Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Seems inevitable that Ukraine will be taken but the point about what happens next is a fair one.

Assuming Russia don't intend to attack any NATO countries, how do they stop what would presumably be a constant flow of weapons and resources in to Ukranian rebels? The country is bordered by four different NATO countries who will openly or tacitly be in support of insurgents. That seems like a resource-draining mess to occupy indefinitely. And I don't see how Russia leverage their way into occupation being accepted from this point.
 
That'sHernandez said:
Actually I appreciate the reality that is Russia will win this conflict and protracting it will cost substantially more innocent Ukrainian (and Russian) lives than is needed. It’s easy for you to say they should fight to the death without actually having something on the line.

Some people genuinely care about the sanctity of human life over where a line is drawn on a map. @bosnian_red @Bosnian_fan
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You don't seem to understand that the war doesn't end when someone like Putin wins. In fact it gets much, much worse for the conquered population. You're saying you value the sanctity of human life? You think this starts and ends with lines on a map and that life goes on as normal for Ukrainians after if Russia takes over? Ridiculous and incredibly naive. Come back to the real world. It turns into a massacre, it turns into oppression, it turns into genocide, it turns into a mass exodus of an entire population. Do you think only soldiers are dying? Do you think "surrendering" leads to peace and survival for everyone? Look at the 90's in Srebrenica where thousands of innocent Bosnians were murdered. They didn't have guns. They weren't fighting. They were just trying to live normal lives. They were slaughtered regardless because of a hatred against their culture, their history, their religion, anything that represented them being different. You care about the sanctity of human life? Then you need to fight for it against tyrants like Putin. You need to fight for it against the pathetic soldiers who have decided to pick up arms and support his cause. These aren't innocent Russians. 5hey have decided to pick up arms and attack innocent civilians. They are murderers in the name of a tyrant.

You need a reality check over what war is like. And what happens to the people during war. And what happens to the people remaining after war when someone like Putin takes over. Because if you had an inkling of thought, you would never say something like you hope Putin wins quickly.
 
The Firestarter said:
Is there any other outcome that leads to them not losing that island? I thought it fell into the undefendable category.
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Sure, but humans are irrational. It’s a weird little thing that is important to Ukraine. Can’t quite think of a British equivalent right now.
 
Danny1982 said:
This.

We need to wait and see what happens in the coming days/couple of weeks before we can start making predictions with some confidence. Remember, in 2015 everybody was talking about Russia getting into a quagmire in Syria, but that didn't quite turn out to be the case. It is also too early to know what effect the sanctions could have for sure because for example we don't know yet what China will do in all of this (will the US be able to win China over again? Will China go far in supporting Russia?). We don't even know if Russia will succeed in toppling the government, and if it does how long will that take. Situation is still quite unclear at the moment.
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All that. And then there’s also the random stuff that can happen out of the blue in these situations with the potential to shift the course of events (e.g. the accidental downing of a non-hostile aircraft).

Raoul said:
They're just opinions
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Yes I understand that. Possibly a cultural difference here, I guess I tend to expect such predictions to carry certain caveats/qualifications at this early stage.
 
rpitroda said:
I’ve seen a few posts here pondering what role China would take here. What is the long term benefit to them to support Russia? My take is that Putin’s Russia is toast - not Russia itself, but Putin’s Russia. There is no way now that things return to normal for them whilst Putin remains. And to that end, unless we think there is a stream of Putin-heirs in the wings, surely it is much better for China to align to the US than Russia. I know there is ideology factors to consider but I’m not sure how much they’d weigh in here. But I’m far from knowledgable on this subject so I’d be very keen to hear other peoples perspective on this.
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China are currently in trade war with USA that is ongoing since Trump administration. China is also Russia's neighbor and a communist country for a long long time. On top of that economically they can gain advantage faster and easier from Russia's vast natural resources.

Their best game is to remain neutral and deal with both EU and Russia, thus being winners in the whole situation and most probably they will exploit it.
 
WI_Red said:
To every Russian on that ship “go screw yourself”.
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I wonder how many of those Russian soldiers at that moment wanted to do that as well. This is a very odd time to show any sympathy to the oppressor but I'm sure some of those soldiers have a "wtf am I doing here" inside their heart.
 
sullydnl said:
Seems inevitable that Ukraine will be taken but the point about what happens next is a fair one.

