Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Helder-Carvalho said:
Sines in Portugal has a LNG terminal with enough storage to feed whole europe, it could be doing that now if the french didnt boycotted a pipeline through Pyrenees
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The Iberian peninsula is probably the safest in terms of supply of Gas due to the pipelines in North Africa.

The step pipeline would've been a blessing right now.
 
Stookie said:
If Ukraine falls what does the west do? Just leave it? Declare war? Help them? What a mess. Caused by one person.
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Nothing. There are sanctions that are designed to subvert Putin domestically, but beyond that nothing.

The time to take action would be before Ukraine falls, not after, but there is little appetite for escalating because of Putin's instability.
 
Pintu said:
I don’t think we have the infrastructure for American gas. We need LNG terminals and Germany, Austria, Hungary do not have any terminals. It would take 2 to 3 years to get enough terminals ready and running. This supposing the US produces enough of it to compensate for the import form Russia.
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Italy is planning to buy from Algeria, to restart some of the shutted fossil plants, and to ration energy for non-domestic players aka Draghi willing to be prepared before next Winter. I’m reading a lot of bs about these matters, without any source or legit info, just adding noise. It’s extremely difficult to have this sorted in 24-48-72 hours, yet it is being done much more at EU level than in the last 20 years… which is good… if we all survive vlad’s outburst.
 
Raoul said:
Nothing. There are sanctions that are designed to subvert Putin domestically, but beyond that nothing.

The time to take action would be before Ukraine falls, not after, but there is little appetite for escalating because of Putin's instability.
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Keep the sanctions up yes, but also Nato and the EU will increase their defence spending to a level that Putin could not possibly compete with. Any further military adventures would face being stopped at source. And economically he will be squeezed from both ends. It wouldn't help Ukraine of course, sadly that would have to wait.
 
Bepi said:
Italy is planning to buy from Algeria, to restart some of the shutted fossil plants, and to ration energy for non-domestic players aka Draghi willing to be prepared before next Winter. I’m reading a lot of bs about these matters, without any source or legit info, just adding noise. It’s extremely difficult to have this sorted in 24-48-72 hours, yet it is being done much more at EU level than in the last 20 years… which is good… if we all survive vlad’s outburst.
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Algeria will not be able to even replace 1/50 of the gas that Russia supplies. It could be possible when the pipeline between Nigeria and Algeria is complete but in the near future no way. 95% of Algeria's capability goes to Portugal and Spain and only fills 2/3 of their energy needs. It's a much wider problem than that and like @Enigma_87 mentioned, only Iran could probably feasibly fill such a void in the near future (by near future I mean within 3 years).
 
Ramshock said:
Most likely true, however they havent exactly been running a smooth operation so far.
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The Ukrainian president confirmed this morning that they had drones from Turkey but none of them are weapons, just intelligence only.
 
Stookie said:
If Ukraine falls what does the west do? Just leave it? Declare war? Help them? What a mess. Caused by one person.
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Nothing, Ukraine is our Jesus dying for the sins of the rest... They will suffer but they will exhaust Putin and possibly end up costing his regime its grip on power over there.
 
Raoul said:
Tragic





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If those allegations are true, then I swear that Russian officers will not get a single tear from me if either Ukrainian forces or even Russian grunts end up executing those bastards on the spot. Such behavior from officers would be no different from what SS officers did, which is a major reason why so many SS officers were executed after they got caught in the final months of WW2.
 
the_cliff said:
Algeria will not be able to even replace 1/50 of the gas that Russia supplies. It could be possible when the pipeline between Nigeria and Algeria is complete but in the near future no way. 95% of Algeria's capability goes to Portugal and Spain and only fills 2/3 of their energy needs. It's a much wider problem than that and like @Enigma_87 mentioned, only Iran could probably feasibly fill such a void in the near future (by near future I mean within 3 years).
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Yeah, of course it is going to be essentially ration, at the end of the day… which will also test local populists about their sustainable negative growth pipedream, once they freeze with only a candle lit. More seriously, I read Italy wastes about 20% energy because of old buildings and inefficient practices, so that it would be another legit task for technocratic modernisation.
 
