Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[ShoePolish]

Kyiv live cameras on youtube out.

 

[Zehner]

The narrative of the Russia military as bumbling could simply be that Russia doesn’t want to kill civilians where possible and instead wants to hold Ukraine as peacefully as possible by using its least important and capable military assets - a bit like playing the youth players in a League Cup match, if you will.

I’m starting to feel like a lot of the immediate media from this invasion has essentially just been propaganda, albeit brilliantly coordinated propaganda. Much of it in unverifiable and also aimed at getting an emotional response, but there isn’t really much substance when you take a step back.

I think it’s been designed to try and force an uprising or coup in Russia while there’s a chance to spin such narrative, but it hasn’t (and won’t) worked - that’s why Putin is sat with that insufferable smirk across his face - they’ve planned EXACTLY for these sanctions, they’ll already know their response around it - it’s just that we don’t. They’re multiple steps ahead…

This is a well thought out, long game tactical move from Russia rather than the desperate actions of a weakened dictator imo.

Putin has infiltrated U.S elections, Brexit, funded up much of the far-right brain-washing across Europe and is now invading neighbouring countries while staring down the World.

The reality is that the developed World has been weakened by his meddling and actions over the last 10 years and he will emerge from this more powerful, not less.

The depressing truth is that for all our supposed sophistication, a little Orwellian thug and glorified hitman is probably the single most powerful individual person on Earth.

We should take a look at ourselves in the mirror as a species. If it wasn’t so depressing it’d be comical.

And how do you prepare for such sanctions?

A modern economy can't sustain itself without trade. Life in Russia as it is won't be possible any longer if the sanctions continue. And it wasn't very luxury to begin with. Russia already lacks the money to maintain the forces they have as it seems and that's although they spend much more on the military relatively speaking. If their economy shrinks, so does their military.

All those things don't work in isolation. Everything is connected - and to such a degree that it is questionable if any conflict that risks your trading networks is actually prfoitable. For all it's weaknesses, that's the beauty of the modern world. It connects people from different states not only on an emotional basis and ensures an exchange of cultures and values but also makes their wealth and well being reliant on peace.

Whatever Russia is doing right now in Ukraine, they're actually doing it against their better interest, most likely without even knowing

 

[sglowrider]

China has $350billion invested in Europe to date. I guarantee you they don't want some escalation to some all out war in Europe... For their own self interest.

 

[IWat]

Probably a really stupid question (I was definitely much more in my wheelhouse discussing the pandemic than geopolitics) but is Putin kind of a one man band? If there was a way to somehow take him out is there some other head the ball ready and waiting to take over? Or will the whole house of cards immediately collapse? You’d have to wonder if the quickest way to end this shit show is to assassinate the horrible toad behind it all.

People are suggesting this, but then you have a potential power struggle in a country with thousands of nuclear warheads. It's in itself a scary prospect.

 

[Mihai]

someone needs to sit down with her and explain what that shit actually entails. Why a NFZ, why not just mobilize the entire europe and get it over with . why stop there. Its a half measure that gives you the same outcome as a full blown war. You dont just say well this is a NFZ and automatically planes stop flying . To enforce it requires force, it requires blowing up russian planes and anti aircraft weapons, especially the ones inside of russia.

I am sure she understands. I am also sure you understand that the majority of Ukrainians would welcome a military intervention.

 

[Dans]

My wife and I have been considering moving for around 3 months, currently in Schwabing. Maybe a house on the country side?

That's what we did. Was almost affordable back then.

 

[Andycoleno9]

To carry the bulk of the military burden isn't close to what Europe would have to endure if it came to an escalation and if reports are true that Russia doesn't even have nuclear weapons able to reach US mainland I'm not sure how the affect a full blown war would have on Europe are in any way comparable to what the US would have to fear.

I agree with you second point though.

Russia have missile call Satan which has range of 7000 miles and can't be hit by any counter weapon. Usa has similiar nukes. In one word; Russia can hit every big city in USA and vice versa.

That is why (well, imo) there will never be ww3. All sides know that it is the end for all

 

[Smithy89]

Kyiv live cameras on youtube out.

I had hope Kyiv wouldn't fall at the weekend, i think it's over now. Especially since Ukraine are fighting it on their own.

 

[sun_tzu]

Probably a really stupid question (I was definitely much more in my wheelhouse discussing the pandemic than geopolitics) but is Putin kind of a one man band? If there was a way to somehow take him out is there some other head the ball ready and waiting to take over? Or will the whole house of cards immediately collapse? You’d have to wonder if the quickest way to end this shit show is to assassinate the horrible toad behind it all.

