Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[fergieisold]

Air raid sirens going off in Kyiv.

 

[Simbo]

Everyone is banking on NATO to protect them. We all seem so scared of nuclear war I now seriously doubt whether NATO would even retaliate if it happens.

We are probably more willing to give up the Baltics or Poland than risk nuclear war with Russia.

Bear in mind also, if Putin survives this, he will 100 percent sanction proof his economy for the future.

Take note that despite the Kremlin's nuclear bluster, NATO has only doubled down and increased its support. From hand held arms to fighter jets and now talking about use of airbase in Poland, the EU application is even being considered.

Worldwide support for Ukraine is increasing by the day even, its not just about NATO/US/EU.

I grow more and more convinced that if Russia escalates too much there will be some sort of intervention. The red line is not an attack on NATO, its somewhere before that, just not sure where.

Also 'sanction proofing' his ecomomy is impossible. Well... technically possible I suppose, but he'll be fighting his wars with sticks and stones.

 

[Revan]

hypothetically - if trump was in power - or if he ran and won in 2024

would he commit US troops to protect a nato nation?

Part of me thinks he would just talk about a lot of nato nations had not spent their 2% so it shouldn't be up to the USA to bail them out

UK and France would so. And so would Germany, which might have a formidable army in a few years if they really invest as they said.

Poland is no slouches either. Their army should be stronger than Ukraine's and their air force with dozens of F35 should make the sky very contestable. So considering how shit the Russian army seems to be, I think that Poland is unlikely to fall.

Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics is a bit more problematic. The Baltics in particular, the Russian army should be able to invade them within a day. But this assumes no help from the others. I think that even without a US-led NATO (which in any case would not happen immediately after Trump becomes president), the Europe might be a lot of trouble for Russia.

Give Germany a decade investing 2% of their GDP in the army (in addition to this one-off 100B drop), and their army alone would be stronger than Russia's.

Even if he wins Ukraine, I think that Putin has lost Europe. He made massive investments to divide Europe with his fake news tactic and alt-right support, and in the space of a week that is all gone, with the West being more united than ever, and Germany finally leaving behind their past and aiming to become a military superpower on their own.

 

[led_scholes]

Russia needs to take its place in the world now and recognise it's another France and UK. If they'd have stopped with this idea of Empire and concentrated on economics for the last 20 years they could be have been well on their way to dominating Europe financially.

Agreed. But corruption and nationalism made them an oil-gas economy, while keep spending on military. And now have cut the ties with almost all the Slavic world. I m sure many belarussians (rightly) probably hold Russia responsible for their sutiation. Who has left? Maybe some Serbians still see them as an ally.

 

[Sarni]

If he launches nukes, they will be monster hands from UK, France and Germany. Oh and probably USA too, I think USA will join the battle for sure if he launches. Probably Russian economics will face enormous economics crisis.

There will be no economics left if nukes are in play.

 

[TMDaines]

Even if he wins Ukraine, I think that Putin has lost Europe. He made massive investments to divide Europe with his fake news tactic and alt-right support, and in the space of a week that is all gone, with the West being more united than ever, and Germany finally leaving behind their past and aiming to become a military superpower on their own.

It's the UK I worry about after all this is over: out of the EU and Russian money being in London like no where else. Our financial and business laws just are not setup to provide any sort of transparency or accountability - and you are looking at decades of work to unpick that. The current government, the Conservative party in general, and much of the political elite don't seem to have the appetite to eliminate this Russian influence. They are talking a good game, but we have seen many games spoken well over the years with no subsequent action. If Russia wins this and the EU continue on their new path, you could well see Russian influence in the UK increase, not decrease.

 

[TMDaines]

 

[spiriticon]

Take note that despite the Kremlin's nuclear bluster, NATO has only doubled down and increased its support. From hand held arms to fighter jets and now talking about use of airbase in Poland, the EU application is even being considered.

Worldwide support for Ukraine is increasing by the day even, its not just about NATO/US/EU.

I grow more and more convinced that if Russia escalates too much there will be some sort of intervention. The red line is not an attack on NATO, its somewhere before that, just not sure where.

Also 'sanction proofing' his ecomomy is impossible. Well... technically possible I suppose, but he'll be fighting his wars with sticks and stones.

At the moment, I feel like it's all a bit of muscle flexing in front of the gym mirror by NATO. I only hope there's truly a bit of substance behind the verbose when the shit hits the fan.

