avoid busy pubs etc. I've decided I'd like to believe this one is true, and will cling to it (at least emotionally) for now. I'm trying to sell my family on the, "don't mix oldies with young ones other than outdoors at a distance," concepts for the summer - fingers crossed.

Imperial and Warwick think that we'll see more mixing after the 19th, including across generations and across vaxxed/unvaxxed groups, but didn't anticipate the amount of mixing we're already doing (which may be why their hospitalisation estimates for this week are lower than the real thing). Warwick's mid-point model is also within what the NHS have been told to prepare for. If we starting heading into the high mixing territory of any of them I think we'll see a lockdown in September, just in time for the new school and college year :wenger:
 
balaks said:
I honestly feel sorry for people in England right now - you guys are fecked. I'm hopeful that our own idiots in NI won't just blindly follow and basically forget covid exists - our health minister actually seems to know what he is doing.
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That’s encouraging to hear. Although your case numbers are still very high. What are you doing different to England?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s encouraging to hear. Although your case numbers are still very high. What are you doing different to England?
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The ONS (population wide random survey) does give a bit of reassurance that things aren't racing away as fast in NI as in England. Wales remain impressive - a combination of high vaccine takeup and ongoing controls.



Incidentally that same ONS survey suggests that 1:40 in the NorthEast of England are currently infected.
 
balaks said:
Not opening everything up because we made a political promise to despite everything obviously going to shit.
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jojojo said:
The ONS (population wide random survey) does give a bit of reassurance that things aren't racing away as fast in NI as in England. Wales remain impressive - a combination of high vaccine takeup and ongoing controls.



Incidentally that same ONS survey suggests that 1:40 in the NorthEast of England are currently infected.
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Great stuff. Wales and Norn Iron showing how it’s done.

Saw tweet about the NE earlier. Cases sky-rocketing across all age groups. Let’s hope they’re on the ball with their genotyping. Terrible bang of Kent off what’s happening there.
 
Buster15 said:
Further evidence that we have not passed all 4 of the relaxation tests.
Come on Boris. Open your eyes to the DATA and not the DATE as you committed you were going to do the the whole UK public. And don't piss around with the health or safety of the public you were voted in to serve.
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Just my personal opinion, but I don't think he's ever respected his commitments or kept his promises. Plus, not sure how much someone who is allegedly ok with "letting the bodies pile up" is concerned about the h&s of the public.
 
With no public inquiry on the horizon, the stories start to emerge in bits and pieces. From Boris to burner phones to trying to explain the maths:


 
As deaths lag behind cases, its a little scary to think what the numbers will reach in 3 weeks
 
Tibs said:
As deaths lag behind cases, its a little scary to think what the numbers will reach in 3 weeks
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How many cases did Uk have every day 3 weeks ago ?

edit: apparently 15-20k.. so its about 3x now.. Checked the deaths are around 30/day.
Its mostly younger people and most of them seem to be recovering .. which is great..

Obviously the cases getting out of control is bad because it increases the chances of a high risk person getting infected.. but I dont think the deaths will reach anywhere near what it did around Dec-Jan
 
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prateik said:
How many cases did Uk have every day 3 weeks ago ?

edit: apparently 15-20k.. so its about 3x now.. Checked the deaths are around 30/day.
Its mostly younger people and most of them seem to be recovering .. which is great..

Obviously the cases getting out of control is bad because it increases the chances of a high risk person getting infected.. but I dont think the deaths will reach anywhere near what it did around Dec-Jan
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I don’t think anyone is anticipating the daily deaths getting into four figures again, but they were at 60 yesterday, which is double what you’ve put it at. Even if that did only triple from here, 180 deaths a day is a lot, and only bound to get a worse.

I don’t think Boris is remotely interested about deaths at this point, it’ll be about hospitalisations. I don’t know how much more it has to increase to reach a point where the NHS is really stretched, but I suspect we’ll reach it.
 
In Ireland one in twenty people infected are vaccinated which is a worry. 1000 cases today so i imagine the opening up will be delayed.
 
i think we’ll certainly go back to lockdown at some point before September. Either hospitalisations will exceed their margin of error (seems likely currently) or a new variant of concern will emerge due to the perfect breeding ground we’re feeding it. I think we have to be realistic that we’ve got another year or more of this before we can conceivably consider returning to normal - to be honest I think we might need to get used to a new normal now that is never like it once was. It does make me laugh where I hear things online like “I’d rather die than permanently wear masks in shops!!” Erm, no, no you wouldn’t!
 
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