SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

@Redlambs did you ever figure it out? I have the exact same issue. Though curiously I'm able to download the travel pass, just not the domestic one which also gives me the same "How to get your domestic vaccine pass..." page.

Those of you saying that you need to send ID for validation? How? I don't see any prompt for such a thing.
 
Kaos said:
@Redlambs did you ever figure it out? I have the exact same issue. Though curiously I'm able to download the travel pass, just not the domestic one which also gives me the same "How to get your domestic vaccine pass..." page.

Those of you saying that you need to send ID for validation? How? I don't see any prompt for such a thing.
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It's working for me now, you might just have to wait a bit longer.

But no, you don't need to do the ID thing.
 
Got the Moderna booster 6 hours ago. Arm not really hurting, no weird feeling. Hopefully I have no symptoms in the morning either. Friend at work got her booster two days ago and it was hard on her almost immediately.

So that's two AZs and a Moderna. Decent combo.
 
Baxter said:
What’s the data looking like on severity of illness? Regardless, I’m convinced next week will bring stricter measures.
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Too early to know. I’d say it’s extremely likely the % serious cases is lower than it would be in a completely naive population. Even though it’s spreading so fast it’s almost as though nobody has been exposed/vaccinated before.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Too early to know. I’d say it’s extremely likely it’s a lot less serious than it would be in a completely naive population. Even though it’s spreading so fast it’s almost as though nobody has been exposed/vaccinated before.
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If the illness isn't as serious why are people championing lockdown style restrictions again?

Surely its a different situation.
 
TheReligion said:
If the illness isn't as serious why are people championing lockdown style restrictions again?

Surely its a different situation.
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Because nobody knows for sure if the illness is less serious. Plus it could be a lot less serious and still leave hospitals completely overwhelmed if it keeps spreading at the current rate.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Because nobody knows for sure if the illness is less serious. Plus it could be a lot less serious and still leave hospitals completely overwhelmed if it keeps spreading at the current rate.
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Surely though bringing in lockdown style restrictions without seeing any increase in admissions or deaths would be overly cautious?

Infection rate is climbing, granted, but until there's any inclination that the other two will do then I don't see the logic.
 
TheReligion said:
Surely though bringing in lockdown style restrictions without seeing any increase in admissions or deaths would be overly cautious?

Infection rate is climbing, granted, but until there's any inclination that the other two will do then I don't see the logic.
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The logic is that hospitalisations and deaths (in that order) are the last metrics to change. If they start to sky-rocket it’s already too late to react. This is like steering a supertanker. Every tweak takes ages to have any effect but things can go very badly wrong very quickly.

Obviously everyone is watching countries further down this road extremely closely (i.e. South Africa) to try and use their experience to predict the UK’s future. But you can’t necessarily extrapolate one country’s experience to another. Uk has higher vaccination rates (good) but a much higher proportion of elderly/vulnerable (bad) And the whole situation is moving incredibly fast.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
The logic is that hospitalisations and deaths (in that order) are the last metrics to change. If they start to sky-rocket it’s already too late to react. This is like steering a supertanker. Every tweak takes ages to have any effect but things can go very badly wrong very quickly.

Obviously everyone is watching countries further down this road extremely closely (i.e. South Africa) to try and use their experience to predict the UK’s future. But you can’t necessarily extrapolate one country’s experience to another. Uk has higher vaccination rates (good) but a much higher proportion of elderly/vulnerable (bad) And the whole situation is moving incredibly fast.
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No I understand and that makes sense but there's no noise anywhere that this is becoming serious is there?

I'm not anti lockdown by any stretch and I'm vaccinated and happy to do whatever is required however I don't think we should just go into lockdowns without careful consideration based on the damage it does to people and the economy.
 
TheReligion said:
No I understand and that makes sense but there's no noise anywhere that this is becoming serious is there?

I'm not anti lockdown by any stretch and I'm vaccinated and happy to do whatever is required however I don't think we should just go into lockdowns without careful consideration based on the damage it does to people and the economy.
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There’s plenty of noise about this being very serious indeed. All of the experts are extremely nervous.

