Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
The reply ... not what she wanted but perhaps realistic (given consequences of such actions)

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It's a very emotional moment but the Ukrainians are gonna have to realize a no-fly zone isn't happening. Putin is testing our extreme limits but they're limits for a reason. We shouldn't go over those limits.
 
Russia has announced upcoming air strikes on major communication points in Kyiv (urging civilians to leave near-standing houses, so humane).
 
Gambit said:
This also totally fecks up XI's one belt one road plans.
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speaking of Xi:

Banks drag local stocks down as Singapore imposes sanctions against Russia over Ukraine invasion

what's interesting is:

Bloomberg quoted unnamed sources saying Singapore's top three banks have stopped issuing letters of credit involving Russian energy deals amid uncertainty over the course of sanctions.
Some European banks such as ING, Rabobank, Credit Suisse and Societe Generale and two of China's largest state-owned banks - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China - have also announced a halt to commodities trade financing for Russian companies.
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There is no way the two Chinese banks can do that without Xi's approval.
 
harms said:
Russia has announced upcoming air strikes on major communication points in Kyiv (urging civilians to leave near-standing houses, so humane).
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Just another example of the great leader's restraint.
 
MackRobinson said:
Poland is a NATO nation. If Russia declares war on or attacks Poland, WW3 will happen.
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hypothetically - if trump was in power - or if he ran and won in 2024

would he commit US troops to protect a nato nation?

Part of me thinks he would just talk about a lot of nato nations had not spent their 2% so it shouldn't be up to the USA to bail them out
 
harms said:
Russia has announced upcoming air strikes on major communication points in Kyiv (urging civilians to leave near-standing houses, so humane).
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I feel the real war is just beginning now, with very little air defence or indeed a working military base to take off from this will be carnage.
 
Rightnr said:
Just another example of the great leader's restraint.
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Exactly what was done in the ME numerous times by allies. That's legitimate restraint. Example: Leaflets were dropped on Fallujah telling civilians to leave before it got utterly decimated from the air, from artillery, from everything. Putin has not even reached that level yet.
 
Sarni said:
Yeah but please surrender because nukes, or whatever. It's quickly going from scary to annoying I realized.
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I understand due to to the proximity to Ukraine and Putin's threats, but he literally risks everything (support at home, US war machine actively involved, strikes of Russian soil, etc) if he were to attack Poland. At that point he's selling out everyone in Russia.
 
Water Melon said:
No. Because Russia is full of resources as is the Ukranian soil. They have China on their east to avoid full isolation. I am actually surprised that you believe that oligarchs can get rid of putin. They are his pockets/accountants. It is his money basically.
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They can't get rid of him on their own. Just like sanctions won't get rid of him on their own. The tactic that has the best chance of getting him ousted is using a range of things including punishing the oligarchs and making Russia suffer as much as possible. If Putin is no longer of any use to the Oligarchs either in terms of further enriching themselves (and Putin) or protecting them then their fear of him may well reduce to the point where they help to overthrow him.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
isn't 630 billion considering the size of Russia quite peanuts? I mean, our german federal budget for a whole year is around that size and that's always assuming most functions accordingly
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This is Russia's reserve in foreign currency. It was estimated to 630 billion. You only need it to cover what the country is importing when you can't do it in your own currency. And eventually, pay the debts and interests. Most of the federal budget would be spent locally on other stuff for which you don't need the USD.
 
IWat said:
Exactly what was done in the ME numerous times by allies. That's legitimate restraint. Example: Leaflets were dropped on Fallujah telling civilians to leave before it got utterly decimated from the air, from artillery, from everything. Putin has not even reached that level yet.
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I'm sorry this shit is not comparable. He's an invading force and is literally killing people for his own pride.

This war is Putin's doing, so I won't hear any of this restraint.

None of this was necessary in any way shape or form
 
Russia needs to take its place in the world now and recognise it's another France and UK. If they'd have stopped with this idea of Empire and concentrated on economics for the last 20 years they could be have been well on their way to dominating Europe financially.
 
Rightnr said:
I'm sorry this shit is not comparable. He's an invading force and is literally killing people for his own pride.

This war is Putin's doing, so I won't hear any of this restraint.

None of this was necessary in any way shape or form
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So were we.

I am not saying the war itself is legal, but this is standard from the book stuff. It's perhaps what other posters have said, people haven't had this as close to home before.
 
IWat said:
It does potentially give them more warning, which gives them more time to get their land-based weapons off. It doesn't change the outcome for either side.
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I don't even think that is the case. B2 would be able to fly over Russia, let alone over Poland and Baltics without Russia detecting them.

And B2 can carry dozens of nuclear warheads. And there are a few B2s in the air all the time. And they can go from the US to Moscow without needing to refuel.

So with ICBMs, SLBMs and stealth bombers, I think that keeping nuclear weapons in Europe (or removing them) is purely symbolic. Unless they are tactical nukes, which anyway makes no sense anymore considering how stronger NATO is.
 
For me, if Putin is smart enough, he should end this epic as fast as he can. Negotiation with Zelenskyy shows me that Russia has been hurt a lot due to many factors. A lot of overestimated things has come to Russia in the past few days like protest from Moscow and St.Petersburg, ejecting from Swift and boycotts from EU. I think Putin has underestimated Ukraine for all his life and if the wars is being continue, Russian economics will be overwhelming decline and the worst is Russia will fall apart.
 
