Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

stefan92 said:
Especially as they are members of the EU and the EU treaties also make it mandatory for its members to support each other in case of war. It's even more clear than the NATO treaty in that regard.

Whoever goes to war against a single member state will have to face the full EU.
Click to expand...

There’s only France in the EU with a nuclear deterrent. That’s why NATO is where the strength is (adds UK and the US).

The EU as a separate entity isn’t that powerful in a military sense.
 
TheReligion said:
There’s only France in the EU with a nuclear deterrent. That’s why NATO is where the strength is (adds UK and the US).

The EU as a separate entity isn’t that powerful in a military sense.
Click to expand...

I guess a 100b investment by germany might shift things a bit in the next few years.
 


Putin clearly looks fidgety and even embattled. Haven't seen him like this.

This hasn't been as easy for him as he thought it would be.
 
Raoul said:
Click to expand...

There's no way this will end with a total victory for either side. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will give in to all of the other's demands.

The only way out of this is to give Putin a face-saving option that he can repackage as a win - but one that's also mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the West.

Expecting Putin to withdraw forces and admit defeat is unrealistic because he has nothing left to lose right now. And expecting Ukraine to willingly end ambitions of joining the ranks of western Europe are also unrealistic because too much water has passed under the bridge.

The best solution to this mess is for Ukraine's EU application to be rejected, but with promises of non-military trade deals and greater western economic investment. That way, both leaders can have a symbolic victory (although Ukraine's will be much more concrete).

Given that Ukraine seems unlikely to lose at this stage of the war, some kind of pretence to a two-way agreement is the only way to prevent Putin using nukes. As distasteful as it might be to make him look good on some level, saving lives should be the priority.

It wouldn't surprise me if Zelenskyy wrote that application precisely because he knew it would get rejected. It's not like Ukraine meet all of the requirements for EU membership anyway.
 
Why can't people (Putin) learn from history that this isn't the way
 
Winrar said:


Putin clearly looks fidgety and even embattled. Haven't seen him like this.

This hasn't been as easy for him as he thought it would be.
Click to expand...

Putin's a cornered and wounded animal, with nukes for teeth and thermobaric missiles for claws.

He's in flight or fight mode. We need to back off a bit and give him an escape route. Because he's never going to back down from his snarling rhetoric otherwise.
 
VorZakone said:
So Finland's PM announced they will send weapons too? Bold move considering they're not a NATO-member as of this moment.
Click to expand...
Let's face it: if Finland ever asks to join NATO, the application process will take about ten minutes. Same goes for Sweden.
Revan said:
Exactly. Ukraine giving Donbas and Crimea (as in, a Security Council resolution voting it), making a deal with Russia and US/NATO that guarantees their defense (similar to Budapest one) in exchange for their military neutrality, with a clear short path to EU, IMO is the least painful solution.

Not what Ukraine wants, but they get a very good deal considering the current situation, and it gives Putler the ability to sell it home as 'we prevented genocide in Donbas, extended Russia's territory and we will be forever safe with Ukraine never joining NATO).
Click to expand...
My question is: Russia and Putin in particular have shown wanton disregard for such irrelevant details as international treaties or international law so could there be any guarantees of them holding up their end of any prospective deal?
 
Yagami said:
Why can't people (Putin) learn from history that this isn't the way
Click to expand...
Putin wants to write his own history and like every megalomaniac thinks he's special.

You need awareness and humility to learn from history, he's lacking both
 
LARulz said:
I read somewhere that Americans/other non Ukrainians are getting out with less issues though. I dunno, it is something that needs to be addressed or clarified at least
Click to expand...

I would ask what are these countries doing to help their citizens who are stranded there? Usually in times of crisis dipomatic missions do what they can to get their people out.
 
Shell have said they are also pulling out of Russia.

Way things are going, you have to wonder what is coming next with Putin, he is destroying the Russian economy not to mention killing many many lives for no reason on both sides.

He had no endgame or real plan, so what is coming next from him.

Tonight on TV, he looks clearly different than he has previously.

It's a very scary time.
 