Putin has certainly been centralising power with him - so there would be a vacuum... hard to know who would fill it though (Oligarch, Military, Putin loyalist)

I would say that for example a nato backed oligarch lead plot to take out putin but with the military and a putin loyalist retaining power would probably be the worst possible outcome... so its a risky dice to roll

let alone the complexities of organising such a thing.

 

[TMDaines]

 

[Ramshock]

Just spoke to a Ukrainian colleague again. Really interesting to hear it directly from someone involved. She is in Kyiv, where it is now relatively quiet and safe after a few rough days.

An interesting thing she mentioned, which may be forgotten, is that so many Ukrainians have Russian relatives. She was, for example, no longer speaking to her aunt because she supported Putin and didn't believe any of the reports coming out of Ukraine about the war. It's fully messed up.

Sounds like Americans who support Trump

 

[Dans]

And how do you prepare for such sanctions?

A modern economy can't sustain itself without trade. Life in Russia as it is won't be possible any longer if the sanctions continue. And it wasn't very luxury to begin with. Russia already lacks the money to maintain the forces they have as it seems and that's although they spend much more on the military relatively speaking. If their economy shrinks, so does their military.

All those things don't work in isolation. Everything is connected - and to such a degree that it is questionable if any conflict that risks your trading networks is actually prfoitable. For all it's weaknesses, that's the beauty of the modern world. It connects people from different states not only on an emotional basis and ensures an exchange of cultures and values but also makes their wealth and well being reliant on peace.

Whatever Russia is doing right now in Ukraine, they're actually doing it against their better interest, most likely without even knowing

Thank god for the Oligarchs?

 

[Abraxas]

Probably a really stupid question (I was definitely much more in my wheelhouse discussing the pandemic than geopolitics) but is Putin kind of a one man band? If there was a way to somehow take him out is there some other head the ball ready and waiting to take over? Or will the whole house of cards immediately collapse? You’d have to wonder if the quickest way to end this shit show is to assassinate the horrible toad behind it all.

A video posted last night had a pretty good character portrait on him and the situation in the Kremlin. I don't know how much was fact and how much opinion but the guy seemed to have sources that know Putin. It would seem he's not a total one man band and his power has actually reduced, there are other wealthy and powerful figures within the Kremlin. The way it was put is that he's still the most powerful man in Russia but not to the same extent that he was.

Apparently one of his major fears is that he can't step down as he would not be able to guarantee his own security and financial status. As such there is no succession plan, no procedural institution, and as such the only realistic way for it to come to a head is if he is removed or totally incapable.

 

[Godfather]

It is not hard to imagine, it is virtually certain that Russia can hit the US with thousands of nukes. And vice versa.

Russia have missile call Satan which has range of 7000 miles and can't be hit by any counter weapon. Usa has similiar nukes. In one word; Russia can hit every big city in USA and vice versa.

That is why (well, imo) there will never be ww3. All sides know that it is the end for all

I didn't know they had nuclear weapons that couldnt be "countered" (although countering a rocket that carries a nuke doesn't sound the best of ideas anyway)

 

[harms]

Probably a really stupid question (I was definitely much more in my wheelhouse discussing the pandemic than geopolitics) but is Putin kind of a one man band? If there was a way to somehow take him out is there some other head the ball ready and waiting to take over? Or will the whole house of cards immediately collapse? You’d have to wonder if the quickest way to end this shit show is to assassinate the horrible toad behind it all.

As close to a one-man band as you can get in a modern world.

 

[Gambit]

Sounds like Americans who support Trump

Its exactly what it is and the same tactics used to get them to that state of mind.

 

[DavelinaJolie]

It's worth noting that two years ago I took two weeks holiday at the end of March, by the time I returned to work we were in a pandemic and national lockdown.

I have two weeks holiday booked for the end of the month.

 

[the_cliff]

And how do you prepare for such sanctions?

A modern economy can't sustain itself without trade. Life in Russia as it is won't be possible any longer if the sanctions continue. And it wasn't very luxury to begin with. Russia already lacks the money to maintain the forces they have as it seems and that's although they spend much more on the military relatively speaking. If their economy shrinks, so does their military.

All those things don't work in isolation. Everything is connected - and to such a degree that it is questionable if any conflict that risks your trading networks is actually prfoitable. For all it's weaknesses, that's the beauty of the modern world. It connects people from different states not only on an emotional basis and ensures an exchange of cultures and values but also makes their wealth and well being reliant on peace.