Anyway, I don't know if Russia's economy can survive this. It will probably be bad for a few years but if they survive they will eventually adapt and create enough alliances internationally to grow again. The Middle East, East and South America have no beef with Russia, they are probably quite happy to have better trade deals with them.

 

[do.ob]

This war also pushed Europe to look for energy options and independence in the long run, which will gradually make that market a lot more competitive for Russia, even if sanctions are relaxed over time.

In Germany our minister for economic affairs and climate action climate action has announced that his office will be exploring whether or not it makes sense to delay the scheduled withdrawal from coal and nuclear power. Which is quite the statement, considering he's from the green party.
Last time they were part of the government they got dragged into the Afghanistan war and this time around they already had to show willingness to compromise three of their core topics (arms, nuclear energy and coal).

On the other hand I've read that the country's gas reserves are sufficient to last until next winter and they are going to build new terminals to be able to accept deliveries from other countries via ship. So maybe German dependence on Russian gas is less of an issue than first feared.


In general I saw a map that tries to quantify Europe's dependance on Russian gas:



Maybe that could in part explain why Hungary refused to facilitate military shipments into Ukraine.

 

[ShoePolish]

One to keep an eye on. There's couple of russian transmitted recordings in the tweet thread.

 

[Sarni]

In Germany our minister for economic affairs and climate action climate action has announced that his office will be exploring whether or not it makes sense to delay the scheduled withdrawal from coal and nuclear power. Which is quite the statement, considering he's from the green party.
Last time they were part of the government they got dragged into the Afghanistan war and this time around they already had to show willingness to compromise three of their core topics (arms, nuclear energy and coal).

On the other hand I've read that the country's gas reserves are sufficient to last until next winter and they are going to build new terminals to be able to accept deliveries from other countries via ship. So maybe German dependence on Russian gas is less of an issue than first feared.


In general I saw a map that tries to quantify Europe's dependance on Russian gas:



Maybe that could in part explain why Hungary refused to facilitate military shipments into Ukraine.

We will have zero need for their gas from November 2022.

 

[Water Melon]

Take note that despite the Kremlin's nuclear bluster, NATO has only doubled down and increased its support. From hand held arms to fighter jets and now talking about use of airbase in Poland, the EU application is even being considered.

Worldwide support for Ukraine is increasing by the day even, its not just about NATO/US/EU.

I grow more and more convinced that if Russia escalates too much there will be some sort of intervention. The red line is not an attack on NATO, its somewhere before that, just not sure where.

Also 'sanction proofing' his ecomomy is impossible. Well... technically possible I suppose, but he'll be fighting his wars with sticks and stones.

I doubt this will happen.

 

[LDUred]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003, the time of Saddam's rule. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. As a hardline Sunni, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its current rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably far worse than even Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine. Atrocities were happening in the region and would have gone on happening without intervention.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has long been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges a very complex issue. In saying that, I do believe that opposition towards Western intervention often manifests as unwitting tacit support for blood-lust dictators, and their right to hold entire ethnic groups under their anvil.

 

[botond]

One to keep an eye on. There's couple of russian transmitted recordings in the tweet thread.

was about to post this

 

[fergieisold]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. Like Putin, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably even worse than Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges the issue.

Agree with this. It's been frustrating reading the what a about ism stuff all over the internet.

 

[Rightnr]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. Like Putin, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably even worse than Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges the issue.

Thank you. I cannot even be bothered responding to some of these people anymore.

Ukraine was on its way to becoming what their countries could be without conflict but apparently it's the same.

 

[TheReligion]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003, the time of Saddam's rule. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. As a hardline Sunni, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its current rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably far worse than even Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine. Atrocities were happening in the region and would have gone on happening without intervention.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has long been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges the issue.

Good post

 

[Mike Smalling]

Thanks, Michael Owen.

 

[IWat]

It's the UK I worry about after all this is over: out of the EU and Russian money being in London like no where else. Our financial and business laws just are not setup to provide any sort of transparency or accountability - and you are looking at decades of work to unpick that. The current government, the Conservative party in general, and much of the political elite don't seem to have the appetite to eliminate this Russian influence. They are talking a good game, but we have seen many games spoken well over the years with no subsequent action. If Russia wins this and the EU continue on their new path, you could well see Russian influence in the UK increase, not decrease.

