Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[spiriticon]

Is anyone else concerned about how much of what we've been hearing so far is contradicted by the Klitschko statement saying that they're surrounded?

Are we being fed information far more optimistic than the reality of the situation?

I think its exactly as it is. They are surrounded on the outskirts and the Russians are going in to raze everything. They are likely to capture Kyiv and many people are going to die. But what next? Thats the question.

The only thing that has failed is the timescale. He expected everything to end quick. They have also used up so much resources just to get to Kyiv, which is a city near the edge of the Belarus border where they started.

 

[sun_tzu]

I'm sure if the Whitehouse makes a clear statement about Taiwan being part of china then xi will respond with sanctions and condemnation on putin

 

[Spoony]

Is anyone else concerned about how much of what we've been hearing so far is contradicted by the Klitschko statement saying that they're surrounded?

Are we being fed information far more optimistic than the reality of the situation?

Possible.

 

[Champ]

Surely it's really hard for a man to set off a vehicle mine by accident?

You do it first then

 

[AjaxNL]

I would recommend people think about the worst, however remote. Where is the best place you can get to with a couple of minutes' notice? Stairwells tend to be some of the strongest bits of any building, any rooms not exterior facing, any basements etc.

I don't support panic buying, but make sure you have some water in case supplies go off. Just fill some bottles from the tap.

Pull yourself together man…

 

[Charlie Foley]

Yeah it's a really shit choice, I have no idea what I would do.

The kids holding bears for comfort is what gets me too. Purely concentrated innocence in human form and they're stuck in the middle of this fecking war.

I saw a photo in a shelter/subway station in I guess Kyiv, of a person holding their dog in the middle of the crowd, the person has their back to the camera but you can see the dog’s face, the poor thing looked so terrified.

there is so much needless suffering caught up in the terrible decisions of such a small group of people. Horrible.

 

[IWat]

Pull yourself together man…

I swear half the people on here can't read.. Read back my 1st sentence.

I think it will be fine. But there is the potential of only a few minutes' notice in Europe of it not being fine anymore. And the panic makes rational thinking harder. It is much better to have a plan before shit hits the fan, this is fundamental shit.

 

[onemanarmy]

Is anyone else concerned about how much of what we've been hearing so far is contradicted by the Klitschko statement saying that they're surrounded?

Are we being fed information far more optimistic than the reality of the situation?

Aren't we all pretty sure Kiev will fall shortly? It just took a lot of Russian resources and lives, much more than expected. And the entire world is rallying against Russia. That's the best possible outcome right now. Ukraine will still suffer losses, and cities will fall. The sheer amount of troops Russia are throwing at this makes it pretty much impossible for Ukraine to beat them. However, keeping control of it, with the economy tanking etc will be pretty much impossible at this point.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Dunno if this has been posted before, but this is from the crowd at the hockey match between Leksands IF and Lulea HF in Sweden yesterday.



Legends.

 

[sglowrider]

Fired for what?

Lying on his CV?

 

[ShoePolish]

They're loving it probably. I'm sure they expected russians to put more of a fight, have Ukraine by now and start dividing NATO apart, but doubt they'll abject to seeing Russia make a mess of this. Maybe they'll start border skirmishes with them soon too?

 

[matt10000]

I fear so. I fear that we are very close to the point of no return which then has only two possibilities: 1) Putin getting killed or 2) nuclear war.

While the first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario. The trouble is that all the other scenarios in the middle might be permanently lost within the next week.

Option2, cant see full scalenatgack as nonwinnwrs and would anyone oneybghat order anyway?

May feel cornered and use tacticL nukes in Ukraine but that would not be in his interest really. His bargaining chips are weaker than he had hoped but split Ukraine maybe way out for now

 

[TMDaines]

Is anyone else concerned about how much of what we've been hearing so far is contradicted by the Klitschko statement saying that they're surrounded?

Are we being fed information far more optimistic than the reality of the situation?

Surrounding a city and taking a city are two different things in the short term.

 

[atkar83]

Ukraine aren't in NATO but yes it would be an absolute travesty. I just hope someone in Putin's circles ends him if he starts down that path.

This. I'm sure there are checkpoints in place in case he ever decides to use the nuclear option. Either a oligarchs or spy or general that didn't agree to taking it that far would probably put a bullet in Putins head

 

[0161_UNITED]

i should be fine in New Orleans, Hurricanes have effectively reduced this place to nothingness anyway, Nuclear Holocaust will be another walk in the park besides who wants to bomb Mardi Gras? Putin is a warmonger but not a party pooper.

