That's the plan though.
Enforce a Lockdown by default, this way the government don't have to take responsibility financially.
It's all been designed to scare people and have them focus on boosters rather than going out.
And it is working.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
That's the plan though.
Enforce a Lockdown by default, this way the government don't have to take responsibility financially.
It's all been designed to scare people and have them focus on boosters rather than going out.
And it is working.
He’ll come out and offer them all a cup of teaI'd have a tiny bit of respect for Boris, if he came out and told them all to fk off
Probably get 2 or 3 pregnant
Yes I've seen they are already suffering but I would imagine if you asked they'd sooner stay open until new year then close with support?
Literally the busiest night of the year, even if some stay at home?
Who’s they? Some nightclubs? Some bars? I bet if you canvassed the entire hospitality industry there would be very strong support for lockdown and support.
As I said before, currently places are half empty or worse or suffering severe staff shortages. A couple of big nights aren’t going to rescue them assuming they reach capacity, which most places won’t.
Hospitality in general really. I'd imagine they'd like to be open for New Year if they had the choice?
I was chatting with the staff in the bar last night and they were saying they’ve had loads of booking cancellations and that there’d been nobody in there until mid afternoon, no lunch trade at all.
What’s the context of the choice though?
Normal nights, with all staff at capacity? Of course they would.
The stress of not knowing how many to stock for, whether you will have enough staff, if it’s even safe for your staff and customers to reach capacity? The sheer uncertainty they’re facing right now, I think most would bite your hand off for the support.
They’re being sold down the river right now, customers are being advised to stay at home and the hospitality industry has no choice but to stay open and soak up the cost.
Cheers you have given me some reading material there.
That's a good point to be honest. Yeah I'll have it. I still don't see the government trying to pull this before New Year. Would create carnage with the public and you'd end up with huge street/house parties
I fully believe they are just biding their time until after the festive season and early Jan something significant will happen.
For some reason I have it in my head that we still have a decent chunk of the worlds population who are unvaccinated but also who havent had the virus. Not sure why I am thinking that, I will go have a look at whats really going on.
Exactly. Look at this for example:
It’s the story across the industry. I’ve still got friends in the industry and the general consensus seems to be that there’s loads of work because there’s a massive shortage of chefs and front of house but they’re all moaning that they’re getting sod all tips (which pretty much pays for Christmas in my experience) because turn over is so low.
My Omicron Diary: Day 0 (virus setting up camp)
No fever. No cough. No fatigue. No muscle aches. No loss of taste or smell. Feeling fine.
No fever. No cough. No fatigue. No muscle aches. No loss of taste or smell. Feeling fine.
For people interested in what the modelling currently looks like for the UK. Do read the yes, but and other assumptions in the SPI-M report itself before taking it as a prediction though - it isn't, it's a what if document awaiting some blanks to be filled in and other data to be firmed up.
Important to realise that those error bars are massive. If you're a gambler who wants it over with, you go for Plan A - and hope for the best with 3k admissions/day and 600 deaths/day. Beware though - if you're wrong, it's very grim indeed (and even the optimist version isn't pretty)
Important to realise that those error bars are massive. If you're a gambler who wants it over with, you go for Plan A - and hope for the best with 3k admissions/day and 600 deaths/day. Beware though - if you're wrong, it's very grim indeed (and even the optimist version isn't pretty)
That guy in the grey hoodie, how much pleasure it would have given me to see him clobbered.
Was there cumulative numbers somewhere also? Peak numbers are less important.
Error bars are massive and don’t make any case for Plan B. Based on that model it’s either A or C you should go for.
This was in our local main newspaper today.
Its probably something most of you already have a feel for but because down here we have been so isolated from lots of problems for so long we end up with a slightly more pessimistic view. This is a more positive view going forward, it is NZ centric but might be an interesting read for others hoping for a more positive future outlook.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...es-says-professor/JE4FJGYMBZJ4BN3VXQJFM2XB6M/
Its probably something most of you already have a feel for but because down here we have been so isolated from lots of problems for so long we end up with a slightly more pessimistic view. This is a more positive view going forward, it is NZ centric but might be an interesting read for others hoping for a more positive future outlook.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...es-says-professor/JE4FJGYMBZJ4BN3VXQJFM2XB6M/
The Dutch have been put into full lockdown again until the 14th January, everything including schools shut
Crucially it starts with the idea that once infected, omicron is similar to delta in severity, the signals out of SA remain better than that. Because of the different population groups - age, vaccine, past infection, boosters etc - it's really hard to know how that maps to the UK, but I'm not willing to give up on it!