It's a bit of a misconception though? I work for a large multinational bank now. The regulatory environment in the UK is one of the toughest, certainly far tougher than anything else in Europe. Ironically it's all been put in by the Tories post-2008.

 

[UncleBob]

feck knows, really.

Imo:

Ukraine not instantly caving in has made this an interesting one, western countries see this as an opportunity to have a proper go at Putin.

From Putins side, there’s no benefit in withdrawing at this stage, so the real question is simply the consequence of the upcoming disaster when they take Kiev and most likely make sure that certain prominent leaders are killed. My guess is that western countries are well aware of this, and that the main hope is that the sanctions will squeeze the Russians to the point where it’s impossible to successfully maintain the propaganda line at home.

It’s easy to turn a blind eye to Syria being bombed to shit, or Yemen for that matter, slightly more complicated with a country on the doorsteps of Europe, where Ukraine have been trying to become a part of NATO and the EU. I don’t think the focus on Ukraine is going to go away anytime soon, neither will the sanctions.

A week ago it seemed unlikely that he’d actually invade the whole country, not to mention that western countries would announce sending large amounts of weapons to help Ukraine against Russia. A lot has changed. Large companies are abandoning Russian investments as if it was the plague. I don’t think it’s completely unrealistic that oil and gas from Russia will take a major hit as well.

The way the stars are currently aligned, i think this push towards Russia will be maintained for a considerable amount of time in a rather large effort to get rid of Putin for good. I also think that politicians with a link to Russia is going to struggle, badly.

So yeah, i still think Putin has gone and fecked up.

 

[11101]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003, the time of Saddam's rule. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. As a hardline Sunni, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its current rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably far worse than even Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine. Atrocities were happening in the region and would have gone on happening without intervention.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has long been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges the issue.

When US forces arrived in Iraq they were greeted with cheers and showered with gifts (mostly cigarettes). A total contrast to Ukrainian OAPs complaining they have to make do with molotov cocktails to throw at the Russians because they're too old to be given guns. That's the biggest difference. Saddam needed to go, Zelensky is loved by the people.

 

[Rightnr]

It's a bit of a misconception though? I work for a large multinational bank now. The regulatory environment in the UK is one of the toughest, certainly far tougher than anything else in Europe. Ironically it's all been put in by the Tories post-2008.

Surprised you'd say that. Regulation in UK banking is only for the normal people.

If you've got money, controls mean jack shit

 

[TMDaines]

It's a bit of a misconception though? I work for a large multinational bank now. The regulatory environment in the UK is one of the toughest, certainly far tougher than anything else in Europe. Ironically it's all been put in by the Tories post-2008.

What about the complete lack of transparency around business ownership and how this aids money laundering? Are you telling me there is nothing to worry about here? I thought there was a reason so many bad faith agents wanted to register businesses in the UK?

 

[stretford_oslo]

So when is this massive troop of russians expected to reach Kyiv?

 

[Spark]

was about to post this

Always thought Russia had an element of being a huge paper tiger (relative to the US/China), but the level of incompetence is staggering. No wonder Putin has gone straight to the nuke card because a full throttle NATO intervention that has the world's blessing (not sure that's ever happened) would no doubt be terrible news for the Russians.

Sadly, it probably means that nukes would then be even more of an issue because Putin's army would be outclassed so it's his only trump card.

 

[IWat]

Surprised you'd say that. Regulation in UK banking is only for the normal people.

If you've got money, controls mean jack shit

I go on calls with Directors etc who are making $$$, the impression I get is the last thing the vast majority want to do is piss off the regulators, there is obviously a selfish reason to that also. It's taken very seriously, at least here.

What about the complete lack of transparency around business ownership and how this aids money laundering? Are you telling me there is nothing to worry about here? I thought there was a reason so many bad faith agents wanted to register businesses in the UK?

Not that there is nothing to worry about. It's far from perfect. But it's got a lot better. I feck colleagues off from other countries with the amount of stuff I need to get from them for UK audits etc.

 

[Mogget]

There are questions over the legalities of wars in Syria and Iraq, but those regions were exceptionally volatile and conflict-ridden anyway. Just as a footnote, there are 250 mass graves in Iraq that are dating from 1979-2003, the time of Saddam's rule. I don't know how that can be blamed upon the West. Anyone who is of the Shiite faith or who is Kurdish will be glad that the world was rid of Saddam. As a hardline Sunni, Saddam did not view them as being Iraqi, so he felt that he could do with them what he wished.