Assuming Russia don't intend to attack any NATO countries, how do they stop what would presumably be a constant flow of weapons and resources in to Ukranian rebels? The country is bordered by four different NATO countries who will openly or tacitly be in support of insurgents. That seems like a resource-draining mess to occupy indefinitely. And I don't see how Russia leverage their way into occupation being accepted from this point.
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There's always the scenario where an insurgency doesn't happen and the country essentially becomes a failed state, completely controlled by Russia. But for that to happen, they'd most likely would have to eliminate all of Ukraine's military if there's no surrender. Or Russia splits Ukraine in two halves and calls for a ceasefire.

That's how crazy this whole situation is. Putin has done the unthinkable in unleashing this havoc.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
None of us would ever know. Maybe a few people on the international space station might be the ones to survive.
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Yes, if one side got too far ahead you'd have a serious chance of nuclear weapons being used.
The Firestarter said:
People forget but one thing that came out of snowden was the fact that the US invented the game of placing dormant backdoor in friends or foes. Will be surprised if this is not the case here, with their reliance on antiquated stuff like Windows xp.
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I haven’t forgotten about that. Surely the US has some other high tech tricks we’ve not seen used publicly before.

Causing their computer systems to fail would surely be game over.
 
sullydnl said:
Seems inevitable that Ukraine will be taken but the point about what happens next is a fair one.

Assuming Russia don't intend to attack any NATO countries, how do they stop what would presumably be a constant flow of weapons and resources in to Ukranian rebels? The country is bordered by four different NATO countries who will openly or tacitly be in support of insurgents. That seems like a resource-draining mess to occupy indefinitely. And I don't see how Russia leverage their way into occupation being accepted from this point.
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As harsh as it sounds, will it? Is Ukraine that important to NATO/US? If it was there would be troops there now wouldn't there?
 
Here’s to hoping this is a Teutoburg Forest moment and not a Bar Kokhba one.
 
shamans said:
I wonder how many of those Russian soldiers at that moment wanted to do that as well. This is a very odd time to show any sympathy to the oppressor but I'm sure some of those soldiers have a "wtf am I doing here" inside their heart.
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I mentioned in a post before, these lads have been told by serving their country that they're doing the right thing and plenty of them will be just as afraid as their Ukrainian counterparts. I will celebrate Ukrainian victories, but won't celebrate the deaths of young Russian men, 18-40 years old, some with young families of their own and almost all with mothers. Invading force or not.
 
rpitroda said:
I’ve seen a few posts here pondering what role China would take here. What is the long term benefit to them to support Russia? My take is that Putin’s Russia is toast - not Russia itself, but Putin’s Russia. There is no way now that things return to normal for them whilst Putin remains. And to that end, unless we think there is a stream of Putin-heirs in the wings, surely it is much better for China to align to the US than Russia. I know there is ideology factors to consider but I’m not sure how much they’d weigh in here. But I’m far from knowledgable on this subject so I’d be very keen to hear other peoples perspective on this.
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Taiwan.
 
VanDeBank said:
What a condescending rant. You're ignoring that he mentioned "fewest lives lost as possible" and youre going on about "slaughters".

2nd rate citizenry already exists in Ukraine. They're just not the Ukrainians.

OP is correct, if US/EU dont want the Ukrainians to win the war, theyll lose it. Better get it over with quickly with the lowest death count possible.


This view lacks historical awareness. All countries exist because wars were won or lost.

What if Austro-Hungarians or Yugoslavs too up the mentality you're propogating?

They may well have and it wouldn't have changed a thing.
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Its a condescending rant because it's a pathetic opinion. Nobody wants war. But you also need the realism of what giving in to Putin means. There is no world where "give up Ukraine, it is what it is, let them take over it'll be fine" is a thing. Ukraine giving up and him taking over leads to a horrifying reality for 40+ million Ukrainians. It also doesn't lead to everything ending peacefully. It's incredibly naive to think otherwise. And it's the exact same mentality that was adopted with Hitler. You think Putin is anything different? Enabling him will only make things worse.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
I mentioned in a post before, these lads have been told by serving their country that they're doing the right thing and plenty of them will be just as afraid as their Ukrainian counterparts. I will celebrate Ukrainian victories, but won't celebrate the deaths of young Russian men, 18-40 years old, some with young families of their own and almost all with mothers. Invading force or not.
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What a sad situation.
 
