Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Raoul]

A good thread. He's not advocating for nukes, but is advocating that more needs to be done.

Putin has no off ramp at the moment, other than meeting his objectives of taking Ukraine and murdering its leadership, and probably a few hundred thousand Ukrainians along the way.

 

[Suv666]

@Suv666

To add to this, needs must really when it comes to selling something to the average Joe. If Ukrainians dying isn't worth the nuke threat can be sold, this is much easier because it's the Russian civilians at stake.

As i said, it'll be done with the right optics but there's very little chance Russians are thrown to the dogs long term once Putin has what he wants and comes to the negotiations table. Push comes to shove, he'll threaten attacking another nation or nukes again

Putin has miscalculated massively he would have never expected a united response frome NATO and the west would make sure he pays for it. I reckon the US and EU sees this as a golden opportunity to topple Putin and take out Russia from the game.

 

[fergieisold]

the red line is anything that will almost certainly lead to the use of nuclear weapons

Ok, well the other option is for us to sit back and let Putin do whatever he wants whenever he mentions he has nukes.

 

[Dans]

the red line is anything that will almost certainly lead to the use of nuclear weapons

Which essentially means, he calls our bluff and wins every time. Where will he then stop? There aren't enough forces in Europe for him not to be able to do the same in, say, the Baltics. He'll be emboldened if he gets away with this.

 

[TheReligion]

You can't be serious?

They weren’t as harsh from the start but he’s right.

UK also the first to send weapons and soldiers to help train the UA too

 

[ShoePolish]

I wonder how many troops Lukashenko has been order to send in? And is media propaganda just as strong as in Russia? Could end in another uprising, if they suffer severe casualties.

 

[11101]

Maybe. But as you will know, dogfighting is not a standard role nowadays. Both carry BVR missiles and both have AESA radar.

I suppose that's the point of the F35. You need to get incredibly close before their weaknesses are exposed but you can't do that because they can see and fire in all directions, long before you know they are there.

 

[Sarni]

Which essentially means, he calls our bluff and wins every time. Where will he then stop? There aren't enough forces in Europe for him not to be able to do the same in, say, the Baltics? He'll be emboldened if he gets away with this.

Yeah I have the same problem essentially. If he's not stopped in Ukraine it's genuinely only because West is scared of Russian nukes. At that point I don't see why he can't just ask for any piece of land under the threat of nukes. Let him take Poland, Germany, and make sure all of EU and US pay him compensation for their economic crash, we can afford to give him $5trillion a year can't we? Oh and he should have a villa in every country. He has nukes you know.

I don't feel comfortable at all anymore. Feels insane we are facing reality in which 1 person is going to rule the world because nukes. There has to be a limit on how far this can go even if it's not allowing him to virtually destroy the nation of 44 million people.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I suppose that's the point of the F35. You need to get incredibly close before their weaknesses are exposed but you can't do that because they can see and fire in all directions, long before you know they are there.

Pretty much as I understand it.

 

[Dans]

They weren’t as harsh from the start but he’s right.

UK also the first to send weapons and soldiers to help train the UA too

They are not by half harsh enough now. The exemption for the bank - 30 days to "wind up transactions" - it's a joke.

 

[Pintu]

Those were largely containment sanctions. These are far deeper and designed to destroy from within without the need to fire a single shot.

The sanctions imposed on Iraq in the 90s were much worse. Their built to literally starve the Iraqi population to death. Some western countries ended up lifting some of the sanctions and kept pressuring the Clinton administration to appease them.

I think the UK has definitely been one of the frontrunners in imposing sanctions here. I don't get what else people want the gov to do. Barring actual deployment I think they've done basically nearly everything possible.

The UK has been a safe heaven for Putin’s dirty money for decades. BJ has to tackle that issue.

 

[Revan]

This is gonna end badly, I fear. Even if the army does not, the paramilitary mercenary troops that are under Russian army will not have trouble doing massacres.

 

[MUFC OK]

You're looking to leave the UK? A tad dramatic don't you think? The UK is under no threat whatsoever from Putin.

I simply don't agree with that.

 

[VorZakone]

What I don't get about these "we thought we were doing exercises" stories is...were they told they were doing exercises in Ukraine? Or were they suddenly told behind the border that hey this isn't an exercise, you're going to Ukraine. But then why would they be surprised it isn't an exercise when they were literally on Ukrainian ground?

In other words, when they entered Ukraine, did some still think it was an exercise?

 

[IWat]

Strange? This has happened so many times in history.

I stopped reading at " what is approaching is very different, could be like nothing we've ever seen before. " - Short of nukes, and even they have to an extent, there is very little that hasn't been seen.

Who are these people? What is the Foreign Policy Research Institute and why does their "Distinguished Research Fellow" seemingly know nothing?

This guy should join the Caf.

 

[TheReligion]

They are not by half harsh enough now. The exemption for the bank - 30 days to "wind up transactions" - it's a joke.