Shreveport - Bossier, where I once lived, is more worrisome, since it's home to the 8th Air Force Tactical B-52 Bomber Bomber Wing "Thunder From Above", and an integral part of US nuclear deterrence. As I mentioned in my previous post, it's highly unlikely Putin would initiate any first strike against any NATO targets, this deterrence stuff is a tactic to warn off additional military or humanitarian aid, further NATO deployments to the Baltics and Eastern Europe, and he's probably really not happy about the sanctions.

And again, there are sort of 5 levels of deployments of nuclear weapons, as I understand it.
1) Tactical Deployment against non-NATO or non-Russian aligned targets. Ukraine, unfortunately falls into this category, but again what's the point? Putin would lose everything he wants if he used these weapons against Ukraine.
2) Tactical Maritime: This would be hitting a naval combat groups or submarine(s) to disable or destroy them. Since it's in the ocean, it's basically considered legitimate military targets and the response would need to be appropriate. However, naval combat groups and subs are part of strategic deterrence and there would be both reciprocal conventional and tactical responses on both sides that would escalate.
3) Tactical Legitimate military targets outside the mainland: So NATO bases and forces outside the US, UK and France (like Poland, Estonia, etc.) or Russian forces outside mainland Russia (Kaliningrad, Belarus, Syria)
4) Strategic military targets on the Mainland - NATO submarine bases, military installations, and air force bases in the US, UK and France or mainland Russia. This would most likely result in massive civilian losses.
5) Strategic decapitation and total war strikes: Launching strikes against targets to decapitate the command and control structures and eliminate political leadership (Washington, London, Paris, Canberra, Moscow) and major population centers that are non-military targets (Chicago, New York City, St. Petersburg, and apparently according to some of you, Maidenhead and Slough, etc.)

The point: There is no absolutely way he will use nukes, nor will we. The Russians will ensure he just disappears in the night, and never be seen again, rather than be allowed to make that call. There's no way we do it first, unless we are convinced that he's completely irrational and have hard intelligence that proves he's seriously considering it.

 

[Shakesy]

If Putin was left with two choices, either concede victory to Ukraine or nuclear armageddon, which would he choose? I tell you know, he'd go with the latter.

 

[Cardboard elk]

Only defensive equipment, mind. In other words, what the Germans were laughed at for, though I guess expectations are lower for us. Hopefully we send more than 5000 helmets, at least 6000.

Yes, but this time, all equipment being sent is from a request list from Ukraine. They need body armor, helmets, field medicine equipment etc too, I would not like running around without in jeans and a caps fighting a war. And now other nations can supply with Nasams systems bought from Kongsberg if they want. And they did say we will propably send other stuff too, but we are not so well supplied ourselves so it is limited what we can supply. Also money, humanitarian aid, help with refugees. I would change the law and supply Nasams, javelins and M-72's but we will see. Maybe they will change it.

 

[TMDaines]

I think its exactly as it is. They are surrounded on the outskirts and the Russians are going in to raze everything. They are likely to capture Kyiv and many people are going to die. But what next? Thats the question.

The only thing that has failed is the timescale. He expected everything to end quick.

I don’t see Russian forces razing Kyiv. It’s a pretty important city for Russian identity. Hard to go with the liberation and puppet state narrative with a destroyed Kyiv, but who knows?

 

[Champ]

I think it's clear by now that Putin is acting alone.
Anyone that thinks otherwise is delusional.

 

[VorZakone]

More EU aid:

 

[Port Vale Devil]

I think it will be fine. But there is the potential of only a few minutes' notice in Europe of it not being fine anymore. And the panic makes rational thinking harder. It is much better to have a plan before shit hits the fan, this is fundamental shit.

According to the Caf, Putin is scared to death of catching covid so I doubt he wants to actually die which he most certainly would if he used his nukes. The generals or whoever in the chain of command almost certainly do not want to die and their friends and family to perish.

 

[sun_tzu]

I don’t see Russian forces razing Kyiv. It’s a pretty important city for Russian identity. Hard to go with the liberation and puppet state narrative with a destroyed Kyiv, but who knows?

Kiev was under foreign government control...

Had to be done to free Ukraine from the neo nazi drug addicts undertaking NATO's agenda.

Move the capital back to Kaliningrad?

As the state media will push whatever narrative they want and they will kill or imprison anybody who questions it I think they probably don't care about spinning a new narrative if needed

 

[TMDaines]

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Erm...

How about you drop the bottle, Steve?

feck FIFA. Time for the other seven non-Ukrainian sides in the playoffs to refuse to play.

Right now, all Russian national teams should outright be disqualified from all competitions until further notice. That is the only way to go.

 

[Buster15]

I would recommend people think about the worst, however remote. Where is the best place you can get to with a couple of minutes' notice? Stairwells tend to be some of the strongest bits of any building, any rooms not exterior facing, any basements etc.

I don't support panic buying, but make sure you have some water in case supplies go off. Just fill some bottles from the tap.