the_cliff said:
Algeria will not be able to even replace 1/50 of the gas that Russia supplies. It could be possible when the pipeline between Nigeria and Algeria is complete but in the near future no way. 95% of Algeria's capability goes to Portugal and Spain and only fills 2/3 of their energy needs.
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Bepi said:
Yeah, of course it is going to be essentially ration, at the end of the day… which will also test local populists about their sustainable negative growth pipedream, once they freeze with only a candle lit. More seriously, I read Italy wastes about 20% energy because of old buildings and inefficient practices, so that it would be another legit task for technocratic modernisation.
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I just googled it. According to Corriere, Italy has already spoken to Algeria and got reassurance that they can increase their gas production, they are already exporting some to Italy via "Transmed".
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
If those allegations are true, then I swear that Russian officers will not get a single tear from me if either Ukrainian forces or even Russian grunts end up executing those bastards on the spot. Such behavior from officers would be no different from what SS officers did, which is a major reason why so many SS officers were executed after they got caught in the final months of WW2.
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This is just one case. Rest assured there are thousands more - many involving young kids being forced to fight and situations where their parents don't know where they are. The bit about officers executing wounded soldiers is pure insanity.
 
Dan600 said:
Slovenian Embassy struck by missile

So is this a direct attack on a NATO member, embassies count as the nation’s soil right? Deliberate escalation, terrible accuracy? Hmmm..
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If the US administration wants to go to war, this can be considered an escalation. But until then, I think Putin can attack a NATO base in Poland, and it will be deemed a minor incident, barely worthy of a limited riposte.
 
Putin attacking a Nato Embassy, surely would trigger some clause that would allow Nato to take some form of military action you would think, however, it wouldn't surprise me, if there are some conditions in War that make certain allowances for such incidents perhaps.

I'm sure it would take a lot more, to make Nato even twitch a toe to taking any direct action.
 
Pintu said:
I just googled it. According to Corriere, Italy has already spoken to Algeria and got reassurance that they can increase their gas production, they are already exporting some to Italy via "Transmed".
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The pipeline is there, but Algeria has a lot of problems - political, economic and workload. Due to the pandemic the domestic consumption rose and this would offset the export a bit. On top of that you have riots, strikes and corruption all throughout the country.

Even if those problems are solved you also have the conflict with Morocco, which at the moment is at a state of a cold war.
 
Pintu said:
If the US administration wants to go to war, this can be considered an escalation. But until then, I think Putin can attack a NATO base in Poland, and it will be deemed a minor incident, barely worthy of a limited riposte.
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I very much doubt that.
 
Raoul said:
The only significant difference between yesterday and today is the Russians are starting to use airpower to drop more destructive ordinance on buildings in civilian neighborhoods.
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Ah. So wouldn't be surprising if they go further soon like in Syria
 
Dan600 said:
Slovenian Embassy struck by missile

So is this a direct attack on a NATO member, embassies count as the nation’s soil right? Deliberate escalation, terrible accuracy? Hmmm..
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It's a consulate, not an embassy, so it has slightly different status. Either way, it won't lead to WWIII. Russia's "precision" weapons aren't very accurate (as evidenced in pictures of airport bombings with craters everywhere but the runway).

The US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War. It was far more useful to the CCP as a means of driving anti-American sentiment among the Chinese people than it was a hindrance to Sino-American relations.
 
Pintu said:
I certainly exaggerated that. But I'm not convinced that the decision to go to war with Russia if it is made will be caused by one bombardment.
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It might not be the final trigger for a nuclear WW3 but you can bet there would be a significant response.
 
Shane88 said:
That's the one I meant. Must be off the top of r/all now.
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I really appreciate that redcafe doesn't allow posting of dead bodies or overly violent stuff. If you want to see that stuff you can easily find it out there, but I have no interest in seeing it. Some people can go overboard with gruesome videos and photos, its not a minefield I want to walk through. This place gets just the info and discussion from all of you guys/gals which is perfect.
 