Agreed, but the point was the UK acted first. The EU is always reactive

Anyway it’s important that now everyone is on the same page with this. Strength in unity

 

[fergieisold]

You're looking to leave the UK? A tad dramatic don't you think? The UK is under no threat whatsoever from Putin.

I wouldn't say the threat is zero. There's certainly potential (although very small) this could escalate.

 

[Raoul]

I wonder how many troops Lukashenko has been order to send in? And is media propaganda just as strong as in Russia? Could end in another uprising, if they suffer severe casualties.

Any uprising in Belarus would probably get crushed very quickly given that Putin already has troops there.

 

[Dans]

Agreed, but the point was the UK acted first. The EU is always reactive

Anyway it’s important that now everyone is on the same page with this. Strength in unity

Boris does it to look good, deflect attention, not to truly help. He didn't do enough to begin with and isn't doing enough now. He's happy the whole corona thing is off the table at the moment.

As for who came first - really? The UK can unilaterally make a decision to do something token. To do something significant takes the EU time because of the need for consensus, a word Boris doesn't know the meaning of unless it's involving himself and anyone funding him or his party.

 

[Bepi]

Agreed, but the point was the UK acted first. The EU is always reactive

Anyway it’s important that now everyone is on the same page with this. Strength in unity

I think this post, all its four statements taken from a number of perspectives, just shows why we as the West are here today… and yes, the UK has been the happy happy pawn in this long running pawns game.

 

[Siorac]

What I don't get about these "we thought we were doing exercises" stories is...were they told they were doing exercises in Ukraine? Or were they suddenly told behind the border that hey this isn't an exercise, you're going to Ukraine. But then why would they be surprised it isn't an exercise when they were literally on Ukrainian ground?

In other words, when they entered Ukraine, did some still think it was an exercise?

Assuming the stories are true: when you enter Ukraine, the ground doesn't turn blue-and-yellow nor do the birds start singing the Ukrainian national anthem. It's perfectly possible to take soldiers across the border without them realising it.

 

[Droid_Repairs]

I think people's conclusion is that if nukes are a threat, then countries like UK/Poland/Germany/France would be prime targets. We'd probably get the first one though.

Just conjecture from me but I reckon it would be the UK first. He's especially pissed off with us at the moment and blamed our foreign secretary when he raised his nuclear alert level.

I think he sees Britain as America's main partner and would love to punish us.

Just hunch though, no science to anything I'm saying.

 

[The Firestarter]

More on Russian logistical problems

What kind of 21st cent army uses CB radios from alibaba for tactical comms . Makes you think about their other capabilities in strategic comms.

 

[stevoc]

This is hyperbolic nonsense, do you see China as some sort of evil empire that is waiting in the aisles to take over the world?

Not the world and evil would not be 100% appropriate but yeah given the chance the CCP would probably start seizing land from other countries around them most likely starting with Taiwan. They've already stealing land from nepal, in a territorial dispute with India, trying to claim islands from Japan and claiming almost the entirety of the South China sea which is International waters their own territory.

 

[cyberman]

This is gonna end badly, I fear. Even if the army does not, the paramilitary mercenary troops that are under Russian army will not have trouble doing massacres.

I was thinking about this today. What’s stopping the same groups from the Ukrainian side jumping in? I’m sure the Ukrainians haven’t been in their own nor will they be from now on. It’s not going to be as simple as reach the middle of Kiev and it’s over.

 

[Sarni]

Just conjecture from me but I reckon it would be the UK first. He's especially pissed off with us at the moment and blamed our foreign secretary when he raised his nuclear alert level.

I think he sees Britain as America's main partner and would love to punish us.

Just hunch though, no science to anything I'm saying.

I reckon he'd launch several at the same time anyway. I just reckon the one to Warsaw would arrive first since it's closest to Russia. Let's not fool ourselves, it wouldn't be one nuke.

 

[Revan]

Just conjecture from me but I reckon it would be the UK first. He's especially pissed off with us at the moment and blamed our foreign secretary when he raised his nuclear alert level.

I think he sees Britain as America's main partner and would love to punish us.

Just hunch though, no science to anything I'm saying.

Poland is nearer and they are the mouthiest of them all.

If it escalated to a full nuclear war, the first strike is gonna have thousands of nuclear warheads in the air immediately. Every major city, airport and military base in the West is going to be hit (and the same for Russia).

In all honesty, if that happens, I hope to die immediately in a quick painless death.

 

[Godfather]

A good thread. He's not advocating for nukes, but is advocating that more needs to be done.

Putin has no off ramp at the moment, other than meeting his objectives of taking Ukraine and murdering its leadership, and probably a few hundred thousand Ukrainians along the way.

Not saying he doesn't have a point, but it's a bit rich that much of the talk about the need for "doing more" is coming from the US. A country that would hardly be affected by a huge war on European ground. Sending NATO troops could eventually lead to a full blown WW, once again mostly fought out on in Europe. Not sure this is the way to go. We are running out on alternatives but I still hope there'll be a solution without NATO getting fully involved.