Whatever Russia is doing right now in Ukraine, they're actually doing it against their better interest, most likely without even knowing

You do know the EU is still buying gas from Russia ?

 

[Revan]

I didn't know they had nuclear weapons that couldnt be "countered" (although countering a rocket that carries a nuke doesn't sound the best of ideas anyway)

It actually is. Just that it is extremely hard. Something like if Russia throws an ICBM, the US possibly might intercept it. If it throws a thousands, it won't.

 

[Buster15]

I suppose that's the point of the F35. You need to get incredibly close before their weaknesses are exposed but you can't do that because they can see and fire in all directions, long before you know they are there.

That is what I understand as well. The only negative points I have read about is the very high maintenance man hours per flying hour and the fact that it is single engine. But not aware of any engine reliability problems yet.

 

[tomaldinho1]

China has $350billion invested in Europe to date. I guarantee you they don't want some escalation to some all out war in Europe... For their own self interest.

Yep. One of China’s long term term strategies is essentially making countries in strategic locations indebted to them (Jamaica) or because they are influential (UK, Germany and France historically get the bulk of Chinese investment). It’s interesting Beijing has recently actually started piling money into Poland at the expense of the UK though which gives it an added layer of protection from Russia.

 

[Abraxas]

I didn't know they had nuclear weapons that couldnt be "countered" (although countering a rocket that carries a nuke doesn't sound the best of ideas anyway)

I guess the problem might be that even if you can counter a handful of nukes (which is a technical task in itself), it is probably pretty easy to fire a load of dummies that are going to saturate any defence. Not sure an arsenal like Russia's or the US's have any realistic counter.

 

[11101]

That is what I understand as well. The only negative points I have read about is the very high maintenance man hours per flying hour and the fact that it is single engine. But not aware of any engine reliability problems yet.

It's about average for the USAF fleet in maintenance requirements, which is impressive considering the stealth coatings on the F22 make it comfortably the worst.

 

[Sarni]

It's worth noting that two years ago I took two weeks holiday at the end of March, by the time I returned to work we were in a pandemic and national lockdown.

I have two weeks holiday booked for the end of the month.

I bought my flights and booked holidays in California exactly a week before COVID-19 outbreak in Europe.

I bought the exact same tickets and booked the exact same trip last Monday.

 

[ChaddyP]

I am sure she understands. I am also sure you understand that the majority of Ukrainians would welcome a military intervention.

i doubt this very much. I saw a US congressman advocating for it the other day and i started to question if he was thinking straight. Of course Ukrainians would welcome intervention that doesnt mean that its probably a bad idea at this time

 

[Mihai]

One of the arrows also show troops moving into Transnistria from Odessa.

 

[Spark]

The narrative of the Russia military as bumbling could simply be that Russia doesn’t want to kill civilians where possible and instead wants to hold Ukraine as peacefully as possible by using its least important and capable military assets - a bit like playing the youth players in a League Cup match, if you will.

I’m starting to feel like a lot of the immediate media from this invasion has essentially just been propaganda, albeit brilliantly coordinated propaganda. Much of it in unverifiable and also aimed at getting an emotional response, but there isn’t really much substance when you take a step back.

I think it’s been designed to try and force an uprising or coup in Russia while there’s a chance to spin such narrative, but it hasn’t (and won’t) worked - that’s why Putin is sat with that insufferable smirk across his face - they’ve planned EXACTLY for these sanctions, they’ll already know their response around it - it’s just that we don’t. They’re multiple steps ahead…

This is a well thought out, long game tactical move from Russia rather than the desperate actions of a weakened dictator imo.

Putin has infiltrated U.S elections, Brexit, funded up much of the far-right brain-washing across Europe and is now invading neighbouring countries while staring down the World.

The reality is that the developed World has been weakened by his meddling and actions over the last 10 years and he will emerge from this more powerful, not less.

The depressing truth is that for all our supposed sophistication, a little Orwellian thug and glorified hitman is probably the single most powerful individual person on Earth.

We should take a look at ourselves in the mirror as a species. If it wasn’t so depressing it’d be comical.

I mean, I agree that the vast majority of footage has been incredibly one sided - e.g. we mainly see Russians getting killed, but it's obvious that the Ukrainians have clearly taken significant military losses and watching the civilian suffering is heartbreaking. But feel like you've taken it completely the other way. I actually believe that by invading Ukraine and instigating a global confrontation Putin has actually misstepped massively.