Regardless of how you feel about Ukraine under its current rule, Iraq was a country where in a single year literally tens of thousands of kurds were killed using chemicals, and that is verified by independent human rights groups. I don't know how this can be compared to the situation in the Ukraine, which despite having problems with separatists, has nothing approaching that level of outright genocide of people on ethnic grounds.

Assad was arguably far worse than even Saddam. It was the world's responsibility to get rid of them and had the west done nothing, people still would have died unjustly. Again, this is not comparable to the situation in the Ukraine. Atrocities were happening in the region and would have gone on happening without intervention.

The Ukrainian conflict is an entirely different proposition and is about a hostile invading force taking over a peaceful country that has long been concerned for its safety since Soviet rule broke down.

I really don't think we do ourselves any favours by comparing like-for-like with ME wars. It merely fudges a very complex issue. In saying that, I do believe that opposition towards Western intervention often manifests as unwitting tacit support for blood-lust dictators, and their right to hold entire ethnic groups under their anvil.

That first sentence is absolutely galaxy brain content. You should have just stopped there and saved us from the rest of that post.

 

[Raoul]

So when is this massive troop of russians expected to reach Kyiv?

They should've been there ages ago.

 

[TheReligion]

That first sentence is absolutely galaxy brain content. You should have just stopped there and saved us from the rest of that post.

Counter the post then?

 

[TheReligion]

They should've been there ages ago.

Ran out of fuel

 

[Mihai]

 

[Mogget]

Counter the post then?

I can't believe it even needs countering.

Why were those regions volatile and conflict-ridden? Did that happen in a vacuum? It's the exact same vibes as all the "journalism" we've seen in recent days talking about how we aren't used to seeing wars in "civilised" countries, as if the West had absolutely no part to play in the reason the Middle East is the way it is

 

[McGrathsipan]

So when is this massive troop of russians expected to reach Kyiv?

and what are they looking to achieve?

 

[TheReligion]

It’s a joke but that will become the reality in Russia. I feel for the people there I really do. Visa and Mastercard will no longer work, their money worthless, unable to travel..

What will it take for an uprising?

 

[the_cliff]

Counter the post then?

I'll counter it for him, his whole post is akin to a Russian in Russia right now saying Ukraine is a neo nazi state that prosecutes and kills ethnic Russians so it's ok for Putin to blow it into smithereens.

Western Media/Propaganda tried to legitimize the war in Iraq similar to how Russian Media/propaganda is trying to legitimize theirs...

 

[TheReligion]

I can't believe it even needs countering.

Why were those regions volatile and conflict-ridden? Did that happen in a vacuum?

Rather than asking, if you know the answers, take time and counter the post and explain why? Obviously more beneficial to those not as well versed to understand why he’s so wrong?

 

[Mihai]

It's a bit of a misconception though? I work for a large multinational bank now. The regulatory environment in the UK is one of the toughest, certainly far tougher than anything else in Europe. Ironically it's all been put in by the Tories post-2008.

And still you have things like this, which I bet is only the tip of the iceberg.

HSBC

HSBC's failings cover a period of eight years, from 2010 to 2018, the FCA said.
The regulator said there was "inadequate monitoring of money laundering and terrorist financing scenarios until 2014, and poor risk assessment of "new scenarios" after 2016.

 

[TheReligion]

I'll counter it for him, his whole post is akin to a Russian in Russia right now saying Ukraine is a neo nazi state that prosecutes and kills ethnic Russians so it's ok for Putin to blow it into smithereens.

Western Propaganda tried to legitimize the war in Iraq similar to how Russian propaganda is trying to legitimize theirs...

That’s not countering it.

Explain what he’s wrong about and explain why

 

[Mihai]

It’s a joke but that will become the reality in Russia. I feel for the people there I really do. Visa and Mastercard will no longer work, their money worthless, unable to travel..

What will it take for an uprising?

Yes, of course, a joke.

On a more serious note the Russian aviation issued a statement today that all tourists who are to return to Russia should not expect help and should return with their own means. Add this to current sanctions and the bans of visa and mastercard on russian banks, as you pointed out, and you can see how this can become a major issue.

 

[Pexbo]

I doubt Russia do either, they’re hoping Ukraine start moving civilians away from them and in doing so identify where they are.

They should start moving civvies away from redundant areas.