That's where the gamblers and Plan A are betting really. Wait for the first data from London/Denmark about boosters and hospitalisations before jumping. Be ready for the shock of a Plan C soon after Christmas, but hope that with voluntary behaviour change we can buy just enough time to wait for some more data.
Meanwhile I hope that we're getting boosters into the remaining unboosted over 70s who can't/don't want to use the big vaccine hubs, because that's another major bit of the "buy a little time" equation.
They don't make a case for any of them. You can't make a decision with this, I hope it isn't what the government is having to rely on.
Be interesting to see if this also factors in future decisions. Can’t compare SA to here blah blah blah but still…
Dumb question but could omicron affect people differently so therefore not requiring hospital admission to the same degree?
Is it true it attacks the airwaves rather than lungs and whilst people can and will be adversely affected the immune systems tend to cope better with a runny nose Vs something that goes for the lungs?
Is it true it attacks the airwaves rather than lungs and whilst people can and will be adversely affected the immune systems tend to cope better with a runny nose Vs something that goes for the lungs?
Just my own general observation lots of people are avoiding going out went to a usually very busy shopping mall to buy presents and it was at about 20% so kinda good, but that said a hipster coffee shop : restaurant near I love had like 30 people all crammed outside eating and drinking for 5 hours a few days ago. The place is the size of your local grocery store so can only imagine how many were inside.
Curious about those that say can’t compare South Africa to here… ok they have a younger population, we have a higher vaccination rate.
They have significantly more people with HIV/AIDS and worse healthcare for those not on private treatment. We have very low HIV rate and very good/world class public healthcare.
So surely we can take positives from the fact that Omicron was much less severe there than here.
It is important to make a more general point (not necessarily directed at that model or tweet) that large error bars which represent frequentist confidence intervals do not necessarily suggest bad data.
If a natural process has large variation, then it will often lead to larger error bars unless you can obtain a very large number of samples. The reverse is also true. You can have a situation where the bars are very small but you have a minimum sample size and/or only happened to sample for a short period of time whereby the process happened to fixate around a particular set of values. For example this can be problematic when sampling long period intermittent signals i.e. "bursts" with long periods of "nothingness".
As an aside, there are signals which have short-term correlations between each point in the signal. If you want to obtain independent samples, contrary to intuition, you actually want to sample slowly and for a very very long period of time to be able to capture the physics correctly. This differs to the case to reproduce the signal where you would then need to sample quickly and exceed the Nyquist requirement. Another issue to consider as well is that, assuming a process is steady, when you sample it over a given period of time or space, you inevitably capture less data at the extreme ends and so the tails of the subsequent distribution are more difficult to reproduce correctly.
It’s always the guys with the neck beards who decline to wear the masks. If anything they should be embracing them and not for medical reasons
The main reason you have to be cautious about comparisons is that they had a wave of a variant (beta) that we didn’t get at all over here which has some mutations in common with omicron that aren’t in delta/alpha etc (or original covid, that the vaccines are based on)
Also their delta wave ended. Even UK's hasn't, so they had more immunity already at that point. And most of their vaccinations have been done after delta wave, further increasing the immunity.
Yeah, good point. Vaccinations on top of infection is gold standard immunity.
My first day out of isolation today.
I am double jabbed with AZ and tested positive early last week. I've had strange symptoms, the first day just felt wiped out tired. Then a few days of random coughing, loss of appetite and just awful aches and muscle pains and tiredness.
My daughter who is 9 had it too and three nights in a row her temperature spiked to 40.5 and had to have the paramedics out twice for her. She's much better now.
My sister has it and has the same symptoms as me, she's double jabbed but not sure which vaccine. Her son who is 15 had it really bad too, he was really poorly. Yet his brother who has isolated with them hasn't caught it. And my partner who has shared the bed with our daughter for the last 10 days hasn't caught it either. She's double Pfizer jabbed.
Like many places, it's ripped through our town and area. I've known so many with it and many with little or no symptoms and many like me who suffered like a nasty flu symptoms. I am yet to speak to anyone other than younger kids who have had it and have not been vaccinated, but it appears the vaccines are definitely working to lessen the impact of the virus.
All the stats seem to indicate this too. Cases rising but hospitalisations and deaths appear to be roughly the same and at the moment (touch wood) not rising exponentially like the cases seem to be.
Although it's cost me enough with the lockdowns, I had to close last weekend ( we were fully booked each night) as I didn't have enough staff and didn't want to risk the ones who didn't have it getting it or if they had it, spreading it to customers. So that cost a fortune. I had tickets for me and my lad to see Bill Bailey on Monday we had to cancel and we were due to fly to Finland, Lapland on Tuesday and then had tickets for United Brighton today, so all in all I went from having the best week ever planned to having the actual nightmare before Christmas.
