Putin is definitely a cnut but we should avoid the trap of thinking that all current problems are down to him and his immediate circle of ageing cronies. Whoever comes next in Russia, even if ostensibly more liberal, will still inherit the various, centuries -old neuroses of the Russian state. It’s a mistake we in the West made around the end of the Cold War when we assumed the tensions had been down to Communist ideology when in fact it had instead largely been traditional Russian great power imperial policies in a different guise. It will always be awkward to reach a stable, long-term accommodation with Russia.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Putin is definitely a cnut but we should avoid the trap of thinking that all current problems are down to him and his immediate circle of ageing cronies. Whoever comes next in Russia, even if ostensibly more liberal, will still inherit the various, centuries -old neuroses of the Russian state. It’s a mistake we in the West made around the end of the Cold War when we assumed the tensions had been down to Communist ideology when in fact it had instead largely been traditional Russian great power imperial policies in a different guise. It will always be awkward to reach a stable, long-term accommodation with Russia.
Yes. And if the conflict goes on, that's most likely the next sanction on the way. Still, even without that, it seems Russia's economy is already crippled.
Probably copped a few nice feels on his way out.
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My view on the whole situation for what its worth. The whole thing is about ideologies. Democracy vs dictatorship. Its been like this for years. Nato/EU has pushed east towards Russia for years. First they dissolved the Soviet Union then they took over Czech, Poland etc. Russia could do fk all about it but they managed to secure Belarus as a puppet state and Ukraine (these two countries are the biggest main countries on their border). But then Ukraine's Russian puppet fell to Zelenskyy. This resulted in Ukraine charging Russia a fortune for their gas pipes which resulted in them having to go around and through seabed's (Nordstrom etc). Then Ukraine pushed to join Nato. This happened in 2014. Russia has always been adamant that they would not stand for this on their border. Like the US wouldn't stand for Russia in Cuba. Ukraine also has massive gas reserves which would massively affect their GDP. Zelenskyy starting handing out contracts to BP etc to get the gas because Ukraine cant afford the infrastructure to do it themselves. So Russia response was to take out Georgia and get Crimea. Ukraine responded by cutting off Crimea to water which made Russia have to ship it in which is a logistical nightmare and costs a fortune. There are a million reasons but thats what has culminated in Russia starting this war.
Now this is not a pro Russia viewpoint. They are still a bunch of cnts. My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.
Thats my theory anyway. Everyone needs to chill out and stop building bunkers. Its bad for your mental health. Lets help Ukraine and do what we can but lets keep our sanity while we do it.
Now this is not a pro Russia viewpoint. They are still a bunch of cnts. My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.
Thats my theory anyway. Everyone needs to chill out and stop building bunkers. Its bad for your mental health. Lets help Ukraine and do what we can but lets keep our sanity while we do it.
Evoking the massacre of 33 thousand Jews in an attempt to exterminate an entire people seems... iffy. This is terrible, but this isn't that.
Probably not the place to engage in more debate but the arts, sciences, cultural side of Weimar Germany was well ahead of UK and France, and I would say that there was a lot which was and wasn't done to lead to you know who in Weimar that was not directly connected to Versailles.
I just cannot imagine a situation where Russia retreats, basically returns Crimea to Ukraine (which they have proclaimed as part of Russia for the last 8 years), admit Luzhansk and Donetsk are part of Ukraine and this ends like that. Either there is split and middle ground or this will continue for a long time with millions dying and there being very little left of Ukraine.
source? Nothing on wiki?
Very happy to take this into DMs or another thread to avoid derailing, but bar the USA you could make the same points about France and especially the UK at that point.
If they wanted 'only' that, they wouldn't be invading all of Ukraine. And in any case, sanctions are here to stay. I'd be amazed if European citizens forget this so easily.
On another note, I'd be very curious what happens in the Hungary elections which I think are in April. Orban is one of Putin's buddies and so his campaign and those who run against him will be an indication of how this war will change European politics.
them not joining EU/NATO
I think this is the dream scenario for this to end.