Yagami said:
Why can't people (Putin) learn from history that this isn't the way
Click to expand...

Everyone in this planet has one thing and that's called "greedy". Imho, he always feels that Russia has enough power to do anything that he wants and Ukraine is one of his important priority.
 
TheReligion said:
There’s only France in the EU with a nuclear deterrent. That’s why NATO is where the strength is (adds UK and the US).

The EU as a separate entity isn’t that powerful in a military sense.
Click to expand...
True, but as a lot of states are both members of EU and NATO the involved NATO members could invoke the NATO treaty.
 
choccy77 said:
Way things are going, you have to wonder what is coming next with Putin, he is destroying the Russian economy not to mention killing many many lives for no reason on both sides.

He had no endgame or real plan, so what is coming next from him.



It's a very scary time.
Click to expand...

No one can tell what Putin will do next. I will tell a person who can answer this question, his name is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin . It's a joke but true.
 
Dante said:
There's no way this will end with a total victory for either side. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will give in to all of the other's demands.

The only way out of this is to give Putin a face-saving option - but one that's also mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the West.

Expecting Putin to withdraw forces and admit defeat is unrealistic because he has nothing left to lose right now. And expecting Ukraine to willingly end ambitions of joining the ranks of western Europe are also unrealistic because too much water has passed under the bridge.

The best solution to this mess is for Ukraine's EU application to be rejected, but with promises of non-military trade deals and greater western economic investment. That way, both leaders can have a symbolic victory (although Ukraine's will be much more concrete).

Given that Ukraine seems unlikely to lose at this stage of the war, some kind of pretence to a two-way agreement is the only way to prevent Putin using nukes. As distasteful as it might be to make him look good on some level, saving lives should be the priority.

It wouldn't surprise me if Zelenskyy wrote that application precisely because he knew it would get rejected. It's not like Ukraine meet all of the requirements for EU membership anyway.
Click to expand...

There is no face saving option for Putin at this point. He's far too overcommitted and nearing a point where EU and NATO are beginning to see cracks in his hold on power. In his own mind, his only out in all of this will be to take Ukraine by going ultra-violent. Anything else will be considered a weak capitulation involving him ruining the Russian economy while returning from Ukraine empty handed. Also, now that the international community has him in a weakened position, they aren't likely to remove the sanctions until he pays for the damage and destruction in Ukraine and signs an agreement to fund its reconstruction. He of course, isn't going to agree to any of these things and is incentivized to double down on taking Ukraine.
 
Dante said:
Putin's a cornered and wounded animal, with nukes for teeth and thermobaric missiles for claws.

He's in flight or fight mode. We need to back off a bit and give him an escape route. Because he's never going to back down from his snarling rhetoric otherwise.
Click to expand...

Why should he be rewarded in any way? This is a mess of his own doing.
 
Dante said:
There's no way this will end with a total victory for either side. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will give in to all of the other's demands.

The only way out of this is to give Putin a face-saving option that he can repackage as a win - but one that's also mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the West.

Expecting Putin to withdraw forces and admit defeat is unrealistic because he has nothing left to lose right now. And expecting Ukraine to willingly end ambitions of joining the ranks of western Europe are also unrealistic because too much water has passed under the bridge.

The best solution to this mess is for Ukraine's EU application to be rejected, but with promises of non-military trade deals and greater western economic investment. That way, both leaders can have a symbolic victory (although Ukraine's will be much more concrete).

Given that Ukraine seems unlikely to lose at this stage of the war, some kind of pretence to a two-way agreement is the only way to prevent Putin using nukes. As distasteful as it might be to make him look good on some level, saving lives should be the priority.

It wouldn't surprise me if Zelenskyy wrote that application precisely because he knew it would get rejected. It's not like Ukraine meet all of the requirements for EU membership anyway.
Click to expand...
I think you are misjudging how far along we are if you think the West is going to settle for Putin going back to being a peacetime leader again, whilst also denying Ukraine any EU membership in the immediate future. You are on one hand suggesting that Ukraine will not be fully occupied, but then on the other largely giving in to Russia over dictating Ukraine’s future. There is zero chance either Ukraine or the EU/NATO would settle for that outcome unless the war goes badly wrong from here.