Revan said:
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe. While this made sense in the sixties, with ICBMs and SCBMs, what does it change? The US has the capability of throwing thousand of nuclear weapons from the US and oceans, so why it is important that they remove them from Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.

Or could it be that Russia really thinks that they can block ICBMs/SCBMs?
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Posture.
 
General_Elegancia said:
For me, if Putin is smart enough, he should end this epic as fast as he can. Negotiation with Zelenskyy shows me that Russia has been hurt a lot due to many factors. A lot of overestimated things has come to Russia in the past few days like protest from Moscow and St.Petersburg, ejecting from Swift and boycotts from EU. I think Putin has underestimated Ukraine for all his life and if the wars is being continue, Russian economics will be overwhelming de and the worst is Russia will fall apart.
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He won’t retreat after 5 days and I honestly doubt he will retreat at all.
 
Sarni said:
I think people's conclusion is that if nukes are a threat, then countries like UK/Poland/Germany/France would be prime targets. We'd probably get the first one though.
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Which will never happen because it would be the end for Russia if they did that.

Putin is evil but he's not that stupid. He knows he can take Ukraine without severe consequences so he has. He knows he can't launch nukes or they will come back at him and his people ten fold.

There won't be any world war. Real shame that Ukraine will be lost though.
 
Gambit said:
Russia needs to take its place in the world now and recognise it's another France and UK. If they'd have stopped with this idea of Empire and concentrated on economics for the last 20 years they could be have been well on their way to dominating Europe financially.
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Even when the world is normal, I don’t think Russia can dominate European financially.
 
Mike Smalling said:


This is no longer in the consideration phase - they have just publicly announced that they are suspending all container shipments to and from Russia. Couldn't find an updated news story in English though.

Not sure how big a share of Russia's import and export that is, but it must be a huge blow for their economy. Most likely other shipping companies will follow suit.

I don't think Putin has any idea what he has actually done. More and more sanctions from governments and companies will follow. The economy will be in ruins very shortly.
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FedEx & UPS suspended ops yesterday into Russia iirc.
 
Varun said:
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.

Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.

When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
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But with the same logic, he can then ask for Poland, Germany and Alaska or hey nukes. Or well, make him the Emperator of the world, or hey nukes.

My understanding is that no one wants to use the nukes first, but will have no trouble doing a second strike if they first got attacked by nukes. In case of Russia, they even have an automated third strike (likely the US has the same).

So my point is, getting attacked has a higher chance of causing a nuclear war than getting sanctioned. The US/NATO and Russia/Soviet Union essentially were sanctioning each other for 50 years and there were no nukes involved.
 
sun_tzu said:
hypothetically - if trump was in power - or if he ran and won in 2024

would he commit US troops to protect a nato nation?

Part of me thinks he would just talk about a lot of nato nations had not spent their 2% so it shouldn't be up to the USA to bail them out
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No he would have withdrawn from NATO, there's documentation to support this was his plan for a second term.
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
Which will never happen because it would be the end for Russia if they did that.

Putin is evil but he's not that stupid. He knows he can take Ukraine without severe consequences so he has. He knows he can't launch nukes or they will come back at him and his people ten fold.

There won't be any world war. Real shame that Ukraine will be lost though.
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If he launches nukes, they will be monster hands from UK, France and Germany. Oh and probably USA too, I think USA will join the battle for sure if he launches. Probably Russian economics will face enormous economics crisis.
 
General_Elegancia said:
If he launches nukes, they will be monster hands from UK, France and Germany. Oh and probably USA too, I think USA will join the battle for sure if he launches. Probably Russian economics will face enormous economics crisis.
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If there's nuclear war across Europe and the Northern hemisphere (there won't be), I think the economic situation will be the least of our concerns!
 
sport2793 said:
No he would have withdrawn from NATO, there's documentation to support this was his plan for a second term.
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The fact so many people are unaware of how close to a defence disaster NATO came is pretty alarming. The guy had nothing to be afraid of in his second term. Which makes me think we might still be fecked just with a 4-year time lag.
 
Rightnr said:
The fact so many people are unaware to how close to a defence disaster is pretty alarming. The guy had nothing to be afraid of in his second term. Which makes me think we might still be fecked just with a 4-year time lag.
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A 2nd term would've been a stake in the heart of NATO, to where what has happened over the past week would've been left to individual member states to take action.
 
Rightnr said:
I'm sorry this shit is not comparable. He's an invading force and is literally killing people for his own pride.

This war is Putin's doing, so I won't hear any of this restraint.

None of this was necessary in any way shape or form
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Again, I don't think this is the right thread for this kind of talk but this kind of response does annoy me to be honest.

The only thing that is 'not comparable' about this is that this country is in Europe and the refugees fleeing are 'different' from before (I'll let others make their own minds up as to how).

Bombs flattening your city aren't any nicer because the instruction is coming in English/ French vs Russian, or because the context is 'democracy' rather than 'denazification' or because you're brown with black hair, rather than white with blonde hair.

Again, hoping this madness is stopped soon and Putin retreats with his leg between his tails.
 
Raoul said:
A 2nd term would've been a stake in the heart of NATO, to where what has happened over the past week would've been left to individual member states to take action.
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Pretty much. I do think an unintended consequence of both Trump and Putin's actions here though is that the rest of Europe will see both countries as fundamentally unreliable partners/ visibly hostile ones and reclibrate their defence approaches long term accordingly (as Germany have already started doing).
 
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