 

[Revan]

I was thinking about this today. What’s stopping the same groups from the Ukrainian side jumping in? I’m sure the Ukrainians haven’t been in their own nor will they be from now on. It’s not going to be as simple as reach the middle of Kiev and it’s over.

Yep. Coming from a country that suffered massacres, the vast majority of them was done by paramilitary groups.

Some of the people from those groups are members of the Wagner group for example.

 

[IWat]

More on Russian logistical problems

Only just noticed this. Legitimately interesting analysis. Hilarious how behind they are. This is what happens when you focus on maintaining a huge army and a ridiculous amount of kit on a shoestring budget.

 

[Raoul]

Not saying he doesn't have a point, but it's a bit rich that much of the talk about the need for "doing more" is coming from the US. A country that would hardly be affected by a huge war on European ground. Sending NATO troops could eventually lead to a full blown WW, once again mostly fought out on in Europe. Not sure this is the way to go. We are running out on alternatives but I still hope there'll be a solution without NATO getting fully involved.

The US would be just as affected if an escalation were to happen, and would be relied on to carry a bulk of the military burden in responding. There are of course things that can be done that don't involve NATO troops fighting, such as allowing Ukrainian fighters to use eastern European NATO bases to launch attacks on Russian convoys and troops inside Ukraine, much as Putin is using Belarus as as a third party nation from which to fight.

 

[Revan]

You would be surprised at how many Serbs felt the same even at that time. I was 11 in 1999 but clearly remember what my parents and their friends thought.

Unfortunately, the actions of Serbia were dictated by what would be called a vocal minority nowadays. But we all have to leave with the fallout.

Genuinely respect what you say. Unfortunately, most of the Serbian people I know in the West seem to not say the same, which is a bit of a shame.

Agree about your second point. Serbia was as much a victim of Milosevic and his clique as the rest of Yugoslavian countries. A bit of a shame that people like Vucic and Dacic are still in power, but that's a discussion for another thread.

 

[Cardboard elk]

Just conjecture from me but I reckon it would be the UK first. He's especially pissed off with us at the moment and blamed our foreign secretary when he raised his nuclear alert level.

I think he sees Britain as America's main partner and would love to punish us.

Just hunch though, no science to anything I'm saying.

I read here from some expert that a smaller nuke offshore between Denmark and the UK as a "warning" might be a first nuke if a nuke was to be used. Hell I don't know. Scary. I think we should help Ukraine more, if we want the world to change in a better way - then keeping them out of Russias hands have to be accomplished. I got a feeling things have been done and media have not been alerted to that, to make the impact of said help more effective, we will find out when the russians attack Kiev I guess.

 

[Godfather]

Agreed, but the point was the UK acted first. The EU is always reactive

And I hope you know why. Countries like Austria, Germany and Hungrary are very dependent on gas coming from Russia. It's easy for countries like the UK to yell for sanctions that don't affect them.

 

[Raoul]

What kind of 21st cent army uses CB radios from alibaba for tactical comms . Makes you think about their other capabilities in strategic comms.

The same one that uses MREs that expired in 2015 apparently.

 

[TheReligion]

Boris does it to look good, deflect attention, not to truly help. He didn't do enough to begin with and isn't doing enough now. He's happy the whole corona thing is off the table at the moment.

As for who came first - really? The UK can unilaterally make a decision to do something token. To do something significant takes the EU time because of the need for consensus, a word Boris doesn't know the meaning of unless it's involving himself and anyone funding him or his party.

It was significant to send weapons and troops to Ukraine when everyone else was twiddling their thumbs. Germany was sending helmets when it started!

I don’t like Boris but I think the UK has been proactive in this

 

[Sarni]

Poland is nearer and they are the mouthiest of them all.

If it escalated to a full nuclear war, the first strike is gonna have thousands of nuclear warheads in the air immediately. Every major city, airport and military base in the West is going to be hit (and the same for Russia).

In all honesty, if that happens, I hope to die immediately in a quick painless death.

Don't worry yours will be coming 5 minutes later.

I'm not sure Krakow would even be a target and with me living quite far from the center and behind a hill I would probably stay alive for a while.

 

[TheReligion]

And I hope you know why. Countries like Austria, Germany and Hungrary are very dependent on gas coming from Russia. It's easy for countries like the UK to yell for sanctions that don't affect them.

oh I do but they’ve had to get involved anyway so would it have made a difference if they’d done it sooner?

 

[Danny1982]

Those were largely containment sanctions. These are far deeper and designed to destroy from within without the need to fire a single shot.

How? What sanctions have they applied to Russia but didn't apply to Iran for example?

 

[IWat]

It was significant to send weapons and troops to Ukraine when everyone else was twiddling their thumbs. Germany was sending helmets when it started!

I don’t like Boris but I think the UK has been proactive in this

Wouldn't surprise me if the rat is jumping for joy at the fact there is something to distract from his misconduct in a public office.