By this, I take it that you are living in Kyiv or another place in Ukraine?

 

[Frosty]

The EU has agreed unanimously amongst all member countries to take in Ukrainian refugees for up to three years without asking them to first apply for asylum, the German interior minister says.

 

[spiriticon]

I don’t see Russian forces razing Kyiv. It’s a pretty important city for Russian identity. Hard to go with the liberation and puppet state narrative with a destroyed Kyiv, but who knows?

There is only one reason why you would have tanks, artillery and thermobaric weapons at a city fight. You are not exactly fighting clean door to door combat with that equipment.

 

[Port Vale Devil]

If Putin was left with two choices, either concede victory to Ukraine or nuclear armageddon, which would he choose? I tell you know, he'd go with the latter.

So it’s 50/50 on nuclear Armageddon?

 

[ShoePolish]

There must be a gun pointing at the guy to even spout shit like that, or everyone there in media/politics is a raving lunatic.

 

[Droid_Repairs]

I think it's clear by now that Putin is acting alone.
Anyone that thinks otherwise is delusional.

Incorrect. This is quite a sweeping statement. Lavrov, Medvdev and any number of his generals all have a hand in the invasion of Ukraine, both in its planning and execution.

 

[crappycraperson]

No China is not going to severe ties with Russia or Putin anytime soon. Even their general public is pro Russia : https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/china-russia-ukraine-invasion.html

 

[hellhunter]

There is only one reason why you would have tanks, artillery and thermobaric weapons at a city fight. You are not exactly fighting clean door to door combat with that equipment.

If they're used, and don't just serve as a threat

 

[Shakesy]

So it’s 50/50 on nuclear Armageddon?

No, as others have said - there are safeguards in place to stop one person determining the fate of the world. I'm just saying Putin himself will never concede.

 

[Mickeza]

I think someone has had a word.

 

[TMDaines]

 

[Livvie]

According to the Caf, Putin is scared to death of catching covid so I doubt he wants to actually die which he most certainly would if he used his nukes. The generals or whoever in the chain of command almost certainly do not want to die and their friends and family to perish.

They'll all be in underground bunkers

 

[Varun]

Mental cnut. Wtf

 

[Raoul]

How long is that table

Little does he realize that images like this simply reinforce the suspicion he is increasingly isolated and prone to miscalculation.

 

[Dans]

They're loving it probably. I'm sure they expected russians to put more of a fight, have Ukraine by now and start dividing NATO apart, but doubt they'll abject to seeing Russia make a mess of this. Maybe they'll start border skirmishes with them soon too?

They shouldn't be loving it given that we Europeans are going to have to cut back on buying their tat as money becomes tighter and tighter thanks to COVID and now this.

 

[Buster15]

Shreveport - Bossier, where I once lived, is more worrisome, since it's home to the 8th Air Force Tactical B-52 Bomber Bomber Wing "Thunder From Above", and an integral part of US nuclear deterrence. As I mentioned in my previous post, it's highly unlikely Putin would initiate any first strike against any NATO targets, this deterrence stuff is a tactic to warn off additional military or humanitarian aid, further NATO deployments to the Baltics and Eastern Europe, and he's probably really not happy about the sanctions.

And again, there are sort of 5 levels of deployments of nuclear weapons, as I understand it.
1) Tactical Deployment against non-NATO or non-Russian aligned targets. Ukraine, unfortunately falls into this category, but again what's the point? Putin would lose everything he wants if he used these weapons against Ukraine.
2) Tactical Maritime: This would be hitting a naval combat groups or submarine(s) to disable or destroy them. Since it's in the ocean, it's basically considered legitimate military targets and the response would need to be appropriate. However, naval combat groups and subs are part of strategic deterrence and there would be both reciprocal conventional and tactical responses on both sides that would escalate.
3) Tactical Legitimate military targets outside the mainland: So NATO bases and forces outside the US, UK and France (like Poland, Estonia, etc.) or Russian forces outside mainland Russia (Kaliningrad, Belarus, Syria)
4) Strategic military targets on the Mainland - NATO submarine bases, military installations, and air force bases in the US, UK and France or mainland Russia. This would most likely result in massive civilian losses.
5) Strategic decapitation and total war strikes: Launching strikes against targets to decapitate the command and control structures and eliminate political leadership (Washington, London, Paris, Canberra, Moscow) and major population centers that are non-military targets (Chicago, New York City, St. Petersburg, and apparently according to some of you, Maidenhead and Slough, etc.)

The point: There is no absolutely way he will use nukes, nor will we. The Russians will ensure he just disappears in the night, and never be seen again, rather than be allowed to make that call. There's no way we do it first, unless we are convinced that he's completely irrational and have hard intelligence that proves he's seriously considering it.

Reminds me of the great film Dr Strange love.