A lot of those alt-right/Brexit/GOP nutters that have been pro-Putin for ages are going to find themselves scrambling for reasons as to why Putin is actually terrible. He's effectively united Europe and NATO, both of which are now eager to expand with Ukraine (EU, although not sure how that'll work under Russian occupation) and Finland/Sweden (NATO). For all his genius, I wonder what his response to that is going to be.

Putin's policies over the last 20 years have forced him into fewer and fewer diplomatic angles. My fear now is that he's just going to threaten nuclear war for anything, thus lowering the threshold for what constitutes a nuclear strike. At some point, he'll actually have nothing left to threaten with and he either declares war on everyone or just sits by and watches an isolated cut off Russia effectively cut off from the rest of the world.

He may well be more powerful at home, but I do think his standing abroad and ability to flex muscles will be diminished after his Ukrainian excursion is finished. The costs involved are insane and, to be honest, he may not even be able to spend the money he's stolen if these sanctions actually start to properly bite.

 

[Godfather]

It actually is. Just that it is extremely hard. Something like if Russia throws an ICBM, the US possibly might intercept it. If it throws a thousands, it won't.

I guess the problem might be that even if you can counter a handful of nukes (which is a technical task in itself), it is probably pretty easy to fire a load of dummies that are going to saturate any defence. Not sure an arsenal like Russia's or the US's have any realistic counter.

Yeah makes sense. Scary thought but this makes me hope even more that the sanctions will lead to a revolt of the russian people against the Putin system before an international escalation, which is why I'm not the biggest fan of sending (NATO) troops yet. I fear this could really make Putin go completely overboard (even more so than now)

 

[antsmithmk]

If Russia and the US ever fought a conventional war, it would be over in days. 40 miles of vehicles, nose to tail ffs.an Apache would eat through them without them knowing it was ever there.

 

[Andycoleno9]

I didn't know they had nuclear weapons that couldnt be "countered" (although countering a rocket that carries a nuke doesn't sound the best of ideas anyway)

Yeah, you can't shoot down hypersonic missiles

 

[Zlatattack]

It's worth noting that two years ago I took two weeks holiday at the end of March, by the time I returned to work we were in a pandemic and national lockdown.

I have two weeks holiday booked for the end of the month.

Please cancel.

 

[MDFC Manager]

Happening Now...
Minutes ago
Russia bombing communication towers in Kyiv

I hope CNN's Clarissa Ward is able to flee safely
God bless the brave people of Ukraine

Love that guy calmly recording the bombing while smoking his cigarette.

 

[Mihai]

 

[Revan]

If Russia and the US ever fought a conventional war, it would be over in days. 40 miles of vehicles, nose to tail ffs.an Apache would eat through them without them knowing it was ever there.

Russia vs 1 Apache -> Apache wins.

 

[Mike Smalling]

One of the arrows also show troops moving into Transnistria from Odessa.

Surprised there are no edits made with a black sharpie.

 

[Maticmaker]

Probably a really stupid question (I was definitely much more in my wheelhouse discussing the pandemic than geopolitics) but is Putin kind of a one man band? If there was a way to somehow take him out is there some other head the ball ready and waiting to take over? Or will the whole house of cards immediately collapse? You’d have to wonder if the quickest way to end this shit show is to assassinate the horrible toad behind it all.

No I don't think it is a stupid question at all, in fact it maybe the only solution!

One way or another you suspect Putin is nearing the end of his reign, he has done everything he can to stay in power and to change Russia back to what it was in the post WW2 period, his personal 'search for the holy grail 'sort of thing is the putting back in place of some sort of new, but in the old style, USSR, if he dies trying, so be it.

Until the Russian people realise that their hitherto hero is now living in a world of his own, where he believes he can do what he wants/ more importantly believes he is entitled to do what he wants, then there is probably little, short of armed conflict involving Nato, ahead.
You have to suspect somewhere deep in his own thought processes, Putin is ashamed of his generations capitulation to Regan's' Star wars' initiative and Russia (which at that time couldn't match it) and in effect 'lost' the cold war. Probably Putin's life's ambition is to restore Russia to her glory days... whatever it takes!

 

[TMDaines]

One of the arrows also show troops moving into Transnistria from Odessa.

People starting to wake up. This isn’t just Ukraine…

 

[spiriticon]

You have GOT to be shitting me

 

[TMDaines]

If the Russians hit Babi Yar…

 

[Sarni]

If Russia and the US ever fought a conventional war, it would be over in days. 40 miles of vehicles, nose to tail ffs.an Apache would eat through them without them knowing it was ever there.

Yeah it would be over quickly, especially if it can to NATO v Russia.