I don't think Russia wants only this much though. If true, then unfair as it is, Ukraine should accept this, or the West pressuring them to accept this. I am afraid though, that it will be far more than this.
I agree with this being the most likely outcome.
I don’t disagree but It’s a very long game, the land returns to Jamaica in 50 year but the hotels will always be Chinese owned. If you think pre covid tourism was 30% of your GDP (per statista) that’s a clear area for China to exert influence over whilst making money if it keeps investing in that sector. Anyway this is the Ukraine/Russia thread but feel free to PM me.
Well this is just speculation by the experts I don’t even know so might be nonsense, but they seem to strongly believe this could end quickly by virtually giving the East Ukraine back to Russia, but also that there is almost zero chance of Ukraine accepting any of that. Ukraine want Crimea, Luzhansk and Donetsk fully back before it ends. I do not see that as feasible in any way without West intervention.
More research required.
Was discussed earlier in this thread. There’s a big Reddit thread where some guy uncovered everything which must have taken him ages but just Google and you’ll find the high level very quickly. Horrible guy.
I don't see how Putin withdraws without getting at least Luzhank and Donetsk, in addition to Ukraine recognising Crimea as part of Russia.
I genuinely think this is by far the best case scenario for Ukraine. The other three options are extremely long guerrilla warfare that will kill from hundreds of thousands to millions of people, nuclear war, or Putin being removed. It is hard to bet on the third one.
What do you think the Holodomor and the Russification of the Ukrainian people during various times of the Soviet Union was? It’s hopefully very unlikely we have get something on the scale of the Holocaust ever again, but we already had Russian thinkpieces on the “Ukrainian question” leaked this week. Putin’s already given his lecture to the Russian people on what he thinks of Ukraine’s right to exist.
People say “never again”, but then we watch various dictators do various things to groups of other people and let it happen.
I just don't see Ukrainians returning to their destroyed cities to live close to Putin governed former Ukrainian areas. He'll end up getting all of the Ukraine.
Agh. I’ve found the Reddit with a ‘newbies start here’ thread
...never a good sign.You know what, I am pretty sure the EU would gladly accept a broad split at this stage, without a bloodbath… the big and loud wake up call is a victory, already: they can regroup, get rid of Russian toxic internal pawns, and organise a stronger union. The EU advanced as a project way more in 4 days than in 20 years, and there is no way back.
Not saying that is the right thing. Just not seeing a better alternative without Putin getting ousted, and there is nothing to suggest that might happen.
So Putin wants to launch nuclear weapons on who exactly. Everyone? Someone needs to put him down before he destroys the whole planet.
I would take a recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk (separatist region only) for a full Russian withdrawal.
I think the economic crush will remove Putin in the near future, but unfortunately not near enough to save Kyiv.
I think the economic crush will remove Putin in the near future, but unfortunately not near enough to save Kyiv.
Enjoying the non-Ukrainians carving up Ukraine here.
The first week of this has shown just how much bullshit is on Twitter and how much is believed. Guilty of it myself. I wouldn’t believe anything you see on there until it’s actually verified.
If the botox face agrees to withdraw, he will want to have sanctions lifted.
Surely someone on the inside takes the fecker out before he can get his finger anywhere near the button. Nuclear war is good for absolutely no one.
As bad as it is, is there a way out short of an all-out war?
The FT are leading that China might try to play mediator. Article is behind a paywall but if you google the title, you can read it.
Was thinking the same myself!
Not sure he wants to, just using it as a bargaining chip to get more in his favour tonagtee tonde escalate. Poker and chess all wrapped into one without a humanitarian thought in his brain
Seems to be quite easy to cut a country in half from your sofas at home and give half of it the guys who just bombed and murdered its people.
If that is true, then the YouTube video somebody posted yesterday was absolutely correct. Take all the gas and oil reserves of Ukraine while maintaining a nice buffer from NATO.
Monday Night Football looks scary this week
QuiteHahaha. I hear you but... one of those things that always happens when it comes to warfare, right? 3rd parties always looking for resolutions by horse trading entire parts of other countries to see if they can find an acceptable settlement.