bosnian_red said:
These aren't innocent Russians. 5hey have decided to pick up arms and attack innocent civilians. They are murderers in the name of a tyrant.
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What are they supposed to do? I don't see US soldiers as murderers despite some of the shit they have done because they had to do it. If you are a soldier, you get told what to do and not doing it is literally a crime, no? There are examples like My Lai where soldiers do what they don't have to or are not ordered to do, but surely being a solider (in non-neutral countries) means there's a solid chance you might have to kill someone even if it's in a war-act you personally don't agree with? Genuine question because I'd say blaming Putin's version of the Russian army is a better exercise rather than blaming individual soldiers. The whole system is fecked and that's really the problem.
 
rpitroda said:
I’ve seen a few posts here pondering what role China would take here. What is the long term benefit to them to support Russia? My take is that Putin’s Russia is toast - not Russia itself, but Putin’s Russia. There is no way now that things return to normal for them whilst Putin remains. And to that end, unless we think there is a stream of Putin-heirs in the wings, surely it is much better for China to align to the US than Russia. I know there is ideology factors to consider but I’m not sure how much they’d weigh in here. But I’m far from knowledgable on this subject so I’d be very keen to hear other peoples perspective on this.
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Agree, there is a very lazy but popular opinion out there that they will use this time to attack Taiwan, which I find ridiculous.

China is very much China first, protect itself from every being raped and pillaged ever again, as it has been throughout its history. Siding with Russia in a potential world war does not do anything for its security and it would not want a leader such as Putin to succeed and expand. It does no harm to use and abuse him for now however as Putin needs China far far more than the other way around, they can name their price. If things escalate too much I think things would change though.
 
owlo said:
Here’s to hoping this is a Teutoburg Forest moment and not a Bar Kokhba one.
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Remember, even after Teutoberg, Germanicus led a successful punitive expedition across the Rhine to inflict a lot of damage. So even if UKR stays free, unnecessary suffering will likely occur.
 
shamans said:
I wonder how many of those Russian soldiers at that moment wanted to do that as well. This is a very odd time to show any sympathy to the oppressor but I'm sure some of those soldiers have a "wtf am I doing here" inside their heart.
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There will be many soldiers who will hate themselves for sure. But the other option is being charged for treason and desertion by a Putin government, so they follow orders.
 
shamans said:
As harsh as it sounds, will it? Is Ukraine that important to NATO/US? If it was there would be troops there now wouldn't there?
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Not important enough to engage in direct millitary conflict with Russia for, clearly.

But is it (or more importantly from their POV the broader geopolitical dispute with Russia) so unimportant that there wouldn't be finanacial or logistical support for those resisting the occupancy?

Put it this way: what do the countries involved gain from Russia not being bogged down in an extended and expensive occupancy? Because I would have thought a continuing drain on Russia's resources is very much in their interests. And if Russia is unwilling to directly attack them, how does it stop them providing insurgents with that flow of support?
 
sport2793 said:
Remember, even after Teutoberg, Germanicus led a successful punitive expedition across the Rhine to inflict a lot of damage. So even if UKR stays free, unnecessary suffering will likely occur.
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Aye, but that’s a price I feel they will already pay. Putin has drawn up his lists of who to punish and started his air strikes. May as well bleed the bastards dry in the process.

shamans said:
I wonder how many of those Russian soldiers at that moment wanted to do that as well. This is a very odd time to show any sympathy to the oppressor but I'm sure some of those soldiers have a "wtf am I doing here" inside their heart.
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Most of them my friend. Young men caught up in a cycle of violence and rotten luck. Most young men in war are the same, be it Russian, Ukrainian, Israeli, Arab or American. They generally sign up to do the right thing and protect their values. They follow orders and dance the tune of the rich and powerful, many paying with their life.
 
spiriticon said:
So this war is quite unique in the sense that Putin (so far) has tried to minimalise civilian collateral.

In a normal war, women and children are likely to be raped or hurt. Could anyone seriously, as a husband and father, just lay down your arms and surrender with a whimper? No way! There is just no way.
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Its day 1 of the war... Hopefully it doesn't happen but there's already been civilian apartments bombed a too many civilians killed.
 
Carolina Red said:
Not quite as poetic as the original, but damnit I think their balls must have been made of brass.

Reminds me also of the 101st Airborne’s “Nuts!”reply to the Germans at Bastogne.
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agreed, Macaulay had a way with words. My favorite WWII quote (who knows if it’s actually true), and one that is applicable to Ukraine was Abrams quote: “they’ve got us surrounded. The poor bastards.”
 
Any news on that Azov battalion by the way? I mean...some evil feckers of your own might come in handy for the Ukrainians here.
 
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