On the bright side though, none of us got severely Ill or worse with Covid, but now we have to once again face the prospect of uncertainty and having to close the pub again during the busy holiday period that usually gets us through the lean winter and early spring months.
I'm just now more disillusioned and confused about how I feel about the whole scenario. I'm not sure how many businesses can cope with more shut downs or how many more people can cope either. Especially teenagers like mine and his cousins in their final years at school. They are suffering awfully and struggling to catch up for their exams and the schools just seem lost and unable to cope or help support then.
Covid causes far more damage than just those sick or dying. It really is a fecking nightmare and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight either.
Sorry for the long meandering post, just needed to get all that out.
I am double jabbed with AZ and tested positive early last week. I've had strange symptoms, the first day just felt wiped out tired. Then a few days of random coughing, loss of appetite and just awful aches and muscle pains and tiredness.
My daughter who is 9 had it too and three nights in a row her temperature spiked to 40.5 and had to have the paramedics out twice for her. She's much better now.
My sister has it and has the same symptoms as me, she's double jabbed but not sure which vaccine. Her son who is 15 had it really bad too, he was really poorly. Yet his brother who has isolated with them hasn't caught it. And my partner who has shared the bed with our daughter for the last 10 days hasn't caught it either. She's double Pfizer jabbed.
Like many places, it's ripped through our town and area. I've known so many with it and many with little or no symptoms and many like me who suffered like a nasty flu symptoms. I am yet to speak to anyone other than younger kids who have had it and have not been vaccinated, but it appears the vaccines are definitely working to lessen the impact of the virus.
All the stats seem to indicate this too. Cases rising but hospitalisations and deaths appear to be roughly the same and at the moment (touch wood) not rising exponentially like the cases seem to be.
Although it's cost me enough with the lockdowns, I had to close last weekend ( we were fully booked each night) as I didn't have enough staff and didn't want to risk the ones who didn't have it getting it or if they had it, spreading it to customers. So that cost a fortune. I had tickets for me and my lad to see Bill Bailey on Monday we had to cancel and we were due to fly to Finland, Lapland on Tuesday and then had tickets for United Brighton today, so all in all I went from having the best week ever planned to having the actual nightmare before Christmas.
On the bright side though, none of us got severely Ill or worse with Covid, but now we have to once again face the prospect of uncertainty and having to close the pub again during the busy holiday period that usually gets us through the lean winter and early spring months.
I'm just now more disillusioned and confused about how I feel about the whole scenario. I'm not sure how many businesses can cope with more shut downs or how many more people can cope either. Especially teenagers like mine and his cousins in their final years at school. They are suffering awfully and struggling to catch up for their exams and the schools just seem lost and unable to cope or help support then.
Covid causes far more damage than just those sick or dying. It really is a fecking nightmare and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight either.
Sorry for the long meandering post, just needed to get all that out.
So I was speaking to a volunteer helping out at a pharmacy and she said they were not bothering with the "15 minute wait" because the queues were so long. During her shifts they supposedly only had one issue - a lady scared of needles felt a bit faint and they allowed her to rest there until she felt better.
@jojojo
Does this criticism seem fair to you? Would drive a coach and horses through Imperial’s model, if so. Obviously, I’m far too lazy to read the actual publication
There are so many unknowns you can understand them plugging in the only concrete data they have available but extrapolating directly from lab data on antibody levels to protection vs severe disease seems ludicrously conservative. Even for a negative Nelly like me!
The 15 minute has been officially done away with for boosters. If anyone was going to get an anaphylactic reaction they would have done so with dose 1 or 2.
My uncle got his booster today and is in terrible shape. Had violent shits on the way home and was conked out like a zombie on the sofa but he’s coming around now.
Maybe it’s a coincidence but it is new for him
No, don't be sorry. Your reaction is completely understandable.
I'm not a "zero covid" campaigner and never have been. I'm very much in the camp of only delay the inevitable if you have some reason to think the population as a whole benefit from the delay - whether that's because of a vaccine or because the health service doesn't fall apart.
Life does go on and it has to. We can't keep stop/starting education as a zero cost option. We do need to let people live their lives, including all those frivolous things like playing/watching football, going to the pub, meeting new people, spending time with family and friends, going on holiday.
It's a real shame we've found ourselves back here now. If it's any consolation, I do think Omicron has pushed the button to tell us, "and now you learn to live with it." It could be a rough winter, but I really do think we're on the way out of this.
Is that the case even when you’re getting a different vaccine?
My wife and me both had AZ for 1&2, but obviously not for our boosters this morning which were Pfizer and they told us we didn’t need to hang around if we didn’t want to.
Yes!