Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

0161_UNITED said:
Again, I respectfully disagree. It's worse than comparable, the US went into Iraq knowing the consequences would be more than minimal, but Putin did this knowing full well of the consequences. The US and the UK, as well as other allies had preemptively sent in armaments and threatened reprisals. These were not just idle threats of reprisals, but threats of reprisals from the US, EU, and our allies in ANZAC, Japan, S. Korea, etc. and that's without really exercising and twisting their muscles over other countries. This is not a realpolitik rational move, or a game of pre-planned 3D chess. This is an emotional and irrational decision defying the will of the biggest economic and military powers in the world. Furthermore, you cannot underestimate some creativity and unexpected responses of purely the economic and responses alone. Putin lined up his advisors and made them pay fealty. He basically b*tch-slapped the head of the FSB live on Russian TV. It's not a rational movement, let's accept it for what it is.
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You are right. Let me add that Putin probably did not anticipate that Biden will tell everyone that Russia is going to invade. The following is from December 11, 2021.

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden...rible-price-if-it-invades-ukraine-2021-12-11/

For two full months everyone was pleading with him not to invade. And warning about consequences. This was very public and many countries were involved. Putin decided to ignore them all and go into war alone.

Before that, perhaps Putin was planning to create some kind of provocation inside Ukraine, so that he could say that he is not the aggressor, that he is going to defend Russian lives or that he is a liberator. But those plans failed.
 



There goes Chinese neutrality :lol:
 
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Ultimately its the civilians that have to pay. The 18 percent something people living under the poverty line in Russia I doubt they give a feck about Ukraine as a part of Russia, that they are the true Russians type of thing. They just want to live. And now their currency is fecked, soon prices will get more expensive and their country is being more isolated from the world than ever.
 
VorZakone said:
I've seen indications that there are also Chechens fighting on the Ukrainian side. These are the guys who can't stand Kadyrov and his henchmen, so it's quite personal for them to say the least.
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I think Akhmed Zakayev had voiced his willingness to fight for them but I'm not sure if they are fighting there already.
 
Kaush949 said:
Pretty interesting insight

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The more I read, watch, and listen, the more I become convinced that this has absolutely nothing to do with Russia wanting a Soviet or Tsarist Empire (which would be genuinely insane) and everything to do with annexing enough of those countries on its border (ones with high Russian populations) so that NATO membership becomes impossible. What the video above describes in relation to Georgia and so on.

Is that a legitimate premise? No. But is it a pragmatic understanding of what otherwise seems completely irrational? Probably. I'd imagine that's how the US actually view this (echoing Obama and the rest before and after him) rather than the more emotional rhetoric you see now in the heat of the moment/fog of war. Basically, there is no justification for an invasion but there is, in the cold/calculated view of the world as a dominance hierarchy, a frame within which to understand it without in any sense legitimizing it or necessarily even equivocating

RedRonaldo said:
Don't be surprise, the people there are all brainwashed by that, and they all blame US for the invasion, but not the Russian.
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I think that's more for Western consumption than internal Chinese viewers. It's still just a couple of tweets, though, the realpolitik will be in the economic means of assistance (or exploitation) which China is or is not willing to grant Russia.
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Can someone arrange to get Russian soldiers who surrender out of the country and somewhere Putin can't get to them?

Moral doesn't seem strong in their armed forces. If NATO agreed to get them out of Ukraine and get residency elsewhere, it might drive significant disertion.
 
It's proper weird how some folks here consider Putin a mastermind who's taken everything from battle scenarios to economic sanctions into account and prepared for everything. War is uncertain in the best of times but somehow, Putin who's not even managed basic logistics in the first 72hrs right is actually a mastermind for whom everything is planned and accounted for.

Weird as feck.
 
Varun said:
It's proper weird how some folks here consider Putin a mastermind who's taken everything from battle scenarios to economic sanctions into account and prepared for everything. War is uncertain in the best of times but somehow, Putin who's not even managed basic logistics in the first 72hrs right is actually a mastermind for whom everything is planned and accounted for.

Weird as feck.
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I doubt he's some omniscient being who can judge the future, but he and his war cabinet are surely clued in enough to judge the past and estimate the sanctions which have been imposed before as well as those which have been threatened. I think they'll have wargamed the sanctions to a worst possible scenario (including SWIFT) but the rest (the conflict) is still largely beyond anyone's knowledge. That just happens as it happens, you cannot predict how a war will go.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
The more I read, watch, and listen, the more I become convinced that this has absolutely nothing to do with Russia wanting a Soviet or Tsarist Empire (which would be genuinely insane) and everything to do with annexing enough of those countries on its border (ones with high Russian populations) so that NATO membership becomes impossible. What the video above describes in relation to Georgia and so on.

Is that a legitimate premise? No. But is it a pragmatic understanding of what otherwise seems completely irrational? Probably. I'd imagine that's how the US actually view this (echoing Obama and the rest before and after him) rather than the more emotional rhetoric you see now in the heat of the moment/fog of war. Basically, there is no justification for an invasion but there is, in the cold/calculated view of the world as a dominance hierarchy, a frame within which to understand it without in any sense legitimizing it or necessarily even equivocating


I think that's more for Western consumption than internal Chinese viewers. It's still just a couple of tweets, though, the realpolitik will be in the economic means of assistance (or exploitation) which China is or is not willing to grant Russia.
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Well believe me, internal Chinese viewers have grown a very strong national hate on US in recent years, its not hard to understand why, with all the trade war and sanctions going against them during Trumps time, Hong Kong issues, and the blaming on COVID.

Make no mistake, China biggest enemy now is definitely the US, and they simply need Russia to balance out the power with the West.
 