I don’t think a full lockdown is on the cards. I hope not anyway. I do think we’ll come very close to needing one. Squeaky bum time for at least another month or two.
 
TheReligion said:
Surely though bringing in lockdown style restrictions without seeing any increase in admissions or deaths would be overly cautious?

Infection rate is climbing, granted, but until there's any inclination that the other two will do then I don't see the logic.
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Essentially the gap between exposure to covid and hospitalisation is around two weeks. We're already seeing a drift up in hospitalisations (currently only in working age adults. We're still talking about a relatively small number of omicron cases - we're at least a week from knowing what the hospitalisation profile looks like: by age, by past infection, by double vaxxed, by boosted etc. The raw numbers/rates needed to model what happens next simply don't exist.

Some people are going with caution - assume severity pattern same as delta but with a larger group capable of getting infected and infecting others. In which case we need to slam the infection control brakes on. If it's milder then early controls leave the door open to keeping things normal for family/friends meeting over Christmas without crashing the hospital system by New Year's.

Once you "wait and see" you have zero control over timing of any surge. You either get away with it - and we're all happy or we don't and we've baked in a huge rise in hospitalisations and deaths starting around Christmas and accelerating in January.

For me personally that means no proper parties until Christmas and LFTs in the morning before I meet older/more vulnerable relatives and friends. That pattern won't be true for everyone of course.
 
jojojo said:
Essentially the gap between exposure to covid and hospitalisation is around two weeks. We're already seeing a drift up in hospitalisations (currently only in working age adults. We're still talking about a relatively small number of omicron cases - we're at least a week from knowing what the hospitalisation profile looks like: by age, by past infection, by double vaxxed, by boosted etc. The raw numbers/rates needed to model what happens next simply don't exist.

Some people are going with caution - assume severity pattern same as delta but with a larger group capable of getting infected and infecting others. In which case we need to slam the infection control brakes on. If it's milder then early controls leave the door open to keeping things normal for family/friends meeting over Christmas without crashing the hospital system by New Year's.

Once you "wait and see" you have zero control over timing of any surge. You either get away with it - and we're all happy or we don't and we've baked in a huge rise in hospitalisations and deaths starting around Christmas and accelerating in January.

For me personally that means no proper parties until Christmas and LFTs in the morning before I meet older/more vulnerable relatives and friends. That pattern won't be true for everyone of course.
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Thanks. Yeah that's sensible and I think everyone should be. I guess everyone has different opinions on how to approach the risk it presents. I'm cautious however I also feel we have to be realistic.
 
First report I've seen detailing disease progress in a group of young vaccine triple dosed/boosted adults.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3981711

Only 7 cases noted but it definitely confirms that boosted adults can not only catch it, they do get symptoms. None hospitalised, but then that would be typical for 7 young adults with any of the variants.
 
I know it’s very early for any significant data on Omicron severe illnesses and deaths but is there anything at all to work with?
 
Pexbo said:
I know it’s very early for any significant data on Omicron severe illnesses and deaths but is there anything at all to work with?
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Burn-Murdoch just did a new twitter thread 20mins ago. Pretty certain it will lead to less deaths/hospitalisations, whether the reason is vaccines/prior infection or milder variant (it isn't really that important which it is).

Given it seems to be doubling every 2,5 days, only a hard lock-down would contain it, and unless one wants to do it for several months, it is most likely best, to just let it go through population.
 


Thread on latest omicron data in uk.

tl;dr. Previous infection/unboosted vaccines gives little or no protection against infection. Unboosted AZ gives zero protection, Pfizer = 30% (both may still give protection against serious disease)

Boosted vaccine (Pfizer, in 1st month) does give reasonable protection (70%) against infection (the good news!).

Seems to be a hell of lot more transmissible than delta (or any other known variant). Individual cases much more likely to become household outbreak and cases rising faster than any previous wave.

Small numbers make all the above not very robust but is consistent with data in other countries and in labs.
 