The war goal for NATO/EU is now regime change in Russia via the destruction of the Russian economy and a revolt.
 
Raoul said:
There is no face saving option for Putin at this point. He's far too overcommitted and nearing a point where EU and NATO are beginning to see cracks in his hold on power. In his own mind, his only out in all of this will be to take Ukraine by going ultra-violent. Anything else will be considered a weak capitulation involving him ruining the Russian economy while returning from Ukraine empty handed. Also, now that the international community has him in a weakened position, they aren't likely to remove the sanctions until he pays for the damage and destruction in Ukraine and signs an agreement to fund its reconstruction. He of course, isn't going to agree to any of these things and is incentivized to double down on taking Ukraine.
Click to expand...
If that's the strategy the international community wants to take, it'll likely end with nukes. And if there's no face saving option for Putin at this point, it'll likely end with nukes.
 
I find it hard to believe that even a dictator like Putin can just wait things out while his economy tanks and his soldiers are killing and getting killed by their "brothers" across the border. Especially when the hurting will probably immediately stop once they exit Ukraine. It's not like they are defending anything but their pride?!

Raoul said:
There is no face saving option for Putin at this point. He's far too overcommitted and nearing a point where EU and NATO are beginning to see cracks in his hold on power. In his own mind, his only out in all of this will be to take Ukraine by going ultra-violent. Anything else will be considered a weak capitulation involving him ruining the Russian economy while returning from Ukraine empty handed. Also, now that the international community has him in a weakened position, they aren't likely to remove the sanctions until he pays for the damage and destruction in Ukraine and signs an agreement to fund its reconstruction. He of course, isn't going to agree to any of these things and is incentivized to double down on taking Ukraine.
Click to expand...

No one will go that far. Has something like that ever happened without a total military capitulation? If the Russians offered to leave Ukraine, maybe let them pursue integration into the west, in exchange for sanctions being dropped everyone would be relieved for this to be over.
 
General_Elegancia said:
No one can tell what Putin will do next. I will tell a person who can answer this question, his name is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin . It's a joke but true.
Click to expand...
He’s not using Nukes, that’s for sure. All of this Putin is crazy nonsense is propaganda lapped up for some reason. He has spent years laying the groundwork for this. It’s not an act of madness.
it’s really about time we started looking past that bluff
 
maniak said:
I hope so, sometimes people get carried away in these stressful moments.
Click to expand...

It is also a really stupid time to ask for this right now. Zelensky managed to unify western support behind Ukraine but he starts reaching too far here. This application is bound to be denied by several nations, Germany and France first and foremost, which will just lead to cracks in the newfound unity. He says that they deserve a place in the Union but they really don´t quite frankly. If we set aside the point of them being the victims of an unjust war right now (which makes bringing them into the fold pretty much impossible as it would drag the entire EU directly into it) and look at the country before the Russian attack there are serious doubts about their democratic stability (unrest, strife and conflict inside their own borders for years now in the Eastern Ukraine), fight against corruption (Ukraine ranks extremely low in this regard) and economical suitability. There are certain standarts that have to be met before joining the EU to ensure its stability and Ukraine falls short on too many fronts here.

The EU should do everthing in its power besides direct military intervension to bring a swift end to this war and in the aftermath help them rebuild and make use of the rich ressources they have to improve their standart of living and boost their GDP. Give them the outlook of membership in the future and set clear parameters how they can archive that This could a conversation in half a decade but certainly not now.
 
Dante said:
If that's the strategy the international community wants to take, it'll end with nukes. And if there's no face saving option for Putin at this point, it'll end with nukes.
Click to expand...

