China already did that for example.Of course they can still trade with them but you can’t just replace the biggest market in the world. Plus these countries aren’t charities, Russia will not be in a good negotiating position and will be taken advantage of - I don’t see how they generations of Russians don’t go through extreme poverty now unless they withdraw from Ukraine.
I mean, it does depend on the PM's letter that is sealed in a safe on the subs.
It's one of the 1st duties of any new PM on the day they are elected.
Yeah but you still have to ease your way into calling their bluff. For me it’s a clear bluff but the intel might not be so sure either way. Jump in here and there and see what comes backSo if we are not afraid of nuclear war as you say, but we are just sitting here happily watching Ukrainian people get mullered left, right and centre right now, then the West have to ask ourselves some really important moral questions.
fecking hell, what a moment:
This also totally fecks up XI's one belt one road plans.Of course they can still trade with them but you can’t just replace the biggest market in the world. Plus these countries aren’t charities, Russia will not be in a good negotiating position and will be taken advantage of - I don’t see how they generations of Russians don’t go through extreme poverty now unless they withdraw from Ukraine.
You think Bobo has it at the bottom of his to do list? It's possible knowing him!
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe. While this made sense in the sixties, with ICBMs and SCBMs, what does it change? The US has the capability of throwing thousand of nuclear weapons from the US and oceans, so why it is important that they remove them from Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.
Or could it be that Russia really thinks that they can block ICBMs/SCBMs?
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.There are ongoing sanctions in many countries despite regime changes. Putin went too far to wave all those sanctions even if peace with Ukraine is committed.
He has prepared for sanctions - no doubt about that, but their economy would bear serious consequences for years to come. Prepared or not. Everything has its price and he won't be able to maneuver as easily as in the past (for example Crimea).
My best friend is a pharmacist, he says the amount of people coming in for iodine pills these days is just absurd. Lots of people here apparently think Brussels would be one of the first targets on the list as the NATO/EU HQ.I think people's conclusion is that if nukes are a threat, then countries like UK/Poland/Germany/France would be prime targets. We'd probably get the first one though.
What use would they be then? Only a handful of European capitals come into play and no heavyweights (London, Paris, Berlin). They could barely get them to the nearest ones (Riga and Kyiv) if the range is 1.000km from Moscow (or where are they located)?
I think that's especially dangerous rather than a good thing. Surround yourself with people afraid to speak up and a nutcase can do whatever he wants to without any reflection. It'd be great if the Putin regime gets overthrown from inside Russia itself but I don't know enough about their political system to even know if that's possible or not.
Russia and China came to an agreement at least 2 years ago iirc to do their trade in Yuan, effectively ditching the dollar.True, they could increase trade with these nations, but if we are looking at the situation with the current sanctions, it would still be with a devastated ruble making their purchasing power much smaller. There might also be a bit of pressure from US/EU/UK on Brazil and India not to trade with Russia. Further, this would make Russia even more reliant on China, which I don't believe Putin wants - he wants to see Russia and China as equals, which they wouldn't be in that case.
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe. While this made sense in the sixties, with ICBMs and SCBMs, what does it change? The US has the capability of throwing thousand of nuclear weapons from the US and oceans, so why it is important that they remove them from Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.
Or could it be that Russia really thinks that they can block ICBMs/SCBMs?
.I imagine it would be a huge propaganda win internally.
And it would play into their long term strategy of dividing the West: the trajectory of the US Republicans is already casting doubt over the future of Nato. Britain has left the EU, who knows what the strength of the union would be if a similar movement became powerful in France, Germany or maybe Italy?
Imagine Eastern Europe without American nukes around, with a Nato weakened by "America first" and an EU that's struggling internally.
This is why it makes no sense to keep pushing for Kyiv. Putin might be losing it but he cares about Russia as a global force - make no mistake he’s now set them back decades all for what? Putting a pro-Moscow president in place who will get overthrown and kill thousands of Ukrainians in an insurgency (many of whom are Russian speaking and relatives of Russians).China already did that for example.
Also whilst they can sell to the east their natural resources, being eliminated out of the west market will cause additional transportation costs and logistics. They already have huge infrastructures inside pretty much every NATO state with trillions of investments which they need to wave.
Yes Europe will take a hit economically as well, but Russia won't gain anything scrapping an entire market.
That would be a 100% loss of face for the West imo. If it's true that intellegence services deem the nuclear threat low right now (and in the foreseeable future because of repercussions on Russia), I can't see these sanctions be lifted anytime soon as long as Russia has a presence in Ukraine, let alone if they "win" the war there and take it over completely. We just cannot let that happen or go "oh well, let's get on with it".Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe.
fecking hell, what a moment:
So if we are not afraid of nuclear war as you say, but we are just sitting here happily watching Ukrainian people get mullered left, right and centre right now, then the West have to ask ourselves some really important moral questions.
I also find it sceptical that the EU will in fact stop buying gas from Russia, you know since 1/3 of their total gas comes from their. It's not easy to find alternatives and alternatives with the infrastructure to start pumping such a large demand immediately.