Conversation hosted by Erin Bernett on CNN about whether of not Putin is uncharacteristically unhinged, lost his mind, off the rails, as most analysts say. I am leaning towards the argument of her current guest Dr Kenneth Dekleva who just went down a list of nasty deeds by Putin. The man has always been insane, but he's working with bad intel assessments.
 
Sir Matt said:
It's a consulate, not an embassy, so it has slightly different status. Either way, it won't lead to WWIII. Russia's "precision" weapons aren't very accurate (as evidenced in pictures of airport bombings with craters everywhere but the runway).

The US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War. It was far more useful to the CCP as a means of driving anti-American sentiment among the Chinese people than it was a hindrance to Sino-American relations.
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I'm pretty sure not even full embassies are considered sovereign soil, so it wouldn't trigger the clause in any case.
 
atkar83 said:
I really appreciate that redcafe doesn't allow posting of dead bodies or overly violent stuff. If you want to see that stuff you can easily find it out there, but I have no interest in seeing it. Some people can go overboard with gruesome videos and photos, its not a minefield I want to walk through. This place gets just the info and discussion from all of you guys/gals which is perfect.
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That was our thinking although we didn't take the decision lightly as there is a danger that not showing such videos makes what is going on seem less serious than it is.
 
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I’d take Putin’s words, about liberating the Ukrainian people and denazifying the country, say “yep we agree with you, we want to help in your mission”, then I’d invade Ukraine from the west, power to Kyiv because the Ukrainian forces would just capitulate (wink wink), and then sit all my forces in Kyiv. Welcome the Russians when they get there, “we’re allies, here to help your mission”, and essentially secure the sovereignty of Ukraine for the time being and stop the killing. Send them in as UN peacekeepers. Artful approach that should’ve happened from the start.

Now we just have the hammer this cnut with sanctions, but at what point when the loss of life reaches terrifying levels, do we actually intervene militarily?

The smart play is to throttle them economically, which means shutting off the purchase of all oil and gas, and forcing regime change - which may take years; but a big part of me wants us to call this guys nuclear bluff and just bomb all his forces into oblivion.

Whatever happens, the only way this can now end - whether next week, next month, next year or in 2-3 years, is with the effective elimination of Russia as a global superpower. That means nuclear de-armament, and we absolutely shouldn’t take our foot off their throat until that happens. No matter how long it takes and what the economic pain is for the global economy.
 
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Raoul said:
Nothing. There are sanctions that are designed to subvert Putin domestically, but beyond that nothing.

The time to take action would be before Ukraine falls, not after, but there is little appetite for escalating because of Putin's instability.
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Presumably other countries could and would also covertly fund and facilitate insurgency if/when Ukraine fell?
 
the_cliff said:
Algeria will not be able to even replace 1/50 of the gas that Russia supplies. It could be possible when the pipeline between Nigeria and Algeria is complete but in the near future no way. 95% of Algeria's capability goes to Portugal and Spain and only fills 2/3 of their energy needs. It's a much wider problem than that and like @Enigma_87 mentioned, only Iran could probably feasibly fill such a void in the near future (by near future I mean within 3 years).
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This is news!
 
atkar83 said:
I really appreciate that redcafe doesn't allow posting of dead bodies or overly violent stuff. If you want to see that stuff you can easily find it out there, but I have no interest in seeing it. Some people can go overboard with gruesome videos and photos, its not a minefield I want to walk through. This place gets just the info and discussion from all of you guys/gals which is perfect.
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Agreed 100%. Historically, threads like this are much more productive without the gratuitous imagery of dead bodies, which is why there's a thread banner at the bottom of each page.
 
atkar83 said:
I really appreciate that redcafe doesn't allow posting of dead bodies or overly violent stuff. If you want to see that stuff you can easily find it out there, but I have no interest in seeing it. Some people can go overboard with gruesome videos and photos, its not a minefield I want to walk through. This place gets just the info and discussion from all of you guys/gals which is perfect.
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I don't think it's a case of 'wanting' to see that stuff. It should however most definitely be seen as that's the harsh reality of war which no doubt is lost on a few on here and the wider public. No point sugar coating it or burying one's head in the sand.
 
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