If they will use nukes, I'm sure, it will be a world war 3 and probably UK and French will participate in this war for sure. There are very low percentages of possibility to happen.
 
cyberman said:
He’s not using Nukes, that’s for sure. All of this Putin is crazy nonsense is propaganda lapped up for some reason. He has spent years laying the groundwork for this. It’s not an act of madness.
it’s really about time we started looking past that bluff
Click to expand...
What does he have to lose? He either wins Ukraine, or he's forcibly deposed by western forces and has his conspiracy theories proven right in the eyes of his supporters.
 
cyberman said:
He’s not using Nukes, that’s for sure. All of this Putin is crazy nonsense is propaganda lapped up for some reason. He has spent years laying the groundwork for this. It’s not an act of madness.
it’s really about time we started looking past that bluff
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's very low percentages of using Nukes . Since Russia economy in this circumstance is aggressively destroyed.
 
US and allies have calculated all the risks and are still pushing against the cnut both financially and militarily. If the maniac starts shelling cities, NATO will intervene. To be honest if Rafale's take off, Sukhoi and Migs are bound to lose. Western fighters are much more advanced technologically.
 
Dante said:
If that's the strategy the international community wants to take, it'll likely end with nukes. And if there's no face saving option for Putin at this point, it'll likely end with nukes.
Click to expand...

it’s much more likely to end the way it does for most autocrats or dictators, being chased out the country, being executed or shooting them selves.
 
Water Melon said:
US and allies have calculated all the risks and are still pushing against the cnut both financially and militarily. If the maniac starts shelling cities, NATO will intervene. To be honest if Rafale's take off, Sukhoi and Migs are bound to lose. Western fighters are much more advanced technologically.
Click to expand...
Sukhois and Migs are losing to other Sukhois and Migs atm, its not only tech but training
 


didn’t know if this was already posted and not sure if it should go in Portuguese football thread. Nice moment from Benfica and the close in of Yaremchuk tearing up got to me.
 
Dante said:
What does he have to lose? He either wins Ukraine, or he's forcibly deposed by western forces and has his conspiracy theories proven right in the eyes of his supporters.
Click to expand...

What do you mean what does he have to lose? A nuclear holocaust and the destruction of human civilization? Why do you think nobody used nukes during the cold war, because they liked each other so much?

We can't 100% say that nukes aren't going to be used, but if they are used then it's a damning indictment of the Russian system that a madman could use them "just because". Because you would have to be truly mad to use them.
 
Imagine calling the west for being liars. He said he's doing this as he doesn't want Nukes on his border yet if he takes Ukraine and the borders change he will still have nukes on his border. Hahahaha.

The man is losing the plot.
 
General_Elegancia said:
If they will use nukes, I'm sure, it will be a world war 3 and probably UK and French will participate in this war for sure. There are very low percentages of possibility to happen.
Click to expand...
It's only a low percentage if the alternative is acceptable to the man with the finger on the button.

Putin's built a cult of personality and his entire foreign policy is predicated on the idea of the west hating Russia. If he pushes it, he either lives to be a legend or dies to be a martyr. It's the easy way out.

Rationality doesn't necessarily mean the other person will do the same thing as you would. It was just as irrational to attempt a land war against Ukraine when you're fighting with decrepit Soviet era tanks.

But I ultimately hope you're right. I personally don't think it's worth the gamble.
 
Charlie Foley said:


didn’t know if this was already posted and not sure if it should go in Portuguese football thread. Nice moment from Benfica and the close in of Yaremchuk tearing up got to me.
Click to expand...


Yeah same, my eyes literally started to water when I saw his lips start to quiver.
 
Dante said:
Because saving the lives of thousands is better than having to massage the ego of one.
Click to expand...

Until the next time he fancies a jolly out in Europe, safe in the knowledge that he’ll ultimately come out of it with what he wants. No, he needs to go I’m afraid. The appeasement party needs to end.
 
Dante said:
What does he have to lose? He either wins Ukraine, or he's forcibly deposed by western forces and has his conspiracy theories proven right in the eyes of his supporters.
Click to expand...
Ffs, his own bloody life. The paranoic idiot sits 10 meters away from his ministers and is shit scared of catching covid. The bunker grandpa wants to live so much and it is clear to see. I expect NATO pilots to get involved before the end of the week, if bombing intensifies
 
You must log in or register to reply here.