RedRonaldo said:
Well believe me, internal Chinese viewers have grown a very strong national hate on US in recent years, its not hard to understand why, with all the trade war and sanctions going against them during Trumps time.

Make no mistake, China biggest enemy now is definitely the US, and they simply need Russia to balance out the power with the West.
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Yeah, I don't doubt it. China use the US as a kind of bogeyman (similar, to be fair, to the way the US use China) with their state media raising these criticisms continuously.
Kaush949 said:
It's possible that Ukraine were well prepared based on studying the Georgian war. Putin's a one trick pony.
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They've received a lot of Western training, too, so I'm sure they had an idea of what to expect. Plus they've been at war for eight years in the East so they're also battle hardened and used to some Russian methods. The question is whether their preparedness will cancel out the trick. All he has to do, surely, is lay siege to Ukraine and then cut the country in two (to reflect the "republics" and the rest/West). I'd say that is within Russia's capacity as it wouldn't necessarily mean holding Kiev, but just enlarging upon the areas already held.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
I doubt he's some omniscient being who can judge the future, but he and his war cabinet are surely clued in enough to judge the past and estimate the sanctions which have been imposed before as well as those which have been threatened. I think they'll have wargamed the sanctions to a worst possible scenario (including SWIFT) but the rest (the conflict) is still largely beyond anyone's knowledge. That just happens as it happens, you cannot predict how a war will go.
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Of course they'd have known the possible sanctions but it's a totally different thing to know which ones would actually be imposed and be prepared to deal with all of them. The sanctions and how the invasion is going are linked as well and the reason why the longer this goes on, the more fecked Putin is. If he'd managed to get control quickly, he could have got to the negotiations table before the sanctions were put in place and it'd be no surprise if that's what he was banking on as well.

If you drive on the wrong side on a highway, sure you know you may be hit by anything from a bike to a car to a truck but that doesn't mean you're prepared to deal with it when the truck actually ram's you
 
In situations like these, I always wonder what someone like Putin is doing at this exact moment and what his true feelings are. That'd be so interesting to know. How did he sleep? What was his shit like on the bristol stool scale? Questions, questions...
 
Oly Francis said:
At this point i'm almost wishing he gets Dombas so he can pretend it was the plan all along and call it a day (pretty unlikely). This way he won't look like they were defeated and he won't feel the need to escalade violence even more to show he's still a strong leader. This man's ego is collossal, he won't tolerate giving the impression that he didn't achievel what he wanted and that Russia isn't a military superpower anymore (it still is but it's rather small compared to the full forces of OTAN combined).
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Problem is that they aren’t really even doing much on the Donbas front. Kharkiv and Kyiv now appear to be the two main targets.
 
What’s the mood amongst Republican Americans? Is U.S pretty much United in opposing Putin on this or has the Trump project left a significant portion of them brainwashed and pro-Russia (the ultimate ‘double think’).
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
Madness. He has to go, it’s as simple as that. Whatever endgame is in Putin’s plans, it’s going to end for him like it did for Saddam Hussein. There’s no other way.
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Putin is very safe though. Surrounded by yes men and generals, the police state under orders to crush dissenters. And of course Saddam was captured because we invaded Iraq; we won't be invading Russia, that's for certain.

He does need to go, but without revolution in Russia I can't see how.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
Madness. He has to go, it’s as simple as that. Whatever endgame is in Putin’s plans, it’s going to end for him like it did for Saddam Hussein. There’s no other way.
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Be careful of mentioning Saddam name because you will be accused of backing an illegal war by Blair.
 
Pexbo said:

:lol:
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langster said:
Ffs, still playing the same cards. :rolleyes:

But also, let's not forget...



The crowd were chanting Putins name when MTG took the stage at CPAC yesterday too. It's insane.
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U can say what u want but noone can deny that Trump administration was very good at keeping world at peace not starting any war conflict, easing the ones in process and not a single major war broke out in that time.
Maybe if USA would have president who is still breathing this could be resolved before it started.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
What’s the mood amongst Republican Americans? Is U.S pretty much United in opposing Putin on this or has the Trump project left a significant portion of them brainwashed and pro-Russia (the ultimate ‘double think’).
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Some on their hard right support Putin, the hardcore MAGA lot and Trumpers are more likely to take his side, then again so do some tankies on the far left (horseshoe theory?)

Moderate conservatives appear to oppose Putin's war. Fox news' most recent piece from Tucker Carlson is for once quite measured, it blames Putin for the conflict and warns against the danger of escalating to all out war with NATO.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
Putin is very safe though. Surrounded by yes men and generals, the police state under orders to crush dissenters. And of course Saddam was captured because we invaded Iraq; we won't be invading Russia, that's for certain.

He does need to go, but without revolution in Russia I can't see how.
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I'm not so sure he's safe if this all goes tits up. Of course, this all is far from over but it would be a spectacular failure if it does go down the drain, would be hard for anyone to survive the ramifications of that.
 
Jerch said:
U can say what u want but noone can deny that Trump administration was very good at keeping world at peace not starting any war conflict, easing the ones in process and not a single major war broke out in that time.
Maybe if USA would have president who is still breathing this could be resolved before it started.
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Interesting story mate.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
https://rumble.com/vvrd3t-the-war-in-ukraine.html

A pretty cogent summary of US-Russian relations over the past ten or twenty years by Greenwald (personally, haven't paid much attention to him for a long time, but he makes many good points here, even though there's a few points I think he's myopic on, nonetheless worth the watch).
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Greenwald is an utter crank whose spent the last few years shilling for Fox News and the last few months dick riding Tucker Carlson. His entire thing now is faux horseshoe grift.
 
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