Sanctions will have a lot less of an effect as people think on Putin, it will effect the general population of Russia more. Which imo is a double edged sword, either it turns them away from Putin (best case scenario) or they see it as the West effecting their quality of life and they decide to empower him.
Have you see that tweet above. The lady is right. Roman Abramovich is there, his children are there, Putin's children are in Europe too. Do you really believe that other sanctions will be enforced 100% without any loopholes in them?That would be a 100% loss of face for the West imo. If it's true that intellegence services deem the nuclear threat low right now (and in the foreseeable future because of repercussions on Russia), I can't see these sanctions be lifted anytime soon as long as Russia has a presence in Ukraine, let alone if they "win" the war there and take it over completely. We just cannot let that happen or go "oh well, let's get on with it".
Actually I listened to some of it and for once, Johnson didn't lie. He said he cannot help because it risks the safety of the UK which I thought is harsh but honest.The answer was cut off ... but I suspect the answer had nowhere close to the gravitas and power of the question
I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
Do you really believe that other sanctions will be enforced 100% without any loopholes in them?
Russia being restrained against civilians? It depends on what you mean by civilians. People who are standing up and joining their army to protect their homeland, are they considered civilians?I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
Russia has gathered a $630 billion "rainy-day fund". Putin had been preparering himsef for the sanctions.
If the sanctions can really prevent him from accessing a majority of those funds, things will turn bad very quickly. Otherwise the sanctions will first harm the urban population with many western services being cut off, but it will not cause any significant pain for the rural population.
At the end, I think China’s position will be key when it comes to the sanctions effect. Many experts have been saying that without Chinese support, the Russian regime is unlikely to survive a month of sanctions.
Same here. Iodine is out of stock everywhere.My best friend is a pharmacist, he says the amount of people coming in for iodine pills these days is just absurd. Lots of people here apparently think Brussels would be one of the first targets on the list as the NATO/EU HQ.
I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
Russia being restrained against civilians? It depends on what you mean by civilians. People who are standing up and joining their army to protect their homeland, are they considered civilians?
To me his end game is capture as much ground as he can and exercise control over it with pro Russian states/governments. Then sit on the table and try to relax sanctions. He would probably like to push the Ukrainian goverment towards Lviv and keep control over central and East Ukraine for some time. Besides he already encircled it so makes no sense to back down.This is why it makes no sense to keep pushing for Kyiv. Putin might be losing it but he cares about Russia as a global force - make no mistake he’s now set them back decades all for what? Putting a pro-Moscow president in place who will get overthrown and kill thousands of Ukrainians in an insurgency (many of whom are Russian speaking and relatives of Russians).
Forget the added drama of the Ukrainian resistance and Russia looking weak militarily when viewed through a US or Chinese lens, even if things had gone perfectly for Putin and he was now in control it’s so clearly not worth it for Russia.
They will probably tire out with time(or change of regime), sure, but the losses during that time will be huge. It might spark a civil war which would probably be the best case scenario to overturn the current regime.Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.
Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.
When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
Looks like that is steadily not becoming the case though. It’s also very obviously because, rightly or wrongly, it is essentially a European country being invaded by an old enemy who are proving themselves (or rather Putin) every bit as conniving and untrustworthy as the media had suggested he was. A lot of people did care and protest about Afghan but a whole lot more are protesting this war.I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
If they are ineffective even 30% it would be enough for the botox face and his cronies to continue sustait quite a comfortable life.Sanctions don't need to be 100% effective to do their job. Much like vaccination.
Poland is a NATO nation. If Russia declares war on or attacks Poland, WW3 will happen.It is Ukrainians saying that, EU have not said anything I think. Ukrainian Defense said we were giving them all our MIG-29 planes and were allowing them to be flown out of Polish airports. I do not like that one bit considering the one closest to Ukrainian border is literally 8 km from my house.
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.
Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.
When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
If they are ineffective even 30% it would be enough for the botox face and his cronies to continue sustait quite a comfortable life.
Yeah but please surrender because nukes, or whatever. It's quickly going from scary to annoying I realized.Poland is a NATO nation. If Russia declares war on or attacks Poland, WW3 will happen.
I honestly don't know what stops him from taking Poland to be honest, because nukes. At some point the world will have to take the risk with that unfortunately. I don't even know how this can be solved because it's become evident that he is a) going to wave that threat forever, b) NATO/US are treating this seriously (hence no direct intervention in Ukraine). It borderline feels like they are trying to do enough military wise to appease public opinion by sending weapons but just not nearly enough to piss off Vlad.
The reply ... not what she wanted but perhaps realistic (given consequences of such actions)The answer was cut off ... but I suspect the answer had nowhere close to the gravitas and power of the question
$1.4trillion is their entire GDP so $630billion is quite a lot. Their economy was shit before this.isn't 630 billion considering the size of Russia quite peanuts? I mean, our german federal budget for a whole year is around that size and that's always assuming most functions accordingly
No. Because Russia is full of resources as is the Ukranian soil. They have China on their east to avoid full isolation. I am actually surprised that you believe that oligarchs can get rid of putin. They are his pockets/accountants. It is his money basically.And you think losing so much of their wealth wouldn't help get rid of Putin?