Pogue Mahone said:


Thread on latest omicron data in uk.

tl;dr. Previous infection/unboosted vaccines gives little or no protection against infection. Unboosted AZ gives zero protection, Pfizer = 30% (both may still give protection against serious disease)

Boosted vaccine (Pfizer, in 1st month) does give reasonable protection (70%) against infection (the good news!).

Seems to be a hell of lot more transmissible than delta (or any other known variant). Individual cases much more likely to become household outbreak and cases rising faster than any previous wave.

Small numbers make all the above not very robust but is consistent with data in other countries and in labs.
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"Both may still give..." May? That sounds a little worrisome... I prefer "would" to "may" :(
 
Can I walk into a vaccine centre in Scotland and get my booster? I feel like the messaging on this isn’t clear enough. I’m not eligible to book an appointment yet but obviously the guidance is now any adult who’s over 18 and their last jab was 3 months ago it should be possible?
 
Shakesey said:
"Both may still give..." May? That sounds a little worrisome... I prefer "would" to "may" :(
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It looks like prior infection and/or vaccination almost certainly (is that better?) gives some protection against serious disease or omicron is less virulent. Impossible to know which and difference doesn’t really matter.
 
Shakesey said:
"Both may still give..." May? That sounds a little worrisome... I prefer "would" to "may" :(
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It will be a few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England Technical.

Its a lot closer to would then may.
 
Are they still working on new vaccines?

Or have they just stopped once they thought the current ones were enough protection wise.

Seems a while new vaccine could be needed for omnicron.
 
One Night Only said:
Are they still working on new vaccines?

Or have they just stopped once they thought the current ones were enough protection wise.

Seems a while new vaccine could be needed for omnicron.
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The MRNA vaccines can be changed super quick so that's not really an issue
 
Bosws87 said:
The MRNA vaccines can be changed super quick so that's not really an issue
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Omicron wave will be most likely over before those will be in mass-production let alone distributed. But they should be useful for the next one.
 
@Pogue Mahone seems others have already answered your question better better than I ever probably could!

I guess though other respiratory viruses may well have ravaged through our species in the past in similar ways but difficult to know for various reasons. I wonder how many civilisational collapses were due to some unknown illness spreading through and collapsing their societies. The Americas were destroyed as much through disease that the Europeans inadvertently spread to an unready population as it was through war and conquest. We're also living on top of each other in a way we haven't done as much in the past which obviously all contribute!
 
massi83 said:
Omicron wave will be most likely over before those will be in mass-production let alone distributed. But they should be useful for the next one.
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In relative terms compared to old vaccines, i'm still not convinced omicron is this drastic nightmare they are trying to sell in the media we will wait and see.
 
massi83 said:
Omicron wave will be most likely over before those will be in mass-production let alone distributed. But they should be useful for the next one.
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Yeah, the good thing about this fecker being so stupidly contagious is it will be a short, sharp shock.

You’d hope the omicron vaccine will work on the next variant. Although the worry is that delta and omicron were both early, separate branches. One didn’t evolve into the other. We kind of have to hope that the next bad one is Omicron+ and not another curve ball.
 
Bosws87 said:
In relative terms compared to old vaccines, i'm still not convinced omicron is this drastic nightmare they are trying to sell in the media we will wait and see.
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My comment has nothing to do with nightmares or what "media is selling".
 
I saw on twitter it was suggested the guy who did the pfizer is saying people need 4 injections.

2 are ineffective and 3 are 70% affective according to current reports
 
choccy77 said:
I saw on twitter it was suggested the guy who did the pfizer is saying people need 4 injections.

2 are ineffective and 3 are 70% affective according to current reports
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How many jabs will we have to have in the end? 2 or 3 a year?
 
Pexbo said:
Oh my god you just love lockdowns
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:lol: No I hate them but the data is trending in the wrong direction right now. I'm glad I was wrong when I predicted one back in August, but I think I'll be right this time.
 
jojojo said:
For me personally that means no proper parties until Christmas
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A local Sydney pup has close to 50 cases from a single quiz night which means it must be crazily infectious as it isn't a huge pub. So we are more or less staying at home as my son has a national team training camp from the 19th to the 24th so we need to be very cautious.

Shame we can't get our booster until the end of Jan.
 
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